TJseven7

With Yelich Braun Garcia and Cain as the top 4 OFs, I think Broxton just got a bit more interesting. RF and LF are covered. Gamel shouldn't sniff a start there. The only place a sub starts is CF. If an injury pops up, Taylor is waiting in AAA. Just saying.

I don't dislike Gamel. I just don't think he's a CF. Can play it and being a good CF is very different. Broxton is a better CF than Gamel and if you don't expect to see any starts at LF/RF it makes sense to have a true CF as the 5th OF. It also makes sense with Taylor being stashed in AAA as the 4th OF in case of injury. As for hitting LHP, our entire OF crushes it. He won't fetch much obviously but he'd get a lottery ticket and Broxton is cheaper.

Also curious.. What is the least MKE could do and be ready for the season. Woodruff Anderson Houser Lindblom Lauer Knebel Hader Peralta Suter Wahl Black Claudio 1 pitcher short and there really isn't anyone else who NEEDS to be up. Although Lauer, Wahl, and Claudio could be optioned. Lose Taylor Williams, Deolis Guerra and Jake Faria. Added J.P. Feyereisen and Eric Yardley. Narvaez Pina XXX Hiura Urias Arica XXX XXX Yelich Cain Braun(1b) Garcia (Gamel/Broxton) Looks like 3 are missing. I doubt Rodriguez or Mathias make the opening day roster. Lose no one due to a lack of options. 40 man is at 37. Guerra TWilliams Faria seem like the 1st 3 to go. I'm thinking at minimum MKE has to add 4 more MLB roster guys. They could go up to 4 arms and 3 bats if they drop those 3 off the 40 man and David Freitas or Rodriguez.

So you have: Cain Hiura Yelich XXX Narvaez and you don't think Braun or Garcia are good enough for that spot? I'm hoping it's Cain Yelich Hiura Thames/Braun Garcia Narvaez 1-6 and I don't see how a RHB is missing in the middle unless Braun is hurt.

Cain Hiura Braun Garcia Yelich Narvaez And you are worried about RHB? Back on topic. I just don't like Frazier. I don't like the low avg, or the low OBP, and the highish Ks. Due to having Hiura's impact bat at 2b, MKE can give up a bit of power at 3b and succeed just fine. Short of Donaldson, no 3b makes a big impact. I'd much prefer someone like Wilmer Flores. I see him being to MKE what Josh Reddick is to HOU. (but a lot cheaper)

If starts fall as assumed the question that springs to mind is: Does MKE trade Gamel? Yelich Garcia Braun will take up every LF/RF start. The only starts available should be at CF to spell Cain. Do you keep Gamel as the 5th OF or do you deal him and keep Broxton since he is a better fit at CF? If you need a 4th OF due to injury you have Taylor in AAA awaiting his call up. Makes a lot of sense to flip Gamel for a prospect or to add a guy who fits the roster better.

130 Garcia RF Yelich 32 Cain CF as much as he can, 5th OF the rest (Gamel, Taylor or Broxton) Yelich 112 in LF, Braun 50 Braun 62 at 1b, Thames like LH 100 Done. Exactly. A lot of people are all bent out of shape about Grandal and Moose. Narvaez helped a great deal. Moose played 40 starts at 2b. We lose 96 starts of him at 3b surely. However, we should gain about 70 from Hiura at 2b. We lose that big bat for about 66 starts. Gamel started 65 games. Unless Cain is hurt that's not happening with the current roster. Shaw started 58 games. Can't do worse. Aguilar started 78 games. Not good, and those are basically Braun now. Grisham was promising but he also wasn't much better than Gamel. You put Garcia in place of a number of Gamel and Grisham starts. You put Braun in place of Aguilar. Those are some upgrades. Anyone is an upgrade over the games Shaw played. The team is not going to feel the loss of Moose/Grandal as much as people think they will. They don't even need a great 3b. The lineup won't be as good as it was when Moose was at 3rd and Hiura was at 2nd but there was a long stretch of the season where that wasn't the case. That stretch had a lot of Aguilar and Shaw. I joined the party late. I was in after Lindblom and Narvaez. Anderson instead of Gio works for me. I had Garcia as a target. This offense looks very good with Thames LH platoon mate for Braun's 1b time. Flores primary 3b. Why, snap, he doesn't strikeout. That's around 10 mil. The last spot I keep toggling on. Holt to back up 3b and defensive sub 1b (and a ton of versatility and OBP) or a RH 1b/PH bat with Urias as the 3b sub. My question is regarding Gamel Taylor and Broxton. Makes a lot of sense to deal out Gamel, keep Broxton as the CF sub, and stash Taylor as OF 4 when an injury pops up.

