Jopal78
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Everything posted by Jopal78
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Professional sports teams employ individuals who give instructions to the players on ways people will try to exploit them or take advantage of them once they are young, rich and famous. I'm assuming that would include social media history. That he ignored any such advice, was not private on social media or didn't bother to delete them years later says more about his intelligence than anything else.
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Gurriel got a 5 game suspension for his gesture towards Yu Darvish in the WS last year. I don't think Hader would be punished more than that for something he did before he was even in organized baseball.
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They had more than one good month. 38-29 since April. Dodgers (for example) 40-27 since April. However, the Brewers got by with stellar performances by their bullpen arms and starters and what we're seeing now is likely some regression to the mean for Jeffress and Hader. The injuries are catching up with the team forcing them to use guys like Miley, Jorge Lopez Wilkerson, Zagurski. The front office misjudging their organizational depth at catcher and middle infield has lead to Kratz, Bandy, Sogard, Brad Miller, and Nate Orf getting more playing time than their talent level warrants on a contending club. To bring this back to Machado. The team has played better than expected but with 8 players on the DL and the 25 man roster running on fumes; its probably best to hang on to the future and fight for the wild card because the team's talent level evidently can't hang with the other big dogs in the NL over 162 games.
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I'd pack it in on Machado at this point; brutal stretch to end the first half, hard schedule to open the second half. Cubs keep plugging away. They should make a couple smaller moves like last year and try to hang on to the wild card. With injuries, poor roster management, questionable in-game decisions, the worst thing to do would be trade key pieces of tomorrow's team for Machado then miss the playoffs or be the road team in the WC game.
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With Junior Guerra there probably isn't an innings limit given his age, but there will definitely be some pitching decisions to be made as some young arms start getting extended beyond the number of innings thrown last year. This could also suggest the need to add arms from outside the organization. Freddy Peralta 2017 IP: 120 2018 IP: 93 Taylor Williams 2017 IP: 52 2018 IP: 36 Josh Hader 2017 IP: 100 2018 IP: 47 Additionally, some pitchers may might wear down as they pitch beyond their career highs in innings: Jeremy Jeffress career high 68, currently 44 Dan Jennings career high 62, currently 45
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In some semblance of need, and assuming certain teams are out of the race in July: Tyson Ross Cole Hamels Jed Lowrie Jonathon Lucroy Bullpen arms The Brewers aren't going to be able to stay in the race with the current make up of their rotation. The peripherals suggest Anderson, Davies and Suter are the three weakest pitchers on the roster. Cole Hamels is a free agent to be, still throws in the mid-90s, is left handed, and has 100 post season innings pitched in his career. He'd be the best target for Milwaukee, but the Brewers are on his no-trade list so it could get complicated. Tyson Ross is a free agent to be too and is healthy and back to form. His "cost" would be less than Hamels; however, he has thrown only 120+ innings since opening day 2016 and may not have the stamina to pitch into October. Lowrie another free agent to be, would add a much needed bat to the Brewers lineup. He has some versatility having played 2B, 3B, and SS in the last two seasons. The last few years, Beane has made some incredibly poor trades so maybe a trade to Milwaukee without giving up top tier talent is possible. I don't think Lucroy is much of a catcher anymore, but Pina's play and the trade for Kratz prove the Brewers have nothing at the position so they could use somebody. Unless another contender has a injury to their catcher, the Brewers could likely acquire Lucroy for minimal talent if they take on the salary. Bullpen--Swarzak was a killer out of the pen last year and I'm sure every team is always on the look out to add veteran bullpen arms.
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I don't know if it counts as a "move" or not, but the tendency to continue to hang with players who cannot play. They have given almost 200 at bats already this season to the likes of Jett Bandy, Ji-Man Choi, Eric Sogard non of whom has an OPS approaching .700.
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At the trading deadline in 2014, Doug Melvin sent Anthony Banda and Mitch Haniger to Arizona for Gerardo Parra. Parra played the best baseball of his career with the Brewers .312/.355/.482 across 146 games, but the team didn't win enough with him and he was traded to Baltimore at the deadline in 2015 for Zach Davies. Davies has been a good player (career WAR of 5.3) who now has a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Haniger broke in with the D'Backs and was flipped to Seattle in the Jean Segura trade. He's now hitting in the middle of the Mariners order and already has a 2.2 WAR this season and 5.3 for his career. He's batting .270/.359/.512. Banda was traded over to Tampa Bay and was briefly in their starting rotation until tearing a ligament in his pitching elbow. With all the picks Doug Melvin missed on after 2010, two of the few players he actually hit on were traded away in a deal that at this point can best be called a "push".
