TJseven7

The problem though is that in proving your point you disprove your point. Earlier it was said you do whats best for MKE not the big market team who buys him next. Ok so 4 years Randy HOF Johnson was dominant but struggled. He caught fire and poof FA. Miller was tried as a starter for years. Caught fire at 27 in the pen. He was a 3.1 war at 32. His career war is 8.7. Thats 6 pretty amazing years in the pen offset by some negatives leading up to 27. So what's best for MKE. A shot at a 2-3 year window where he could become an ace. Or every controlled year bringing in close to 3 war? Do we capitalize off of his talents now or do we groom him for something bigger in the hopes it'll 1... happen and 2... happen while he's still here. 1st go round... 47 ip... on pace for 3 war in 80 ip. Is it worth the risk that you could mess that up? Miller was a starter until 27. His best war was +.1. His last 4 years he piled up the majority of his value. We talk about Hader being a poor mans miller but the fact is that hader accomplished more baseball value in his first 47 ip than miller did before the age of 29. So your argument is you'd rather take what you see as a virtually guaranteed dominant late inning reliever to pair with Knebel versus gamble on a potential stud starting pitcher that may take some time to develop? First off, what do you mean 2-3 year window? If Hader can get to 150-160 innings this year, he'll be virtually unrestricted next year. Maybe skip a start or 2 if we are looking at playoffs. He's under team control for at least 5 more years. If he's an absolute superstar SP in his late 20s, imagine what we can get for his last 1-2 years of team control in prospect value. Heck we could wait to the deadline of his last year and get a haul for half a year of Hader. And that's not including us potentially offering an extension to buy out a year or two of free agency. It's not a question, if you think Hader has a reasonable shot to be a dominant SP...that's the route you go. No brainer. No reliever is as valuable as an ace starting pitcher. We control him 6 years. In the Randy Johnson example it took 4 years to get there. 2 years of controlled window. Even if theres a chance he becomes an ace its not going to be as simple as give him 150 innings give him 200 ip tadda ace. He's not Kershaw. He has a lot to develop and alter. If he's an ace we can buy out extra years... not in this era.

Met him at 1145, I'm staking out the place going forward, I will ask about Archer and Arrietta next time. I'm sure he will be upfront and honest. Ask him the softball questions that he might open up about. What does their scouting or numbers say on Chacin that make them think they can improve his numbers vs lefties. And is Gallardo a pen guy or starter competition. Both of those are secured targets and are braggish answers so maybe he'd open up a bit.

