Lathund

Zobrist would fit our needs perfectly; short term and positional flexibility. Downside is that it helps the Cubs; if that's what they need to do to sign some relievers or (unlikely as it seems at this point) sign Harper, it's going to feel really bad. Then again, if there's a decent trade to be made then someone else will probably make it. Worth considering.

I would presume that since this is likely his only chance at a big(ish) free agent deal, his asking price is fairly high. Judging from the rest of the offseason, it's probably the # of years that's the issue. I still think he has a lot to offer, wouldn't mind bringing him back at the right price. Even though I'd expect Miley to be a higher priority for DS if they're still looking for a LH starter.

That's exactly the reason you'd use a stat like wRC+ or OPS+ instead of raw OPS, because it takes that into account.

Burch Smith.

I feel like, with 5 seasons under his belt, Chase is probably closer to the player he was in his four non-2017 seasons than he is the 2017 version. Even during that season he ran a 4.33 xFIP. Being a heavy flyball pitcher with an above-average HR/FB rate isn't a good combination. Doesn't have the kind of K/BB numbers to help mitigate that either. That's not to say he can't still be a useful starter, but if another starter is added then he will be the prime candidate to move on.

Don't think it has to do with arrogance, it'd simply be a 3-team trade scenario (as Rosenthal mentions at one point) in order to match up better. Perhaps the mystery team don't have, or aren't willing to give up, players that the Indians need, while the Padres have what they're looking for? It's not a matter of profiting for the Padres either I don't think, if the team with the 3B want a SP then they don't have anything to give up at the moment. A team like the Yankees would probably be a lot more interested in Kluber than they would anyone on the Padres, while if they also sign Machado (Seems unlikely right now, but who knows) then Andujar would be available, perhaps the 3B the Padres need.

Having a good backup catcher is important. Relying on Kratz and Nottingham full time if Grandal gets hurt doesn't sound great to me. Besides, Grandal is only here for 2019. Keep Manny around and one of the catcher spots is sorted for 2020, at a very reasonable cost. Absolutely no need to trade him unless the offer is truly silly.

I see no reason to trade him this offseason. We're looking to compete in 2019 and 2020 (And hopefully beyond) and I want him to be a part of that. Since an extension at a reasonable rate is probably unlikely, I'd look at a trade after 2020. If there's great demand and we're having a disappointing season I'd perhaps look at it at the deadline in 2020 or 2019 (It would really have to be a perfect storm for that to happen in 2019 though!). The main reason I want to keep him around, which is also the same reason he would fetch a good haul even with just one year remaining: He's good. Like really, really good. He had a bad run wiht a lot of HRs (His HR/FB rate doubled from the last two years), but that's mainly noise. Apart from that, his underlying performance was as good as, if not better, than 2017. Now things can change of course. If other relievers have breakout years then that could change things. We've just acquired a reliever with a high 90s fastball, a big curveball and control issues, perhaps the answer is there. Perhaps it isn't. Unless someone wants to give us the equivalent of the Chapman package (Which just isn't going to happen) I'll just stand pat for now.

I'm going to go for Trent Grisham.He's moved up a level every year, and every year he has been young for his level; 2½-3 years young. And will be again, whether at AA or AAA. The batting average is disappointing, as is the lack of power. But at the same time he has still been an above-average hitter overall, and has done that while young for his level and while being capable of playing CF (More likely to end up in LF, but that he can play CF is still a plus). MLB pitchers won't give him the chance to walk as much as he is if he doesn't develop any power, and he is perhaps too selective and passive so some things need to change. So this one is more like I was saying in a similar thread last year about Nottingham; he's been better than people think, and is still young and there's a real chance things improve. I don't see him as the kind of player you'd hope to see as a #15 overall pick, but it seems many people have given up on him completely, and I think he'll show them otherwise. I expect Mario Feliciano to have a bounceback year after an injury-plagued 2018. I also expect Payton Henry and Aaron Ashby to be very rapid risers in the system, but neither one doing so would really be a breakout as they kind of had those years already. So classify them more as meeting and even outperforming already high expectations.