So if Anderson pitches well he gets paid the same as Miley. Wade Miley is a year older. Wade Miley is signed for 2 years not 1. I don't see this as a "why not both" situation. I was hoping MKE brought back Gio. Anderson fits that mold but was not on my radar. Miley was lower on my list than Gio. It wasn't just his last month though, his whip spiked in August, then Sept/Oct imploded. August was pretty lucky. Guy fell apart the last 2 months of the season. He got through 22 starts very well. The last 11 are concerning. I'm fine with this. Good luck to him.

But only 81 games are held at Miller Park. That is his full season spray chart. So maybe up to 25-28. If he hits 39 or more in a season I will streak one of the last Home games in the next 2 seasons. Career 751 OPS. Only 1 season where he was on pace for more than 20 HRs. If he puts up 25 to 28 he could be well above 800 OPS. That's nearly a 10 HR spike for him off his career averages. If he can do what he did in 2019 for the next two years and 5-8 more balls clear the fence, that's a heck of a player. And his betting on himself is going to pay off.

How about 62 starts. That's all he needs to make this fit perfectly.

MKE was highly motivated to get Garcia. Well you don't say. Never hit over 20 HRs. If he gets up close to 30 his OPS is well above 800.

People aren't counting again. Yelich you'd plug in for about 144 starts. That's what he played year 1 with MKE and coming off the knee he likely won't play more than that. People are pointing to Braun playing 144 games last year. He started 113. Let's put him at 112 for easy math. Garcia's career high is 146 starts. He's typically been under 130. Let's start him 130 games in RF. That leaves 32 for Yelich in RF where he's not a GG. Put his remaining 112 in LF where he is a GG. Braun gets 50 starts in LF. 62 starts for Braun at 1b pairs very nicely with a Thames return or a power LH 1b. Makes a lot of sense. Covers RF LF and 1B with strength every game. Now there are 2 GGs in the OF most days. 5th OF reserved for a CF to sub Cain. We've been over this in the days of Santana. Loading 1b platoon and OF 1-4 to power the lineup and leave a nice bundle of PHs on the bench. It's a creative way to take pressure off the 3b offensive need. Garcia is not a 4th OF. Braun's starts will not get cut. It fits just fine. 3 mil over the AAV projections is a little steep, but I like how he fits in MKE. Braun is not a RF, Yelich is not at his best in RF. A RF was a bigger need than people want to believe. It allows Yellich to be maximized. Flores Holt Thames fills out this offense very nicely.

It's not just last year. He's career 2.76 as a reliever. 114 IP 11 K/9

No Ashby Rasmussen or Kelly either my friend.

There are a lot of good baseball players still out there. I could easily find a use for 32 million without overpaying for crap or paying anyone over 6mil AAV. (I was at 44 mil roughly with my wish list and Anderson takes the spot of Hill or Gio). Granted it would force a lot of "guys" off the 40 man. The question is will they spend on the pen and depth. If we go ahead with Faria Black Wahl and a no name utility IF as locked in 26 man pieces, they'll certainly cut a good chunk of payroll.

There is a reason MKE starts every season with 10 SP options in their back pocket and usually adds a guy or two during the year. It's not sustainable if you pick 5 guys for 5 spots. If you pick 12 guys for 5 spots you can miss on 7. That's the trick to it. Would it be more likely that Cole and Stras are aces than Lyles and Miley. Yes. That's why they cost 30 million a year. But MKE has found: 35 start Chacin 3.5 era (35 192.2 75) 16 start Miley 2.57 era (16 80.2 23) 5 start Gio 2.13 era (5 25.1 6) total 56 starts 5.33 ip per start 3.13 ERA and 17 start Gio 3.5 era (17 81 34) 11 start Lyles 2.45 era (11 58.2 16) total 28 starts 5 ip per start 3.22 ERA In back to back years. Basically, by rummaging around and rotating multiple options until something sticks MKE has generated an ACE out of thin air every year. Did better in 2018 than 2019 obviously. These guys didn't cost 30 mil. They didn't even cost the 17 MadBum just got. That is a lot of starts and a lot of innings at 3.2 ERA for a fraction of cost that you'd expect for those numbers. You never know which one its going to be. You could miss the boat entirely. However, if you have 10-12 options instead of 5 the chances of it netting something between these 2 isn't some crazy statistical anomaly.

