RollieTime

If Cook plays, the Vikings have a chance. Their defense is pretty solid and should keep the game relatively close. You would think one of these games Cousins is going to step up and play well in a big moment, even if it’s just for one game and he reverts back to his normal self. Maybe this game is the one where he plays extremely well and gets a big win.

I feel like our lack of having a quality tight end might be part of the reason why our offense hasn’t been as consistent as in years past as well. Finley had his drop issues, but he was a legit threat and brought some speed. What we’ve had the last few years at the tight end position just won’t get it done. The poor wide receiving core (depth wise) doesn’t help at all either, but when the defense doesn’t need to worry about a tight end stretching the field, and in our case, defenses could use their nose tackle to keep up with our tight end, it certainly doesn’t help the wide receiving core either. The safeties don’t need to worry about a tight end getting loose over the middle and can cheat over to help on guys like Adams and Lazard. And yes I know that Graham has his catches and looks productive stats wise. But he sure doesn’t draw the attention or have that home run threat to keep defenses honest either. I think it’s more of a defender not picking him up and him getting open looks once in a while from not being covered well or much at all. The wide receiving core and tight end position need to be a big focus this offseason.

Condolences to Marvin and his family. Just a truly awful thing that he and his family have endured. I wish nothing but the best for them as they work through this difficult time.

It would be a roster crunch with Castellanos this year, but with Braun and Smoak (if we decline the option) gone after this season, it would work out fine. If we had to have a roster crunch for one year to get Castellanos for another 4-5, it would work out fine. Braun might only be able to play 3 or 4 games per week this season or maybe someone like Cain will have a season ending surgery in April. Having a couple everyday quality bats on the bench to start the year isn’t a bad option at all.

I just thought of this today... But wouldn’t it be at least a LITTLE bit comical to play the Ravens in the Super Bowl and watch Blake Martinez trying to chase down Lamar Jackson?

I mentioned that quite a while ago as well. His daughter needs another open heart surgery I know sometime between 1.5 and 3 years old. She was born in June of 2017, so she’s 2.5 years old. It’s definitely reasonable to think she may have been having complications or he could have been stressing over her upcoming surgery. Maybe she has already had that surgery mid season last season and there’s some issues that arose? Maybe she’s having surgery this offseason and couldn’t get it out of his head? I haven’t heard of any update on her. Everybody handles situations differently, but it’s not as simple as just clearing your mind when you’re up to bat to not think of her. If his mind wasn’t right or wasn’t clear because he was stressing about her health, it is definitely a legit reason as to why he may have had his struggles. But if I had to guess, his mind was on his daughter’s health while trying to hit 95+ mph pitches and just wasn’t in the right state of mind to play baseball effectively. I would bet that if she is or was having health issues last season or has an upcoming surgery, that if she’s healthy by the start of next season, Shaw will have a very good season like he did for us in 2017 and 2018. If we hear that she’s having surgery at some point during the season in 2020, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him continue to struggle until after that stress in his life has passed.

Yeah, with the wording, it sounds like the Brewers had that offer on the table from the Mets and they ended up pivoting. If the rumors are true, I would take it as Stearns wasn’t satisfied with that return and was asking for more. The Mets decided to go elsewhere.

With what’s being rumored from some of these random accounts, whether any of them have any legit sources remains to be seen, but rushing to trade Hader now probably isn’t the best decision for the packages being listed. In my opinion, if these are the best offers we can get right now, hold onto Hader until July and let the bidding war begin. Hope that Hader continues his dominance and that he doesn’t struggle in July when talks really start heating up. Wait for a team to make a rash decision that hasn’t been competitive for a while and is trying to compete (White Sox, Angels, Padres, the Reds even) or a team like the Dodgers having their entire bullpen fall apart and come crawling to us knowing they need massive upgrades with the clock ticking and restless fans starting to get on them even more. Desperate teams lead to big returns. The offseason is normally not a time where teams make desperate moves. Wait until mid season when teams can see the finish line and can smell the postseason.

