Jopal78

Look at the pitchers you cited, and it proves the point: contending teams hardly ever move elite pitching to avoid losing them to free agency. Snell--traded after the 2020 world series in a salary dump with 3yrs and 40 million left on his contract. Archer-traded in 2019 a season which Tampa missed the playoffs and finished 18 games behind in their division. Cobb- you didn't bother to look; he left as a free agent. Odorizzi-traded after 2017- a losing season for Tampa. David Price-mentioned previously, was traded amidst an 85 loss season. Hellickson-traded after the aforesaid 85 loss season. Matt Moore-traded during a 96 loss season. Drew Smyly-traded after the aforesaid 96 loss season James Shields--This might be the sole example of where they moved elite pitcher during a period where they contended, but he wasn't an impending free agent at the time. Its fun to play arm chair GM, but even amongst the players you cited above Jansen, Kimbrel or Corey Knebel are all a downgrade and (depending which Kimbrel you get) all are a significant downgrade. Second, JD Martinez (similar situation when folks here were clamoring of Castellanos) won't need to take a one year deal, he'll have multi-year offers.

The Brewers are in "Win Now" mode. There are extremely few scenarios where a team in a "Win Now" mode trade elite pitching talent and manages to get better. Not even the Rays (as you point out) do it. Sure, David Price was traded as an impending free agent, but the Rays were in the midst of an 85 loss season that year. Yes, they traded Cy Young winner Blake Snell but it was after he had already signed an extension and they wanted to get out from under his contract. In their pennant winning campaign of 2020, they had Charlie Morton on an expiring contract, and they kept him until the bitter end knowing he was going to leave as a free agent. Further, whatever Hader's salary would be in 2023, the front office would not be doing their job if they didn't anticipate their essential players' salaries in the coming years and plan for them accordingly (Cain, McCutchen, Narvaez and Wong [club option] are all on expiring contracts). To do otherwise would place them in a situation (ala Ken Griffey Jr. in 2020) where every team would low ball them because it was common knowledge they would be trading the player at some point. Its a different paradigm if the team was an also-ran; but being built to compete with the big boys, not to mention the dwindling control of a highly regarded GM, there isn't likely going to be a re-tooling or rebuilding with this group of players. They're most likely going to keep their foot on the gas and the next front office group can figure out the plan once the team is no longer a legitimate World Series contender.

I don't really know if teams "win" or "lose" trades like these; there are too many variables. Most of these are what I would call a "push" trading spare parts for rentals, role players and/or organizational depth. For example, Caratini has become the personal catcher for Burnes, but otherwise he's a prototypical journeyman back up catcher: closing in on 29 and with his 4th organization since turning pro. Of the two players traded to get Caratini, Brett Sullivan is already 28 and a seven year pro, who has yet to debut in the majors, and Howell has decent hitting stats in the low minor leagues, but originally was a 12th round pick. I think the Brewers are happy with Adames and Tellez and would do those trades over again, but there's a fair chance Rasmussen, Feyereisen, (and Richards to a lesser extent) will likely produce more WAR with their teams than Adames and Tellez will with Milwaukee. Which isn't a dig at Adames or Tellez, rather it is a byproduct of those other players having significantly more team control remaining before free agency (4 more years each for Rasmussen and Feyereisen vs. 2 more years for Tellez and Adames).

It is probably even more simple than that: Mathias was hot at AAA, while Dahl was not. Both are nothing more than organizational soldiers. Moreover, the Brewers are not going to be concerned about DFA'ing Dahl, he's playing for them on his second consecutive minor league deal, he probably can opt out or ask to be released anytime he wants.

Every manager seemingly has favorites on the bench whom they pencil in all over the diamond. Before Peterson it was Hernan Perez and Eric Sogard. Ron Roenicke had a thing for Elian Herrera, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Ken Macha gave Counsell nearly 700 plate appearances. The Brewers aren't unique in this endeavor.

I don't think there ever was much of a chance of the Brewers trading him. Hader's current production has him on a Hall of Fame trajectory; and Milwaukee is a contending club. I don't see a realistic path where a contending team trades away a Hall of Fame caliber talent and get immediately better as a result.

Maybe I did misread it because what you actually wrote is illogical. No MLB team is going to trade major league players to acquire an impending free agent like Martinez or anyone else. Further, it’s not 2008 anymore and teams very rarely trade major league ready talent for rentals. What is more, the Red Sox and the Cubs are nothing alike. The Red Sox are viable in the playoff chase (the Cubs we’re not) and with a 200 million dollar payroll are not afraid to lose players to free agency. (Moreover, they actually sort of have a history of keeping the free agents they determine are essential, but whatever). The Cubs alternatively began cutting payroll (Darvish) before the big sell off even occurred. Finally, there is a huge difference between what cliches a GM feeds the media pool and what decisions they actually make. As far as I can recall in the last 20 years the Brewers haven’t traded for a player at the deadline with a high seven figure salary let alone eight figures like Martinez. I doubt that changes anytime soon.

