Jopal78
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Everything posted by Jopal78
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2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion
Jopal78 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Cubs just added Jorge de la Rosa to their bullpen. Their bullpen was already deep and solid, and they've added some veterans like Jesse Chavez, Kintzler, and de la Rosa to soak up innings and keep the killers like Edwards and Chisek sharp for down the stretch. I kind of wished Milwaukee would have made similar moves to keep Jeffress, Hader et al. fresh down the stretch. -
For what it's worth Nate Silver has Milwaukee's chance at making the playoffs down to 60%, and predicting the Braves, Brewers and Diamondbacks to all finish at 88-74. Cubs with 93 wins, Dodgers with 91 wins, Phillies with 89 wins. The three blow out losses in the last week, have sure turned off the analytics crew to Milwaukee's chances.
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3 Ugly losses in 7 days isn’t a blip, it’s a sign that they have problems
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Not too late to sell or dump payroll to reorganize for next year. This team peaked in May and just like in 2007, 2014 and 2017 you’re watching the collapse as the big boys in the league step up
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Will be 2.5 games back in the division later tonight. Dodgers gaining ground in the wild card. Short outings from the SP, a bullpen crashing back to earth, inconsistent offense and a failure to consistently beat up on poor teams will equal Yet another fade from contention and no playoffs.
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Now thoughts on the waiver trade deadline
Jopal78 replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
That's not true. 13 of 24 starts were 'quality starts', and has gone over 105 pitches only four times out of 24. Admittedly, he's had 5 starts where he has allowed more than 4 earned runs, which is more than any of the Brewers current starters. However, the point is, he's not a front of the rotation pitcher but a back end guy to eat up innings, that won't cost anything of significance. As bad as Sonny Gray has been, they won't get him for nothing. Ditto for Matt Harvey -
Now thoughts on the waiver trade deadline
Jopal78 replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
For what is worth: Jon Lester FIP 4.66, Jose Quintana FIP 4.69, Robbie Ray 4.72, Julio Tehran 5.33. Pitchers can still succeed with a FIP at that level. Shields primarily is protection for the bullpen when the other starters leave after 4 2/3. -
He was DFA'd by the Nationals, so I assume he is in waivers waivers waiting to clear. If he made it to the Brewers, I'd claim him. Sub-1.00 WHIP since June 1st, tops out in the mid-90s, 6:1 K:BB ratio. He gave up three homeruns early in the year before hitting the DL and has given up 4 in 26+ innings since coming back so there's the drawback. On an expiring contract.
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Now thoughts on the waiver trade deadline
Jopal78 replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think the most likely starter to wind up with the Brewers in August is James Shields. Has 21 million dollar salary in 2018, 11 million of which was paid by San Diego. So there is probably 4 million left on his contract and a 2 million dollar buy out of his 2019 club option. Solid WHIP of 1.292, 2:1 walk to strike out ratio, 7 K/9. His FIP is similar to Matt Harvey's at 4.68. Most importantly Shields is averaging 6 innings per start. He's certainly not a front of the rotation arm, but an excellent depth piece keeping the team in the game and eat innings, and keeping the young arms and bullpen rested, and those are very valuable commodities down the stretch. Not to mention, the White Sox and Brewers have completed a number of deals together in the recent past. -
If a player is put on revocable waivers, and a team claims that player, there are three options: 1. The team who placed the player on revocable waivers, lets the player go and the claiming team assumes the contract without having to give compensation. (See Alex Rios in 2009) 2. The team who placed the player on revocable waivers, works out a trade with the team claiming him. 3. The team who placed the player on revocable waivers, pulls the player back when they are claimed. In Braun's case, I think the Brewers would love to move on from his contract (as evidenced by the fact they tried to trade him in 2016), however with 40 million or so left on his contract I don't think any team would claim him. If a team did claim him, I'm 100% sure the Brewers would let him go without compensation to be off the hook for the remainder on his contract. As for a trade, Braun will only go to a certain few teams and there is no way the Brewers could trade him to any of those teams without absorbing an equal dollar amount in bad contracts from the claiming team.
