OnTheBlack
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Everything posted by OnTheBlack
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Packers roster analysis, post draft moves/needs?
OnTheBlack replied to OnTheBlack's topic in Other Sports
This right here is pretty much what's going to define the Packers season. I don't think the Bears secondary was that much better last year than previous years, they just happened to add one of the greatest pass rushers ever. The Packers didn't do that...as much as they tried, but they did go out and get two guys in Preston and Za'Darius Smith who were both much-much more effective at rushing the passer last year than Perry and Matthews(in fact, I believe both had more pressures individually than Perry and Matthews had combined). Then you throw in the freakishly talented Gary, the underrated Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels in a free agent season, and our depth is nice as well. Keke is a guy I like better now than before, I really like Lowry, Lancaster came on and looked like a nice rotation piece. We don't know what we have in Montravius Adams, but we saw at least a few flashes where he exploded off the LOS and blew plays up. Kinda like his pre-draft profile, the talent is clearly there, not sure if everything else is. And then you have Deon Simon as an under the radar NT who I think could make this team. There is plenty of talent there and plenty of time that once the depth chart gets sorted out, this SHOULD make our secondary that much better. Of course we have no idea what we have in Savage other than his athletic ability. He's fast and physical. He also seems to be really good in coverage as a FS. And then King. He's a #1 Corner if he can stay healthy. There's no question about that, and every question about his health. But Amos was a awesome move, Alexander looks like a legitimate difference maker. Just need to hope Jackson and King can be healthy, and there's a chance Tony Brown makes a big jump this year. I could see him coming on like Sam Shields did about a decade ago. They seemingly fixed the safety spot, the CB spot relies on health....and now presumably not having to cover for 4-5 seconds every play and closer to 2-3 and that should result in more picks, more breakup's, just everything. -
Do they though? Doesn't really seem like it. In fact, they seem to be decreasing for FA's who are in their 30's(which is where Yelich would be). So I don't see him getting 300 or 400 million as a FA in another 3+ years.
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Cashner to the Red Sox, Prospects to Baltimore
OnTheBlack replied to JDBrewCrew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I kinda doubt they care at this point. By the time they're anywhere near competing again, just about whoever they trade would likely be gone. So if they have a decent arm, it would actually probably help them to face that arm more often, helping them lose more games so they can lose even more games. -
Yeah! If anyone is going to overwork these pitchers it's going to be the college coaches! [sarcasm]It's a favor to the major league clubs. Get that pesky Tommy John out of the way before they get drafted.[/sarcasm] Seriously though, managers who will let a pitcher throw 140 pitches and then come back in the tournament on short rest and go 110-120 are clowns. They seem to care deeply about their future earning potential. At the big league level pitchers are allowed to throw 115 pitches or more 4.4 pct of their starts and 6.1 in the post-season. In college that's 10.5 and then 21.2 pct for Sr's and 16.9 pct for Jr's. There are some schools that are good about it. I'd be curious how Vandy is about it given all the elite pitching prospects they produce. I know UCLA is one of the worst while Florida and Florida State I believe are two of the best(though FSU despite constantly getting to the CWS, almost never produces any decent pitchers). It's even worse in HS. My Freshmen year as a guy who seldom played, one of the games I did catch was a conference game vs a bad team. Our coach let our pitcher throw 169 pitches in what ended up a 9 inning game we won 1-0. The guy wasn't a big time recruit, but he was getting interest from division one schools like Indiana, UWM, and a few others. Ended up going to Cincinnati, hurt his arm as a Freshmen(never heard what exactly) but he never threw again.
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Agree here. They're just a different animal. If anybody's ever been it's more like a minor league environment than an Indy league. I've never been to a Milkmen game and never will. Indy ball is trash. You're better off watching a Land O Lakes game for free Another pretty obnoxious post. It's a popular theme you've got going.
