TJseven7

Cue the East Coast media reports that "the Brewers are desperate to trade Hader because they can't afford to keep him"... Oh they've already started that garbage.

Cue the East Coast media reports that "the Brewers are desperate to trade Hader because they can't afford to keep him"... Oh they've already started that garbage.

Fantasy baseball redraft logic. No concept of value or money.

Fantasy baseball redraft logic. No concept of value or money.

I would hope we would not hesitate on bringing in one of the Top 5/Top 10 Third Basemen of All-Time due to cost. So names matter more than value you to? I mean I don't think Donaldson is the right path but I'd rather pay him 120/4 and keep the value than trade the value for Arenado. He's likely a negative value contract over the life of his deal.

I would hope we would not hesitate on bringing in one of the Top 5/Top 10 Third Basemen of All-Time due to cost. So names matter more than value you to? I mean I don't think Donaldson is the right path but I'd rather pay him 120/4 and keep the value than trade the value for Arenado. He's likely a negative value contract over the life of his deal.

Papelbon didn't get super 2. Papelbon had 1 more AS game under his belt. Papelbon was a closer from the jump and we all know how arby over valued saves back then. He probably wins because MKE had him closing games last year. Knebel injury hits MKE again.

Papelbon didn't get super 2. Papelbon had 1 more AS game under his belt. Papelbon was a closer from the jump and we all know how arby over valued saves back then. He probably wins because MKE had him closing games last year. Knebel injury hits MKE again.

First off Trout is locked in until 38 at 35-36 million dollars a year. He's THE player but the value there is pretty well paid for in full. I mean what do you think his worth is 40 mil per, 50 mil per? You have to put his value pretty high to make him a valuable contract. Hader's underpaid and looking to a guy in years 35-38 is murky so negative value could swing back on the gains Trout makes in the present. Hader doesn't get there. Betts is also in that same territory so I don't see those as good examples. If you are asking if Trout make a bigger impact than Hader. Yes, significantly. He's the best player in baseball. (He's better than Yelich but I certainly wouldn't trade Yelich for Trout due to their contract value.) I'm saying that any player who is considered equal trade value to Hader on the field will not make the same impact as Hader. I'm saying that the SP prospect you get for Hader is going to effect the team era less than Hader and in a lower leverage position. Trade value for Hader will not match his worth or impact. If you get fair, you lose the deal. If you get a significant gain in value you'll likely still lose the deal. You need something bordering on stupid for the price to be worth considering. I believe the DS is willing to trade Hader rumors are cannon fodder. I don't think he's even considering it. I think we got a heck of a player and the media of other teams want him so they are making garbage up. Oh the Brewers are poor they can't afford his arby increasing, better be the lowly team that you are and sell him off to a real contender. That garbage. DS kicks every tire and turns over every stone. He's not dealing Hader, but he's smart enough to listen to people talk because the more they talk the more information they give up. Basically, we got the hot GF and everyone's looking. They might talk, they might try, it ain't happening. People talk, trolls troll, reporters chase and rumors about nothing pop up. He's tied to Yelich Hiura and Woodruff. "Cause everyday stars are far more valuable than a reliever who pitches one pitch 95% of the time and averages less than 1 inning every other day." Now I get it. You expect him to fail. Ok. As for Cory Seager 2 years Arby 2 and 3. Pass.

First off Trout is locked in until 38 at 35-36 million dollars a year. He's THE player but the value there is pretty well paid for in full. I mean what do you think his worth is 40 mil per, 50 mil per? You have to put his value pretty high to make him a valuable contract. Hader's underpaid and looking to a guy in years 35-38 is murky so negative value could swing back on the gains Trout makes in the present. Hader doesn't get there. Betts is also in that same territory so I don't see those as good examples. If you are asking if Trout make a bigger impact than Hader. Yes, significantly. He's the best player in baseball. (He's better than Yelich but I certainly wouldn't trade Yelich for Trout due to their contract value.) I'm saying that any player who is considered equal trade value to Hader on the field will not make the same impact as Hader. I'm saying that the SP prospect you get for Hader is going to effect the team era less than Hader and in a lower leverage position. Trade value for Hader will not match his worth or impact. If you get fair, you lose the deal. If you get a significant gain in value you'll likely still lose the deal. You need something bordering on stupid for the price to be worth considering. I believe the DS is willing to trade Hader rumors are cannon fodder. I don't think he's even considering it. I think we got a heck of a player and the media of other teams want him so they are making garbage up. Oh the Brewers are poor they can't afford his arby increasing, better be the lowly team that you are and sell him off to a real contender. That garbage. DS kicks every tire and turns over every stone. He's not dealing Hader, but he's smart enough to listen to people talk because the more they talk the more information they give up. Basically, we got the hot GF and everyone's looking. They might talk, they might try, it ain't happening. People talk, trolls troll, reporters chase and rumors about nothing pop up. He's tied to Yelich Hiura and Woodruff. "Cause everyday stars are far more valuable than a reliever who pitches one pitch 95% of the time and averages less than 1 inning every other day." Now I get it. You expect him to fail. Ok. As for Cory Seager 2 years Arby 2 and 3. Pass.

