Lathund

If I was a big-market GM I'd be all over Harper. Mind you that means GM of a team that could withstand multiple years above the luxury tax, and that would still have flexibility to make other moves. Which pretty much limits it to Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers I guess. Now this isn't a logic I extend to free agents in general, but Harper (And Machado, if he wasn't such an *******) is a bit unique in that he's hitting free agency at such a young age. Even with a 10 year contract, you're only expecting the last couple of years to be bad. But even that isn't really the argument here; value-wise it still won't be a very good contract even in a somewhat optimistic scenario, and it carries a ton of risk. The reason it still makes sense is because of how hard it is to acquire top talent in this game, due to the draft and the long developmental cycle, the 6 (7 really) years of team control, the prospect premium for trades etc. You simply don't get the chance to sign a player this good who's only 26 very often. It's a rather unique opportunity to add a player this good for his prime years. Even a fairly pessimistic aging curve would suggest you're getting 5-6 highly productive years. When you're already a good team, it's hard to add quality beyond that. Paying a large premium, if you can afford it, for an extra "guaranteed" (In the sense that anything ever is) win or two is one way to do it. I think Harper will end up either re-signing in Washington or with the Phillies. Philies have a low payroll, and yet are willing to run one of the highest in the game. There's also no other team for whom Harper is a bigger upgrade. The other teams in contention already have good outfields. Outfields that would be better with Harper, but not to the extent that the Philliies would improve with him. They might even sign both him and Machado, tho that's too much to invest into two players really.

He was indeed awful in that series. But I would hope any decision is made not based on a couple of games, but rather the hundreds of games he has amassed over his career. Over the last 4 seasons (min. 1000 PA) only Posey and Sanchez have been better offensively. Baseball Prospectus, which includes framing in their metrics, has him as the best defensive catcher this year; mainly thanks to some of the best framing in the league, but the blocking is positive too. FWIW, in a partial season Erik Kratz is 8th, Piña is 19th.. and Realmuto is 54th, largely on account of framing. Anyway, while I expect the playoffs takes some value of what he'll get, I don't expect it to be by much. MLB execs these days are (or should be) smarter than that. If it does come down a fair bit though, we should be in on it.

If it is about money it's disappointing to see that the Brewers aren't willing to try to keep key staff. Or if they were willing to pay up, it's worrying that in that case he still wanted to leave. Doesn't bode well for the chances of giving Stearns the salary and perhaps promotion needed to keep him for when that time comes. I hope we're all just overreacting to this, but I don't like it.

Extremely concerning news. I wasn't too bothered with Coles, but two coaches leaving for what are, at best, sideways moves does not paint a good picture. One can only hope that this is due to plans underway to bring in someone new, but it certainly doesn't seem planned. And it would be hard to improve on DJ.

Will Smith and Keibert Ruiz, two of the highest rated C prospects currently. Considering it'd be a long-term commitment, and a fairly expensive one, to keep Grandal I suspect they'd be happy with Barnes and a short term option until their prospects are ready.