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Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
OnTheBlack replied to HarveysWBs's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I could see the Brewers getting hot and a number of guys start playing like they should. Cain would be the big one, but Aguilar is coming around, Braun's doing well, there's a number of pitchers. Davies, Burnes, Chacin. So I could see this team getting hot and winning a NLC title. But what then? MAYBE they beat the Braves, not the Nats if they come back and win that division which I think they will, but if they managed to, there is next to no chance they beat the Dodgers and in the AL, you're looking at Houston, a team that is insanely deep, the Yankees only need about 3 IP from their starters given that pen, they've played great all year long despite almost every starter going down with injuries and there are other teams like the Rays, A's, Sox who they're not beating. Make some moves, reload for next year, spend on a true ace if one will sign here(I'm all in on Gerritt Cole and the enormous price tag). Then spend the rest of this year trying to get Aguilar to continue to get going in this second half, throw Shaw back out there..I believe this year is the fluke over the last 2 years, give Cain the time he needs to heal, see what Grisham can do, Supak, Ponce, Devin Williams, throw Peralta back into the rotation. And then come back next year and hopefully you'll have some guys who either figured it out or you'll know for certain where you need to improve. Non-Tender guys like Nelson, Barnes. I'd bring back Anderson. But mainly, I'd bet on Cole. The Brewers can't spend like other teams, we all get that. But with such a loaded FA class of pitchers and such a strong group of potential pen arms on the team, coming back from injury or in the upper levels of the system, combined with the young starting pitchers, Yelich cheap, Braun coming off, they have to go after Cole aggressive. I am all about the Shelby Miller, Smyly, Wade Miley, Yovani-type signings. But you need one you KNOW if going to top that rotation and you already know you've got a #2 in Woody. I still believe we've got guys who can be really solid in the rotation on this roster cheap. Now's the time. At some point, you have to go for it so to speak and even 6/180 for a 28 year old pitcher who's averaging 97 MPH on his fastball, throws 4 pitchers and is dominating this year despite his HR rate being almost double what it's been for his career. I'd rather they pay for him, give him the extra year than try and outsmart themselves and sign Ryu or Hill or someone like that to a 3/50 type deal hoping they'll keep having success. -
Angels pitcher Tyler Skaggs passes away
OnTheBlack replied to Jopal78's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It was posted online last week before being pulled. It didn’t suggest they had any type of inside knowledge whatsoever, they were speculating on reasons why young people can pass away. It was very reckless as well as bizarrely worded/written. Well, that's irresponsible. I'm also curious why Dan Rather has an opinion on this. I used to think he kinda got the short end of the stick, but all the same, I see zero reason for him to open up his mouth about how his COD should be made pubic. I get the opiate epidemic. I've struggled with it just a little bit. Lots of surgeries, lots of injuries and they handed out pain pills. Actually got Oxy Contin 80 MG's over a 3 month people for period(270 total, taken as needed). By the time I got done, I was still young and I didn't know what withdrawl felt like. I was so sick and so miserable that if I hadn't been so naive at the time, I'd have called anyone I knew and tried to get my hands on whatever would have made that pain go away. As it is, I spent 3-4 days in bed, went to my regular doctor, told him, he said I could go to rehab or if I felt comfortable, that I was mostly through the worst part and he give me things to minimize the affects. Some xanax so I could sleep, and then a mix of stuff like ensure, and whatever, I don't remember. But this was before the whole thing was really becoming mainstream. So I understand wanting to get more information out there about how you can die and you can die far easier now than 15 years ago when I was taking the pills if you swich over because of the fentanyl. But if you have ZERO CLUE that had ANYTHING to do with the death of this young man, don't start an article speculating. It doesn't do anyone ANY good. Frankly, even if you do know, the benefit of revealing this information is negligible to the harm it would cause the family. -
Angels pitcher Tyler Skaggs passes away
OnTheBlack replied to Jopal78's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'll make that argument. He played baseball. He didn't run for office, he wasn't out promoting movies and putting himself out there trying to get people to buy his product, he played the game he loved. If he overdosed on drugs(absolutely zero reason for me to say this, just a hypothetical). What good does that do the public other than fulfill their morbid curiosity? I think if he died of a heart condition, if he died to a aneurysm, I'd kinda LIKE to see them make that public, but there is still real argument for why they should feel "compelled" to disclose his COD? He was 27, people with whom he had limited interactions with him genuinely liked/loved the guy and I haven't heard about any skeletons in his closet and I hope if anyone else has, they keep it to themselves. We don't have to know anything more than a young man died and it is made all the sader by the fact that he was doing something special with his life and had an impact on so many people's life. -
Dubon sent to AAA.....Jackson recalled.