No, no. My apologies, not arguing with you at all. I don't necessarily agree with the conclusions that are being drawn based on arbitrary assumptions and there is definitely some hyperbole going on but I get your perspective. My apologies as well. We just seemed to be mostly on the same page so I was a little confused what was going on lol. Not a problem. But for a long term solution, I hope the Brewers explore something like a 6/$90 million contract with Castellanos (AAV of $15 million). Braun is off the books next year and a contract like this would only go through his age 33 season. Not a bad deal at all. Especially for a player just entering his prime and a guy I think could be a middle of the order bat for us now and in the future. I expect Castellanos is waiting on Donaldson to come off the board so teams pivot to him and throw money at him. I feel like $90 million over 6 years is a very competitive offer and one that wouldn’t be a massive risk for us knowing that he’s a .280ish hitter that will hit 25-30 homers and hit around 40 doubles. He might even have a little untapped potential in there that could break loose in 2020. I feel that a move like this to fill the hole at third is better than possibly pigeonholing ourselves in a way on a trade of Hader to include a third baseman. Keep Hader, bring in Flores for third base, and sign Castellanos as a right fielder/possibly 3B/possibly 1B option. Getting at bats to everyone will sort itself out along the way.

I even said in my post that it’s tough to come to a definitive conclusion based on his one season. I even stated that he can definitely still improve his defense at the end of my post. Are you just arguing with me for the sake of it at this point? You’re making it sound like I’m saying absolute statements even though the arguments you’re trying to make against me are actually exactly what I said. One season isn’t enough and that he can still improve. The point was that Castellanos was a better defender than Andujar at third when he was moved off of it. The numbers point to it his last three years after his first horrendous year. Not saying that Castellanos can move back to third after a couple years and pick up where he left off. But Castellanos was a better defender there than Andujar has shown in his first full season. And on your last point regarding Hader, I never said Andujar had to be a centerpiece. I stated before in the Hader thread that if Andujar is a secondary or third piece in a deal, then I’m all for it. But a headliner of Andujar for the two year running relief pitcher of the year that has 4 years of control remaining, would be an extremely underwhelming return knowing that Andujar would be the “big get”. I just don’t see Stearns moving Hader for a guy who probably shouldn’t be playing in the field, who just had major surgery on his throwing arm, as a headliner on a return and trying to sell that to the fans during this competitive window. When other people think of Brewers baseball right now, they think of Bob Uecker, Christian Yelich, and that fireman Josh Hader coming out of the pen to put an end to the game. Stearns will not trade a player of Hader’s caliber for a bunch of flawed or mediocre talent.

Why would DS get fleeced and Cashman make out like a bandit two years later? This just seems irrational to me (I know you are not irrational). Further, why are we basing the value of the return on arbitrary prospect rankings? How did those prospects work out? Were they really the 21st and 69th best prospects? What if DS values say, Garcia, as a top 20 prospect (not that a GM would think in terms of rankings)? Honestly, do we not trust DS over a bunch of under-informed message board junkies (myself included)? It was more of a thinking/speaking out loud moment of “because Yankees”. The market will be depressed while we trade him now and then the Yankees will trade him down the line at the trade deadline in a couple years and get an equal to or better package from a desperate small market team that’s in a bidding war with other playoff hopefuls. It’s just our luck and a scenario I could see playing out for them strictly “because it’s the Yankees”. I have a ton of faith in Stearns and I feel like he will either get the moon (or close to it) or hold onto Hader through the first half and re-evaluate.