- Maybe tender Jonathan Schoop. I don't remember the exact specifics, but the team isn't on the hook for more than a small part of the salary if the player is released before the start of the season or some such. Now this decision obviously will have to come down to things that us outside the organization are not privy to. Basically if there were obvious and fixable (With a full offseason) reasons for him underperforming so massively (Like injury, problems adapting, psychological issues, fixable mechanical flaws) Brewers should very much consider offering arbitration. I'm not a big fan of the type of player he is overall, but if he plays to his career levels (League-average bat, above-average 2B defense) or better then he's worth keeping. If the Brewers don't believe this, however, then they move on. However I'll operate under the assumption that the Brewers do not tender Schoop for the following moves though. - Acquire a RHB to play 2B and/or 3B. If Josh Donaldson can be had for a 1-year or 1-year + options "prove your health" type of deal we should be all over that. Hard to come up with specific names, depends so much on the markets for these guys. Brian Dozier, Marwin Gonzalez and Whit Merrifield are all players in very different circumstances and costs, but at the right price they're all possibilities. - Acquire a catcher. Realmuto will be too expensive in prospects, and I expect Grandal (despite the postseason he had) to be a very expensive free agent. If either one happens to be available at a reasonable cost, then sure, but that's unlikely. There are a bunch of other veteran FA catchers out there, Ramos probably the best among them. Have a look at that, and explore some trades for blocked backups/prospects or solid catchers for rebuilding teams. Whoever is acquired will feature alongside Manny Piña, the exact role distribution depending on who we end up with. - Left-handed pitching. Could be a starter like Miley or Gonzales or even Keuchel if they want to go big. But could also be a reliever or two; I quite like Will Smith if the Giants are rebuilding. Those three are the main ones for me. Explore trades for Anderson, Thames, Broxton; If the first two happen there'll be quite a bit more salary to play around with, which will affect the moves above. Losing Thames would also mean that another lefty could be a target; or make sure the righty you get can hit righties well.

I went with the first option as I expect Piña to be the nominal starter to start the season, but I suppose "Other" would've been appropriate too if you include what they'll do at the position overall. Manny was almost exactly a league-average C (85 WRC+ vs the leagues 84) despite his offensive struggles at times this year. He is also a very good defensive catcher, in pretty much all areas of the game including framing. And I think the Brewers value catcher defense very highly, hence the pickup of Kratz who grades out even better as a receiver. Basically I think the Brewers view the catching position quite differently from most fans. I'm sure they'd like to upgrade, but I expect that upgrade to be someone to complement Piña and ideally improve the positon offensively somewhat but without sacrificing defense. And most of all I expect it to not be a very expensive addition. It could be one of the many FA veterans, could be trading for a veteran or it could be trading for a blocked prospect or blocked backup somewhere. The competition for Realmuto will be fierce. Yelich was attractive, but he was a corner OF with like a 120 OPS+. Favourable contract, potential for improvement, good defense at the position were all there of course which made him sought after, but primarily a corner OF nonetheless and corner OF bats are widely available. That he then exceeded all expectations and had an MVP-caliber season is besides the point; he wasn't priced with that in mind. Whereas catchers who are very good on both sides of the ball are extremely rare at the moment. Brewers *could* get him, but it'd hurt, a lot. And that package, which would hurt a ton, could be bested by a team like the Braves without hurting them much at all with their incredible prospect depth. I can't see how the price will be less than Hiura, Ray and Burnes (Or one of the other top pitching prospects, but I'm sure they'd want Burnes) and I'd rather have them for a combined 18 seasons than Realmuto for 2. If Realmuto had a Yelich-like contract, or at least more years, I'd be more inclined. I think that both Ramos and Grandal are more likely to happen if a bigger move is made. But I think the Brewers will prioritize spending both money and prospects elsewhere.

The fact that those two were parts of trades Brewers made shouldn't matter though. If there were two pitchers out there that were basically clones of Yamamoto and Medeiros but who had nothing whatsoever to do with the Brewers in the past, would they make sense to select in the rule 5 draft? If yes, then sure, go ahead. But those two trades already happened, whatever new signings the Brewers make should be judged on the basis of what they do to improve the team in the short- and long term in relation to the other options out there. Oh and if the Brewers didn't want to protect these guys in the rule 5 draft (i.e have them in a situation where they would be on the 40-man, but could be optioned) they'll not want to have them as rule 5 draft picks either. Anyway I have a hard time seeing the Brewers pick anyone in the rule 5 draft. I think it's an undervalued source of talent, but have a hard time seeing how we'd fit one onto the roster. Some rosters are better suited to it than others, but this one isn't it. Only thing I could possibly see is a reliever, but it'd take a special and overlooked talent for that to happen.

Tyrone Taylor added to the 40-man roster too.

If he opts out it's only to re-sign with the Dodgers for more total $. The only way that doesn't happen is if his ask is truly ridiculous.

