Jopal78
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Everything posted by Jopal78
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I am surprised that Gallardo had a 2.57 in '15 which I would assume is attributable to keeping the ball in the ball park more, as all his other numbers have deteriorated every year since leaving Milwaukee. The average innings pitched is also interesting because Jimmy Nelson averaged over 6 IP per start in 2017. Miley averaged around 5 IP/start in '16 and was less than 5 IP in '17. Gallardo has been right around 5 IP/start since leaving Milwaukee the first time and Chacin is at nearly 6 IP/start last year. I'll give the front office the benefit of the doubt for now, but it certainly appears more probably true than not that the rotation takes a significant step backwards which will tax the bullpen which could result in a decline in productivity by having to cover more innings in 2018.
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What I don't understand is players such as Cain and Yelich are acquired because they have significant track records of being good players and it is expected that will continue into the future. However, with the pitching rotation Miley, Gallardo and to a lesser extent Chacin have lengthy track records of ineffectiveness and injury, yet the team apparently expects that WILL NOT continue into the future and the players will pitch much better than their track record suggests they will. I doesn't make sense logically. I don't think Cobb is a world beater by any measure, but it's at least makes sense to bring in pitchers who have been successful recently if you're counting on them to be successful into the future.
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There are two factors in play here. Pro athletes have, relatively speaking, a small window of high earning capacity. Most have little education beyond high school so these contracts are about the money that is going to secure themselves and their families for the rest of their lives. They're not 'surrendering their futures' to their agents, they are trying to secure the highest price they can for their services, and they're willing to play chicken hoping the team breaks and gives them the extra millions of dollars they want. Secondly, free agent contracts are a lot like buying and selling houses. A buyer knows they'd like a 4BR 3BA house in a certain location, and is comfortable spending X amount of dollars to get it. The owner of such a house wants to sell it, but looks around at what other people in his part of town are getting for their houses and it is more than X, so they hold out for more despite the fact that those other houses might have a newer roof or HVAC. Eventually, someone will break and pay more to get the house or the owner will drop the price but both positions can be justified.
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Anyone else losing their patience?
Jopal78 replied to Madhawk23's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Look at the Brewer teams from 2007-2012. 2007: 5th in Runs Scored, 9th in Runs Allowed 83-79 record 2008: 7th in Runs Scored, 2nd in Runs Allowed 90-72 record 2009: 3rd in Runs Scored, 15th in Runs Allowed 80-82 record 2010: 4th in Runs Scored, 14th in Runs Allowed 77-85 record 2011: 5th in Runs Scored, 6th in Runs Allowed 96-66 record 2012: 1st in Runs Scored, 13th in Runs Allowed 83-79 record Having a good offense in MLB, means the team at worst will likely be mediocre (see 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2012), it is pitching that counts. The Prince Fielder/Ryan Braun era teams were not consistent playoff contenders because the front office failed to develop and/or acquire quality starting pitching. I'm sure the current front office occupants are aware of both of the preceding and will add a pitcher at some point after the gamesmanship between other teams on the trade front, or gamesmanship with players' agents dies down. Its not as if Arrieta, Cobb, Lance Lynn etc. are going to sit out the 2018 season. At some point the game of chicken will end. -
What if we don't add a starter?
Jopal78 replied to jonescm128's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The fact of the matter is, they will have to add a SP or hope that Wade Miley or Gallardo has some juice left in their arms. The other options for SP just haven't thrown a lot of innings and the organization likely doesn't want to burnout the first collection of promising young arms they've had in a generation. Woodruff only pitched 120 innings last year, and never topped 158 in the minors. Counting on him to go 180+ might be a stretch. Likewise, Suter pitched 120 total innings last year, and may have more value as a multi-inning reliever. Burnes pitched 145 innings last year and will most assuredly open the season in the minor leagues, so he can't be counted on to start a significant amount of games for the big league team at this point. Junior Guerra doesn't have a workload issue but then again, he didn't exactly light it up last year. Wilkerson at 29 also likely doesn't have a workload issue, but can they count on him to keep the team in the game? -
The good news is, Neil Walker has essentially no leverage. The Angels, Mets and Yankees are no longer looking for 2B, and rebuilding clubs are likely not looking to hand out multi-year deals to players already in their 30s. After accepting a qualifying offer last year, Walker might have to take another one year deal, in which case I'd suspect he'd come back to the Brewers.