You are much more informed than me on this so lay it out for me. What metric, that is reliable with basically one year of data, is being used to determine that Andujar is the worst 3B since Ryan Braun (hyperbolic, yes)? What skill set does Castellanos possess that allowed to improve that Andujar does not have? Is Andujar stiff? Is he not athletic enough to improve? Will all the shifting we do mitigate some of the issues? Can he be moved to another position in a year or two and we survive with him at third for a couple of years? Not being a jerk or sarcastic, I legitimately respect your thoughts on these questions. All of these numbers will be Andujar’s 1,200 inning results compared to Castellanos’ in 4,400 innings. rGDP was -3 in 1200 innings for Andujar. Castellanos’ was -2 in 4,400 innings. Andujar’s rGFP was -4, Castellanos is -1. RPM: Andujar -19, Castellanos is -60 (with half of that in his first year, the next 3 years was right around -10, being much better than Andujar). DRS: Andujar -27, Castellanos -64, again, 30 of that was in his first season, it was “only” -34 the next 3 years combined. OOZ: Andujar 30, Castellanos 161, Andujar would be around 110 for this if playing the same amount of innings. DPR : Andujar -2.7, Castellanos -1.4 RngR: Andujar -11.8, Castellanos -28.6. Almost 11 of that was his first season. His last two years were around -5. ErrR: Andujar -3.8, Castellanos 4.2 UZR: Andujar was -18.3, Castellanos -25.8 (mind you Castellanos has played almost 4 times as many innings at third for this. Andujar was -16 last year. Castellanos’ worst season wasn’t even -11. His was well improved after his first terrible season). UZR/150: Andujar -26.1, Castellanos -7.4 Some of these are tough to judge because of Andujar’s lone season to go off of to see if it is a trend or just one brutal season. I would say it is probably a trend and why I would have no interest in Andujar as a centerpiece. For as much flack as Castellanos gets for how poor he was at third, Andujar truly is on his own level of bad well beyond Castellanos. At least the numbers point towards that in his first season. He can definitely still improve obviously, but he’s not going to probably ever even come close to an average defender. Time will tell though.

Watch out, this White Sox team is going to make a strong push for a playoff spot. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them win 90-92 games this season. They have substantially improved their entire roster this offseason.

To be fair, Castellanos had one absolutely terrible year at 3B his first full year in the majors when he was only 22 years old. Not saying that Andujar couldn’t progress like Castellanos did, but Andujar was much much worse than what Castellanos was at third the 3 years after his absolutely brutal rookie campaign. Castellanos would be a poor defender at third base, but Andujar is on a whole other level beyond Castellanos. Which is pretty darn telling of just how bad he is defensively.

If Hader is moved, I hope it’s with the Dodgers as I feel like they have much better pieces to acquire than what the Yankees have to offer unless they are offering significant contributors off of their roster. The one thing that I would hate to see is Hader get traded to the Yankees for a package of Garcia, Andujar, and Florial, and then when he only has a year and a half left of control, they turn around and trade him and get 2 top 50 prospects with a couple additional high upside fliers when that’s something people are dismissing right now with 4 full years of control. Andrew Miller is another example of an elite reliever being moved and he brought back the 21st and 69th best prospects as well as 2 fliers. That was for only one and a half years of control. Edwin Diaz was moved with 4 years of control left for the 62nd and 89th best prospects in baseball, a third promising looking prospect, while also ridding themselves of an absolute albatross of a contract in Cano by taking on a couple smaller poor contracts. The two main pieces they received were definitely on the upswing and moving a contract as terrible as Cano’s would greatly eat into the return package. I would say that if Hader is moved, it is very realistic to expect a top 20 prospect as well as another in the 50-60 range or so at the very least. With at least 2 other high upside guys coming back in the deal. If a deal doesn’t present itself, hold off on moving Hader until the deadline or next offseason. Obviously if Hader struggles, his value will tank. But if he dominates in the first half, waiting until the deadline might be a wise idea. Getting a couple surprise smaller market teams in the playoff hunt could see them make a strong push for relief help at the deadline and make a true bidding war while fighting the trade deadline clock. Even just waiting until he only has 2 years left and then still moving him for a similar package as to what we could get now would make sense. Teams need to step up and offer a haul or continue to overspend on lesser talents in free agency. It’s just a terrible thought to trade with the Yankees now and then see them move Hader with a year and a half left and they somehow get a better haul than what we did while they had him for 2+ seasons. Seems like the Yankees somehow can move relievers and get hauls for them, but others are just supposed to cave in and move Hader for a pretty average package. I would say it wouldn’t be a bad idea to just hold off and move Hader near the trade deadline when teams are desperate for help and more willing to make a rash decision to make a playoff push. Even if we are in a playoff spot at the time, Hader can be moved. If Knebel comes back healthy and a couple guys like Devin Williams or Peralta can take a step forward, or maybe even a guy like Rasmussen can come up and be a solid late game option for us, it would make a trade of Hader much easier. Plus, Stearns will go out and get a little bullpen help at the deadline as well to help shore up the bullpen.