Been part of 3 double plays today and thrown a runner out at the plate on a relay from the OF. Nothing I've seen from scouts has given me reason to worry about his defense, as long as the arm stays healthy. After all the knock on him was never that he was a poor defender, but that he was an unknown as a defender due to having DHd for most of his college career. He's young, athletic and a very good hitter; bascially anything short of looking like Jose Martinez in the infield would have been good enough. The fact that he seemingly looks like, at worst, a below average 2B after barely more than half a season there is good news. Also 4 scoreless for Bubba Derby in that game.

I think Whit is going to be too expensive to be the right move at this time. But at the same time I think he's got everything that people have been saying we need for next year. He plays 2B, with the versatility to play all over the outfield and probably 3B too for when/if Hiura gets here. Good on base skills and doesn't strike out much. RHB with a career .888 OPS against lefties, Good defender and a very good base stealer. Oh, and has 4 years of team control remaining. So while I think it's unlikely we can get him without giving up too much of our young pitching, it's definitely someone the team should check in on regularly. Perhaps some other minor league pitchers take a step forward and open up room to trade an arm or two. Perhaps the Royals really like some prospects that the Brewers aren't as high on. Perhaps something else happens that makes a deal possible.

It's hard to judge catcher defense when I haven't seen them play much and when the defensive metrics for catchers aren't quite there, so not going to comment on that. But in the other three races, Cain is the only one who should be winning. And he really, really should. Shaw is a very underrated 3B though. Not someone to make those throws from his knees outside the third baseline like Arenado does, but his decision making and the reliability and accuracy of his throws has impressed me throughout his tenure.

If the market for Donaldson indeed ends up at some kind of 1 year or 1 year + option(s) type of deal, we really should be all over it if he's healthy. Even if he's at 2018 levels it would be an OK deal, and I feel good about him being better than that. Should be wary of a longer deal, but a 1 year deal is nothing to be afraid of, as there aren't really any ripple effects, and you know exactly what the worst case scenario is.

Lineup construction has very little impact beyond the basics of putting your best hitters 1-5 and trying to stagger L/R somewhat. Having said that, Sabermetric lineup construction would say that Yelich is the ideal #2 hitter; I don't recall though if that's the ideal spot only when the pitcher bats 8th, or if it's true regardless. When you have such a good hitter though you can't really go wrong, has both the OBP and SLG to fit in at #1, #2 and #4. It's more to do with the players around them; Cain is perfect as a leadoff man, and Aguilar/Shaw suit the #4 spot so well that it makes #2 an easy choice.

A player needs to be active for at least 90 days during a season in order for the rule 5 draft conditions to be fullfilled. Which QTC won't be; any team taking him in the rule 5 draft would need to keep him on thier 25-man roster for all of 2020 as well. Which, of course, they very well might, but it doesn't make him the most attractive rule 5 target. Will be itneresting to see if they decide to protect him or not.

With 6 full seasons of team control remaining for McNeil, coming off a 140 OPS+ debut season, I really can't see why the Mets would ever want to give that up for Chase Anderson and Eric Thames. Chase is a useful starter for someone, but the Mets might be the last team in the league who would give up significant assets for a starter. They're pretty well stocked as is.

That's one potential solution to the infield situation gone. Is 3/21 for Eduardo Escobar something you guys would've been happy with? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/d-backs-agree-to-new-deal-with-eduardo-escobar.html