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You are probably correct about AAV, but Swarzak got 2/14 at age 32, Cishek got 2yrs/13.5 at 32, Tommy Hunter got 2yrs/18 at 32, so he can probably get a better gaurantee
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Haudricourt (FWIW) says it’s a mutual option. So does BP: http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/chicago-white-sox/ As did MLB when contract was signed: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/159367354-royals-sign-pitcher-joakim-soria-for-3-years.amp.html
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Soria has a mutual option, NOT a club option; therefore he’s a rental. He will easily get more than 10 million guaranteed if he is a free agent after 2018, so he’ll decline the option
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If the Brewers had a better track record of developing starting pitchers over the last 25 years, I might have been concerned about trading off a first round pick. However the names, Neugebauer, Gold, Mike Jones, Mark Rogers, Eric Arnett, Jed Bradley, Taylor Jungmann mean it’s more likely than not Medeiros would never have contributed in a meaningful way at the deadline. Soria has been a boss this year, and has not been worked real hard. With his option for next year for 10 million is gold. They couldn’t sign that caliber of reliever for ten million in the offseason, and they’re getting cash! Finally, if the team is in the toilet next year at this time; they can always swap him off to a contender, so the final legacy of the trade isn’t even known right now
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Here's another idea: Joakim Soria and James Shields from the White Sox for Jorge Lopez, Keon Broxton and Kodi Medeiros. Soria has been terrific for the White Sox. Only 2 homers allowed in 38+ innings, WHIP of 1.16, 11.4 K/9 and 4.9 K:BB. He's making 9 million this year, 10 million dollar club option for 2019 with a 1 million dollar buy out. Shields, most importantly, is averaging over 6 innings a start and would ease the burden on the bullpen by eating innings. He has a WHIP of 1.26. His FIP of 4.38 is not great, but an improvement over Davies, Suter, Anderson. Making 21 million, with 11 paid by SD. Has 16 million dollar club option for next year with 2 million dollar buy out. Broxton would step right in to either LF or CF for the White Sox, Lopez would slot into the bullpen, and Medeiros would be for down the road. The prospects are lesser due to the cash involved that Milwaukee would be taking on. Also, the White Sox might do better shipping Shields and Soria off seperately.
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You may be right, but with 20 players either pre-arbitration or with multiple years of team control beyond 2018, it would be so cost prohibitive, it doesn't make sense for the other teams to try to pry those players away.
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The Pirates are just an "up and down" team. They were in First Place on May 17th, then were 8 games under .500 on July 8th. Their run differential is +4, they'll probably hover around .500 all year. For the most part, they sold their pieces off before the season started. The only free agents left on their roster are Jody Mercer and Sean Rodriguez.
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There is the whole point. What contenders are looking for a rental 2B? Not the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Athletics, or Mariners. Maybe Arizona, or to a lesser extent Boston and Cleveland. The demand just isn't there, and all these names being thrown around are all on expiring contracts. At the end of the day, the Twins or Mets will take what they can get, because they're not going to let their "rentals" walk for nothing.
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Broxton would immediately step in as a starter for Baltimore, his numbers are better than Brinson's in Miami, he'd likely start in San Diego, Kansas City, Texas, Chicago A.L., Detroit and possibly in MN given Buxton's problems and in Cincy if not a division rival. You're correct, he's likely never going to be a star player, but its not as though the Brewers are going to release him as worthless either. He's a cost-controlled plus defender with speed and power and has already proven he can play in the majors, he wouldn't be just throw in garbage.
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I like David Stearns as a GM; he's obviously learned from the failure of Doug Melvin (a team in a market like Milwaukee needs to develop its own starting pitching to have any chance at success). Therefore, I'm okay, with his reluctance to trade Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, etc. they are the biggest influencing factors on the future of the organization. That being said, it is so difficult to win consistently in baseball, that I believe if the team is in it at the end of July you have to take on talent to make your best run. Last year, I feel Stearns was surprised that his team was in the hunt and made a couple of moves to bolster his roster that didn't really cost him anything. Its gut check time, he either makes moves to take a run at it this year, or he will make some smaller moves and take solace in the fact that they competed from start to finish. If he chooses the latter I think his passive-ness could be criticized.