Actually, by saying they are the first two pieces makes it sound like they are the BEST two pieces. Then following it up with the sweeteners are what is holding it up, makes it sound like sweeteners are the throw ins... Sweeteners is a term not used in describing the best part of a deal, but in fact, the opposite. Sweeteners usually means throw ins or lottery tickets... Ding ding ding... We have a winner! This is exactly the truth.

2 and 1/2 years of Andrew Miller netted 4 prospects, one ranked in the top 25 and one ranked in the top 70. Garcia and Dominguez are both in the 60-70 range just for reference.

Nothing more than Twitter rumors but it sounds like those first two pieces (Garcia and Andujar) are agreed on. It's the sweeteners preventing a deal to this point. Also seems like other teams are jumping in to help drive the offers closer to what the Brewers are willing to accept. Can you send a link? If this is true, the sweeteners better include Dominguez++. Otherwise this will be an extremely underwhelming return. If they could get something like the 4 you listed above and Dominguez, I could at least stomach it. Stearns would have to be very high on Garcia to pull the trigger. I would much rather get a big headlining piece in a trade and get 3 guys back total instead of getting a bunch of decent talent and getting 5. Not saying Dominguez couldn’t be special down the road if he was part of a return, but there’s not much coming back to really help us now. Frazier and Ford are totally blocked with what we have on the roster currently. Garcia isn’t ready to be on the big league roster. The only immediate help we would get is Andujar who is Braun bad at third. Hopefully there is better out there. Edit to add that I do still have a hard time thinking this is all we could get. There should be a couple high quality prospects coming back as well as significant major league help. Andujar plays a position of need, but isn’t anybody we should target as a main piece. Again, Stearns has no rush to make a trade if he’s not overwhelmed by an offer. I would consider no part of this proposal to be overwhelming with talent.

I do still hold out a sliver of hope for someone like Castellanos, but we would definitely have a good bat or two on the bench everyday, which isn’t a bad thing. Unless of course you make him the everyday third baseman. I don’t see them bringing in Castellanos to play him at third, but anything is possible. Even if he was going to predominantly play the outfield where we already have 4 quality players including Braun, I suppose you could just bring him in and figure it out later once injuries happen. If we remain generally healthy all year, we could move Braun to first full time and have Avisail become the 4th outfielder that will get 400+ at bats anyway? Yelich, Cain, and Castellanos in the outfield with Garcia getting ~100 starts for off days and injuries. Castellanos could possibly see some time at first as well, opening up playing time for Garcia if one of Braun or Smoak goes down. That could probably work. It would be nice to have a big bat in the middle of the lineup with Yelich and Hiura. Having that much depth on the roster to field a quality lineup even if a couple guys are missing from injury or just receiving a maintenance day wouldn’t be a bad thing at all. It would allow us to have some nice pinch hitting options later in games as well. I would be all for a Castellanos signing. The playing time will sort itself out later.

Merry Christmas to all of you! Hopefully you are all able to enjoy time with family on this special day. With a little luck, if you were nice this year, maybe even Santa or Mrs. Claus will have a special gift for you as well!

