RollieTime

There's a few sport clips that no matter how many times I watch them I just cant help but smile. That is one of them. Mine is the Randall Cobb TD late against the Bears to clinch the division. Streaking down the middle of the field I believe on 4th and 8 with about 30 ticks to go. Mine was the Brewers’ second home game of the year in 2018. Brewers down by 1 with two outs in the bottom of the 9th to the Cardinals and Yelich and Braun hit back to back home runs on back to back pitches. I get goosebumps every time I watch it. Plus, I was there at that game about 4 rows behind the Brewers’ dugout!

I have no issue with Andujar coming back in a return, but he definitely should not be the headliner. If he’s the second or third piece, yes absolutely. But if that’s the best guy they are getting back and the rest of the return package is a bunch of prospects (which they have little to no true impact prospects in their system outside of the 16 year old), then it’s a no deal. Honestly, one of Severino, Torres, or Judge should be demanded in part of a return with the Yankees. If you’re getting arguably the top reliever in the game with 4 years of cheap control, you’re giving up an all-star caliber player or top of the rotation arm with multiple years of control. Otherwise, you move on. The Yankees just don’t have the horses to get it done in my opinion unless one of those three is in the return package. Plus, it’s the Yankees. They can go out and spend on a replacement this offseason or next offseason to replace the guy they moved in the deal anyway. Trade Torres to us and then they can go out and sign Semien next offseason while getting Hader now. If they want a guy, they can basically go get them in free agency.

Max Lazar has a ton of potential and is a guy I think could turn into a nice number 2 pitcher in the future for us. If he can keep his walk rate minuscule like he has, he could have a very bright future with us. He is still a couple years away, but will be an exciting player to watch in 2020 to see how he progresses.

I would imagine Shaw is going to be playing first for the Blue Jays with Vlad Jr. at third. They do have a young lefty hitter in Tellez at first base too. Maybe he will become the DH with Shaw getting the first base gig.

How about someone like Miguel Sano who is mostly a third baseman, but can play some first as well? He has 2 years of arbitration left and is projected to get around $6 million this year. He does strikeout a ton, but is a guy who will hit 35-40 homers for us if he plays 150 games. He is a below average fielder at third base, but will take his walks. It would be nice to have another big power bat to go with Yelich and Hiura. I don’t think he would cost too much for us to acquire. What do you think about a Sano acquisition?

Love the signing of Garcia! I think he’s going to be one of the most underrated signings of the entire offseason across MLB. I assume Yelich will move back over to left with Garcia seeing the majority of his time in right field and possibly making 10 or so starts in center during the year. If all goes well, Braun will probably start around 50 games at first and 60 games in left field. I could see Garcia being a very good 5 or 6 hole hitter for us while hitting .290 or so with 25-28 homers. He is going to be a very good addition to our lineup. Him turning down a guaranteed third year is interesting in that he feels he is still improving as a player. Plus, it gives him motivation to produce well to get a large future payday. Not that players aren’t going to do their best all the time, but him betting on himself is going to make him work harder and give him that little extra motivation to perform well knowing that he’s playing for a big future contract.

Love the signing of Garcia! I think he’s going to be one of the most underrated signings of the entire offseason across MLB. I assume Yelich will move back over to left with Garcia seeing the majority of his time in right field and possibly making 10 or so starts in center during the year. If all goes well, Braun will probably start around 50 games at first and 60 games in left field. I could see Garcia being a very good 5 or 6 hole hitter for us while hitting .290 or so with 25-28 homers. He is going to be a very good addition to our lineup. Him turning down a guaranteed third year is interesting in that he feels he is still improving as a player. Plus, it gives him motivation to produce well to get a large future payday. Not that players aren’t going to do their best all the time, but him betting on himself is going to make him work harder and give him that little extra motivation to perform well knowing that he’s playing for a big future contract.

Is that like... good?

Is that like... good?

