TJseven7
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Everything posted by TJseven7
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Can we send them Ray Henry and Webb and be done with it? "Overpay" while not giving up anyone I believe has a pulse.
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Well per AB Bref has Omar and Pina at roughly the same WAR. 1.1 per 220 AB. Looking at the catcher market and expectations, Castro is going to cost twice as much money. C and 3B were going to be tough to fill. I'll happily take him. If they give him away, I'll very happily take him.
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Zack Wheeler to Phillies - 5 years/$118
TJseven7 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Why? Because he is right? If it isn't about money no one is going out of their way to pick Milwaukee except very rare exceptions. I never mentioned Milwaukee in my post. It was a simple statement that it isn't ALWAYS about the money as some say it is, so I'll save both of your efforts to complain just to complain. I'm not complaining. I'm just pointing out that I don't care if it's "not always about money" unless that angle helps Milwaukee. I want the wife driven discount. Ok so I'm complaining that they got a discount. I'm still not complaining at you. -
Yes, but you can compare catchers and see Narvaez gives up exponentially more than other catchers. Part of a catchers job is pitch framing and stopping wild pitches to help out his pitcher. Narvaez is a real big negative on the pitching side when he takes the field. I don't think it is some coincidence. Narvaez is definitely poor at blocking pitches...how poor, we will find out. He has been in the league 4 years, every year he has that same problem. Two different teams and many different pitchers. Not saying it's a complete fluke. I don't expect a good defender behind the plate. However, the two teams he played for were CWS and Seattle. The other guy pointed out that SEA was under performing vets and kids. I know CWS also has a lot of kids. Both teams struggled. It's 2 teams and a bunch of arms, sure, but aren't both teams in the same mess? Are we giving him too much blame for the pitchers maybe? Also, Grandal isn't known to gun runners out. You said this. MKE pitchers aren't good at holding runners. You said this. Yet, Grandal managed to be average at throwing out runners. How does that add up? Average arm, bad at holding runners, average at CS. This catcher D stats stuff.....
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But isn't a passed ball credited to the C And a wild pitch credited to the P Could they have just been overly wild?
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Wouldn't wild pitches be more on the pitcher than the catcher, though? Seattle's pitching in 2019 was a mix of veteran underperformance and inconsistent youngsters. Isn't that the same with CWS. Hmmm, wonder if that would effect all of his defensive metrics. Maybe we'll never know. I mean, if he is better here it'll be because he improved, which may or may not be true. Now that I think of it, isn't CS stats partially dependent on the pitchers ability to hold a runner?
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I'd be disappointed, but not surprised. Narvaez has 3 years of control, is looking at a $2.9 million salary this season, and provides legit offense at a position where it is rare to get it. Brewers are going to have to give up something pretty valuable for that I fear. This isn't a Yelich-level "get", but it is hugely significant nonetheless. It's not THAT far off Realmuto though. 3 years of control. Realmuto started off at 5.9 mil per. Yes, Realmuto is significantly better defensively and had a longer track record but the price for him was quite high.
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Seattle is in huge need of pitching. I'm going to guess Corbin Burnes or Freddy Peralta. Perhaps Small, Ashby or Rasmussen. The return is gonna sting a little. A poster earlier stated they are looking for pitching and my 1st thought was, "I guess we'll see what they think of Burnes." If it's Supak and Nottingham, I'll be thrilled. Ashby Rasmussen or Small would be unfortunate. Not that I've given up on Burnes but I could justify it to myself that they think he's a big risk now. Peralta I could justify because I see him as a RP. The 3 younger guys have done nothing to present a degree of concern yet.
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I'm NOT (oops) trying to dispute that quality work is being done in regards to this metric. I'm not disputing that this is a great post. The evaluation is still flooded with issues, regardless of how many outcomes you test. A catcher could have his frame rate tanked for a year if he catches for a young staff with high end movement that hasn't been harnessed. Umps show bias, it's human. The opposite could happen with a veteran staff. That has nothing to do with the catcher. This is the same thing as star fouls in the NBA. Bias is unavoidable. Putting that credit onto the catcher isn't quite as dramatic as giving QBs credit for wins, but it's on the same road. On top of that, does it factor in spin rate, degree of break into the "did he steal a strike" evaluation? Location as a determining factor isn't enough. Movement of the pitch surely matters. Pitch type isn't good enough. Actual movement comparisons need to be done. Luck of the draw exists, no matter how many outcomes you test. It'll be a constant variable that needs to be omitted over the whole but will not present itself at a constant degree upon any individual no matter how many outcomes you test. I'll read into these links. Thank you, but like many dynamic analytic measurements, I'm fairly certain that this is another case of "best we can come up with" more than accurate. There are aspects that you can weigh, like the value of a strike, but there are parts of this you still can't touch even with the technology they are using currently.
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Martín Maldonado Vogt? Other fun lines in the story. MKE signs Grandal 18/1. CWS trades Narvaez to Seattle. CWS signs Grandal 18/4. MKE trades for Narvaez.
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And they factor in the ump, batter, pitcher bias. Home road bias. A slew of factors you don't know unless you can read minds. It's a judgement call and you don't have the variables to calculate that properly. It's the best we can do is not accurate enough to trust. It doesn't matter that they assign a number to it. You could likely eye test it and guess a number just as accurately. That why they've gone from WAR to all the new calculations because WAR wasn't good enough. I highly doubt anything like subjective like pitch framing is documented accurately.