OnTheBlack replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
He's not likely to come up and be Knebel in Sept/Oct last year, but even when he was up for the 2+ IP this year, his stuff looked good. I was interested to see what Dubon could do, but just not enough playing time for him. 2nd is covered, I like Arcia at SS still due to his defense(and he's still got some pop at least) and Moose has 3rd locked down. I also don't really know if Dubon even really plays 3rd effectively at all. I'd think if a guy can play Short he could play 3rd. Only 7 game started, but, again, why move a competent defender at 2nd and SS off those two spots? -
Dubon sent to AAA.....Jackson recalled.
OnTheBlack replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
What? No habla incoherenta -
Shopping Grandal to the Dodgers
OnTheBlack replied to pacopete4's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Trading players on expiring contracts like Grandal (and Moustakas) isn’t a fire sale. They have just 16 games remaining in July. I agree that they would need to lose a lot more games (probably at least 10+), but I don’t think 10 games out would be the parameter for selling. If they end up greater than 6.0 games out of both the division and wild card with several teams between them and the playoff position, then I would be disappointed if they didn’t engage in the concept of selling. I’ve brought it up before in the sell thread (link), but the 2016 Yankees are a good example of an average team that used a few trades at the deadline to improve their future outlook. I'm getting to the point where I don't care much about where they are. It comes down to a couple players over the next couple weeks. Aguilar, Burnes, Davies, Hiura, Chacin...even Shaw to a lesser degree. If we continue to sit around the top of the NLC but those guys continue to struggle, we're likely not going to do much anyway. Might as well get some value in return and re-load for next year. -
Shopping Grandal to the Dodgers
OnTheBlack replied to pacopete4's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Trading players on expiring contracts like Grandal (and Moustakas) isn’t a fire sale. They have just 16 games remaining in July. I agree that they would need to lose a lot more games (probably at least 10+), but I don’t think 10 games out would be the parameter for selling. If they end up greater than 6.0 games out of both the division and wild card with several teams between them and the playoff position, then I would be disappointed if they didn’t engage in the concept of selling. I’ve brought it up before in the sell thread (link), but the 2016 Yankees are a good example of an average team that used a few trades at the deadline to improve their future outlook. I'm getting to the point where I don't care much about where they are. It comes down to a couple players over the next couple weeks. Aguilar, Burnes, Davies, Hiura, Chacin...even Shaw to a lesser degree. If we continue to sit around the top of the NLC but those guys continue to struggle, we're likely not going to do much anyway. Might as well get some value in return and re-load for next year. -
I guess it could work out for the Rockets. I doubt it, but they were already in the midst of a disaster with Paul and Harden at odds. This is great for the Thunder. They just keep stockpiling picks and young talent. And they'll probably have a few lottery picks over the next two years. IF the Bucks have to move on from Giannis, the Bucks would be lucky to be able to get this type of return. But I think this is great for OKC. They traded two PG's who had awful contract and got compensated with a lot of picks. They've not added; First-round picks in 2024 and 2026, pick swaps in 2021 and 2025 from the Rockets. Those 2024-2026 picks could end up being really nice picks for the Thunder by then. Even if they're not, that's still a lot of draft capital. For George they ended up getting: FOUR unprotected first-round picks, one protected first-round pick and two pick swaps in addition to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari. So they get 5 picks from the Clippers and the ability to swap picks. Another 2, plus 2 more chances to swap 1st rounders. They get a key building block, the type of PG you can a franchise around. And added a 6'10 PF who wasn't far away from a 50/40/90 season and is one of the best stretch 4's in the NBA AND they still have Chris Paul, one of the all time greatest PG's and one who's still an elite PG. I've never seen or heard of a team acquire more assets to build a contender in such a short period of time. They just got completely lucky that they found two franchises that were desperate. The Clippers to trade for George so they could convince Kawhi to sign on and Houston HAD to trade one of Paul or Harden and they're not trading the guy who's been in the top 2 in MVP voting the last 5 years and is 3 years younger than Paul. And again, I think they could get a ton if they so choose for Alexander, Gallinari and Paul. Those are 3 really good players. And they get out from under the luxury tax. This is how you build a young superstar team as a small market. This is how you can rebuild a team like the KD/Westbrook/Harden/Serge type team as a small market team.