I would also say it’s pretty folly to put lumbering guys like Shaw and Moose at 2B when they had little to no experience there either and it seemed to work out fine. Merrifield isn’t exactly a lumbering player. I think he could transition to third pretty flawlessly. He absolutely wouldn’t be any worse than someone like Andujar at third base, who is someone that some people would like to see the Brewers target in a Hader return to play third. He’s a well above average second baseman and above average left fielder and center fielder. We could go with Yelich, Cain, and Garcia in the outfield while having Braun and Merrifield being able to fill in out there, eliminating the need to carry a typical 4th outfielder. OF: Cain, Yelich, Garcia, Merrifield, and Braun IF: Hiura, Urias, Smoak, Sogard, (Braun and Merrifield again) C: Narvaez and Pina We would have 11 bats and have 2 open roster spots, one would go to a third base option that you would be comfortable with starting 100 games for you at third (someone like Flores or possibly Todd Frazier) who might start the season on the bench, but find themself in the lineup when Merrifield is moved to cover other positions. Merrifield would be a utility player that gets 150+ starts filling in all over the diamond for someone needing a day off and taking a spot permanently when injuries arise. Trade Gamel and Arcia or stash Arcia in AAA. The outfield is well covered, with first covered with Smoak and Braun. 2B covered with Hiura, Merrifield, and Sogard. SS would be covered by Urias, Sogard, and Merrifield as the emergency SS. 3B would be covered with Flores or Frazier and Merrifield filling in as needed. Merrifield would be the perfect addition to this team on a very team friendly deal that runs through the 2023 season.

I would also say it’s pretty folly to put lumbering guys like Shaw and Moose at 2B when they had little to no experience there either and it seemed to work out fine. Merrifield isn’t exactly a lumbering player. I think he could transition to third pretty flawlessly. He absolutely wouldn’t be any worse than someone like Andujar at third base, who is someone that some people would like to see the Brewers target in a Hader return to play third. He’s a well above average second baseman and above average left fielder and center fielder. We could go with Yelich, Cain, and Garcia in the outfield while having Braun and Merrifield being able to fill in out there, eliminating the need to carry a typical 4th outfielder. OF: Cain, Yelich, Garcia, Merrifield, and Braun IF: Hiura, Urias, Smoak, Sogard, (Braun and Merrifield again) C: Narvaez and Pina We would have 11 bats and have 2 open roster spots, one would go to a third base option that you would be comfortable with starting 100 games for you at third (someone like Flores or possibly Todd Frazier) who might start the season on the bench, but find themself in the lineup when Merrifield is moved to cover other positions. Merrifield would be a utility player that gets 150+ starts filling in all over the diamond for someone needing a day off and taking a spot permanently when injuries arise. Trade Gamel and Arcia or stash Arcia in AAA. The outfield is well covered, with first covered with Smoak and Braun. 2B covered with Hiura, Merrifield, and Sogard. SS would be covered by Urias, Sogard, and Merrifield as the emergency SS. 3B would be covered with Flores or Frazier and Merrifield filling in as needed. Merrifield would be the perfect addition to this team on a very team friendly deal that runs through the 2023 season.

Exactly this. He has good instincts, good hands, and solid range, but his arm is probably a little weaker than you would like from the position. But the Brewers will shift to put him in the best position to normally have his feet under him to make solid throws instead of him needing to make a bunch of miraculous plays at SS. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him be a slightly above average shortstop at season’s end. Plus, double play opportunities and balls in play are deceasing, reducing how many opportunities he will actually have the need to show off a cannon of an arm from the shortstop position. It’s going to be awesome having Urias and Hiura up the middle for the next half decade.

Exactly this. He has good instincts, good hands, and solid range, but his arm is probably a little weaker than you would like from the position. But the Brewers will shift to put him in the best position to normally have his feet under him to make solid throws instead of him needing to make a bunch of miraculous plays at SS. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him be a slightly above average shortstop at season’s end. Plus, double play opportunities and balls in play are deceasing, reducing how many opportunities he will actually have the need to show off a cannon of an arm from the shortstop position. It’s going to be awesome having Urias and Hiura up the middle for the next half decade.