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That's all well and good but if you can't measure it, it holds no water. So let's agree that it matters. But you can't quantify who is good at it and who is bad at it because they can't factor the variables needed to measure it. So you can't show it's statistical impact. That kills it's validity. As I said above with missed tackles. One guy misses 3. Can't move. One guy misses 20 and gets to 15 the other guy couldn't touch. Who is worse at tackling? Is 5 worse than 3 or do you give credit for impeding a play on 15 misses? That's the biggest issue with the new analytics craze. In many ways its golden. In many ways it's given far too much credibility when they can't factor it accurately. We aren't even talking off by a bit. We are talking no where close. Eye tests being validated by numbers created by an eye test. It's a mess.
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See, and this take I'll accept as reasonable. It puts pitch framing in the same group as missed tackles. People grade it miserably. Guy misses 20 tackles and he's bad but they don't factor in range and the fact that 75% of those missed tackles were tackles that 90% of LBs don't attempt because they don't have the range to get there. In that 75% the missed tackle is actually a positive because they at least impeded the play to a degree. Saying it's valuable but the measuring stick is flawed is completely reasonable. But then who is actually bad at it? It makes the critique invalid.
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And there's this quote "He graded as one of the game’s worst framers in 2018 but did make strides to average levels last year." So basically no one seems to agree on which catcher is actually good at defense. They can't even agree on when Narvaez was at his worst/best.
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Zack Wheeler to Phillies - 5 years/$118
TJseven7 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It’s not ALWAYS about the most money. Sure, find the guys married to women from Wisconsin. Not the Midwest because then they'll go to a CHI or STL. Wisconsin. -
I was hoping this year was a year of patience setting up a big 2021 and 2022. Urias and Narvaez sure fit that narrative. Urias more than Narvaez because the latter should be now. "Overemphasis on poor defense is the new market inefficiency!" Analytics crowd: Ok, so we are going to tell them stealing is foolish and that it's all about the launch angle. As soon as they buy into it, we'll load up on hitters in the infield who can't field because the ball won't go there anyway. Hook line and sinker! Genius!
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I've never seen anyone making that claim back that up with anything. I'm hoping you'll be the first. Back up that it has an impact. I've watched umps blow calls that were framed perfectly. I've watched them make calls properly when the pitcher was 3/4s of a plate off his spot and the catcher swiped at it. I do not buy that these umps are that easily swayed, or at the very least swayed to a point that has a statistical impact. It's an old school fairy tale. It has as much to do with the umps bias towards a pitcher/batter as the catchers "skill." Besides, bring the machines. Additionally, wasn't there a metric defensively that Grandal was miserable at? I thought I remembered something when he was signed. I know there was a stretch where he struggled with the decision to back hand a low pitch or block it.
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Framing is the most overrated non-issue in sports. I wonder if the team is devaluing the CS rate because teams aren't running like they used to.
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Yeah, as I hold my breath. They needed to do something. C and 3B were shaping up to be issues without much of an answer. C can be taken off the list. 3B is still very murky. I wasn't overly excited about 6/2 on Castro or Avila for 6/1.
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Rated worst starting catcher defensively. Welp. Ref has him at oWar 7.4 and dWar -.1 over his first 4 years. 2019 being the only negative in the bunch. It might be an adventure but it doesn't seem like it's enough to make him a negative. Offensively that platoon is very solid in the 7 spot.
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LHB Catchers seemed quite thin on the market. Offensively this is a big get.
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I've always liked the potential he has. He seems like a late bloomer though. I could see him improve as a pitcher as he ages and be one of those guys you want at 31 for an 8/2 type contract. Just seems like a guy who will have a couple season moment in the sun before he's done.
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Notable non-tenders across MLB
TJseven7 replied to Fear The Chorizo's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
In the past, I noted he had played alongside Gold Glove/All-Star shortstops. He has played some shortstop in the majors, and played third base and center field in the minors. There may be some rust to shake off, but I think Hernandez could be a good bench guy at the very least. In case he had been non-tendered, I'd have signed him to play short, with a similar plan to what the Brewers are doing with Urias. With how bad the 3b market is below Rendon and Donaldson I'd consider him there. He's not the traditional power bat but if he can OBP 360 again I don't care about power that much. Lowish K, high ish BB. 280/360/750 does the trick as a temporary solution. Gausman is a very nice idea. I've wanted Teheran Miley and Lyles but Gausman makes a ton of sense. Sign me up for Walker absolutely. Just for the upside of it. The question is how flexible is he with his roster status. I'd do a couple mil if he's willing to start off in the minors to get sharp or start off as a multi inning guy in the pen. -
Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
TJseven7 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Why does spending and estimated 27 mil on Dallas Lyles and Miley force us to trade Hader? How does it prevent you from spending on inexpensive filler options at 1b 3b. Or are you just here to push your idea in another thread? Your post has literally nothing to do with PITCHING! -
Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
TJseven7 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Teheran 9/2 Miley 8/1 Lyles 6/1 please Sorry to those who want multiple starters going 6 IP.