The coach has a good angle, if all it takes is a throw in the vicinity, you probably only have a 5-10% chance of scoring. But with 2 outs, if it takes a good play from the OF, a good throw to the cut off man, a catch and a good throw to the C, and the C to catch it...that's 5 things that have to go near perfectly. If they do those well, the runner might be out by 15-20 feet...if the OF throw is off, or the 2B bobbles it, or doesn't get a good grip on the ball, or can't find the catcher, or throws it on a short hop that's hard to catch, you might well score. Again, it's math. Even with Braun up, you're only going to score from 3B with 2 outs 35% of the time...if you have a chance to win the game on a small mistake by an opponent, you go for it...and tell them good job if they can make the out.