Here is a possible third base option for us. He has a little experience at third with the Royals and we know how unconventional Stearns is. I’m not a huge fan of the trade simulator site, but I think this is pretty close to right. How would you feel about this trade? To get 4 years of Merrifield, it’s going to sting, but I think I would pull the trigger on this. Cain Merrifield Yelich Hiura Narvaez Garcia Braun Urias P

Here is a possible third base option for us. He has a little experience at third with the Royals and we know how unconventional Stearns is. I’m not a huge fan of the trade simulator site, but I think this is pretty close to right. How would you feel about this trade? To get 4 years of Merrifield, it’s going to sting, but I think I would pull the trigger on this. Cain Merrifield Yelich Hiura Narvaez Garcia Braun Urias P

Updated Player List Position Players Braun $14 million ($3 million deferred) Cain $15 million ($1 million deferred) Yelich $12.5 million Garcia $7.5 million Hiura $500K Arcia $2.2 million Urias $500K Pina $1.8 million Gamel $1.4 million Narvaez (Arb. $2.9 million) Sogard $4.5 million Smoak $4 million Healy $250K+ Total $67.05 million Rotation Woodruff $500K B. Anderson $5 million Houser $500K Lauer $500K Lindblom $3 million Total $9.5 million Bullpen Hader $5 million Knebel (Arb. $5.2 million) Claudio $1.8 million Suter $1 million Peralta $500K Feyereisen $500K Wahl $500K D. Williams $500K Total $15 million Other Options (not included on payroll list) D. Guerra $500K Faria $500K Burnes $500K Buyouts/Deferred Payments Thames $1 million Moustakas $3 million Grandal $2.25 million Garza $2 million Total $8.25 million $67.05 + $9.5 + $15 + $8.25 = $99.8 Million Current Payroll About $28 million below last year’s payroll

Updated Player List Position Players Braun $14 million ($3 million deferred) Cain $15 million ($1 million deferred) Yelich $12.5 million Garcia $7.5 million Hiura $500K Arcia $2.2 million Urias $500K Pina $1.8 million Gamel $1.4 million Narvaez (Arb. $2.9 million) Sogard $4.5 million Smoak $4 million Healy $250K+ Total $67.05 million Rotation Woodruff $500K B. Anderson $5 million Houser $500K Lauer $500K Lindblom $3 million Total $9.5 million Bullpen Hader $5 million Knebel (Arb. $5.2 million) Claudio $1.8 million Suter $1 million Peralta $500K Feyereisen $500K Wahl $500K D. Williams $500K Total $15 million Other Options (not included on payroll list) D. Guerra $500K Faria $500K Burnes $500K Buyouts/Deferred Payments Thames $1 million Moustakas $3 million Grandal $2.25 million Garza $2 million Total $8.25 million $67.05 + $9.5 + $15 + $8.25 = $99.8 Million Current Payroll About $28 million below last year’s payroll

Does that mean he totals at $800k for 175 IP? Or do those add up, so he'd get an additional $2m for 175 IP? They add up and he will get $2 million for 175 innings pitched.

Does that mean he totals at $800k for 175 IP? Or do those add up, so he'd get an additional $2m for 175 IP? They add up and he will get $2 million for 175 innings pitched.

I'd be most irritated by the inclusion of File as far as what MKE sends out. I've lost hope for Ray but I'd still expect MKE to hold him on the 40 until he's out of options. There's zero reason to give him away and at this point his going price can't be much better than giving him away. As stated above, what is Seattle paying of that Seager contract? 75%? Seager is fine but he's a negative value contract. You don't give up prospects to take on junk deals. People tossing in the middle of the pack options for 3b. Don't forget Wilmer Flores. Flores is my top choice for third base. Get him and have him in the 6 or 7 hole everyday and I’ll feel very good about our everyday lineup. You could do a lot worse than having guys like Flores, Braun, and Smoak in the 6 or 7 hole.

Awesome article, thank you! Yes he can! And Castellanos can sign with us and go to shortstop!