No, more probably true than not Seattle and Detroit will sell off whatever veterans they have coming out of contract. They won't break up their teams and start over because they never were serious contenders to begin with. Nonetheless, the Mariners have some high pro-file rentals they could/will trade: Mitch Haniger, Adam Frazier, Jesse Winker, Sergio Romo etc. Likewise, Detroit has Michael Fulmer, Michael Pineda, and Wily Peralta (!!) As pointed out earlier, Toronto and the White Sox have been outscored by opponents on the year, the fact they ahead of Boston in line for the 6th wild card spot is a testament to lucky breaks, but their deviation should regress as the season continues. I don't know if you watch the same Cubs teams that I see, when they broke up their team they didn't get players who could "help them this year and next year" they got Nick Madrigal- former #4 overall pick, diminutive slap hitter with no power to speak of, 29 year old rookie Frank Schwindel, and Codi Heuer. Everyone else they acquired in the sell off was in A or AA years away from the majors. To the point about JD Martinez, Boston isn't the kind of franchise that sells when they're around .500, they add. If they implode between now and July (which I personally doubt) they might move some impending free agents, but they certainly aren't going to pay cash to do it (or without getting premium blue chip talent in return) which would rule out Martinez or any other high pay veteran coming to Milwaukee

I don't see why not? With how well the Yankees have started a Division Championship is probably a long shot. BUT, the expanded playoffs were created exactly for a team like Boston. They've had a little bad luck so far as they're 3 games under .500 but have outscored their opponents in the aggregate. If Sale comes back healthy, that's essentially adding a #1 Ace pitcher. I'll grant you the Yankees, Astros, Twins and Angels have all played better than .600 baseball which gives them a nice head start, but it's highly un-probable that all four teams will continue to play at that clip. Conversely, Seattle is already 8 games under .500 and trending the wrong way coming off being swept in a four gamer. They have the same record as Baltimore and are only one loss better than Oakland two teams who are rebuilding. With Kansas City and Detroit already being 12 games under .500 they're likely close to playing for next year as well. Even assuming those top four don't falter that still would leave two playoff spots in the AL. Tampa looks to have an inside track on one of those spots, The sixth spot however is wide open. Both Toronto and Chicago have negative run differentials (-10 and -22 respectively) which suggests some luck has played a part in their winning records. Likewise, Cleveland and Boston have positive run differentials (+5 and +1 respectively). Cleveland and Boston are both 3 games under .500. And who knows about the Rangers they've kept their head above water but lost 100 games last year. If they only lost 80 this year it would be nothing short of a huge turnaround for that team. I really do think with the expanded playoffs any team hanging around .500 at the end of July is going to either stand pat or make moves to get better, especially the big market clubs. It will be the Tigers, Royals, Mariners etc. who are the sellers.

It is highly improbably Boston will be "sellers" come the end of July. The Red Sox are currently hovering near .500 (19-22) (Pythagorean 21-20) at the quarter mark of the season. There is a ton of baseball left and Boston should get both Chris Sale and James Paxton back at some point this summer which would be a significant infusion of talent to their pitching staff. Now, with six teams making the playoffs from each league, any team around .500 is going to be in the hunt. In fact, Boston is currently the 8th best team in the AL, two games behind the #7 team Chicago, and 3 games behind #6 Toronto. If anything they will likely be buyers trying to put together one more run with their current group of stars.

There isn't a Bryce Harper, or Manny Machado in AAA; in fact, a 35 year old pitcher with over 200 major league innings of experience should be pitching well against the kids and mostly organization soldiers that make up today's AAA leagues. Even with good number this year, his AAA statistics (against inferior talent compared to that of the major leagues) aren't all that eye popping to begin with. If Lindblom is one of the Milwaukee Brewers 5 best options to be in the starting rotation, it would mean its a totally lost season anyways.

He’s got a big guarantee salary wise but a guy with a .470 OPS has to get it going sooner or later or they’ll have no choice but release Cain. I think almost any hitter they have in AAA could better a .470 OPS in the majors.

538 had Hillary winning too. Look, the Cardinals are like the Indians/Guardians they have a ton of warts and people denigrate then then when the dust clears they’ve won 85-90+ games. Heck, they went out and got washed up Jon Lester and JA Happ last year and put them right into the rotation and still won 90 games. I don’t think this year is any different.

Exactly, if he was just half of what he was last year, that would be a 2.9 WAR player. So even if it was a career year never to be repeated a 2.9 WAR player is someone you plug in your lineup everyday (Don't forget Hiura is substantially further removed from his 2.1 WAR season than O'Neill is from the 5.8 WAR, yet there are a not an insignificant number of folks here still believing Keston is going to be that guy again). Frankly, I hesitated to mention the gold glove as I anticipated the old Rafael Palmeiro defense. Point is, O'Neill's WAR wasn't all offense, defensively he was more than half a win better than a replacement, but that is more wordy than gold glove.