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Even with Rizzo and Bryant each playing over 150 games at First and Third base respectively; Cubs were able to get the following players the following at bats in 2017: Heyward 432 at bats (CF, RF) Zobrist 435 at bats (LF,RF,3B,2B,1B) Schwarber 422 at bats (LF, DH) Javy Baez 469 at bats (2B,3B,SS,1B,RF) Ian Happ 364 at bats (LF,CF,RF,2B,SS) Jon Jay 379 at bats (LF,CF,RF,DH) I don't see a problem in getting: Braun, Yelich, Cain, Santana, Thames, plenty of at bats if there is some flexibility in players playing both right and left field, center and left, etc.
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Atlanta already has Julio Teheran, Brandon McCarthy, Mike Foltynewicz penciled in for their rotation. Sean Newcomb, Max Fried, and Lucas Sims were all first round picks looking to crack their rotation with Luiz Gohara likely knocking on the door. Now add in Scott Kazmir and his 17.6 million dollar contract, and I don't see the need for a starter in Atlanta, especially one that will more likely than not be paid in the 18-20 million dollar per year range Finally, Braves are already at 116 million, to add another 18 to 20 million would push their payroll to an all time high for a team that is likely an also ran in 2018.
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More likely than not, Arrieta was not 100% healthy last year. He had a rough start to the year, possibly from a heavy workload in their championship year, and was given extra rest after suffering a leg injury in September. However, Arrieta was the same dominant pitcher after June 27th. After the 27th Arrieta did not give up more than 3 runs in a start for the rest of the year, including the playoffs. Of those 14 regular season starts after June 27th, Arrieta went 6 or more innings in nine of them. 70 strike outs against 24 walks in 80 innings, and opponents hit .206 off him as well. Those results are what you'd expect from an elite frontline starter. Even with a diminution of velocity, he clearly knows how to pitch effectively. I'd be happy to have him on the Brewers at whatever price, however they're a team without a history of committing 20+ million dollars per year to a free agent, so I doubt it will happen.
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I don't see Lucroy ever coming back. The prior regime rebuffed his overtures of extending him into his mid 30's. The new regime, must have arrived at the same conclusion as Melvin and Co., because they traded him away before his contract was even up (implying his value would never be higher). Beyond that, his statistics outside of Coors Field in 2017 simply are not good. The Brewers also have a history of handing out multi-year deals to aging catchers (Damian Miller and Jason Kendall) in their 30s with poor results. If Bandy outplays Vogt in camp, Vogt will likely be designated for assignment. However, given that Bandy didn't play much down the stretch after Vogt was acquired, the Brewers are most likely biding their time to see if a player they've identified as more valuable than either Vogt or Bandy becomes available prior to the start of the year.
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Not to high jack the thread, but why do people want Jonathon Lucroy back? He didn't hit at all last year outside of Coors Field. By all metrics his defense and pitch framing skills eroded since he was traded to Texas, and he's going to be 32. Not to mention, that Lucroy isn't likely to sign a one year deal. As for Cobb, if Darvish got an AAV of 21, and Garcia, Cachin, Cashner and Vargas got in the area of 8 million, it seems like the mid-point between those numbers is 14.5. I'm sure the players all have their arguments why they're worth more, but I wouldn't suspect Cobb to take anything less than a deal averaging 14.5 or more per year.
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Clevinger still has an option remaining. The Indians don't have any reason to trade him at this moment. If he doesn't crack their rotation, they'll option him to the minors for depth.
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I think its a valid criticism for an organization to overvalue its own prospects. Winning in baseball is hard, look no further than the Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun years. That core managed but three winning seasons and overall went 501- 471 (.515) from 2006 through 2011. There simply is no guarantee that the Brewers will be in the division race next year or in years to come. There's disadvantages to both sides of making a deal or not making a deal. Without quality reinforcements the Brewers will likely fade down the stretch in 2017, however the team's decision makers believe they're better off in the long run to have held on to all their key minor league players. Which brings up the second point: by definition prospect means many of these players will fail. Again, look no further than the archived Power 50 lists on this web page to see a litany of players who failed despite being touted as having great potential by some folks here who follow seriously the minor leagues: Will Inman, Angel Salome, Cole Gillespie, Matt Laporta, Mat Gamel, Zach Braddock, etc. As a fan I'm disappointed that there weren't reinforcements brought in this year, and I'm skeptical about how many of the prospects the Brewers have will turn out to be difference makers at the major league level, but the people who make these decisions have in essence staked their credibility on their evaluations of the players they currently have and as fans all we can do is sit back and see what happens this year and down the road.