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With what Saladino has done even in a small sample, I don't think Sogard is ever getting his roster spot back. -
I guess I'm not really a "hater". Gennett was just a guy on a mediocre club. A new GM was brought in to rebuild the club and jettisoned a mediocre player who upped his power game in the mythical "age 27 and 28" seasons. Nothing more nothing less.
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I'll bite. He's still a poor defender at second and was equally bad in left field, right field and third base. With a GM who prefers strong versatile defenders (Perez, Sogard, Saldino) he's not really a fit with Milwaukee anymore. Secondly, he still can't hit left handed pitching at all. His three biggest years at the plate: 2013, 2017 and 2018 also coincide with having a BABiP in those seasons of nearly .340 or better. More importantly, the percentage of balls he puts in play is less and the percentages of at bats that end in a strike out is up more than anything he did with the Brewers. Again with a GM who is actively trying to get away from the all-or-nothing free swingers, Gennett is the opposite of the type of player the Brewers having been building their roster with. What he brings to the table is increased power. However, power for the sake of power isn't worth much in today's game. Mark Reynolds, Chris Carter, Mike Napoli, are all playing on minor league deals despite each averaging 30 home runs or more per 162 games over the course of their careers.
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They release Franklin last year because he couldn't play, and now he's back despite the same middle infielders he couldn't beat out last year still on the roster. Makes no sense other than a desperation heave.
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Jon Lester doesn't pay attention to base runners, and cannot throw to the bases without intentionally bouncing it, yet there were only 19 steals against him last year in 34 starts and three steals in 6 starts so far this year. It Vogt hits anywhere close to his career averages he will see plenty of time behind the plate regardless if he's throwing out 18% of runners.
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When exactly have the Brewers ever been a well-coached club? It seems over the last 25+ seasons, generations of Brewer players have consistently been throwing to the wrong base, missing the cut off man, swinging through the pitch on a hit and run, failing to execute a sacrifice fly, failing to get the bunt down no matter who the particular coach was at the time. More probably true than not, most players believe they got to where they are at on the basis of their own ability, and therefore it is likely that their willingness to listen to coaching is somewhat limited. Obviously Derek Johnson has some ideas that certain members of the staff have bought into like throwing more fastballs up, and throwing the cutter, etc. The pitching staff's success however, is most likely related to an underestimation of the talent and potential of its members.
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Wade Miley Moves to Rotation, Suter to Pen
Jopal78 replied to MVP2110's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Frankly, hasn't Chacin been the bigger problem than Suter? 3.1 IP 4 ER 5.2 3 4.2 3 4.0 1 6.0 0 5.2 2 4.1 4 Chacin has logged one quality start and has only pitched three more innings than Suter despite making one additional start. Suter, on the other hand, bests Chacin in FIP (3.82 : 5:24) BB/9 (2.1 : 4.5) and K/9 (3.14 : 1.18). This whole Wade Miley move appears to be the front office being scared to let him go, based on his 20+ innings in spring training. If they truly want the gritty veteran lefty who will eat innings they could at least swap him in for Chacin who hasn't delivered much of anything outside his start against Miami. -
None of the middle infielders are hitting. The team could try to have Villar bat left-handed exclusively. He has an OPS under .600 as a right handed batter since the start of 2017. As for Sogard, there aren't any middle infielders in the farm system that are likely to provide a significant boost in hitting. Orf hasn't exactly lit up the minor leagues outside of Colorado Springs. Dubon has less than 80 games experience above AA and already has a glove-first reputation. They'll likely have to sink or swim with a combo of Perez, Sogard and Villar. Outside of Jed Lowrie there might not be much available at 2B in July. Dozier and Josh Harrison are free agents to be, but their clubs could be in the race come July.
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Wouldn't the team be better if they just swapped out Suter for Woodruff, and Sogard for someone who brings anything at all to the table on offense. (Neil Walker has already fallen out of favor in NY and isn't playing every day).
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You know they're going to replace Suter with Miley. Counsell wants a lefty in the rotation.
