Jopal78
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Everything posted by Jopal78
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The team got lucky with their pitching staff last year. Chacín has a career year, Miley revitalized his careee, Gio was a shot in the arm. Even Anderson was okay despite giving up a ton of homers. This year they just don’t have the horses in the rotation, which subsequently exposes the middle inning relievers having to pitch earlier and more often -
It’s not even the pitcher not going 5 innings; it’s the fact Davies buries the team early in the process. Now the bullpen has to cover 5 innings in a likely loss
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In 21 games in June, the Brewers have given up 5 or more runs in 12 games; and lost 9 of those 12.
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They’ll be sellers come 7/31. Giving up more runs than they score and seemingly 5 plus a night they’re not going to beat many teams. On the bright side they have oodles to swap off for prospects: Grandal, Moustakas, Albers, Anderson, Jeffress, Gonzalez
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As a Brewers fan, I like the July 31st hard deadline. Moving the deadline back would allow teams that have under performed their talent additional time to creep back in the race. For example based on Pythagorean: Arizona 44-36 (actual record 40-40) Cincy 43-33 (actual 36- 40) I'd rather the D'Backs trade off Holland, etc and the Reds, Roark, Gennett and Puig then actually have them compete against Milwaukee for deadline talent.
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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Jopal78 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Except the trade deadline is 7/31. The Reds and Pirates will unload their players on expiring contracts. Teams like the D-Backs who have played way under their Pythagorean will have some hard decisions to make if they don’t turn it around in the next four months -
What is with the lack of homegrown talent
Jopal78 replied to brewers888's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The Brewers organizational development system is no different than the majority of the other clubs. A team is most likely to find a Brain, Fielder, Weeks, etc when drafting in the first ten spots or so. Just like the Cubs drafting Bryant, Schwarber and Baez when picking near the top of the draft. The Brewers simply traded a lot of talent away late in the Melvin years. Stearns, like nearly all GMs, valued different types of players and remade the minor leagues jesttiaoning players who didn’t fit his sough after profile. In addition to Yamamoto and Fiers; Cy Sneed (Villar trade) is going to make the major leagues sooner than later. Anthony Banda should be back some time this year as well -
Jimmy Nelson has zero value; if they DFA him nobody is going to claim him and put Nelson on their 25 man roster. He’d be going to the minors regardless and based on what he’s shown so far he is going to be hunting for a contract this off season anyhow. I’m sure if the Brewers want to option him he would consent to go down and work on his craft to try to get back to being a useful pitcher as opposed to the mop up man and pitching without a set schedule
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Young Ace? Now you’re the one who’s talking crazy. He had a great 2017 but Nelson has a career ERA over 4, a career whip over 1.30, a career FIP over 4 and had just enough service time to start getting expensive when he was injured. Not bad, but outside of 2017 he was text book mediocre. He also tore both his rotator cuff and labrum.
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Of course I’m serious. Nelson didn’t simply tear his labrum; he tore everything in his shoulder around the joint, front and back. You don’t have to take my word for it, it was reported in substantial detail that he was in uncharted area with his injury. Pitchers get dropped all the time after suffering a major injury. Drew Smyly and Mike Minor come to mind as a couple examples. All I’m saying is for a ‘small market club’ to sink significant bucks into an injured pitcher with no idea on how he’ll perform post injury was a dumb risk. Maybe Nelson makes me eat crow, then again maybe I’m right
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Nelson had a shoulder injury nobody had ever came back from. Instead of. Non-tendering Nelson and trying to resign him for less they’ve paid him nearly 8 million dollars while he missed nearly a season and a half, now apparently diminished skills they have to try to eek out something for their 8 million bucks. A clear error in judgment by the GM
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Nelson reminds me of a post 1994 Cal Eldred, a team player and a guy you want to root for yet a hurler without big league command who goes out and buries the team every 5th day
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I’ll just come out and say it. Nelson sucks post injury; and they should have non-tendered him after 2017
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Talent makes coaches look good. Luis Castillo has always been good for the Reds, his numbers so far this year (15 starts) are nearly identical to those of his rookie year in 2017 (15 starts). Sonny Gray's hits allowed, walks allowed and strikeouts in 2019 are virtually identical to his career marks with Oakland and his first season with the Yankees. DeScalfani is pitching to his career marks, and Roark has been a little worse than his career averages so far this season. Tyler Mahle was a very successful pitcher in the minor leagues as well, and like our own Woodruff has improved as he gains experience in the major leagues. I don't think Derek Johnson can take credit for talented players pitching to their career averages. If the Reds' improved pitching is attributable to any thing it is that they swapped out Homer Bailey (5.55 FIP) and Sal Romano (4.95 FIP) and replaced them with Gray (3.23 FIP) and Roark (3.30 FIP), so the credit would go to their GM recognizing opportunity to add quality arms to their rotation without giving up much in return. In terms of a successful season, I recently read that the Padres have had 14 winning seasons out of 50. The Brewers have had 18 winning seasons out of 50. Really two teams that are associated with futility more than anything else. So I'd consider a winning season to be successful. That being said, it is so hard to win year in year out, when you have a team that's playoff caliber with playoff expectations like the '12 Brewers, '14 Brewers and the '19 Brewers, to miss the playoffs regardless of what the ultimate win total has to be an unsuccessful season.