I agree that it's unfair to ever compare anyone to a Hall of Famer. There just aren't many other guys to compare Hader to, because I have never seen anyone make guys like Bryce Harper and Joey Votto look foolish. So, Hader is 23 and had 12.84 K/9 and 4.15 BB/9 in his first season in the majors as a 23 year old. Johnson made it to the Expos in 1988 (born 9/10/63, so he was around 25 when he was called up), when he threw 26 innings. The Expos traded him to the Mariners during his rookie season, a year in which he struck out 7.26/9, while walking 5.38/9. He didn't get his K/9 above 10 until 1991 when he was 27/28 years old, and that year he walked 6.79/9. It wasn't until 1993 that he finally learned to keep his walks down. Even while walking guys like crazy, he had value as a starter, accumulating 10 WAR in those 4+ seasons, and averaging around 6 innings per start. Once he got some control, he became a dominant force who somehow was able to keep it up for a looong career. I would guess that some here would have been lobbying for the 25 year old who couldn't throw strikes and only had two pitches to be moved to the bullpen, or just kept in the minors until he learned how to throw strikes. Heck, the Expos traded him away. Fortunately, the Mariners saw enough from a guy who had definite control issues and who threw his fastball/slider combo around 95% of the time to keep him in the rotation. Eventually the control came around and his tertiary pitches got good enough for him to throw them around 10-15% of the time and he became the Randy Johnson everyone knows. Comparing anyone to Randy Johnson is unfair, but we have a guy who can do things to hitters that other pitchers just cannot do. We need to try to maximize the value of this guy while we have him because, as others have said, he is the best option we've had for a homegrown #1 starter since Ben Sheets. By the way, even with the walks, Johnson was often able to keep his WHIP in the low 1's because he was so hard to hit, but he never posted a 0.99 WHIP like Hader had in his age 23 season... but Hader will never be a starter because of his control issues. You make many good points. So many of you think "this is what he is" with Hader...that he's a finished product at age 23 and won't improve/adjust. Sale has had years and years at the mlb level to work on and hone his changeup. Hader's has been improving his entire time in the majors. I can again point back at the stat of how many top tier SP started their career relying heavily on the fastball, throwing it 65-70% of the time...which is not far off from how often Hader uses his. And to those saying using Hader 3 times a week is more valuable than every 5 days as a starter clearly have no idea what they are talking about. Good bullpen pitchers generally throw 80 innings in a season...80 is a lot. Starters throw 200. Would you rather have 200 good innings or 80 good innings? In this case, Hader would be limited to 160ish most likely...160 > 80 last I checked. The problem though is that in proving your point you disprove your point. Earlier it was said you do whats best for MKE not the big market team who buys him next. Ok so 4 years Randy HOF Johnson was dominant but struggled. He caught fire and poof FA. Miller was tried as a starter for years. Caught fire at 27 in the pen. He was a 3.1 war at 32. His career war is 8.7. Thats 6 pretty amazing years in the pen offset by some negatives leading up to 27. So what's best for MKE. A shot at a 2-3 year window where he could become an ace. Or every controlled year bringing in close to 3 war? Do we capitalize off of his talents now or do we groom him for something bigger in the hopes it'll 1... happen and 2... happen while he's still here. 1st go round... 47 ip... on pace for 3 war in 80 ip. Is it worth the risk that you could mess that up? Miller was a starter until 27. His best war was +.1. His last 4 years he piled up the majority of his value. We talk about Hader being a poor mans miller but the fact is that hader accomplished more baseball value in his first 47 ip than miller did before the age of 29.

"I think he's going to suck." -David Stearns Stearns grabs his wallet... pulls a 20... pulls a lighter out.... sets it on fire. Yeah that's what I did, only bigger!

Ha! If i was within ear shot and I heard you bring up h/r splits to him I'd have been mortified for you. That's awesome!

It's Briggs... you take the good with the huh

Which makes this a better deal IMO. Such a tradeable contract if he pitches to expectation and we are not in contention. If we are in contention it likely means he is performing and then it is a great signing. Chacin probably isn't the type of guy that would be sought after at the deadline. But he very easily could be a trade candidate next offseason if prospects pan out. One year of a cost controlled starter on a contract year... Depends on you definition of sought and who is in the mix. If he's having a Morton like season and there's a team in the wc hunt that wants to go in... but not all in. He's in the range of reasonable demand that could bolster a team yet not drain the farm. I could see a buyer in the middle ignoring the Darvish types and Q Gray types and tossing 1 good prospect for a quality arm who is controlled 1 more year at a reasonable 6 mil. Someone with a shallow farm and a couple wants.

And yet, he was still worth the inclusion.

Prospect for prospect deals happen basically around never. Well then those are the odds I deal him.

For 2 years of Odruzzi... no As a piece for Archer... no For multiple top 100 not quite mlb ready prospects... I'd listen to that. He wouldnt be untouchable but I'd want to be the team trading him who wants to speed up the arrival of their farm, not the other way around. He jumped up rankings nearing his arrival but wasnt highly highly touted. He's still unknown but he's here now. If someone wants now over more... i like more. Do I think hader fperalta pass him as a starter. Nope. Do I think Burnes and Ortiz do. Probably but I dont think they run to the majors as quickly as others do. You also have to factor in Davies arby starts next year and if he doesn't sign a team friendly extension he's getting sold off before that price spikes. (Aka santana) chacin is 2 yr... Nelson is??? I'm not trading ready for a possible upgrade and shorter control. Im only trading ready for more. 2b, OF youth, pen and 5th starter are still questions that adding archer doesn't remedy if we trade woodruff. If we can't answer those you dont trade a huge package to get archer now.