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I think was as fans of the Brewers the perception of their players is quite askew in some instances. For example, Keon Broxton has his warts but he has a .735 OPS across almost 700 career at bats and is a plus defender. He may never be a star but more probably true than not will be in the major leagues as an outfielder for multiple years, and that definitely has value. Same deal with Brett Phillips, he is going to be an MLB player at some point, he may not be an all-star caliber player but with his combination of power and defensive chops, he's likely to a regular player for multiple seasons in the near future. Similar with Ortiz, he might be scuffling this year, and prospects knock his conditioning but he's been nothing but a blue chip prospect since he joined up with Texas. If we're talking Brian Dozier or Asdrubal Cabrera, I'd guess that the offer would consist of players like Trey Stokes, Kodi Medeiros, or Zack Brown or in that tier of prospects. Controllable starters like Archer or Straily you might see someone like Ortiz or Broxton or maybe even Phillips etc. I don't think they are trading any arms that are close to the major leagues unless they are getting a de Grom type player back. We saw with the Doug Melvin years, without cost controlled pitching on your roster the best Milwaukee is going to do is around 82 wins.
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It is far easier to find hitters than starting pitchers, look no further than the Brewers current roster: Aguilar--wavier claim, Shaw--trade for relief pitcher, Thames--foreign league free agent. I wouldn't hesitate to trade any of the hitters in the Brewers system if the right deal came along (middle of the order hitter or Front line Starter), but the Brewers live and die on their ability to draft and develop starting pitching. Therefore I cannot blame them for a refusal to trade Burnes, Peralta or Woodruff. It's smart, and shows the organization has learned from the failings of Doug Melvin who failed to consistently draft and develop starting pitching and traded most of what little he had away.
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I chose Dietrich because he's left handed and has primarily been a 2B. That he also plays 3B, LF, 1B is just the kind of versatility Stearns and Counsell look for. Asdrubal Cabrera is a switch hitter and has played primarily 2B this year but also has the versatility to play SS. Basically its replacing 2B and SS which have been primarily manned by the weakest bats on 25 man roster: Villar, Arcia, Miller and Perez. Such moves would also allow more pinch hitting/double switches due to the versatility of Dietrich, Cabrera, Saladino and Perez. There's not a difference making bat on the market that the Brewers can get so an alternative strategy may be to have a 25 man roster where all the hitters are capable and versatile. Instead of sending Kratz or Arcia to pinch hit late in games.
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Hand is a clearly better pitcher though. Barraclough's FIP (3.62) puts him more in the realm Dan Jennings (3.76) than Brad Hand (3.17). Miami would be getting 4+ years of control with Santana, even if he doesn't fully rebound to .875 OPS, that's still a cost controlled power bat plus additional prospects but none of Milwaukee's finest.
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I think people are over-estimating the value of Dozier. First of all he isn't cheap, and the Twins are not going to be paying any of what remains on his 9 million dollar salary. Second, there is a glut of players available who play 2nd: (Dozier, Kinsler, Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera, Johnathan Schoop, etc.) without a clear top player. The Twins don't have much leverage because there is so little difference between Kinsler, Dozier, Cabrera etc. Third, if they wait until the 31st the Brewers very well could be looking up at the wild card spots, and like last year will adjust their sights for some rental players that won't have much of an acquisition cost in terms of talent. Zach Wheeler would be one of my targets because he averages almost 6 innings per start and could lessen the load on the bullpen. The problem is the Mets and Brewers aren't a good match because Cespedes and Jay Bruce are signed long term and they have Nimmo and Conforto to play OF. So maybe Villar, Ortiz, and Gatewood for Wheeler and Cabrera. Kyle Barraclough and Derek Dietrich for Domingo Santana, Erceg, Houser and Diplan. Rotation: Anderson, Wheeler, Chacin, Guerra, Suter/Peralta/Woodruff Pen: Albers, Barraclough, Barnes, Hader, Jeffress, Jennings, Williams, Suter/Woodruff/Peralta C: Pina, Nottingham IF: Aguilar, Thames, Dietrich, Cabrera, Perez, Saladino, Shaw OF: Braun, Yelich, Cain