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every contending team in the NL will be in on Smith. Not sure it’s worth the cost if the team continues to get bludgeoned by contending teams
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It’s hard to win in baseball; last year the Brewers won a lot of one run games and got lucky with their pitchers; this year not so much so far
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I agree most nights they’re not very fun to watch. When they hit a bunch of home runs they usually win.outside Yelich they don’t really hit for average, they don’t hit a lot of extra base hits but for homers. On the pitching side after Woodruff their starters are always working from behind, and the middle relief consistently leaks runs
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Davies probably is pitching hurt; to be so dialed in and then to labor and get clobbered by average teams at best doesn’t smell right
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It’s series like these last 2 which remind me of last year when they lost five straight games to the Pirates last July. The unfortunate aspect is the Cubs have been scuffling where just a couple more wins could have the Brewers Controlling their destiny in the Central
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It seems more than likely the Brewers are going to have to pick up a starting pitcher between now and 7/31 to simply eat innings. Woodruff pitched a total of 125 innings in 2018, 120 in 2017, 158 in 2016. He's already at 81 this year with another 18 starts to reach 32 plus any playoff games. Davies has topped 163 innings only once as a pro (in 2017 at 191) then injured his shoulder last year. He's in a similar spot as Woodruff with 79+ innings with another 18 starts to reach 32 Peralta's career high in innings is approximately 140, and should be in pretty good shape now that he's coming out of the pen. I don't know if its reasonable to expect a big turn around from Jimmy Nelson unless he regains his command, or how long it will take for Gonzalez to get back to where he was before having arm fatigue.
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I'm not so sure the Reds wouldn't simply hang on to Gennett. He's hit 50 homeruns in nearly 300 games with the Reds to go with with an OBP of .350 and SLG% of .508; they could extend him the qualifying offer. Then they'd get an early comp pick as opposed to some middling prospects that typically accompany a rental player coming off a major injury. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Gennett accepted a QO from the Reds to rebuild value.
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More telling about those numbers is pitch selection. He threw more four seam fastballs than was usually the case before hurting his shoulder.
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Other than getting knocked around the short starts are a product of the Brewers having pitchers like Anderson, Chacín, Wilkerson, likely Nelson without stuff to blow hitters away and spotty command. It’s playing the percentages that the more a hitter seems them in a game the more the less likely they’re going to get away with it when they have to throw hittable pitches in the zone. Burnes and Peralta throw hard enough but struggle with their command. Ultimately, when you are a poor organization in terms of developing starting pitching and you don’t have the funds to sink 20+ million dollars a year into quality pitching; you go with the flawed talent and play the percentages (it’s just not working as well as it did last year).
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To tamp down the over emphasis on the importance of Hiura. His 9 RBIs all came on home runs, I saw him play the last game of the series in Philadelphia. He came up with runners in scoring position nearly every time and struck out four times along with a fly out. The point being, he hasn't been a RBI machine despite having baserunners on ahead of him. He struck out in 1/3 of his at bats. As Keon Broxton, Domingo Santana, Jonathan Villar, Brett Phillips, Chris Carter, etc. have proven its a quick ticket out of Milwaukee with this GM. Also, Hiura's fielding wasn't great. Ultimately the bat will play, but again this is a front office that values defense and versatility. Hiura only plays one spot, and didn't field that position very well. The conclusion here is: Hiura was an exciting player no doubt, but he didn't come up and exactly play with no flaws to his game.
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In 336 games with the Brewers Shaw has hit 67 home runs, and has played solid defense. Matt Williams was another player who averaged 32+ homers a year, with solid defense and low on base percentage and he played for 17 years in the big leagues. Given Shaw's track record of the type of player he can be; they're going to give him every opportunity to get straightened out. Knee jerk reactions like dropping a successful player who is in a prolonged slump is the type of move that helps GMs get fired.