Wasn't Jeffrey Hammonds from the rockies inflated numbers era an all time suck?

I guess what im getting at is people here scream every year about our 7th inning man coming in to face the top of the order and the 8th inning man coming in to face 5-8. The role dictated to the inning not the talent. Some claim its comfort. Some claim its nonsense. But we can't have a starter regularly going 5 and this version of hader likely would. It kills the pen and our pen isn't deep. Unless the innings can be eaten in another way. If hader leaves a 2-2 game after 5 I'm not willing to give the ball to suter for 6-9. If suter leaves a game after 5 at 2-2... I'm absolutely willing to say hader finish it. Love knebel but I put no one over hader. Knebel is equal in my eyes. It sucks due to the pitcher batting in the nl. It's a trade off but its also big picture plus for hader and for the pen. I don't think saying hader you are starting today in the 6th is the craziest notion. Or saying hader you are starting in the 6th today behind woodruff or tomorrow behind suter. If the starter falters before the 5th ends you bring in a good arm to get us to hader. Hand him the ball and tell him to go be a starter that finishes.

Now there's ways to meet in the middle here. Like hand him the ball in the 6th and say situation be damned he's a short stint ace and its his game to close out or blow it. Give him that usage every 4 to 5 days. Use him as a loogey on his throw day. Tell him to throw all his pitches. If he starts looking like a starter out of the pen piggy back him with woody or suter and say thats our 9 innings today 5 ip 4 ip. Then demote suter if hader keeps thriving. But if you start him you rely on suter to spare the pen innings. If you start suter you trust hader to be a close the door ace to rest the pen. I dont love high leverage suter... i don't worry about high leverage hader at all.

I'm not going to disagree with your stance. I see the validity in it... but do you see him being a quality starter when the book on him is quickly becoming, take your cracks at his FB (and even sitting dead red good luck) because everything else doesn't hit the zone. If its not the heater... which many do their best to pepper... there's a lot of guys already daring him to throw off speed for a strike. He's not hurting them for letting those go. It was pretty constant. Fb ball, fb foul, slider ball, fb foul, slider ball, fb foul, fb K. Lot's of high pitch outs on many nights.

Last season the Brewers got starts from: Matt Garza, Junior Guerra, Paolo Espino, Tommy Milone, Brandon Woodruff, Wily Peralta. These are guys I would consider our "5th" starter a season ago when you leave Nelson, Anderson, Davies and Suter in the top four spots. The combined stats of these guys is the following: Starts: 57 (over a third of the games, these turds were taking the ball for us. Gross) Record: 15-20 ERA: 5.64 Now... Do we not think a guy like Chacin could move the needle and have gotten us another win last season that we needed to make the post season? The more guys we sign like Chacin, possibly Gallardo, and whoever else comes next means we hopefully won't have starts like guys I listed above. And yes, I realize I included Woodruff in there but he just wasn't that good last season. Hit the wall most would say. Agree with everything above except your final point on Woodruff. Prior to his final start where he was donkey slapped he was posting a 1.23 whip, 2.9 BB9, 8.2 H9, 7.1 K9, 3.76 ERA through first 7 starts To be fair 3 of his last 4 were kinda rough. 5ip 6er, 7ip 3er, 5ip 4 er... 2.1 ip 6er. First 4 starts 1.52 era in 23.2 ip Last 4 19er in 19.1 ip... we know the era on that :-) Even the 3 before the early bounce were 17 ip and 13 er. 6.88era.

And his early season funk doesn't look like a 1 year thing from the look through I did on his games logs. April Chacin and Davies could be ugly... but if those 2 link up their mid season groove it could be a fun stretch.

That war came from Petco. No one thinks he is a 3 war pitcher away from there. He is a solid 5th starter. However he is currently our replacement for Nelson. Now do the math. No i said he averages 3 war per 180 ip. Not averaged. Last year his home road splits were a crazy dusaster and he picked up his 2.8 war due to the home park. But his career is 1023 ip with about 18 war. 170 ip per 3 war. And 1 year of that was petco. A big bunch was colorado.

