OnTheBlack

Is that sarcasm or are you being serious? That seems like a pretty strange determining factor.

That seems reasonable given how they've talked about taking it slow with him. But if he is pitching opening day in SA, my guess would be that he'd be in Milwaukee then within a couple weeks. Probably just as likely that he stays behind for extended ST'ing, builds up his arm, then gets a few starts in the minors for us at whatever level works out the best. Maybe it'll be 90 in April and that'll Appleton!

I hope you are right, I really do. But making that jump successfully is super rare. I think he has the talent to have a long, successful MLB career, but I'm tapping the brakes before I call him the next Brooks Robinson. It is certainly exciting to have a potentially elite bat in the system, though. You really don't need to condescend by saying I don't have a feel for prospects. The chances of him struggling in his first MLB action, whenever that occurs, are substantially higher than him coming up and immediately becoming the "3rd best bat on the team". I've NEVER seen anyone say he's the next Brooks Robinson. He's pretty much expected to be the antithesis of Brooks Robinson. If he ends up hitting like Brooks Robinson, I'll be disappointed. Of course if he ends up being the greatest defensive 3rd basemen of all time with a historically great throwing arm....that may off-set some of that disappointment. And is it really that much more likely that an advanced college bat and top 10 overall prospect who is coming off a dominant AFL struggles rather than succeeds at the big league level? [sarcasm]I really just want to see a simulated game with Jimmy Nelson throwing to Keson Hirura. That way I can write one guy off and get super excited about the other!![/sarcasm]

I think our window is the next 2-3 years. I also think it would be prudent for Hiura to play the full year at AAA, and aim for 2020 to start playing regularly at the MLB level. It's going to take him time to get his feet under him at the MLB level. Hence back portion of the window. If it happens sooner, great! Just trying to be realistic. Isn't it more prudent to promote him based on what he does rather than have a fixed time as to when you want to promote him? Edit-Obviously it's prudent to be strategic in when you promote a elite top 10 overall prospect like Hirura with regard to service time...but not just leaving him at AAA for a full year just because. Also, this should probably be in the "what's bugging you" forum, but who comes out and says "I'm not being realistic, but I think that." Everyone THINKS they're a realist. I realistically think he's an extremely advanced bat who's going to be ready this year and I also realistically think our window is more than the next 2 or 3 years. I don't see anything closing that window as of now. Hirura is a rare talent and a rare bat. How many elite young players do we need to see all across MLB before we dispense with this antiquated notion that we need to see guys spend a full year in AAA. If a 19 year old Juan Soto can post a .923 OPS for the Nats, not sure why Hirura can't be a productive player for the Brewers at some point this year and then at some point be that big bat in the lineup with Yelich.

So he didn't pitch in 2018. You're wording that in a way as if to suggest his layoff has been longer. Pitchers routinely miss seasons and come back and make a full recovery. That said, I did say he'd be our "surprise" impact player this year because if he is healthy, he's going to have to deal with scar tissue and probably some pain at times(which is absolutely normal when coming back from a major shoulder injury and actually in some cases a good thing). People seem to be trying too hard to make their cases though for their position. Throwing better than ever before and his stuff is sharper than it ever has been. Doubt it. I'll bet it was sharper during his breakout season. Then the flip side, hasn't pitched since all the way back in 2017 and he's nearing 30. So he'll turn 30 during the year and he missed a year. Not the first to do so. Or people will be happy if he ever just pitches again at a replacement level. Really? That's the "happy" outcome here? I'm a Brewers fan, so I just choose to be optimistic...but we all understand the risks. It's a shoulder injury. Some never come back. Some return to form. It does seem to me that if someone is going to come back from this, Nelson would be the guy to do it. And who knows, maybe he is throwing better than ever before and he's ready to put up a 20 win season with a sub 2.50 ERA. We'll see. But in the mean time, I'm personally tired of all the hand wringing with each routine start that doesn't go well, or when he slips off the mound. And the most profound statement I can think of...we'll see when we see. 162 game season and hopefully 3 more series after that season.