Big decision since they are 2.3 million apart. Being his 1st arby this sets the tone of the next 4 years. Hader's asking for the moon for a guy in Arby 1.

Big decision since they are 2.3 million apart. Being his 1st arby this sets the tone of the next 4 years. Hader's asking for the moon for a guy in Arby 1.

It's always dangerous to trade with the smart ones. I'd tread carefully.

It's always dangerous to trade with the smart ones. I'd tread carefully.

You are being overly pessimistic and overly optimistic. You sign someone more safe they too can flop. You sign someone inexpensive they can flop. It's real simple. If you have 20 bucks and you see a 3 plausible solutions to your problem that cost $8 and you were wrong, you have $12 dollars to do something about it. If you spend all 20 so that you feel warm and fuzzy about your choices and you are wrong, you are broke and stuck. The best path is to buy on a budget. Before you say, you get what you pay for it truly doesn't play out that way in professional sports. Usually the bottom is fair to low of fair. The middle is vastly overpaid. The top is incredibly expensive but for good reason. It's best to load up options that your numbers believe in. Hope the numbers play out and every hit is a gain because every hit will prove a steal. Every miss is something you can work to replace. The model is options and fiscal based. The less options you have the worse your chances are of hitting. The less flexibility you have the less likely it becomes that you can solve problems as they arise because they can arise anywhere. No one is good enough to predict that perfectly. The old saying, want to make god laugh, tell him your plans. In a perfect market situation sure. This is not that market. Also, beyond a certain point you hit a point of diminishing returns where gain becomes unnecessarily expensive. This is a belief I've formed watching MKE and a few other analytic roster forming teams operate. It's a logical shift from the money ball era. Buying players to buying wins. Well at first this is great because no one else is buying wins. After time plays out, numbers get better and become more readily accepted, you can't just buy wins because you aren't alone. The next logical step is to find out what metrics you have to hit to get to a desired win total. Where gains become unnecessary. Where shortcomings explode into record sinking issues. Then you cross reference that with money spent and risk taken on. There's definitively a point which those numbers all cross in an optimal way. It has to exist and I believe the teams who have bought into the front like of analytical roster building see this and operate in that manor. They are trying to weave their way to 95-100 wins because any team in the playoffs has a chance to win the series. If you can repeat this yearly, without overloading on risk and cost you have the opportunity to push your chips in at times, buy at times when the market cools down, etc. You stay prepared to pounce because you, in theory solved the current issues as inexpensively as possible and held back flexibility money while riding low long term risk options. I mean look at the buys from last deadline. Dubon traded for Pom. Matthias is basically Dubon. Lyles got for a song. What they achieved by getting them was OPTIONS cheap. If your metrics are good and you throw enough options at a wall, enough of them will stick. It's not a crystal ball philosophy, its a probability philosophy. That's MKE. I liked Chacin's addition in 2018 but otherwise I was dumbfounded by the way they structured their staff at first. Never seen something like that. Then I looked into the philosophy, into the Astros and realized this was a "new dawn" type of idea. In 2019 I was nervous because they didn't stack the same depth in the pitching staff. Right now I'm nervous because they haven't stacked the same depth in the pitching staff. I didn't come up with this idea. I learned it from them. I sampled their strategy because it worked and it has nothing to do with being right. It has everything to do with maximizing chances to be right. This has brought me to the crazy conclusion that I want MKE to add Cashner and Sanchez as relievers on the cheap. Will it work, I don't know. There's reason to think it could and having options to be correct is a great thing. Especially with a bullpen for of guys who can be stashed in the minors to start the year. Sogard, Gyorko, Healy, Lomo, Braun, Smoak for the infield corners. You could roll the money spent on everyone (nix braun) into 1 guy and it wouldn't make it any safer or productive. Everyone of these low market guys are paid what they realistically deserve. If they tank, its a slight overpay. If they spike (and I'm sure their numbers point to that probability as a distinct possibility) then they are a big value and hitting 1 makes up for all the other misses due to their low cost/risk. Team options galore also points to this. Why buy low for 1 year when you can opt into a 2nd steal of a year if they rebound or do what your metrics assume possible.

