Jopal78
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Everything posted by Jopal78
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I guess I’m in the minority here, but Buxton has played in 852 of a possible 1518 games since becoming a full time regular (56%). I just don’t see overwhelming interest in a player, no matter how talented, who’s guaranteed to miss time with injuries and has missed over 44% of his team’s games since becoming an opening day regular
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As a Twins fan you’re understandably failing to appreciate the scope of Buxton’s unavailability. He’s racked up 500 PAs or more in a season twice. That certainly with the Twins trying to manage his workload, keep him healthy etc. . Then compare him to Yelich with all his injuries since 2019, yet Yelich has failed to get 600 PAs just twice since then. Then to use your point, if theres one team, such as the Dodgers, who doesn’t mind guaranteeing $45,000,000 for, best case scenario, 1500 at bats over 3 years, what do you think the Twins return is going to be with just the one club being interested? Heck if there’s 2-3 teams interested even. It’s a preposterous notion the Twins would get much beyond salary relief in any Buxton trade. Which is in truth why he would be traded in the first place: a 90 loss team looking to trim payroll while rebuilding.
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It doesn’t matter. Does 9 wins above replacement mean anything when it’s the playoffs and he’s already done for the year with injuries? Or if his team misses the playoffs by a game and Buxton missed 30 games that season. How much is a player worth that you can’t count on to be available? It’s not hard to figure out. WAR is nice for fans and all but I can assure you front offices look at more than salary and WAR in forming their opinions of players. Look, if he’s got a 9 WAR the last 2 years and is on a steal of a contract as you say. Why are the Twins considering moving him? His production and guarantee are not the reason the team sucks. Thus, it has to be his unreliability. Unfortunately, it’s the decades worth of unreliability that’s going make him a No to most of the teams; and when nobody’s interested what does that do to the trade value?
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I think his trade value is probably close to zero. A player that while extremely talented has played in more than 92 games just 3 times in 11 years. That sort of unreliability probably makes him a no for the vast majority of teams right off the bat. Then the notion of giving up premium assets to get a player whose availability is a complete mystery… won’t happen. The truth is Buxton’s more likely to miss 35 games in 2026 with injuries than he is to hit another 35 homers next year. I’m sure if the Twins ate most of his contract they could unload him, but outside of Preller I can’t see a GM taking any sort of gamble on Buxton, especially as he enters his mid 30s.
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No, the point is the KBO is a league with inferior talent to MLB and even the NPB for that matter. Thus the correlation between success in the KBO carrying over to success in the major leagues isn’t great. Even recent reclamations like Fedde had one nice season in ‘24, then was figured out again and ended up getting released by 3 different clubs in ‘25.
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Marte has 10/5 rights, probably not being traded and especially Milwaukee without a sweetener.
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Yes, the Woodruff QO is mostly about getting a comp pick. The rest of the above is just an unrealistic take. Starting pitching is expensive. Scherzer and Verlander at 41 and 42 years old respectively each still made 15 million dollars this past season. From of the rotation starters in today’s game make 28-32+ million dollars a year. 22 million dollars for an oft inured front of the rotation starter still in his prime isn’t actually that outrageous in context. Then Logan Henderson is coming off a forearm strain which usually is the forerunner to a torn elbow ligament. Gasser has not really pitched since his own TJ. Ashby might be as injury prone as Woodruff missing an entire season with a shoulder injury, Then multiple months in both ‘24 and ‘25 with additional injuries. The Brewers would truly be operating without a safety net counting on any of those players to make 25+ starts for them in ‘26.
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First of all, Ponce sucked in the majors (2.1 HR/9and 11H/9) in a small sample, but such is life for pitchers who spend six years in the minors before their debut. Ponce didn’t really light it up in Japan either: his hits allowed, walks and strikeout ratios remained the same but he kept the ball in the ballpark more, which isn’t surprising in the NPB where homeruns are more rare than in MLB. Then in the inferior KBO his hits allowed went down and strikeouts went up while other ratios remained similar. Sure looks like another Josh Lindblom to me: a stiff who had a nice year against lower quality hitters than he’d see in the majors. I sure hope the Brewers learned their lesson with Lindblom and stay well away from Korean league reclamation projects.