With regard to the first question, probably not as much...though we're brought up just about every available pitchers name, so, yes, I'm sure people would be bringing his name up, but he was with the Brewers, we have some familiarity with him and he performed well with us. And I'm sure people would still be interested given his track record. He's not just a guy who had a bad year with Washington last year and then pitched well for us. He's been one of the better #2-3 pitchers in baseball for a decade. If we can get him for cheap...why not? I like what Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff, but I would like to see a left hander that we can count on for 175 innings this year. I do feel like people are expecting a bit too much from the young guys because of their dominance in limited exposure last year in the post-season when they dominated in shorter stretches. Add that to the question marks about Nelson, nobody knows what Anderson is going to give us this year, it's probably asking a lot to expect Chacin to pitch a full season like last year at the same level. I'd just like to see a little more coverage. And Gio gives us a lefty with some upside yet without having to go nuts like we would have with Kuechel. I'm sure we'll add a couple of starters anyway and we likely would have added Gio by now if he was willing to accept what the Brewers were offering. But maybe that changes as opening day approaches.

Isn't Fant likely to be the 2nd Iowa TE drafted? I'd think he may be more realistic at 30...despite his lack of blocking. But that 40 makes him a lot more enticing. Like Engram from Ole Miss and the guy the Giants drafted from Miami the last couple years, he'd be pretty much a WR'er. Not that I wouldn't love to see him in GB. As for Oliver, again, I don't know what to make of him myself since I don't see a lot of Cougars games, but like I said in another thread, the talk coming into the year and even out of HS was that he was a rare, generational type talent. That's certainly toned done, hence him being projected to be available in some mocks when we're picking. Again, just wondering what's caused that. Sometimes when you're the consensus #1 people pick apart at you looking for holes and this past year he was banged up and had his worst year. He also didn't play the same level of competition. But Oliver, Hockenson/Fant, even Irv Smith and then Jaylon Ferguson in the 2nd would seem to be a pretty nice trio in the first 46 picks. That, coupled with the fact that Gute has said he plans to address edge rushers in free agency and then "see what we have left over," suggests that we're going to go hard after one of the elite available FA's, hopefully someone like Clowney and then someone with upside still like Fowler and we could be looking at a pretty quick turnaround if we hit on these. Pretty sure Perry isn't coming back next year(I believe it'd free up about another 8 or 9 million in cap space) and we'll need multiple additions on the edge.

Well, if Middleton just has a bad night, not a absolutely horrible night, they win easily. You can always look at other plays, but I WOULD put the losses the last two games on Middleton. You were up 17 and then up 10 halfway through the 4th and Middleton was just terrible. When your #2 offensive player makes the plays he made and you give up those types of leads...it's on him. That said, everyone struggles and I'm still confident he'll come out of it like every good shooter who struggles at times. I don't remember who it was, but someone just had an 0-13 game from 3 breaking the record for most 3's attempted without a make by guys like Steph and a few other greats(it was probably Harden). It does get more frustrating when he's not hitting as opposed to some of the other guys like the other perimeter guys who catch and shoot because he does play more ISO than anyone other than Giannis and maybe Bled, but he's also usually a big benefit.

.279 BABIP on his batted ball profile is pretty lucky. Putting up a sub 3 era with a 6.55 k/9 is pretty lucky. It certainly helps that he basically walks nobody. Considering how often the ball is in play when a guy has such a low k rate and bb rate, having a very favorable BABIP will seriously swing a guys ERA. Also factor in the Cardinals are going to have a few weak spots on defense this year. Carpenter at 3b, Gyorko will probably play some 2b, Martinez sometimes in corner OF. I can't see this guy posting another sub 3 era season. He'll probably settle in the upper 3s somewhere over the 3 combined seasons, with his 33 and 34 seasons probably being underwhelming. 6.55 K/9 would've been an issue if he hadn't also been the best starter in the league at limiting walks (1.30 BB/9), it's the ratio that matters more than the raw numbers. More baserunners you give up, the more vital it becomes to record a lot of strikeouts. .279 BABIP isn't much of an outlier, there are whole teams who average that. He was good at limiting hard contact, and while there's Gyorko, Martinez and Carpenter there's also Wong, DeJong,Goldschmidt, Molina, Bader and O'Neill. Their defense will unfortunately be just fine overall. So there's not really any reason to think his BABIP will suddenly balloon. A regression to the normal ~.300 won't even hurt him that much. I don't expect another sub 3 ERA either, but that's not even necessary for the deal to be worth it. Upper 3s can mean different things, but there wasn't even one starter per team that managed 170 IP with a 3.70 ERA in 2018. Bring that down to 150 IP and a 3.80 ERA and that number is still below 40. And barring serious injury trouble, I think that's about the worst case scenario. We won't know who's right until a few years from now of course, but it's really not a foolish deal to make. Look at it this way, the FA market this offseason wasn't exactly swarming with pitchers you'd rather give that contract to. Nor will it be after the 2019 season.[/quote] Actually after the 2019 season, at least as of now(who knows who's going to sign) it's going to be one of the best FA classes for pitchers in recent memory. From young studs like Cole to vets like Verlander and MadBum...it's a ridiculously loaded group.

