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Jopal78

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Everything posted by Jopal78

  1. Jopal78
    Last year is last year. Who cares? I hope teams they don’t build a roster for 2027 based on what players did in 2025. I get the metrics and it doesn’t make what I said untrue: Vaughn is getting better results, but the ball is not coming off his bat harder than it did with the Sox. In fact some of the power-contact numbers are worse now than with Chicago. We also know the Brewers hand out $10 million dollar salaries very infrequently, so the question becomes is $10M for a platoon first baseman/DH with shaky power-contact metrics the best use of that money? Based on their recent roster building trends I think they move on from Vaughn as a non-tender/salary dump.
  2. Jopal78
    I wrote This year… The approach/pitch selection is markedly improved but the exit velocity this year is basically the same as it was with Chicago, his hard hit rate is down and his barrel rate has cratered. The .528 slugging percentage on the stat sheet is real, but the xSLG is .407 suggesting the power output is probably running ahead of underlying contact. He’s getting better results but the ball is not coming off the bat harder than with Chicago, and with a BABiP of .369 that tells us there will likely be some regression by the time the dust clears.
  3. Jopal78
    Like I said, take the last 5-6 years and add up the players making more than 10 million dollars a year as a Brewer and NOT on a multi-year deal. If you want to go deeper, Vaughn’s metrics aren’t wholly that much better this year than with the White Sox. Better at taking pitches, better lineup, but there hasn’t been some rebirth. Is he going to join the rare club of Brewers making $10 million dollars a year, while coming off the bench…. I doubt it. They’d even be ahead to give Bauers the QO if it exists, and non-tender Vaughn to offset set the cost
  4. Jopal78
    It’s an opinion based on historical roster construction. If you take a look at the number of players the Brewers have with salaries above 9 million dollars it’s Yelich, Woodruff and Contreras. Anything is possible but given how they operate they’re just not going to carry a 9-10 million dollar platoon 1B. Note the second part of my post about tanking trade value. Sure they could tender Vaughn with the intention of immediately trading him in a salary dump just like they did with Renfroe (btw Renfroe was also likely 10+ million dollars in arbitration), but similarly the pieces coming back for a player in a straight salary dump are likely depth pieces at best (Junk, Peguero, Seminaris), not to mention they would absolutely know they were trading him before tendering him a contract.
  5. Jopal78
    However they’re deploying Vaughn it is obviously working, however he is making $7+ million dollars this season and is essentially a platoon player. At a likely $9 or $10 million dollars for 2027, the Brewers will almost certainly non-tender him, which also likely tanks any trade value .
  6. Jopal78
    I’m not claiming it is either. My whole point was, the Brewers are a good team, I don’t need to see the metrics over their last 200 games to know that. Despite being a good team in the regular season, it’s an unfair playing field in the playoffs and the big market clubs are usually going to have their number because of more star power & depth (“talent”) which almost always beats strategy and style of play.
  7. Jopal78
    As Chase Burns mows them down through 5 innings, maybe. I do know they’ve lost to Crochet, Mize, Skenes, Yamato this year while beating Fried and Christopher Sanchez. Sale gave up 0 earned runs in a no decision, and they had Skubal beat before he escaped with an ND. (2-4-2 against star pitchers so far….2-5-2 unless they comeback to win this one). But I suppose there would need to be a definition of “great pitching” to really identify a trend. Also some decent evidence of the lack of dominant starting pitching across MLB.
  8. Jopal78
    It’s kind of my point. When they run up against a team in the playoffs whose starting pitchers pound the zone, limit mistakes while pitching 28 2/3 innings out of a possible 36, it’s kind of the kryptonite to grinding out at bats, applying pressure with speed and creating runs on the base paths, etc. Meanwhile, outside the Miz, the Brewers have a cadre of SPs who average 5 innings a start and they rely heavily on bullpen arms so they have to use them all in high stakes playoff series even the low leverage ones. It’s an unfair system. it doesn’t get much better following the Milwaukee Brewers in the regular season, but in the playoffs, this version of David is not likely to slay Goliath no matter how good the slingshot technique is.