Maybe because we watch the Brewers and see them everyday there's some distortion so I guess I'd go to the stat sheets for comparison. In St. Louis Arenado is at .938 OPS and Goldschmidt is .927 and Edman is at .801 all having played nearly every game. The Brewers OPS leader among regulars is Rowdy Tellez at .803, then Renfroe at .796 then Adames who is at .766. The best of the Cardinals lineup is far and away better than the best of the Brewers lineup. However, it does look like the Cardinals have given over 650 at bats approximately to players with a sub. 700 OPS (Molina, Dejong, O'Neill, Bader, Carlson, Dickerson, Sosa and Nootbaar) while the Brewers have given only approximately 320 at bats to players with a sub. 700 OPS (Cain, McCutchen, Taylor, Caratinia, Jackson). It is worth noting since the beginning of May both Brendan Donovan and Juan Yepez have been quite productive and have taken at bats away primarily from Dejong (minors), O'Neill, and Dickerson where as the Brewers play Cain or Taylor every game. I guess we'll see how it plays out, if the Brewers offense is better with a lower ceiling thatn St. Louis but a higher floor. It probably depends on which players on each team get hot and for how long.

Come on, and get real. Tyler O'Neill was a 5.8 WAR player last year, super-star level production. In a different context, he's a two months and 133 at-bats removed from a season with a .286/.352/.560 line with a gold glove. If O'Neill can figure it out be just half the guy he was last year, his WAR would still top anything Hiura has ever done.

They got rid of a ton of productive players after '92: Molitor, Bosio, Plesac, Dante Bichette, Scott Fletcher, Kevin Seitzer (only to reacquire), Darren Holmes, no wonder surprise when they took a faceplant in '93.

I don't know if I agree. I think top to bottom they're better than Milwaukee offensively. They have the best 3B in the NL Central in Arenado, they have the best 1B in the division in Goldschmidt. They have the best 2nd basemen in the Central in Edman. Pujols has been productive and so have rookies Brendan Donovan and Juan Yepez albeit in a small sample. Now they're adding Gorman who has big time power. With possibly O'Neill and Carlson turning it around at some point; it's a tough lineup. The pitching, however, will be outcome determinative for the Cardinals. Mikolas and Wainwright have questions with injuries and age, but both have been really good so far now they're adding in Liberatore who should at least bump Jordan Hicks from the rotation where he has not been effective. Pretty average outside the first two, but much like last year when they acquired Lester and JA Happ, the Cardinals will probably pick up some rental starting pitching at the deadline. Side note: I couldn't recall where Matt Carpenter went, and was surprised to see that despite being 36 years old and having made 90 million dollars playing professional baseball he was playing in AAA for the Rangers until being released yesterday.

J Just without the eye, defense and the criminal stalking.

O'Day is pretty good

Hiura!

Same old Hiura: Strike 1, Strike 2, Strike 3

I hope you're right, but it seems like a lot of excuses. All I know is he ripped the cover of the ball in the summer of 2019 which, as we progress through summer of 2022, was three years ago. Since that point in time he hasn't been a major league caliber player offensively or defensively, and this coming despite extreme patience by the Brewers in giving him hundreds of major league at bats to try to figure it out in the midst of playoff chases. We'll see what this summer holds, he either shows them something now/soon, or he's probably looking for a roster spot with a different club for 2023.

We can agree to disagree. The minor leagues are littered with players who hit at every level and can't hit in the majors. That's primarily because the best 150 or so pitchers in the United States don't play in the minor leagues. We don't disagree however, that Hiura was awesome in 2019. But then again it was 3 years ago, and he's been going backwards ever since. You could be right, and the Brewers will take another shot on him again next year; but I think we can agree as it stands now: soon to be out of options, with a multi-million dollar guaranteed contract and yet not amongst their top 26 players, his position in the organization is tenuous. Finally, just because a team may be rebuilding and without incredible pressure to win, doesn't mean they're also ignorant. I'm sure every rebuilding club in the majors would take Hiura if they could acquire him for free because then they would have nothing to lose. However, asking them to give something valuable in return for a flawed player is another story.

Respectfully, other than the pedigree of being a former Top 10 pick (and even that is waning given the mediocrity of the 2017 MLB draft class), Hiura has no value. You either hit major league pitching or you don't. But for 2.5 months back in 2019, Hiura hasn't hit major league pitching. Now, nearly 26 years old he's not really a "kid" any more, nor is he "green" with 219 major league games as well as post season at bats under his belt. At this point, he's not going to fix his strike out problem in AAA, because there isn't a Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola in AAA. Looking at his AAA stats, he's already monster against that inferior pitching; he's fooled less often and rips the cover off the ball. As for DH'ing instead of McCutchen, Hiura was striking out over 50% of the time. There's no reason to give MLB at bats to a hitter who strikes out half the time, small sample or not. Even if, for the sake of argument, he could somehow cut his strike out percentage down to 35%, his MLB slugging percentage since that magical summer of '19 is a whopping .363. There is no reason to give regular MLB DH at bats to a player with a .363 slugging percentage. As much as I wished he would be the next homegrown middle of the order hitter, I think he's most likely a AAAA player/bust of a pick from a below average draft year. I'm sure they could trade him off for another team's enigma, but nobody is going to give anything of value for Hiura especially, since he's currently on a trajectory to be non-tendered in the offseason.