Brew4U: Yeah did the math too. 280 innings between garza peralta guerra espino milone. War -3.2. Chacin averages 3 war per 180 ip. So to be precise...er... 6 wins. Even if woody and anderson pick up 200 extra ip (anderson 200 woodruff 180) in full healthy seasons. 250 ip missing to cover scraps and nelson. Chacin 180. Suter as the 5 would have to go from 80 innings to 150 to break even. It would block Ventura and Derby (really?) but I think thats a risk we should take. The list is suter wilkerson Jungemann maybe guerra maybe gallardo and late season Burnes. Any other mention is really out there.

Susac is brutal. Brutal. There is no reason to have him on the 40 man. You have pina vogt bandy. Nottingham is still young. Protecting him makes sense but Susac is not good or young. You can trade for a farm hand just as good for a pizza and a case of beer. The most glaring *** on the 40 man by a large amount. I agree that guys like drake webb can go. Baker is logical. Hell Guerra Wang and Lopez can go too. But susac literally offers nothing. I'd rather they let perez catch. We know perez can't pitch better than the arms. I'd set perez at the -300 favorite at being a more impactful C than susac.

Don't fret. Suter still is a near lock to make the team as a long reliever and has an excellent shot to take the 5th starter spot if Hader stays in the pen. The Crew spending $16 million over two years to get numbers that could have come from one of Suter, Jungmann, Hader, Ventura, Burnes, Ortiz, or Derby for a grand total of about $1.5 million. This guy pitched half his games in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors. Lucroy or Neil Walker would have been a far better use of the money. Lucroy... a 32 year old catcher who fell off a cliff in average and power despite playing in colorado part of the year is the guy you want? So petco made chacin but coors didnt salvage lucroy? Lets not mention pina was 2 war better. Lets not mention the years chacin pitched in colorado? Peralta garza guerra milone espino pitched 280 innings for us at -3.2 war. You have 450 ip to replace in starts alone adding nelsons. Anderson with health gets 60. Woodruff with health gets 140. 250 left. Suter pitched 80 started 14... got to 6ip 4 times. I'm an optimist on wilkerson jungemann suter woodruff but you are asking a whole lot of them to get the 3 war chacin averages every 180 ip. Chacin basically takes Nelsons spot. Woodruff takes the 4. Still need a 5. Chacin didn't exactly block suter wilkerson or jungemann from taking that spot. Gallardo certainly doesn't prevent anyone from anything. Its also pretty telling that Jungemann pitched great in CS yet never got a call up. Wilkerson got 2 short starts despite being stretched. That's not a big show of faith.

For sure. I discuss this with friends of large market teams all the time that just don't get it. Any mistake that the Brewers make is amplified because the resources of the MLB is nowhere close to equal. I'm not blind to that at all. It's why Stearns approach is probably for the best. But I just want to win. I want to stop being a doormat to other franchises. I think the people of Wisconsin would go crazy if we figured out a way to win one and contend for awhile. I get so aggravated when I see these national sportswriters go on facebook/twitter and say a salary cap wouldn't help with competitive balance, it would just help greedy owners pocket extra money. I mean, are they just that stupid? Don't they find it a bit strange that only a handful of teams sign all the best free agents every year? And until recently ended up with the best international free agents and prospects? Do they wonder why the yankees/dodgers/red sox/cubs/etc are consistently in the playoffs while most of the small markets can go extended stretches of time without making the playoffs? I know I strayed a bit off topic, but the big market advantage is frustrating enough...I don't want to see national sportswriters trying to say it isn't an advantage. The international talent was always where my head spun in regards to this baseball uncapped stuff. You can run baseball uncapped, it surely benefits the big markets but it can be overcome... unless you do that AND let teams buy a way around the draft. Buy tons of big contracts, check. Trade our farm for more talent, check. Buy a new farm?????? Wait what? Buy expensive talent ok... that I get. Pay big bonuses to buy cheap controlable talent too... oh no no no no. I'm stunned some small market didnt min cap their team 2 years and buy international talent for their farm instead. Draft high and get a deep farm system fast... granted the big markets would probably have priced them out if they saw them try. Its great that's changing because that was a big big problem.