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Being a crapshoot depends on the team doing the drafting. If there’s one organization that excels at identifying amateurs who may have a floor as being an average major leaguer it’s the Brewers. Moreover, the Brewers have a decent track record of finding players in the 2nd round or later: Misiorowski, Woodruff, Burnes, Williams, Tyrone Taylor etc. Yes, typically those late comp picks don’t amount to much but the Brewers are one of the few teams that have shown proficiency in finding players in those areas of the draft
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I think you’re hitting the point. To keep the pipeline of talent flowing to the major league roster in Milwaukee you don’t let star players walk away for nothing; you either trade them for young talent or offer them the QO to get the extra pick in the first part of the draft if they leave. Just like trading a player away for young players, there’s risk that those young players won’t turn out. There’s a risk that Woodruff accepts the QO. It’s hard to handicap what will happen. Woodruff could accept the QO and try free agency again in 2026, or he could play it safe and take a multiyear deal somewhere else likely for less AAV but larger overall guarantee than 22 million.
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My point isn’t about Hoskins, it is what the going rate for free agents is. Spend a minute looking around at what even mediocre free agents with warts are getting. I think you will find, any player who plugs in as an everyday player is close to $15-18 million: Hoskins, Joc Pederson, Profar etc. Career year by Grisham in ‘25, yeah maybe. He wouldn’t be the first player to cash in after a career year. For sure there will be teams looking for an everyday center fielder or to add power and speed to their lineup and he’s coming off a big time season. So you might think he’s trash but the demand will likely be there .
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Sure he hit .235 but his OBP was .348 and his slugging was .464. Away from Yankee Stadium he was a monster in ‘25 .269/.367/.537. Grisham would have lead the Brewers in slugging and homers in 25. He plays CF and won’t be 30 until the 2027 season. Predicting contract length is hard, but Grisham is more than likely closer to 20 million AAV than 15 (Hoskins older and coming off a major injury got 17 mil AAV with the Brewers) as refernced in the above projection .
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Professional sports are exploitative by their nature. Cost controlling players for a certain number of seasons after they turn pro. Forcing amateur talent in the US to be in a draft with slotted values in order to turn pro. Solely in baseball, signing kids from the DR for pennies on the dollar of what they’d earn as a draftee stateside. Early contract extensions where the player is leaving tens if not hundreds of million dollars on the table for more up front.
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I think you need to take Woodruff‘s metrics with a grain of salt. The Brewers nursed him through 2025. Woodruff was babied through the 2025 season receiving a full five days rest between nearly every start, sometimes more. When he was pitching, the Brewers rarely pushed him past 85 pitches. In the 4 starts they did, he had an ERA over 6.00. In the starts where he threw 90 or more pitches he had an era over 9.00. Then, despite being eased back into action with kid gloves he suffered additional injuries in May, and again in September (not to mention getting hit by a line drive on the elbow). People also forget Woodruff missed a huge chunk of the ‘23 season with a different shoulder injury before tearing the capsule and rotator cuff and has made it to 30 starts just once in his career. So one guy gave up too many homers at Wrigley in ‘25, the other’s medical file and durability are huge red flags. But I think you’re right time will tell soon enough.
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The Cubs declined a 3 year/57 million dollar option on Imanaga. Kind of similar pitchers: Woodruff more of a track record, but marginally older and greater history of major injury. my guess would be if the Cubs are unwilling to go 3/57 with Imanaga they probably aren’t many teams that are going to go 3/60 with Woodruff. Perhaps Woodruff‘s availability is a problem for the Brewers. If not, they have nothing to really lose by offering him a one-year at the QO price with the club option for the following year in the same neighborhood with a small buyout attached. Woodruff performs well in 2026 declines the player option he would’ve done better than just the QO and re-enters free agency. If he is injured or pitches poorly they have a bad contract on their books for one season. When 40-year-olds like Verlander and Charlie Morton are getting $15-$16 16 million a year. There’s not a whole lot of downside to keeping quality starting pitcher around if you can.
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Why does it rub you the wrong way? There is a finite amount of resources to be spent on Baseball Operations. $700-$900k saved might not gain them much on the major league roster but it could mean all the difference between signing an international kid they like, and not. Secondly, it’s professional sports; there’s no loyalty either way. Teams don’t pay players more than they have to simply to be nice, and players don’t take less money than they could otherwise earn just to be cordial.