I imagine he'd make a pretty good starter, but i'd also avoid messing with a good thing. It's also a matter of comparing our young pitching talent, and for each one weigh the different roles and what they're suited for and build the roster accordingly. Guys like Burnes and Woodruff have the repertoire that lends itself well to going for longer stretches, with enough different pitches to keep hitters off-balance. Hader for his first inning or two is one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, but due to relying so much on his fastball will suffer multiple times through the order. Any loss of velocity will also hit him harder than these other guys who use their offspeed stuff more. Haders fastball at 93-94 is still a very good pitch, it just isn't the unhittable pitch that he can throw almost straight down the middle and induce swings and misses on, that is 98 fastball is. Even if he stays in the 'pen, and even if he gets by just fine with the 80/20 mix of FB/Slider, I think that a pitch with movement opposite the slider like a changeup/sinker could make him even better against righties. But yeah, he doesn't need to make major changes. Anyway, what I want to see the Brewers do with Hader is to embrace this hybrid nature even more and pretty much never have him go less than 2 innings. If you have a lead when the starter exits after 5 or 6 innings, Hader goes for as long as he can. Even 4 innings occasionally, if the pitch count is in good enough shape. Yes, this means he'll always been down for 2-3 days between outings, but I'm fine with that. It's how you get him the most innings with the least wear and tear. It also means you won't need to use any (Or just 1) of your other top relievers on those days. So you have Hader, you have 4-5 more traditional relievers who pitch in the other tied/narrow lead games, and 2-3 multi-inning guys; not "garbage time long relievers" (Though maybe 1 of them make sense), but the guys who didn't fit into the starting rotation, who pick up the workload on the days where Hader and Jeffress/Knebel/whoever isn't pitching.

The first thing to do, and which many of the subsequent moves depend on, is to evaluate the trade and FA market for 2B and to a lesser extent 3B as Shaw has proven he can play 2B adequately. If a solid 2B/3B can be found, that makes the Schoop/Moustakas situations easier to handle. Moose for 1 year at $15m isn't a bad idea, but I think he might decline his side of the option and seek a longer deal with more total $$$. And if he does, I don't think we should be in the running. Schoop... if he is the player he has been in Baltimore over the last few seasons, he's a good option even at $8-10m. I have my doubts though, and as always I prefer guys who get on base at a decent clip over pretty much everything else. That one depends on whatever 2B/3B we bring in; $8-10m AAV is a lot, but the fact that it's only a 1 year committement is in his favor. I would imagine most good options out there demand longer deals for more total money. Dubon gets a chance to show what he can do, as a utility man and perhaps 2B platoon with Shaw. I'm also ready to move on from Perez, assuming there's enough flexibility elsewhere. I would prefer to have a generally versatile squad and building the bench with platoon options rather than utility guys who can't hit. He's also starting to be more expensive. Now if the rest of the roster lacks positional versatility, it might be necessary to keep him around. I just get irrationally upset whenever he and his .285 OBP strikes out on 3 pitches. Aguilar isn't the all star he was for the first half. Perhaps he's showing some fatigue and wear and tear towards the end of the season? Either way, he's absolutely fine and it's not somewhere we should spend a lot of resources looking to improve. Hopefully the rest of the infield situation will allow us to play Shaw some more at 1B against tough righties Aguilar would struggle against. Would keep him more