82brewcrew82

D'Arnaud/Contreras VS Narvaez/Pina I have to look at the catching as a Unit but no matter how you slice it D'Arnaud hasn't been very good offensively. Both Narvaez and Pina have been better and I believe we have the better defensive unit as well. EDGE: It think this is advantage Brewers both on offense and defense. Again, probably not decisive, but clear. Freeman VS Escobar/Tellez In this case, this is a pretty decisive advantage for the Braves on offense and defense. Using Escobar there closes the gap some but defense will suffer for it. Just not much to say other than the Braves are better here. Edge: Pretty clearly the Braves Albies VS Wong Albies is the bigger power threat with Wong being more of a table setter with some pop. Albies slugs more, Wong gets on base more. At the end of the day, the OPS+ is identical for both players. I believe Wong provides the better defense but this seems like a push to me. EDGE: Even. I guess it just depends on what you like in a player but the numbers say this is even. Maybe a very slight edge due to defense for the Brewers but this looks even to me. Swanson VS Adames Even considering his crappy start with the Rays, Adames has just been the better hitter and by a good margin. Adames matches Swanson for power but Adames is clearly the better overall hitter and I believe Adames is better with the glove as well. Edge: Brewers. Like first base with the Braves, I think this is a pretty decisive edge for the Brewers. Riley VS Escobar/Urias Riley has been every bit as good as Freeman which makes it hard to pitch around Freeman/Albies. From what I have seen Riley is good enough with the glove as well. Urias is underrated with the bat in my opinion and long with Escobar, keeps this close but Riley is better than our options. EDGE: Braves. I do think this falls into the marginal edge catagory but I do think Riley has been better overall. Rosario, Duvall, Soler VS Yelich, Cain, Garcia Duvall hits homers but doesn't do much else with the bat and that sub .300 OBP says a lot and he doesn't offer much with the glove. Soler and Rosario have been better as Braves than their previous teams but overall are right on par with Yelich and Cain. Garcia is clearly the best player of the bunch and I think the Brewers are significantly better as a unit than the Braves are. EDGE: Again, not a huge difference but I think the Brewers have a slight edge here. When you consider offense, defense and depth, The Brewers unit is just better. Bench EDGE: Brewers. Peterson, Vogelbach and Taylor are as good or better than what the Braves have on their bench and then either or Narvaez or Pina will be available as well. The Brewers have positional flexibility, speed, defense and power off the bench. i think this is an advantage for the Crew.

Hader, Ashby, Boxberger, Houser, Strickland, Cousins, Suter Smith, Jackson, Minter Matzek, Martin Rodriguez I'm not even sure who the sixth guy would be for the Braves. None of the options are all that good. Smith is a good pitcher but he is not a lock down closer. When looking at Hader V Smith, it just isn't close. This was the most surprising area for me when looking at these two teams. The Braves pen is good and the loss of Williams makes this closer but the Brewers pen is still deeper, more versatile and has the better potential to be dominant. The Braves pen just isn't as dominant as I thought they were. EDGE: Even without Williams I think the Brewers have the better pen. It the later in the game, the more that advantage swings toward the Brewers.

Woodruff VS Morton Burnes VS Fried Peralta VS Anderson Lauer VS Ynoa Woodruff and Morton are a pretty even match up. Digging into the stats, Woodruff has been the better pitcher but not by much. Fried has been every bit as good as Burnes over the second half of the season but that doesn't mean you get to discount the first half. Again, pretty even but Burnes has been the better pitcher over the longer haul. Anderson is a nice pitcher but his FIP sits at over 4 and a full point higher than Freddy's. Freddy is just the better pitcher by a decent margin and holds an edge in just about every statistical catagory. Lauer and Ynoa are pretty close as well. In the end I think Lauer is the better pitcher hear but not by much. Maybe Houser ends up on this spot but Lauer has been better and I think Houser is the better option out of the pen. I don't think by evaluation would change much if Houser did get the nod. EDGE: I think the Brewers have the edge in just about every match-up. I do not think that edge is decisive but I do think it is clear. Of course this is the playoffs so I wouldn't expect there to be truly decisive edges between teams at this point so having advantages at the margins is important.

Well, we are most likely losing to Atlanta in the first round and have no shot against LA or STL so that seems like a bit of a stretch.