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Even if the Cubs pull away with the Division, the Brewers still have a very good chance at the 2nd Wild Card. The Rockies started off hot in April (16-10) despite being outscored that month. Since then they've cooled off somewhat. They still have to play Cleveland (2), Kansas City (3), Milwaukee (3), with 7 games left against the Dodgers and 7 games left against Arizona. They're first in the NL in runs scored and tenth in runs allowed. They have one starter with more than 90 IP and a FIP under 4.79. In other words, the Rockies may have peaked early and the shoddy pitching and difficult schedule will be their undoing down the stretch. By contrast, outside of the three head to head games with Colorado, the Brewers only have 14 games remaining against teams currently with a winning record (7 against the Cubs, 4 against the Dodgers and 3 against Washington). The primary starting pitchers used by the Brewers all have FIPs below 4.42 The second wild card isn't ideal, but for a surprise team in a rebuild, I'll take it!
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Trade Deadline Day 2017 Predictions
Jopal78 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think the Brewers will end up with Kinsler. He would be an improvement over Villar both offensively and defensively. He is owed a fair amount of cash this year and has a 5 million dollar buy out on his team option for 2018. With an ultra low payroll the Brewers have the ability to absorb such a contract and buyout. Given that Detroit is looking to trim payroll they likely will move on from Kinsler after this season anyways, so why not get something in return now. Sogard's ankle injury ended his hot streak and he could be included in a trade for Kinsler to provide coverage for Detroit along with a second tier minor league player or two. -
Obviously there is Sonny Gray, and endless debate about the cost, but hard to argue he wouldn't fit a need with a rotation influx with ineffectiveness and injuries. I could see the Brewers making a trade with the Blue Jays for Joe Smith and Marco Estrada. It wouldn't cost them much in terms of minor leaguers and both players would shore up their respective positions somewhat. The Twins are selling, and Ervin Santana is a proven durable commodity for the rotation. His salary for 2018 isn't too hefty but there is a risk his performance could fall off at age 35. Likely wouldn't require top tier talent to acquire. Brad Hand from the Padres would be a great addition, Milwaukee's GM likely wouldn't part with the talent it would take to make a trade. I think Kinsler and Granderson are both possible if the Brewers are willing to take on their salaries.
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From Buyers to Sellers in Fourteen Days.
Jopal78 replied to BigDaddy1974's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Even if they decided to "sell" what parts do the Brewers have that they could realistically trade? Braun? If the Mets have little market for Jay Bruce, nobody is going to take on the financial commitment to Braun, not to mention his 10-5 rights. Garza? He's averaging less than 6 innings a start and has trouble staying healthy. He probably is worth more to the Brewers than he is to any other contending team. Swarzak has trade value but it's very improbable the Brewers would trade him away in less than a week's time. Sogard might have trade value too....in August. Everyone else is under control for 2018 and given the apparent reluctance to trade tomorrow's pieces to improve today, I don't think Milwaukee would swap out anyone on the big league roster that is under control beyond this year. -
I think the partial explanation is that in the second half of the year the bullpen starts to wear down from all the short starts. Indeed my recollection of 2004 was the rotation was thin outside Sheets and Doug Davis. Likewise this year, the rotation outside Anderson and Nelson has not frequently pitched very deep into games. Also typically the competition stiffens as the contenders load up on talent in the second half. In 2014 it was the Cardinals and Pirates that both played better than .575 baseball in the second half to blow past Milwaukee.
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I'm just disappointed the team falls apart just as they gain respectability. And it'd be okay if they were good games that they came up short, but with the Brewers they're constantly shooting themselves in the foot
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Sure hope we go out and get Neshek now
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The Brewers are the only NL central team in the last decade to be in first at the break and miss the playoffs in 2007, 2014 and ....
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In the last ten years who is the only team to lead the NL Central at the break and not make the playoffs??
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How many years did the teams with Fielder, Hart, Braun, Weeks compete for the playoffs (meaning in first place or amongst the top 4-5 teams in the NL? 2007,2008 and 2011. Are not legit contending seasons precious and warrant going for it? Quintana is a great pitcher with three more years of control and cost two top 100 prospects. If the Brewers could add Gray for one top 100 prospect and lesser prospects I'd do it. Nothing is more frustrating than watching a good team collapse down the stretch like the 2014 club
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The other point worth making is acquiring Gray would set the Brewers rotation going forward with Nelson, Anderson and Gray. That's three pretty good young starters with upside. Garza has a cheap club option for next year, then there's Davies, Guerra, Souter, with Woodruff knocking on the door and others not far behind. Milwaukee has not had that quality of depth in their rotation in 30+ years.
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Figures the starting pitching falters just as the trade deadline rolls around and Brewers not willing to meet price to get controllable arms