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William Contreras Has "Minor" Surgery On Middle Finger
Jopal78 replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Ok, why would the Brewers declining their half of option bother Contreras a bit? Unless he and his representatives are all nincompoops, they would have known at the time he signed it, that he would unlikely be awarded a salary in excess of 12 million dollars. Thus he’s got nothing to lose and gets an extra $100,000 for an option unlikely to be exercised anyway. The only alternative explanation is he and his agents believed he would likely do better than 12 million for 2026 and he inexplicably signed the club option anyways. That would mean they’re all idiots . -
Offseason Big Name Potential Targets
Jopal78 replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
In the last ten years the Brewers have signed 1 free agent with a total guarantee of more than 50 million dollars. Anybody truly expecting them to dip their toes in the first wave of free agency hasn’t been paying attention and will likely be disappointed. Arnold doesn’t start shopping until late January. Brian Anderson: January 23 Luke Voit: February 21 Hoskins: January 26 Junis: February 7 Elvin Rodriguez: January 17 Gary Sanchez: February 21 Tyler Anderson: February 15 Quintana: March 5 -
Don’t be a cheapskate “as I remember it” from an article written 18 months ago. Go read the actual article. It’s crystal clear what he means. Anyways, your mid is made up and infallible, so no point in discussing it further.
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You don’t have to take my word for it; here’s the exact quote from May 17, 2024 as reported to Todd Rosiak regarding an extension with Milwaukee. “I’m not interested in that. I’m here playing my game, and I know my time is going to come”. Like I said earlier, every player will say they “want to stay”, or “love the city,” “feels like home” etc. It’s good PR to do so. But at the end of the day, they play for money and almost all pro-ballplayers don’t really give a crap where they “work” as long as it’s for the most money they can get. So if you want to believe the platitudes go ahead, but money talks always.
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Go search the JSOnline archives from 2024 and you’ll find the quote from Contreras paraphrased: he’s not interested in an extension that would delay his free agency. Now, from a PR standpoint no player (except maybe the brutally honest Aramis Ramirez or Yasmani Grandal) wants to appear greedy so they always say they are open to an extension. They just leave out the second part: if and only if said extension is at top of the market prices.
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He’s barely played and will be going on 31 when’s Mitchell is eligible for free agency. I don’t know why anyone would pay a premium up front to secure the services of an injury prone player as he moves into his early 30s. Now, I’m sure Mitchell would love to get some guaranteed money up front instead of going year to year in arbitration where his chronic unavailability will certainly hurt his pay. But what value would the Brewers get from giving him an extension?
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The front office would not be very good at their jobs if they declined a $12 million option without knowing the likelihood they’ll end up paying more. If MLB TradeRumors can put up arbitration projections that are fairly accurate; I think it’s safe to say the Brewers, with non-public data and algorithms, know already what they’ll have to pay Contreras in 2026. Frankly, the ability to decline the club option in 2026 is the point of having it. With no real comps (most catchers at Contreras’s age and service time are making far less money. The highest paid players at catcher are all far more experienced, and on multiyear deals) they’re protecting themselves from the possibility of an adverse award at arbitration. It certainly won’t come as a surprise to Contreras either. If he didn’t know his chances of eclipsing 12 million dollars when he gave the team a club option, then either he and/or his agents are incredibly stupid.
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I believe the JS reported back in 2024 that Contreras is not interested in an extension. Of course, most players would interested in an extension if it’s for top of the market pay, but outside of Yelich it’s not something the Brewers do. There is no need to extend Frelick he’ll already be 30 by the time he’s a free agent. The Brewers would have to be supremely confident Sal will continue to improve up until his 30s to derive any real value from an extension into his 30s. Same deal with Turang. Milwaukee would have to be convinced the value of Turang’s performance as he ages into his 30s will be worth paying more upfront now than they have to going year to year. Durbin will already be 26 on Opening Day next season, and his rookie status is still intact. Nuff said. The Brewers would be prudent if they could get Misiorowski to sign an Ashby like extension. But I think if Misiorowski was willing to give the Brewers cost security for arbitration years, and club options beyond his six seasons of control, it would have been done already. The others: Henderson, Patrick and Made have too many questions to accurately assess their future value and determine if an extension would benefit Milwaukee.
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$12,000,000 would place Contreras 5th highest paid at the catcher position, and his salary would likely then grow exponentially after that for 2027. Pretty easy business decision for Milwaukee to decline the option and go to arbitration. Not only for their budget, but inevitably for suitors when Milwaukee trades him at some point after January 1, 2027.