It's pretty amazing too. Chacin year 1 was a steal of a contract. It's a shame we didn't sell him in the 2019 offseason. 2019 he was miserable and poof Gio Lyles and Chacin is gone. Here we are in 2020 and where's that mistake. Nowhere. Shaw looked like a piece, he fell on his face. He is, nowhere. Anderson got tossed due to cost. Davies got traded entering late arby and may have netted us a player who is a lot like him with 5 years of control instead of 2. That's the way you do this. Wash rinse repeat. If anything MKE should be more aggressive about trading players after the 1st year of their deal if they have additional years. Lindblom blows up this year. Sell him to the highest bidder and try it again. FA is a terrible place to invest in every single sport. Baseball adds to that with fully guaranteed deals that stretch well past a players athletic prime. I've wanted Braun's bloated deal gone for 3 years and he's still a good player. He's just paid too much. People are a little concerned about Cain's deal entering year 3 of 5. Yet, we have a crowd here that wants to pile the roster full of them. That's not the way you operate in a sport where contracts aren't fully guaranteed where payroll is fixed. How in the world do you think that's a good idea for MKE?

It sure did seem like the law of averages blessed the team in 2018 and bit the team in 2019.

You and your facts! Thanks for posting. And will likely cost HALF as much because RF is easier to fill than 3b.

Woodruff Anderson are in the rotation... 2 Lindblom Houser are in the rotation but are possibly best suited for the pen... 4 Lauer you would assume will start in the rotation but he has options... 5 Suter Peralta are emergency options in the rotation and are best suited for the pen... 7 Burnes is absolutely on the radar but should start in AAA. 8 I believe we still need 2 more. Nothing flashy but 2 more. A guy like Taijan Walker if he is willing to pitch out of the pen if he doesn't earn a starting rotation spot out of ST. Other options like Gio Hill would fit well. There is a ton of flexibility in this staff right now. They need 1 more guy who is absolutely in the rotation and 1 more guy who could earn a spot in the rotation. It's not meant for the rotation but I also want Collin McHugh pretty bad. I see him as a RP/CL but he could be another guy next to Suter and Peralta.

I want to chime in to say that I REALLY appreciate when you go into numbers like this. Honestly, when anyone goes into a deep dive around here and take the time to put this banter into actual fact, it's highly appreciated. I think the DS model has taken its hold on me and I'm very blah about this signing. I see 17/5 and go, "Well, we could add 3 arms for that price on 1 year deals and if proper roster flexibility is used we eliminate long term risk and can get the same (or better) results than just paying MadBum." He's a good pitcher and even if he's dipped his numbers have still been good. If he can last 5 years and pitch 200 ip 3 of those 5 then good for them. We could get 400 similar innings from Anderson Linblom and a guy like Walker or Gio and have no risk beyond 2020.

I'm curious what your house, car, and bank account look like. Sense the YOLO is strong in him, you do?

In 2020, no. I'd continue to shop the FA market, the only time I'd consider doing that (where the team is currently) is if the FA market completely fell through. I'd assume opportunities would be less likely at that point in FA. Even if FA fell through, you could improve the team around the trade deadline by taking on salary. I think it's a good idea for teams who are rebuilding. MKE isn't rebuilding.

To be technical Jeffress was a 3 year deal but it had team options every year. (I believe) Was he in charge of the Anderson arby buy out?

That would be way too generous. A lot of teams don't have what would qualify as a #1 and you have innings limits that stop some of the better pitchers in the game from counting. There are fewer than 10 ace pitchers in the game. Now if you want to go with say 20 #1's it wouldn't bother me, but 30 is too many. It is going to skew things to where a lot of really mediocre guys look like #2's. But people shouldn't talk out of both sides of their mouth on it. Not referring to anyone directly. Sure there are only 20 true aces. But then the perception of what a 2 is doesn't fit the numbers at all. Soon you are saying all we have is 4s and 5s. But you are looking at pitchers in the top 100. That's not a 4 and certainly not a 5. I agree that there aren't 30 1s. But you can't bemoan 4s and 5s when they are actually 2s and 3s by league comparison. Our perceptions of what pitchers qualify as, doesn't fit the reality of it. We also know from watching this team that the only time this team struggles is when they have actual 5s and 6s like Burnes Peralta and Chacin in heavy rotation.