Sounds great to me. Hader has quite a bit more value to me pitching 3 times a week in high leverage situations than 1+ a week as a #5 starter. Absolutely. This is 2018, not 1978. High end relievers who can go 2 innings in high leverage situations are gold these days but they don't cost as much as TOR starters. Not to mention there are zero reasons to believe that he will fail as a high leverage rp... while there are plenty of concerns out his ability to even be a useful 5 starter. I've been in the keep him in the pen camp with a brief... hell why not start him....stretch of days prior to Chacin. I know the desire to see if he's ace capable but I feel we'll start seeing signs of it with him in the pen. Like he puts up 3 straight appearences where he gets a high leverage 7th inning and 29 pitches later Hader just game overed them. He comes in in the 6th and CC just smiles and says ok you arent coming out. 42 pitches 6k 4ip 1h 0bb... and tadda. At that point, the group who wants him starting has my full undivided allegence. The 20 pitch CLEAN innings aren't making me think starter. Not to mention, and maybe its my preference and bias seeping into what I see, i think stearns is looking for quality stuff quality start horses for the rotation while putting big knock out arms in the pen. Maybe its a durability thing. Maybe its a numbers thing. Maybe its a small market value thing but it sure does seem like we tell our arms to pound the zone and get deep into games.

He really hasnt though. 2010 2011 were good. 3.3 era 137 ip... 3.6 era 197 ip respectively. 2012 made 5 starts got rocked... was out 3.5 months and closed the season well. 9 starts 44 ip sub 3 era. 2013 good 3.5 era 197 ip Dealt with injuries in 2014 2015 16 games 15 starts total...4.8 era 2016 was coming back off two short years 144 ip 4.8 era 2017 back to 180 ip 3.9 era. Guys seems a lot like Davies... starts slow and gets into a groove as the season goes on. Health permitting. When health keeps him from his every 6 day rhythm his results fall. But that type that has some ugly months but also strings together 8 starts sub 2 era in between. His 4 undisturbed years were 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.9 era. 137 194 197 180 ip. His bad years were 69 63 26 and the year of 144 ip following back to back 63 26 ip years. The concern shouldn't be about him being bad it should be about him getting hurt. Maybe its the fact that he hasnt been heathly or fully back the 3 years prior to last year that sours opinions. Worst case...Would seem like an awesome guy to pair with Suter in that partner start strategy. 4ip chacin 3.72 for career counting rough injury shortened stints. Then Suter vs a LH stacked lineup for 4. Bait and switch.

Patience restored with Chacin. Could be a savvy pick up if their numbers can sort him out with lefties. If a few more of these trickle in Ill be happy.

He's a big strong downward plane Zach Davies results (not style) starter. Better stuff, still doesn't wow but control durability play at the mlb level. 200 ip sub 4 era. Feel like he's going to sharpen one of his 3 offspeed offerings and further learn how to use them. Not calling him an ace to TOR but he's 23 in AA and I expect him to jump from teen-early 20s prospect to clear member of the rotation. That's breakout. Davies results....huh? Ponce was at age level in A+ this past year with a 1.292 whip, 9.8 H9, 7.1 K9....at that same age Davies was starting in MLB posting 1.249 whip, 9.1 H9, 7.4 K9. Davies minor league numbers smash Ponce and did all being plenty young for level. Yup he's 23... send him to the glue factory. No chance he improves. If you arent under 21 you suck. No way he can match Davies results at the mlb level. Never!!!! I mean he's 23 and not in the majors yet. Just shoot him already and stop wasting the oxygen. Great take. We have a make a prediction thread so some high and mighty twit can tell others they are stupid? Very welcoming place we have here. PS... despite your degree of smug in your response Davies numbers aren't much better than Ponce but hey if you say it with attitude people believe you.... so keep it up. The only stark difference is Davies started in the minors at 18 and Ponce at 21.