You are being overly pessimistic and overly optimistic. You sign someone more safe they too can flop. You sign someone inexpensive they can flop. It's real simple. If you have 20 bucks and you see a 3 plausible solutions to your problem that cost $8 and you were wrong, you have $12 dollars to do something about it. If you spend all 20 so that you feel warm and fuzzy about your choices and you are wrong, you are broke and stuck. The best path is to buy on a budget. Before you say, you get what you pay for it truly doesn't play out that way in professional sports. Usually the bottom is fair to low of fair. The middle is vastly overpaid. The top is incredibly expensive but for good reason. It's best to load up options that your numbers believe in. Hope the numbers play out and every hit is a gain because every hit will prove a steal. Every miss is something you can work to replace. The model is options and fiscal based. The less options you have the worse your chances are of hitting. The less flexibility you have the less likely it becomes that you can solve problems as they arise because they can arise anywhere. No one is good enough to predict that perfectly. The old saying, want to make god laugh, tell him your plans. In a perfect market situation sure. This is not that market. Also, beyond a certain point you hit a point of diminishing returns where gain becomes unnecessarily expensive. This is a belief I've formed watching MKE and a few other analytic roster forming teams operate. It's a logical shift from the money ball era. Buying players to buying wins. Well at first this is great because no one else is buying wins. After time plays out, numbers get better and become more readily accepted, you can't just buy wins because you aren't alone. The next logical step is to find out what metrics you have to hit to get to a desired win total. Where gains become unnecessary. Where shortcomings explode into record sinking issues. Then you cross reference that with money spent and risk taken on. There's definitively a point which those numbers all cross in an optimal way. It has to exist and I believe the teams who have bought into the front like of analytical roster building see this and operate in that manor. They are trying to weave their way to 95-100 wins because any team in the playoffs has a chance to win the series. If you can repeat this yearly, without overloading on risk and cost you have the opportunity to push your chips in at times, buy at times when the market cools down, etc. You stay prepared to pounce because you, in theory solved the current issues as inexpensively as possible and held back flexibility money while riding low long term risk options. I mean look at the buys from last deadline. Dubon traded for Pom. Matthias is basically Dubon. Lyles got for a song. What they achieved by getting them was OPTIONS cheap. If your metrics are good and you throw enough options at a wall, enough of them will stick. It's not a crystal ball philosophy, its a probability philosophy. That's MKE. I liked Chacin's addition in 2018 but otherwise I was dumbfounded by the way they structured their staff at first. Never seen something like that. Then I looked into the philosophy, into the Astros and realized this was a "new dawn" type of idea. In 2019 I was nervous because they didn't stack the same depth in the pitching staff. Right now I'm nervous because they haven't stacked the same depth in the pitching staff. I didn't come up with this idea. I learned it from them. I sampled their strategy because it worked and it has nothing to do with being right. It has everything to do with maximizing chances to be right. This has brought me to the crazy conclusion that I want MKE to add Cashner and Sanchez as relievers on the cheap. Will it work, I don't know. There's reason to think it could and having options to be correct is a great thing. Especially with a bullpen for of guys who can be stashed in the minors to start the year. Sogard, Gyorko, Healy, Lomo, Braun, Smoak for the infield corners. You could roll the money spent on everyone (nix braun) into 1 guy and it wouldn't make it any safer or productive. Everyone of these low market guys are paid what they realistically deserve. If they tank, its a slight overpay. If they spike (and I'm sure their numbers point to that probability as a distinct possibility) then they are a big value and hitting 1 makes up for all the other misses due to their low cost/risk. Team options galore also points to this. Why buy low for 1 year when you can opt into a 2nd steal of a year if they rebound or do what your metrics assume possible.

Respectfully, no. Hader is as important as it gets. Whatever his trade value is approximated at, MKE would be worse off dealing him 1 for 1 for an equal trade value OF 3b SS etc. All those bats of equal trade value would have less impact than Hader. Any SP who has equal trade value to Hader pitches in lower leverage situations and would have less impact. It's a question of value and worth. His worth far exceeds his value and you only deal him if you aren't planning to win. Guys who can pull down the team ERA are insanely valuable. It's what makes Cole get 300+ mil. He covers a lot of sins and as MKE has shown 4.0 ERA guys are easy to find. Its the guys who drag that ERA down from 4 that make or break your team. As I pointed out. Hader alone dropped the pen ERA by 0.22. That's covering a lot of sins and you don't fix that with a bat because a bat can't end a game whenever an advantage is in place. "It's about improving the run differential in the aggregate among all 26 players on the roster." You will not make up that difference and impact. It's not as easy as you are making it out to be. It's much easier to manufacture above league average totals at a position than you believe. The gains you assume your gaining aren't as significant as you dream up. The loss of Hader would be dramatic. It would turn wins into loses. There's absolutely no way to manufacture that and the rules of the league made it even harder to do.