I didn't remember specifically it being June, but I agreed with you, it wasn't just "ridiculous speculation," it was from the people in the Brewers organization who were talking about a pre-ASB return from Nelson last year. They certainly weren't saying in May that he was on schedule and that "basically meant" 2019 unless there was a miracle. They all seemed confident he'd be back at some point. The poster that replied to you suggested it was just fans throwing out ridiculous predictions. Either way, he's back now, and I'm confident he's going to be the surprise player for us this year like Yelich was last year who picks up some of the slack from guys who performed a little better than expected did.

Kinda sounds like from what the Steelers have come out and directly stated, they're open to moving him because they simply don't want him back and the situation for a number of reasons has become untenable. And again, some of Big Ben's passive aggressive comments and the comments just made by the GM suggest it's a bit more nuanced than just a disgruntled WR'er. Obviously they want to get the most for him that they can and nobody has suggested they'll be "giving" him away. As for playing with AR, he's an elite route runner and has a reputation as a extremely hard worker. Not sure why he wouldn't fit with Rodgers. I doubt he'd have issues playing for the most physically talented thrower in the NFL. I guess it only takes one team and there are a lot of poorly runs teams out there(the Raiders look like they've taken the baton from the Browns to lead the league in that respect).

There is a rumor going around that connects David Edwards, Alex Hornibrook, and the cause of Hornibrook's first concussion, and if true it is the type of thing that could easily lead to both of them being told to leave before they get kicked off the team and could lead to Hornibrook losing the locker room if he stays. I hope it isn't true. That being said, there are a lot of things that are coincidental here. Are you referring to something beyond Edwards declaring and Hornibrook leaving? Because I think both those are pretty easily explained. For a 3 year starter and a guy with 26-6 record, Hornibrook was about as maligned as a college QB could be by the fans, and Edwards is a guy who has a chance to go in the 2nd. Could potentially have been higher had he had a better combine.

For options at 12? Nope I’m pretty high on a lot of guys who have chance to impact this team! Lol it is a deep draft at positions we need! At 12 I’d narrow it down to Sweat, White, and Wilkins. Hard not to love any of those 3! Later in 1st/2nd Adderley is a guy I want! Leadership, work ethic, and play all make him a great choice. And that has nothing to do with him being related to a HOF DB from the Packers glory days! I do think it'd be cool to end up with him...but the way things work, the Bears probably will. The guy who scares me the most is Sweat. He's stock is probably going to shoot up a bit now with his ridiculous 40 time, but he seems like he has more bust potential than most. Certainly big upside as well.