Man I hope you are right. I am very worried that Jimmy will never be near the guy he once was, based on little other than years of being a pessimistic Brewers fan. No one nationally talks about it, but if Jimmy comes back to his 2017 form, and Burnes is what we think he might be, all of a sudden the one weakness everyone wants to talk about on this team becomes a legit strength. Just read this, figured it might be of interest if you do want to see at least someone outside the Brewers sphere talking about it https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-biggest-injury-wild-card-for-2019/

FWIW here are the estimates from MLBTR. Been mostly in line with the estimates: Overall most came in a bit below that, mainly Shaw, Piña and Guerra. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2019.html One that's a bit curious (Since the estimates are normally really good) is that Baez came in $2m below the estimate.

Cain Yelich Followed by some combination of Shaw/Braun/Grandal/Aguilar in the next 4 spots. Ideally alternating L/R somewhat. That's about as specific as I care to be; batting order has little impact beyond the obvious stuff like hitting your best hitters nearer the top. Cain just just perfectly suited to lead off, and based on last year Yelich is our best and most well-rounded hitter so should stay exactly where he was for most of the year, in the #2 spot. With Yelich at #2, having Shaw at #4 obviously makes a lot of sense too.

Good deal for the Yankees. I expect he'll put up his usual excellent defense, and put up a slightly above average wRC+.

I'd argue that the blanket Coors adjustment is a bit *too* punishing. Partly in and of itself, but also because none of it includes the Coors hangover effect. Anyway, the appeal is that even if you buy the 90/92 wRC+/OPS+ as adjusting offense correctly, his elite defense makes him valuable. Over the last 4 years averages 2.5 fWAR, 3.5bWAR and a whooping 4.5 WARP (And it's not all 2016 either). So essentially even if you take the defense metric that likes him the least, and the park adjustments that punish him the most, he's still an average starter at worst. At best, he's an allstar. Now, while the appeal of the player himself is pretty clear to me, it's a different question whether he's a good fit for the Brewers, roster- and contract-wise. Which, with Keston Hiura looming and him being strictly a 2B, I'd argue that he isn't.

Unless Harrison comes really, really cheaply I'd prefer to give Perez/Spangenberg the job until Hiura is up. As a platoon I expect they'd provide similar numbers. And any money spent on Harrison is money we can't spend on a LH starter.

That's a pretty cool stat. But I would think there are a lot of players who never popped out to the pitcher in their career as pitchers generally don't catch fly balls. The same is a little bit true with first basemen as unless they don't have to move to catch it, the 2B is probably going to catch a fly ball in that area. I don't think there are a lot of players who pop out, to anyone, no more than once per season.

Not exactly news, but not really worhty of a new thread either. Just wanted to point out that Joseph Daniel Votto is a special ballplayer. Joey Votto has 6,563 career plate appearances. He has never popped out to the catcher, pitcher, or first basemen. He has 7 popups total since 2010.

I'm glad we went with Grandal over Realmuto, not giving up any top prospects when we didnt' have to. Market for Realmuto just got even smaller; not that I think Brewers were honestly all that serious, but it was a possibility.

Wow I did not expect Grandal to be available for a 1 year deal. It's a high AAV, but because it's only 1 year there's very little risk. Continues the trend of Stearns valuing framing highly. And wanting LHH (Or better yet, switch hitters who hit well LH). Having Manny Piña as your backup, and probably starting a fair amount against lefties, is a pretty good situation to be in! And as always, I loved that it came out of nowhere. And for those looking up stats, for catchers Baseball Prospectus is the place to go (Though the presentation of the data leaves a lot to be desired) as they include framing in their metrics. By their metrics he has averaged over 5 WARP for the last four seasons, coming both from very good offense and from being perhaps the best, or at least one of the best, framers in the game.