  9. Jopal78
    I don’t think the issue is whether the Brewers are good or not. Of course they are. The real question is whether their formula of pitching/defense and grinding out at bats with below average power is capable of surviving in October when margins are thinner, bullpens are shortened and they face fewer pitchers who they can simply outlast. So far history hasn’t been kind to the Brewers in that regard.
  10. Jopal78
    The Posey rule is stupid to begin with, and was yet another knee jerk reaction from MLB because a star got hurt in national television. If the catcher is going to block the plate fine, but the runner should be able to push them out of the way to score. Sliding into a shin guard at full speed is also a good way to get hurt. Besides, now the game is subject to interpretation when the ball got to the catcher, when the catcher blocked the plate, etc.
  11. Jopal78
    Yes, I’m aware. Calculate the stats myself. Looked at wrong column. The point remains, the challenge is to get the strike outs under control as the quality of opposing pitching increases while not conceding power FWIW. Hiura struck out 25.2%
  12. Jopal78
    Way off topic but Fischer is at about a 44% K rate now. Could he cut that down to 30% without changing his power game to do so? Maybe. But at 30% he’d still Russell Branyan 2.0.
  13. Jopal78
    Oh man, his nickname should be Hollywood. Hollywood Made it had just about the best ring to it of any baseball nickname outside of Oil Can or Catfish
  14. Jopal78
    Of the Giants players with onerous contracts he is the one they're purportedly least inclined to trade. So what do you give up to get him if your intent is simply to trade him again after 60 games, and would that potential return even be tempting to the Giants?
  15. Jopal78
    That’s kind of the thing with Williams. His play in AAA so far is validating the concerns of evaluators; mainly that he may not have enough power given his size. He certainly won’t be on any prospect lists once those are rewritten following the draft. Does anybody trade for him as a centerpiece in a deal for a veteran player of consequence?
  16. Jopal78
    Levering. Grindle and Mauer, are all awful.
  17. Jopal78
    But….then again until Correa went down with an injury Paredes was going to be a bench player, and will likely be again next year if in Houston. So the real question is does an aging team with an empty farm system hang on to essentially a surplus player because they’re floating near the race, or do they cash him in while value is the highest?
  18. Jopal78
    Hahaha, ok bro.
  19. Jopal78
    It’s not even July 1st!? Surely the Angels, or any seller, will wait a month so teams get desperate and they can get the best talent back in return. So unless by “reasonable” you mean an offer they can’t refuse, a trade for quality relievers isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
  20. Jopal78
    Really? With Suppan, Braden Looper, Dave Bush a bunch of SPs with ERAs over 5. You must love punishment. Haha. FWIW Brewers took 2 of 3 from the Phillies a couple weeks back, and lost the rubber match against the Braves on a 2 run walk off homer in the bottom of the 9th. I would say they gave those teams all they could handle
  21. Jopal78
    What would you have them do to NOT be at a disadvantage against the Dodgers in a 7 game series? Sheesh, local broadcast revenue has made it an unfair game. Enjoy the ride. this Brewers group is way more fun to follow than any player group they’ve had since the 1980s.
  22. Jopal78
    Hahaha, yeah fire him!! What’s the weak spot? The Cubs took the series on a one run game in extra innings. Cubs patched together bullpen was nails the last two games. 11 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6H 4BB, 13K. in baseball sometimes you just get beat.
  23. Jopal78
    Brewers should’ve signed Bryce Wilson and Pomeranz
  24. Jopal78
    Man, you wouldn’t know Bryce Wilson has been released 3 times in the last 18 months.
  25. Jopal78
    Sure but if you were GM of a team would you trade for him now knowing there’s a good chance he’s DFA’d and you could acquire him for nothing this winter?
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