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/josh-donaldson-518626?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb Statcast has him in the top 5 or 10 in Barrel% Exit velo BB% it's crazy to call out regression in 3-4 years as a reason to not sign a 4 yr deal. Can he be the player he was last season w/o regression? Acknowledging our window with Yelich, who cares on year 4? When you get a beast at the plate the level of Donaldson. You want to argue about Shaw? Nothing in Shaw's history in statcast was top 20 or borderline elite. So maybe at the regression Donaldson is Best 2 years of Shaw with Milw. (I know not mentioned Shaw stopping that argument before it starts) I just believe there isn't enough money to sign him now. They would need like a 20/27/27\25 type deal Not sure why Shaw is being mentioned here? And I never thought he was an elite bat. My point before was that Shaw struggled mightily last year and the shift at least had a part to do with it. Hearing that Smoak seemed to hit into the shift frequently and seeing his average drop the last three years as shifting increased (.270 down to .242, down to .208 (!) last year) is definitely cause for concern. I’m skeptical of the signing and would prefer other guys, but I’m not going to make a big issue about it and drag this place down like some people have done lately. It’s just a singular opinion based off of one signing. About Donaldson, I feel that he’s going to fall off a cliff very quickly production wise and be a mediocre player by year 3. That’s just my opinion and nothing else. Would he be productive the first couple years? Most likely yes. But going into a deal already expecting his production to decrease after only a year or two isn’t something I would do. Obviously I don’t help with the decisions, but giving a 34 year old such a large contract when he could fall off at any point is quite a large risk. One that I hope the Brewers don’t take. Because if he is anything other than all-star caliber if we are giving him $25-$27 million per year for 4 years, it would be hard to field a competitive team around him. Especially with a possible Cain regression to go along with that. Could it work out? Absolutely. But could they both regress/continue to regress and totally ruin our ability to field a competitive team for 2-3 years as well? Also yes. I just don’t want to go down that route with Donaldson. Sign Castellanos who doesn’t turn 28 until right before the season. He’s a guy you give a large contract to who will be cheaper while also having the ability to break out more than he already has. He’s just entering his prime while the other is on the down swing.

I’ve always been a big Clevinger fan. If we can somehow get a deal done without including Hader, Hiura, or Urias, I would be all for it.

Brewers are now up to $100 million. Enough of the slashing payroll talk. Yes, maybe it’ll end up being $10 million less than last year. Maybe that means next season it’ll be $135-$140 million if the right deals present itself. It’s a nice free agent class next offseason and a lot of teams are spending big this offseason. Can’t spend big then if you throw $25+ million at Donaldson now. Stearns may have decided to take a back seat a little bit this offseason, get young talent instead of overspending, see who sticks, and go out and spend more next offseason when other teams are capped already. If you’ve noticed, we’ve signed a ton of one year deals and have Braun’s money coming off the books after this year. We will have another offseason of $40+ million to spend next offseason. But to think it’s some major slashing is completely wrong. There will be mid season moves, trades, bringing guys up from the minors, things like that. At the least, it’ll be in the $110-$115 million range even if they do nothing else this offseason.

I remember when people were talking about how unlucky Shaw was in 2018 because he was hitting the ball hard, but right at the defenders based on his babip. Shaw’s babip was so low in 2018 (.242) that people thought he was going to explode in 2019... He followed that up by having a babip of .216. The Brewers obviously didn’t think it was him being “unlucky”. They probably thought he couldn’t adapt as a hitter to avoid hitting into the shift. Not sure on Smoak as the hitter, but is it possible that his “unluckiness” is just him hitting it right into the shift like Shaw? Leading people to believe he’s a bounce back candidate, but in reality he just hasn’t adapted to hitting away from the shift? I’m honestly curious and don’t know much about Smoak, but it’ll be interesting to know if he’s a true spray hitter and was unlucky or is essentially a clone of Shaw that shows that he’s “unlucky”, but it’s because of his inability to go the other way effectively.