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The Rockets theoretically should be better but it all depends on how well Harden plays with Westbrook. Harden and CP3 didn't get along at all on the court. I don't think Harden and Westbrook are a good pairing but who knows maybe they prove everyone wrong. The Thunder go from a 7 or 8 seed with Westbrook and getting swept in the playoffs to becoming a lottery team. It was time to rebuild for them. The Thunder did get some solid young players in the George trade along with the picks. I don't expect them to be bad for very long depending on who they get in the draft. Paul will definitely be traded maybe that Pacers pick plus Ersan for Paul? Not that I want the Bucks to trade for Paul but I could see that happening. I don't get why people wouldn't want Paul. He makes them a much-much more dangerous team in the playoffs than what they have right now. It's just that Ersan doesn't come even close to matching Paul's salary. OKC is working with him to try and work out a deal that makes sense, but OKC is gonna want something back for him. A couple more 1sts. Right now they just pulled off one of the haul's of the century. I didn't think a team would get more for a superstar than what the Pelicans did, but the Thunder MAY have, but only because that trade was effectively for Paul AND Kawhi. They gave up some good young talent though.
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Fraizer is gone and I'm not sure what Colson's deal is. But Frazier signed with Detroit. Korver has listed the Bucks as one of the team he wants to play for. I'd be good with Carter, I'd be good with just bringing Pau back on a minimum deal.
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My thoughts exactly except I don't think Westbrook will command all that much more than what is rumored to be a package for Westbrook. If the Thunder want to wait until the trade deadline maybe the Knicks will step in and give them the picks that they would want. The only other team that seems intriguing for the Thunder would be Minnesota who could offer Wiggins and a couple of draft picks for Westbrook. I do agree Bledsoe is a better option with Giannis and Middleton. I would really prefer Beal but I am not sure how the Bucks could get him without trading Bledsoe to another team. Ideally a Hill, Beal, Middleton, Giannis and Lopez would be pretty freaking awesome. Depth wise the Bucks would be hurting but I am not sure there is a team in the East that could stop that starting 5. The Nets come close but Middleton and Lopez become the deciding factor in a 7-game series. I'm shocked that the Thunder got as much as they did to swap Westbrook for Paul. Now they're basically working with Paul to try and work out some trade to get him to a team he wants to play for. I wasn't too worried, but I never wanted to see the Bucks get Westbrook. It'd give them a much better team on paper, but obviously a terrible fit. Now if they're just looking to move Chris Paul and try to save some money along the way, I'd definitely be all for adding Chris Paul. I don't see any realistic trade that could happen, I don't see who we could trade that would match salaries. I mean, Bledsoe+Ersan is still about 12 million short. Chris Paul can still play though and he'd make the Bucks a much better team. He can still play, he can still shoot, he can defend(not like Bledsoe, but he's got really good hands and anticipation and can create turnovers). He's definitely slowed down, but I'd still place him among the top 5-6 PG's in the NBA. Middleton+Bledsoe+Indy's draft picks+draft swap rights for the next two picks we do have for Paul and Shai Gilgeous Alexander and then throw in Patrick Patterson? Again, this got .000001 pct chance of happening. We're not dealing two guys we just signed and I don't see why OKC would trade a guy who's compared to Bledsoe but "a much better shooter and 6'6." So they play the same style and are similar, Bledsoe is more explosive, Alexander is the better shooter and an very long PG. Man, with no TPE and really no flexibility, all we can do is dream. And I am dreaming of a Chris Paul/Gilgeous Alexander/Matthews/Giannis/Lopez with Hill/Pat C-Brown-DDV/Peterson/Wilson/Lopez as the bench with Thanasis, Maye, maybe Fletcher Magee or whoever. You get the superstar in Paul now, the young future star in Alexander and you plug and mix and match the 3-4 spots. Wilson gets more PT and maybe you pick someone up later in the year. Now that's what I'd do....If I was playing NBA 2K or whatever.
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I think the only chance he'd have of making it to the big leagues this year is if the Brewers were competitive and they felt he had enough innings left. I doubt they'd risk him throwing in the big leagues if the games didn't matter. I don't think we'll see him either way, but challenging for a playoff spot is the most likely scenario.