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It's complicated with Braun. Regardless of the cheating, in 48 years of the franchise Ryan Braun is one of their three greatest players of all-time. Even since the cheating and its aftermath, Braun has hit 142 home runs in his last 732 games (or approximately one every 5.1 games), he's stolen 97 bases (or approximately one every 7.5 games). When he eventually is done as a Milwaukee Brewer he most likely will be the leader in virtually every offensive category (and if he played for another 8 seasons I'm sure he would end up their hits leader too). The only thing holding him back over the years is injuries, which is more likely than not why he was cheating in the first place, to be able to play through nagging injuries. There are plenty of "villains" in baseball, Braun gets booed mercilessly because he is also one of the best players of his generation. The team understandably doesn't use him much in their marketing despite the fact he is a bonafide MLB superstar. People are ambivalent about Braun, and I get that, but I also get that there probably won't be another player any time soon with Braun's ability that suits up for the Brewers for the majority of their career.
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Win-Loss Record: 72-90 Playoffs (Yes, No): No Highest Playoff Level Achieved: None All Star Game Representative(s):Corey Knebel Offensive Player of the Year: Christian Yelich Pitcher of the Year: Corey Knebel Most Surprising Player: Domingo Santana Most Disappointing Player: Lorenzo Cain While true that Garza/Peralta/Espino etc. are no longer here to get knocked around for 250 innings. I don't believe Suter and Woodruff will regularly pitch deep enough in games, and the bullpen will get worked heavily to pick up the slack. Additionally, there is no replacement for the quality of innings that Nelson gave them, so there is bound to be significant slippage in the pitching staff from last year. That Cain played in 155 games last year is the outlier. He's hit the DL at some point almost every year, missing over a month in '12, '13 and '16. Odds suggest Cain and Braun will miss significant time with injuries. Will wait and see with Pina, Shaw and Thames. All 3 had a huge first half in 2017 and put up a 2nd half OPS nearly 100 points lower. If the first half of '17 was real they're good players, if the 2nd half was real, they're mediocre players. Santana is only 25, if he could put the ball in play more instead of striking out, the sky is the limit with his existing on base percentage and power.
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1b/OF log jam as an offensive strategy
Jopal78 replied to TJseven7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
While he may have some intrinsic value in the clubhouse, Aguilar as a player might be overvalued by the posters on this forum. Mark Reynolds and Mike Napoli remain unsigned. The difference between those two players and Jesus Aguilar is not that significant that another team will likely be willing to give up a player to acquire Aguilar. Jesus isn't exactly young, and doesn't bring an expansive skill set. While it is possible a rebuilding team claims him on waivers to fill in for a year or two, it is also possible that he goes unclaimed and he goes down to AAA. -
1b/OF log jam as an offensive strategy
Jopal78 replied to TJseven7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
There really isn't a log jam. In 2018 the Brewers have 8 games in AL parks using the DH. On top of that even when healthy it is rare that Braun plays more than 10 games in a row. If that holds true in 2018 that's another 16 games or more (That is 15% of the games right there). Now figure in the fact that Thames was frequently rested against LH pitching in 2017. If they rest Cain periodically then the number of available at bats continues to grow. Aguilar might have to make his money as the primary pinch hitter in 2018, but I think they'll easily be able to get 450 at bats or more for: Braun, Yelich, Cain, Santana and Thames. -
I suppose fundamentally the question is: is the current collection of talent good enough to compete in the NL. I think the answer to that question is maybe. In today's baseball, if you have a .500 record, more likely than not you are in the race for a playoff spot. Does the Brewers collection of talent scream .500 baseball, yes it does. Are there any elite talents currently in the Brewers farm system that will help push the major league team into one of the three or four most talented teams in the NL... that I'm not so sure off. Time will tell. But with playing .500 baseball, you wind up picking 20th in the draft and while there are no sure things in the draft, more everyday players are found in the upper half of the first round than the lower half. So with .500 baseball the farm system is not likely going to get stocked with elite prospects picking near the bottom of each round. (Now to bring this back to Cobb) If the team is going to be around .500, and as a consequence likely will not have a draft position where they have the ability to add elite talent to the system in either 2018 or 2019, why not field the absolute best team you can especially when you can add major league talent to the rotation without giving up players already in the pipe line.
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From the Bay Area, it looks like Oakland might be in on Cobb now that Cotton had an MRI on his elbow: https://tinyurl.com/2fcpre6
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Broxton getting more interest than Santana?
Jopal78 replied to TURBO's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Broxton's power/speed combo is undoubtedly an attractive trait to other teams. But if the free agent market this off season has shown anything, one trait/tool players are not in real high demand. Broxton's value will be tied to his ability to play defense in CF. Solid defense with his power and speed will overcome weak OBP skills. If he remains mediocre in the field his value is more of a 4th outfielder bottom of the 25 man roster type player.