Respectfully, no. Hader is as important as it gets. Whatever his trade value is approximated at, MKE would be worse off dealing him 1 for 1 for an equal trade value OF 3b SS etc. All those bats of equal trade value would have less impact than Hader. Any SP who has equal trade value to Hader pitches in lower leverage situations and would have less impact. It's a question of value and worth. His worth far exceeds his value and you only deal him if you aren't planning to win. Guys who can pull down the team ERA are insanely valuable. It's what makes Cole get 300+ mil. He covers a lot of sins and as MKE has shown 4.0 ERA guys are easy to find. Its the guys who drag that ERA down from 4 that make or break your team. As I pointed out. Hader alone dropped the pen ERA by 0.22. That's covering a lot of sins and you don't fix that with a bat because a bat can't end a game whenever an advantage is in place. "It's about improving the run differential in the aggregate among all 26 players on the roster." You will not make up that difference and impact. It's not as easy as you are making it out to be. It's much easier to manufacture above league average totals at a position than you believe. The gains you assume your gaining aren't as significant as you dream up. The loss of Hader would be dramatic. It would turn wins into loses. There's absolutely no way to manufacture that and the rules of the league made it even harder to do.

Has anyone ever had 26 roster spots?

Has anyone ever had 26 roster spots?

I love the pieces people refer to as dumpster diving. Healy, LoMo, Peterson, Tuffy is dumpster diving. Basically free and with no promise of a MLB roster spot. Smoak Sogard Lindblom Anderson and Gyorko are dumpster diving? People seem to forget Garcia too. Fangraphs (imperfect I know) valued Smoak at 43.9 million over the last 3 years. He was paid 16.25 million over the last 3. MKE paid him 5 mil. Sogard was valued at 24 mil over the last 3 years. MKE pays him 4.5 Lindblom was the Cy Young out of the Korean league. 2018 STL snagged Mikolas out of Japan on an 8.75/1. He throws 2.83 ERA ball and he spins a solid year into 68/4. Then falls to 4.16 ERA. MKE is prospecting much the same on Lindblom. If he hits, they have him locked up unlike STL was able to do on Mikolas. Brett Anderson was valued at 29.7 mil over the last 3 years. Has been paid upwards of 16 mil a year earlier in his career when he was healthy. MKE 5/1. Gyorko worth 27.3 million over the last 3 years. Was paid 30 million over the last 3 years. MKE scoops him cheap. I guess what I'm saying is. You all have much nicer dumpsters than I do.

I love the pieces people refer to as dumpster diving. Healy, LoMo, Peterson, Tuffy is dumpster diving. Basically free and with no promise of a MLB roster spot. Smoak Sogard Lindblom Anderson and Gyorko are dumpster diving? People seem to forget Garcia too. Fangraphs (imperfect I know) valued Smoak at 43.9 million over the last 3 years. He was paid 16.25 million over the last 3. MKE paid him 5 mil. Sogard was valued at 24 mil over the last 3 years. MKE pays him 4.5 Lindblom was the Cy Young out of the Korean league. 2018 STL snagged Mikolas out of Japan on an 8.75/1. He throws 2.83 ERA ball and he spins a solid year into 68/4. Then falls to 4.16 ERA. MKE is prospecting much the same on Lindblom. If he hits, they have him locked up unlike STL was able to do on Mikolas. Brett Anderson was valued at 29.7 mil over the last 3 years. Has been paid upwards of 16 mil a year earlier in his career when he was healthy. MKE 5/1. Gyorko worth 27.3 million over the last 3 years. Was paid 30 million over the last 3 years. MKE scoops him cheap. I guess what I'm saying is. You all have much nicer dumpsters than I do.

I don't think the Marlins would be seen in the same light if their binge and purge years weren't so incredibly dramatic. They burn it down as violently as anyone. It's gives a bad perception.

I don't think the Marlins would be seen in the same light if their binge and purge years weren't so incredibly dramatic. They burn it down as violently as anyone. It's gives a bad perception.

Surprised he was the 1st to go, but fully expected him to go.