I'm pretty sure they started using it long before Dan Jennings "started" a game, I think even during the preseason last year. Talking about out-getters, the run prevention unit and the position player group as a whole rather than starters/bench. And it was simply another word for the pitcher that started the game, which for most of the season was traditional starters, albeit ones with quick hooks. The term has its place IMO as a designation for a pitcher who starts games, regardless of whether it's Dan Jennings, Sergio Romo or Max Scherzer. Yes, the word literally means the same thing as a starter, but the term starter or starting pitcher obviously implies the usage we're all accustomed to. What I've found interesting is that it would clearly have been a conscious decision to start using the term, and as we know from society at large is that changing how we talk about issues goes hand in hand with perception of them, and will often precede change. That the Brewers will be unconventional in their pitcher usage (At least for parts of it) has been clear for a while, but it's curious that they felt the need to preemptively attempt to change the vocabulary we use to talk about pitcher roles. Certainly speaks to a long-term plan and a clear philosophy, whatever that might end up being.

I was fine with Moustakas last year, shuffling Shaw over to 2B for the short term in order to fit a bat with playoff experience and all that. I'm less interested in it for the long term. Shaw was OK at 2B, but it's a waste of his very good defense at 3B. And he is at best a below-average defender at 2B. If the team is going for a "big" signing I'd prefer it to be a 2B.

BABIP of .398 and .379 the last two years. HR/FB rates of 25% and 17%. Also gone from a 60-65% GB rate in the past to ~50% the last two years. xFIP has been a respectable 3.60 and 4.05 the last two years. So the underlying numbers haven't been bad, and there's a decent argument to be made that the same pitching will see better results going forward. But I also would imagine that they see something to tweak, something that they believe can see a return to those GB numbers which would work well with thise defense. Anyway, just a move for some bullpen depth with little risk and cost. We'll see how it goes.

I don't think Bum ends up getting traded in the offseason simply because teams looking to acquire him will value him at his expected level of production (Which would be heavily influenced by his recent stats) whereas the Giants will have to value him differently due to who he is and his history in SF. Zaidi trading Bum for anywhere near his "true" value as his first major move would not go down well, and while I'm sure that won't be his sole concern, it surely plays into it as well. So I would think that finding a middle ground won't be easy.

A LH SP who can go deep into games is something that helps us a lot beyond what he himself does, in that our mainly RHP bullpen benefits, and getting depth from 1-2 spots in the rotation really helps enable the bullpen style that we saw last year and expect to see again. Which is why I'm fairly positive towards Bumgarner, despite his warts. But it's kind of by default, as the LHP market isn't amazing. Bumgarner, Keuchel, Miley, Gio etc are all a mixed bag. I think, or hope, that Stearns has a price in mind for all the available guys (Mike Minor was mentioned as having been the target of trade talks as well. I'm sure there are others) and will pounce when/if the price reaches that level for one of the target he has in mind. The interesting bit then is what you do if that doesn't happen; how far to you take the concept of getting a good player on a bad deal? Also, I hate 1-year rentals in general. To me they often seem like the worst value type of deal. You pay less for each additional year normally; i.e Yelich didn't cost 2.5x as much as a similar player with 2 years remaining would have, he cost less than that. Whereas on the other side of the coin, the trade deadline rentals in one sense offers horrible value. But the major benefit they have is that you know your needs so much better than you ever can in the offseason. You don't need to take into acount 25-man roster fit to the same extent, you know exactly what you need, you know whether you're in contention or not, you have a better idea of who the player you're acquiring is etc. But for the offseason 1-year rental you get the worst of both worlds. You pay the same high price but without the added knowledge.

I really like Corey Ray, and unlike many others here I see a quite clear route for him to contribute in 2020 if he remains with the team. I expect him to continue his "breakout" and will put up some really big numbers in San Antonio this year. That being said, strengthening SP through a deal that doesn't include Hiura, Burnes, Peralta or Woodruff (Since those deals just creates holes elsewhere) is something I'm in favour of. I don't like giving up good prospects for 1-year rentals though, but I can live with it as a LHSP who can go deep into games helps on so many levels.