Here are two trade ideas that would make me consider moving Hader to either the Phillies or Diamondbacks (if we were to make a deal with them). Phillies Trade: Phillies Receive: LHP Josh Hader Brewers Receive: RHP Seranthony Dominguez (5 years control of reliever) 3B/1B Alec Bohm (Phillies #1 Prospect) RHP Spencer Howard (Phillies #2 Prospect) OF Mickey Moniak (Phillies #8 Prospect) Dominguez is brought in to replace Hader’s spot in the bullpen. The other 3 prospects will all have a chance at making the big league club at some point in 2020. Diamondbacks Trade: Diamondbacks Receive: LHP Josh Hader Brewers Receive: RHP Luke Weaver (4 years control for starting pitcher) OF Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks #1 Prospect) 1B/OF Seth Beer (Diamondbacks #4 Prospect) C Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks #5 Prospect) Brewers get a mid rotation starting pitcher with 4 years of control, bumping Houser to the bullpen where he showed very well last season. Varsho could possibly be the Brewers’ catcher of the future while adding a legit 1B prospect to the system and an OF prospect in Thomas that is at least a couple years away, but has a ton of upside.

LeMahieu and Paxton both only have one year left on their deals. So I would say no, it’s not realistic for a return if those are the main two pieces. If it’s Severino, it could work. If the prospect is then Dominguez, now you might have Stearns’ attention with a Severino, Dominguez, LeMahieu/Andujar return. LeMahieu could be the stopgap at third for this season or Andujar could be the backup at first and play some third with Severino slotting in at the top of the rotation with Woodruff, while getting an extremely young and talented prospect with massive upside.

Exactly. Hader is being moved for legit high end talent and not a bunch of guys with low ceilings and roster filler. It’s going to be an impact player if Cashman really wants Hader.

Realistically, there is no way that Stearns goes into negotiations not expecting one of Torres, Severino, or Judge coming back in my opinion. Whether he is able to pry one away, we shall (maybe) see. Again, Hader is not being traded for the Yankees’ spare parts that they don’t need. Stearns is not going to trade Hader for a bunch of “meh” players. If Hader is moved and it’s only between the Yankees and Brewers, I will be shocked if one of those three aren’t included in the Brewers’ return. The only other possibility is if the Yankees give up so much solid talent that they might pull the trigger, something like Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar, Gio Urshela, Deivi Garcia, and Jasson Dominguez. The Brewers need to be absolutely blown away to pull the trigger, and something like Andujar plus a couple prospects really does not trip the trigger in my opinion. I just see no way it’s even considered unless an all-star talent such as the big three listed above are included in the return package. I know it’s a big debate of two sides one being “people are going to be extremely underwhelmed” or “most of these trades being proposed are terrible for the Brewers”, but realistically, if you were going to trade FOR Hader right now, what would we need to give up? I would say we would be extremely hesitant to do it because most of us here would be saying there’s no way one of Hiura or Woodruff is not included. Something like Woodruff, AND Turang, AND Lutz, AND Peralta. But when it’s us who has the absolute most prized reliever in the entire game for 4 years, we think spare parts will do it. The Yankees just do not have the prospects to get it done. And if they aren’t going to include Judge, Severino, or Torres, you tell them to pound sand. We hold all the cards. Stearns has all the leverage. The Yankees shouldn’t even be calling if they are going to offend us by offering us their bench bats and quite frankly useless defenders in the field. How is that for an absolute slap in the face to Stearns being offered bench pieces from Cashman to come in and be our everyday guys? That’s not a good way to go about negotiations as a GM. Yes, if I wanted Hader, I would love to give up our role players and backend top 100 prospects for the greatest reliever in the game for 4 years. But to me, that is completely unrealistic. So why is it so unrealistic for us to shoot for the moon and not lower our standards? Either it’s high end quality major league players with multiple years of control or multiple top 50 prospects. The Yankees will need to trade from the major league roster to get a deal done and taking their bench bats to give them the best reliever in the game for 4 years is not exactly an even trade in my eyes. Stearns would have a tough time selling that to the fans. The Yankees will need to step up if they want to make a real run at getting Hader. Severino, Torres, or Judge or no deal. Severino is probably the most realistic and would be a nice arm to pair at the top of the rotation with Woodruff for the next 4 years.

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