fresh too. I seriously love Erik Kratz. What a story he has been this season, and he genuinely seems like a fantastic person and teammate. But he's not the future at the position. Piña is younger and better, and I'd like to see him stick around and paired with someone else. Not a fan of a Realmuto trade, but there are a bunch of catchers who are free agents this offseason who could be interesting. This is also the one position where I'd prioritize defense more than anywhere else, as a good catcher makes the pitchers better as well. You'd like a good bat too of course (Which is what makes guys like Posey so incredibly valuable), but it's just a bonus. OF is pretty much set. Cain, Yelich and Braun will be here in 2019. I still don't believe we'll see 2017 Santana ever again, but he did enough in his PH role for another shot. He even looked a bit better on defense, which is nice as it means Yelich will get to play more LF when Braun sits. At SP there are plenty of options. Chacin will be in the rotation, and Nelson should get a chance. Beyond that there's Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Davies, Anderson. I want to give the young guys the chance to start. Plenty of players around with options, so regardless of exactly who starts in the rotation or not I'm sure they can figure out a way to keep 7-8 good starters around. Not looking to do much here other than perhaps 1 in and 1 out, more of that below. Bullpen will be shaped to some degree by the decisions regarding the starters as some will no doubt end up in the pen. Guerra has been excellent in relief, and Hader, Jeffress and Knebel are obvious key members of the 'pen. I'd look to add a really good lefty to that; not a LOOGY but genuine quality who just happens to be a lefty. Easier said than done though, and I don't want to pay the $10m kind of salaries to reilevers. I quite like Soria, but I'm not sure I want to pick up that option. It depends on what else we spend; if the infield/catcher positions can be filled cheaply, then pay Soria. But apart from the lefty, I don't see much need. Plenty of internal options. The above basically serves as a background to the moves below, as there are too many factors in play to say striaght up what to do. Like availability, options and such. But, roughly I'd try to - Trade/non-tender/release Thames, Perez, Anderson, Schoop (Unless devoid of other options) - Pick up one of Moustakas and Soria. Depends on other moves. - Acquire a 2B/3B bat as a bridge to Hiura. Whit Merrifield probably isn't getting traded, and will be very expensive if he is, but that would be a fantastic signing. - Mind you there's also the chance that Hiura will be called up early. Probably not from day 1 regardless of what happens (due to service time issues), but if he's healthy and plays competent defense it can be sooner than many expect. - Acquire a starter, perhaps Wide Miley. Can also be a depth type of move, can be a bigger one if money isn't spent elsewhere, but either way you can't have too many starters. - Acquire a good left-handed reliever. Maybe a return for Will Smith if the Giants are rebuilding/retooling? - Strengthen at Catcher. Prioritize defense. - Be on the lookout for good opportunities in general. If good players become available cheaply, acquire them. Keep trying to find value from minor league FAs, waivers and such. Now that's just a general blueprint of course. It all depends on what's really available out there; if there are no good options in one area, focus more on another and so forth. As for what the real Stearns will do, well just expect the unexpected. It'll be interesting to see what kind of budget we'll have, perhaps Attanasio is willing to spend a bit over the next couple of years, which would open up some real possibilities. Not just in terms of straight up FA spending (Where guys like Keuchel could be intriguing), but also in taking on (parts of) big contracts for players who are still good, but overpaid.