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OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
OnTheBlack replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Agreed. Some prospects (Turang, Grisham, Ashby, Rasmussen, Supak) would require a king's ransom of sorts in return. Turang, absolutely. Rasmussen...he looks like a really promising pitcher, but he's also had two TJ's. Grisham...meh, he's coming on. A "kings ransom" though? Unlikely. Ashby is a nice young lefty. Not the type that you need a kings ransom for and Supak? I guess maybe our definition of kings ransom are vastly different. -
OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
OnTheBlack replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think this sentiment will extend straight through the trade deadline. Pretty much every team in contention can outbid us if they want to. It's going to be a couple of under the radar moves and not much more. The players we have are going to have to play better. It's pretty much all about this. If Aguilar can keep his little mini-resurgence going, that'd be great. Shaw figuring it out would help, but that'd be a bonus at this point. Cain, Aguilar, Chacin, Burnes all need to perform closer to what they're capable of. If that happens and it need to start to happen in the next couple weeks, then it makes sense to go out and add a reliever. If those players don't get it going, then selling a few select players would make more sense and go into next year trying to re-load and bounce back. -
I think that's just a default comp because he looks the same and plays the same position. Hardy moved much-much faster through the system, didn't really produce much. Struggled in rookie ball, then for some reason skipped LowA, jumped to Brevard County and AA in his first full season at 19, then at 20 put together a strong season at AA. Anyway, Turang is more athletic than Hardy. He doesn't have the same type or arm or hands defensively, though can probably cover more ground. And he(Turang) should hit for a higher BA and Walk quite a bit more. I think 30 SB's a year is far more likely than 30 HR's a year. Though possible he does both. I like the Trea Turner comp the best. A Hiura/Turang combo atop the lineup could be really good for a while.
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Is it time to consider moving Hader
OnTheBlack replied to brewers888's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
[sarcasm]Can you make them take Claudio as well?[/sarcasm] Seriously though, I think we're looking at having a loaded BP next year even if you take Hader out of the equation. If Hader can bring you back an elite haul, you have to consider it. I honestly like the idea of trading away a few assets, rebuilding or maybe more accurately re-loading quickly and then going for it. The other option, trading for players would require guys like Turang and that just doesn't seem worth it. Ray, Grisham...those players I'd be alright with, especially assuming Ray bounces back and ends up with a decent line and his value is restored. If we're going to part with someone like Hader though, I'd hope we'd get two elite prospects. I actually like the Forrest Whitely+Alvarez type deal...but that seems pretty far fetched. But I suppose that's your point. If someone offers that type of deal, take it. If not, his value probably won't change substantially over the next year and a half. -
Is it time to consider moving Hader
OnTheBlack replied to brewers888's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Oh god no. Please no more. I'm in favor of starting a go fund me page so I can stop hearing about what you believe the Brewers payroll should be! -
Wut Yeah, that's just not at all true.
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2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
OnTheBlack replied to sveumrules's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
It kinda blows my mind that a guy who was at one point considered the top pick in the draft last year and who comes and starts out the year in Low A, hovers around .300/.400 all year long and has great speed doesn't make the top 100. But hey, if Grisham is this highly regarded, this would be a good time to trade him IMO. If we don't come out of the break and go on a little run in the next 20 days, everyone should be made available, but if we do, Grisham should be the top prospect we push. I think we have a better system than others. First of all, I think we need to start rethinking the "just a pen arm," phrase as though it's a huge deterrent. Really good pen arms as I think Ponce will be, Rasmussen will be, or others make everything easier. Hell, our first round pick this year could be used in a manner similar to Hader(*we're not going to find another Hader, but we CAN use pitchers similar to how we used Hader last year when he was most effective). That's nothing to sneeze at. You can live with a rotation with...for argument sake, Woodruff and Burnes at your top two guys(there's really no question Burnes is capable of being a TOR arm. Not an ace, but a good #2 and Woodruff is already a really good #2). Peralta could be a #3/4 or a nice reliever. And then you have about 10 guys who could be really good relievers by next year. You can afford to lean on the pen and go to them early and often if you have one or two guys who can go 6-7 each time out and you have a deep and versatile BP. The Brewers don't have a Padres like system(obviously) but they have one where they can fill in just about any other spot. They have a utility IF'er who looks like he could hit in Dubon, we have a good looking young loogy in Daniel Brown, we have a ton of young catchers, never know who'll stick there. The difference is, this system is exciting if your big league team is performing like it should be. If Peralta, Burnes, Aguilar, Shaw, Moose, Grandal, Braun, Cain, Yellich, Arcia, Jeffress, Hader are all performing a reasonable amount above or below their expected performance. Instead you have Peralta, Burnes, Aggie, Shaw, Cain performing about =12 WAR below they should be. Jeffress and Arcia doing enough to kinda go under the radar, and just Yelly, Woody, Hader, Moose, Grandal the only ones meeting or exceeding expectations. -
2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
OnTheBlack replied to sveumrules's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
How about Dubon?