If anything, I think this makes it more likely that they keep the team together. Bledsoe's salary next season is now going to be about $7m less than his cap hold would have been, and that's a lot of breathing room under the luxury tax line. This also signals that they're probably prioritizing retention, as opposed to decimating their supporting cast around Giannis in a foolhardy "grass-is-greener" pursuit of another superstar. The Bucks' intentions are at least as crucial as any player's intentions when it comes to predicting how the off season plays out. This could also be seen as the first domino. If Mirotic, Bledsoe, and Middleton all go to unrestricted free agency, any one of them could have doubts about resigning just because they can't be sure the other two will resign as well. Bledsoe committing takes one ball out of the air, making it a lot easier to juggle the other two. We know players love to play for a contender and are often willing to make some personal sacrifices to do so. With Bledsoe officially on board, the other free agents can be a little more confident they'd be returning to a contender if they decide to accept a reasonable offer instead of maximizing every dollar they can get by working free agency for all it's worth, regardless of destination. Middleton, when he made the all-star team, unequivocally said he wants to stay. The reason there's uncertainty there is because he has a player option and can't sign an extension for fair market value under the circumstances. It's just a nuance of the CBA that requires him to go all the way to unrestricted free agency to get a fair raise (let alone an exorbitant one). The questions about fit are legitimate. In particular he doesn't always like to play at the tempo the Bucks like and hasn't embraced a role shooting open 3's off the ball, preferring to iso against his defender with the offense revolving around him on those possessions. But they should make a competitive offer; it's a risk they have to take. He's not old or anything, and his game doesn't depend on athleticism. He may be a bad contract, but I don't think he'd be a terrible one, and you can always just trade him for a player with a bad contract who fits better. More importantly, you can't just spend the money on someone else. You have the right to go way over the cap to keep him, and you lose that right if you don't keep him. It would be foolish to be stubborn about money and lose talent for nothing that way. Mirotic and Lopez are the biggest question marks to me. Mirotic plays the same position as Giannis and could eventually be an all-star. How do you sell him on staying if he can make significantly more and be a 35 mpg starter elsewhere? Lopez is in a similar situation, as he's the nominal starter but might regularly lose minutes to guys like Mirotic, if he stays, and eventually Wilson, who are better fits for the modern NBA. And the Bucks aren't allowed to pay him more than the MLE (if that). Their decisions probably depend on each other as much as they do on the market. I know you're not a personal fan of the man, but you seem to ignore the RFA we have who is currently on pace to finish a 90/50/40 season while playing real solid defense. It'd be nice if we could have found a taker for Snell, the last bad contract the Bucks are stuck with. But the Bucks are going to want to bring Brogdon back and he's likely to get 12-15 per year....if not more. It'd be one thing is they'd seen more from DiVincenzo... Either way, this off-season is going to have enormous repercussions. Hopefully the summer after next we're making Giannis the highest paid athletes in North American team sports with his 5 year 250-something super-max deal and the Bucks can put one more piece around him. On a side note, really hoping we can snag Bruno Fernando in the draft. He's all over the place right now on draft boards and will probably be gone by the time we pick, but he could be our Clint Capella type that I think the Bucks really need. That big with the athleticism to get 10+ boards and be another big who can protect the rim and get up and down the floor. Not that they're lacking that this year, but being able to find a young guy like that in the draft would be huge.

That was just ridiculous speculation. Looking at past news reports, he was reported as being 'on schedule' in May 2018 which basically meant 2019 unless there was some sort of miracle. Then progress plateaued in the summer and he was officially declared out in August. After such a long rehab his comments are the best you can hope for. Nobody is going to expect him to be a #1 starter this year but I admire his confidence. That was coming from the Brewers organization. Not June per say, but that he may be ready as soon as before the ASB up until they shut him down and sent him back out when he took that two week break in May or whenever last year.

I agree. Steelers aren't going to deal him to an AFC rival while their self-perceived window is still open. He's an electric player who is easy to market and will put butts in seats, so it isn't going to just be contenders who are interested. I could see teams like the Buccaneers, Panthers, Lions, Cardinals, 49ers and Seahawks all interested. Rams and Saints too if they want to add to their offensive riches, although I have no idea how the Rams would be able to fit him under the cap. I could see the Packers making a play if they truly think that there's a legit Super Bowl window in the next 2-3 seasons. The Saints trading for him would basically be saying they're choosing him over the much younger Thomas who has turned into an absolute beast. They would be over the cap as of now if they added Brown..so I don't see that. The Rams have the whole rookie QB contract that allows the luxury moves they've made, so that wouldn't surprise me. And he'd be a great fit there. The two teams I least want to see him go to that are being discussed are the Hawks and the 49'ers. I think both could be really good in the near future, and if you have a guy like Kittle who runs like a WR'er and just sets records for TE's and Brown and Jimmy G looks like he did in his first half season there, they could make a huge jump. Seattle has lost all the big stars essentially sans Wilson and Wagner and they just rebuilt on the fly. If I was Carolina, I'd want to go and get Cam a great WR'er who can really create separation, but that front office believes in the big bodied WR'ers(at least they did..maybe Cam's 50 pct comp pct might sway them a bit). I still think we've got a shot, but the longer this has gone on, the less I see the Packers giving up a first. It's hardly a position need. I think we're gonna have a really nice core of WR'ers in the near future. This would just be a move to make everything else easier for the Packers. Less pressure on the D, the running game would benefit and it should make Arod happy. Brown, Adams, St. Brown, Scantling and Graham(and now I'm kinda hoping Fant instead of Graham) and that's an explosive group.

Yeah, the Raiders actually make all the sense in the world....right after Gruden decides he can do better at QB and they move Carr as well when the league year starts. They've seemingly done everything wrong since giving Gruden 75 million dollars, so why not take a team that just traded two elite talents that helped you rebuild your franchise who were much younger and turn around and take one of those firsts and give it to the Steelers while they're rebuilding. If I was the Steelers, that'd be one of the few AFC teams I'd feel alright about trading him to.

