82brewcrew82
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Everything posted by 82brewcrew82
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Sure but hasn't that been the task all year? Nobody went into this season expecting the division to be anything other than mediocre and they seem to be living up to that, just not the teams we thought. The only real surprise is just how bad the Cardinals have been.
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Its a one run differential. Statistically meaningless so yes. Run differential is a nice tool but taken by itself lacks context. Either way, we don't go back a play the games over or get some special adjustment based on run differential. Teams over and under perform run differential every year to a greater degree than one single run. So, all that matters here is wins and losses moving forward. Your fangraphs graph seems to suggest they think the Brewers will outperform the Cardinals the rest of the way.
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The 2011 Cardinals have nothing to do with the 2023 Cardinals. In 2023, the Cardinals have not been a good team at any point and that is reflected in their playoff chances which are a statistical coin toss with those of the Pirates and Reds that you seem to have written off.
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Yeah, sorry. Not a believer in baseball gods. I lean more toward facts.
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But that Cardinal team was never a "bad" team. This one is, which is all that matter for 2023.
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I don't know what you are looking at but that graph you posted has the Cardinals at 12.1 for the playoffs and 11.1 for the division. Those number are...not good. Sure, not impossible, but historically unlikely, which is all anyone on this board is saying.
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Never mind Atlanta's complete collapse but the reality is that nothing that happened in 2011 has any bearing on anything happening in 2023.
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In looking at that graph, faith is a strong word for the chances given to any of those teams. It would seem the only team they give serious consideration to is the Brewers. Having said that, outside of one hot streak the Cardinals "faith" has taken a complete nose dive with Reds making up serious ground on them. That graph would suggest the Cardinals should be much more worried about the Reds passing them than they should be about catching the Cubs.
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I'm not. Also old enough to know that September and October of a team that existed 12 years ago has zero impact on what is happening now.
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You don't think or believe the Cardinals will turn it around? You've literally posted just that, how the Brewers are keeping first place warm for the Cardinals among other things. Then you make an argument with facts that don't exist? No one on this board has ever said that the Cardinals are out of it. They have only pointed out how historically good they'd have to be to make this run you think they have in them despite being the same team for months now. The Cardinals have been awful, like one of the five worst teams in the league awful for some time now.
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Hasn't been the case to this point. Not even close.
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The Cardinals have a .403 winning percentage. There is believing and then there is blind faith.
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Why would anyone have that much confidence in the Cardinals? All four teams you mentioned have been better teams all year.
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Noted
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Ah, I have that poster on my ignore list.
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Is there actually someone that is saying a sub .500 team will win the division?
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The Cardinals are currently 9 games under .500 and in last place by 2.5 games in the NL central which Features the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates. Their current hot stretch has them with the worst record in the NL and the fourth worst record in all of baseball. Despite that current hot stretch (7-3 in their last 10) the have managed to gain one whole game on the Brewers over that period (6-4 in their last 10) leaving the Cardinals 7.5 games back Posted the above on May 16th. Not much has changed since then despite the "here come the Cardinals" pearl clutching. The Cardinals were then, and remain, one of the wost teams in the game.
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I think they said it was just for a couple of weeks. Either way it was stupid and didn't help the pitching staff.
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The bigger issue is that this stuff is tolerated. Almost every time reliever comes into games refusing to throw strikes. Half the lineup has zero plan when they walk to the plate, swinging at everything and anything. Hitters aren't running things out, The team is defensively loose in the infield. This team needs a shake up and I hate to say it but maybe CC is that shake up
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Petty good news all around. I imagine Perkins goes for Taylor. The Houser decision clearly depends on what Rea does today.
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Not real encouraged by the early numbers for the minor league guys. Some good stuff to be sure but overall, not good.
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The better question is whether the projections are actually accurate in predicting anything at all.
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I am absolutely fascinated by the subset of Brewers fandom that will actively twist themselves into knots trying to explain why other teams warts are not actually warts and that anything the Brewers experience is disastrous and/or can't possibly be sustained. Not one of them would have looked at a rotation fronted by a guy whose pitched 150 innings over the last three years and a journeymen whose ERA+ is within 10 points of Eric Lauer's as a solid top of the rotation if it were a Brewer opening day rotation.
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Well, this started with a reference to the Twins trading for Urshela at which point the Brewers had Wong. So yes, we did have a second basemen...and a third basemen equal to or better than Urshela so I'm guessing that is what precluded a hypothetical acquisition of Urshela.
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I agree in that I don't see it happening but I think it will be the money, not the years. I really do not see the problem in giving him 3/4 years. We have high hopes for Jeferson but we don't really know yet. Even if he is ready in two years is he really going to assume an every day role from the start? Its more likely he splits time with someone.