I'm not too keen on the idea of giving up a lot for just one year of a player, no matter how good. Especially not in a position where we already have a pretty good set of options. Some combination of Aguilar, Braun, Shaw and Thames will provide good enough production there. Goldschmidt is obviously better than them, being arguably the best 1B in the majors (Him, Freeman and Votto are in a class of their own) and you get that better production from just one player. But because he's so very good even that one year will cost a lot. More than the upgrade in production is worth. An extension isn't impossible, but I think that 20m AAV won't be enough. Carlos Santana got 60m/3 (Plus an option year) at the same age, and Goldy is much, much better. If we're gonna give up something of real value for a short-term upgrade, I'd do it where it'll have the greatest impact, i.e a position of weakness. Even finding a league-average or slightly above starter at 2B would improve us by almost as much as the difference between Aguilar and Goldy. And likely giving up less for it. 2B, a righty 3B, catcher, LHP are all better areas to target in a trade IMO.

CC confirmed that Miley is starting G5 on short rest. So I would indeed expect Gio + Woodruff tomorrow. I would imagine that Peraltas role during this 3-game stretch is to provide length somewhere, depending on the game situation. They could have some very specific use for him too ofc.

The system you propose has pitchers essentially pitching on a schedule, just like a normal rotation only every 3rd day, whether you realize it or not; it's the only way you can get it to work over a long stretch of time with all the innings you have to cover, you need all 12-13 pitchers over every 3-game cycle. There is very little flexibility in when to deploy which pitcher. Which takes away the main advantage you have with a Hader; that you can choose when to deploy him, i.e when he can improve your chances of winning the most. I'm not arguing against the concept of limiting multiple times through the order, or more use of multi-inning relievers (That's one thing I've championed for a long time). What I'm saying is that the practical realities of a 162-game season is that you can't stick to this system every day with the current roster size and with how current pitchers are conditioned. The pitchers who can do this 2-3 inning role for the most part won't be the pitchers who are relievers today, but starters. And there aren't enough of them. Relievers who have a sub-700 OPS against when facing 3-4 batters per appearance and throwing 15-20 pitches (i.e what typical relievers like Knebel and Soria have done to produce the numbers quoted above) likely won't do the same against 8-9 batters and 40+ pitches. You're not gonna pitch 140-170 innings pitching every 3 days. That won't reduce injuries, that'll end his career. No, what you're losing is 100-120 innings. And you wouldn't sacrifice anything? Seriously? Scherzer this year had a 2.53 ERA. The Nationals bullpen had a 4.05 ERA, which would have come mostly from 1-inning appearances. You're saying that if you took that bullpen, had them pitch ~50% more innings, and in longer stints, that that would drop their ERA to 2.53? Or, to be generous, to maybe 2.75 or so as Scherzer would likely drop his ERA too? When you have a pitcher like that, who over that many innings already gives up runs at a lower rate than like 90% of all relievers do, it makes absolutely no sense to have him pitch less. Not unless you had a way to make sure he pitched those fewer innings only when they mattered the most. But to do that, to get that freedom to be able to deploy him when you want, and not when you need to, you can't have a situation where he'll be needed to pitch on a schedule, or close to it; if he's on a schedule anyway, you might as well get 220 innings instead of 100. So to put him in that position, you need to have some of the other relievers pitch more innings, in order to preserve your elite pitcher some. And then you're in a situation where you're no longer giving the most innings to your best pitcher. And that's fine up to a point, but you can only get so far with that. Reducing the total numbers of runs you give up is what improves your chances of winning the most games over a full season the most. Which is why run differential or pythagorean record are better at predicint the rest of the season than the current win totals are. Shifting around where and when you give up those runs can and will help you, but only to a certain point. Basically you need bulk innings from somwhere, in order to make the most out of your Haders. The more of those innings that come from lesser pitchers, the more runs you'll give up and the more losses you'll get. Traditional pitcher usage has plenty of flaws, but the general principle of trying to have good pitchers pitch as many of your innings as possible is a good one. In a world where Josh Haders grew on trees and you could get 13 of him, you'd probably be best off having them pitch 2-3 innings every 3-4 days. you're right about that. But you can't fill a team with guys like that. There will be a wide range of talent on a team, and you need to deploy that talent in whatever way gets you the most wins. Dividing the playing time equally and randomly will not achieve that.

You need both guys who come in to lock down games, and guys who get you to that point in the first place. Max Scherzer can do almost what Hader can do, except in 220 innings rather than 80. He should stay in that role. Hader got better as a reliever, because he could get by using only his two good pitches, and because he could go all out for shorter bursts. Hader is exactly the type of pitcher who should be a reliever rather than persist as a starter, because they're simply better in that role. But the guys who actually can reliably perform to that insanely high level over 200+ innings should keep doing that. That type of talent is in short supply, and whoever you get to pitch those remaining 120 innings will do a worse job of it. Times through the order penalty is real, we all know (or should know) that, it's not exactly news. But when you have someone who performs the same the third time through the order as he does the second (Like Scherzer has for his career), then why would you cut his innings total in half? Having one guy like that means you don't have to use your 2-3 inning guys that day, and you can use them better on the 4 days where you don't have Scherzer.

I really, really hope the team won't go with any plan that involves Perez as an everyday player. His versatility makes him useful as a utility man, but his bat is too bad to be in the lineup every day. The only time to pencil in a ~80 wRC+ as a regular is if it's an excellent defensive shortstop or catcher. And we already have below-average bats in those positions. If Moose sticks around then continuing with the Travis Shaw experiment makes a lot of sense. Perez/Dubon as the platoon partners and defensive replacements, with Hiura taking over that role when ready, at which time I'd imagine Shaw would rotate between 3rd, 1st and 2nd a fair bit. Should indeed be plenty of at bats to go around, even if the team is lucky enough to stay healthy.