The M's and Angels have been fun tonight. If everything holds, tomorrow is going to be interesting for those AL wildcard slots.

very true. hoping the week off helps him reset. I meant that Garcia has been a good hitter that hits some homers. Urias is a solid hitter who hits less homers. Escobar is a mediocre hitter that has some power. Strangely he's performed better with us than he did with AZ, and he hasn't seemed that great with us. I still miss Moose at 3b. I don't think of Garcia, Adames, Escobar, Tellez, Vogey, or Urias as major power threats. They CAN hit a homer. The team can occasionally hit 2 in a game. But the Dodgers have a lineup capable of hitting 5 in a game on any given day. Same with the Cardinals. The Brewers don't. THe Cardinals have 3 more HRs than the Brewers this season. And the Brewers have scored about 35 more runs.

I tend to have more angst about this than I do about the pitching being bad but I have to remind myself that they really haven't played their best offense day in and day out for about two weeks now. Hard to judge.

My point as I have said earlier is that Urias's stats are not that much inferior to anybody's in terms of ERA, etc. But his W-L record is eye-popping ... When a pitcher has an eye-popping 20-3 record and all his other stats are near the best of the rest, he should be in prime consideration for the Cy Young award. That is my point. I know you disagree ... but, that's where I'm at. I get where you are coming from but if you start digging into things like ERA+, FIP and even WHIP, Burnes has been far better and historically so (I'm guessing Scherzer and Buehler would as well). Plenty has been written on that. If you chose to look at ERA and wins to make those assessments then have at it but lets not pretend that doing so is not a failure to consider all of the data.

Didn't the telecast show the other night that they've had a winning record against left handed starters over the last two or three weeks. Maybe it doesn't need to be fixed. Price doesn't seem to be an issue from the left side.

That I agree with you on.

Didn't the telecast show the other night that they've had a winning record against left handed starters over the last two or three weeks. Maybe it doesn't need to be fixed.

So when they lose a bunch in a row and then win a bunch in a row right after, is that not turning it on or off? Not that I believe that is how it works of that there is even a switch that needs to be flipped.

I think they were playing way worse in May.

I wasn't really trying to change your mind. Maybe moreso was just trying to realistically explain why he isn't a legit Cy Young candidate. You of course are more than welcome to hold the opposite opinion, though. Heck, I have plenty of baseball opinions that aren't really based in reality, too. Thank you for not being snide. Oh come on. Like you weren't in a couple of those posts. Please.

Ultimate "take one for the team".....that he's been on for all of one day.

Fair enough. Agree to disagree.

Not to mention the objective data that says there is zero correlation between how you are playing going into the playoffs and your playoff performance. That study has been posted in several threads. If some folks want to be pessimistic, then do so. State it and move on. No need to continually beat the dead horse that is your personal pessimism.

Why? I don't think that is close to obvious. The responses you got point out how arbitrary wins can be whether it be a starter or a reliever. Sometimes it's nothing more than a scoring decision. Wins only matter in the team sense. A reliever can luck his way into wins far more easily than a starter. Isn't that obvious? Urias gets like 7 runs of support per start. Buehler does not. You don't think Buehler would have more wins than Urias if that were reverseds? They play for the same team with the same offense. How is that not luck?

Why? I don't think that is close to obvious. The responses you got point out how arbitrary wins can be whether it be a starter or a reliever. Sometimes it's nothing more than a scoring decision. Wins only matter in the team sense.

I did see Pedro Martinez on mlb network talking about, not brewers specifically, but this type of situation. He was adamant about pitchers should be pitching. Not taking a big break I’m more conservative and I’m with counsell in giving our power arms a break. But we will see I will say this though. For the first time I would be disappointed if we don’t win the first series. Everyone will be disappointed if we don't win the first series but there are many, many reasons for why that would happen. The starters could pitch great and still lose that series.

Based on the argument being given, Suter is the better pitcher.

Or they could never lose a game ever. What a bunch of chokers the giants are Who said anything about choking except you? Why is it the Brewers responsibility to make sure the Giants win their division? If the roles were reversed I'd expect the Giants to be doing the same thing.

Good point, but that goes for the other team too then.

100% correct.

C-ya Friday. If you think this team is gonna flip a switch on Friday I have swamp land for sale in AZ. I don't think they need to flip a switch so agree to disagree.