I was thinking he'd be close to 5.0 given his frame and that he was a TE, but from what I've seen the scouts were impressed with his movement at least. I've never seen it with Edwards. Two years ago they were talking about him being a future 1st round pick during a game(don't remember who, but thought it was ABC vs NU) and I just never really saw that from him. Of course I thought Dallas wasted a pick taking Frederrick in the 1st to move him to Center and he's been a stud for them.

That'd be one thing if these were rumors. The owner has come out and said he can't see him playing another down for the Steelers, the GM just insulted the entire team and basically took Big Ben's side in their feud and actually made Brown look good coming away from that interaction. As for him wanting a new contract, I think it's highly unlikely anyone gives him a new deal with significant guaranteed money. He got paid like an elite WR'er. Him feuding with Big Ben doesn't change what he's already gotten paid and I don't see any team rewarding him with another mega-deal. I'm starting to believe that our 2nd round pick and maybe another late rounder is going to be enough unless the Cards want to go all in on stupid decisions for this off-season and trade Rosen(Steelers QB of the future potentially) as well as a good draft pick(33rd ovr) for a guy who at best will be 33-34 when you're ready to actually contend. Him being 30 years old doesn't worry me as a Packers fan that much(turning 31 before next season) as you expect elite talent like him to produce into their 30's, but why would a rebuilding team even consider it?

That's a good one....but with WR'ers, if there's questions about their route running, you know that's likely going to be a long process with Rodgers. He could be a Percy Harvin type threat though. I like Jaylon Ferguson if he makes it to our 2nd round pick. His stock is less likely to rise too much since he won't be allowed to do drills at the combine, but he was a machine in college and he has the size and burst to fit in nicely as hopefully a EDGE ready to produce from day one.

So how are you thinking the rest of the off-season plays out? It seems less and less likely that we bring back Middleton for much short of the Max with teams like the Lakers, Pacers, Nets and others reportedly interested. He's not a legit max level player, but if you let him go, you don't have money to sign any Free Agents of substance with Bledsoe and the Middleton and Mirotic and Brogdon holds...and can you afford to NOT re-sign him with Giannis due to become a FA in 2021? Love that we have Bledsoe back, but the short term future of the Bucks would SEEM to rest on the Middleton decision looming over us. And while I didn't think Bledsoe would take a discount, it doesn't sound to me as though Middlton is willing to take another discount.

I remember when TJ Ford was supposed to be the answer... Lee Mayberry. With Todd Day as his backcourt running mate. We tried going back to that Arkansas well a few too many times. I was all about Erik Murdock back in the day. I think I was about 8 years old, but I remember thinking he was clearly the next great NBA legend. The guy who'd become the next MJ. Might have had my expectations set a bit too highly....

Well, it may help that a guy who was well under .500 at his alma mater is leading the team that has the top pick and seems to love Murray, and it's not crazy to think Hoskins could go 2nd. In that scenario however, that 3rd pick is likely to be worth even more than the Jimmy Johnson equation may value it at. Bosa looks like he might be even better than his brother and the type of guy who can help turnaround a defense quickly. Not sure he's a great fit in Pettine's D as he's on the small side for a 5 or a 7 technique, but he's such a stud that he'll be great in any system. If we're not getting him, and it looks like both he and Allen will likely be out of reach, anyone else intrigued by Oliver? They were talking about him being the consensus top talent coming into the year and now I see mocks having him falling out of the top 10. An edge rusher is obviously the biggest need, but if you can get a guy with something even approaching Donald type talent, I'd rather see that then reaching for Sweat or someone. Just curious why he's falling on these mocks. Is it because for 3 years people have been talking about him, because he was banged up and wasn't as good last year, the lesser talent?

All this stuff is rhetorical for the most part. I don't see it as a waste as I enjoy the varying perspectives.

I would hope that wouldn't be the case. A lot is likely going to change between now and then. I'm guessing he took this just because he plays maybe the one position in sports where you're more likely than not to suffer a injury that jeopardizes your career and you might as well cash, secure your future and your families and then still be young enough if you're as good as it looks like he can be to earn much more AAV as a FA. 3 years from now the labor stoppage should be done and they should figure out a way to make the players and owners agree to a new structure.