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Ron Robinsons Beard

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Everything posted by Ron Robinsons Beard

  1. Ron Robinsons Beard
    If we aren't going to consider signing a guy because he's a stickler for the "unwritten rules", wow. Just wow.
  2. Ron Robinsons Beard
    No...it's not. It is. Braun has 10/5 rights. He won’t go to a rebuilding club. Useless.
  3. Ron Robinsons Beard
    I like this deal. Wahl profiles as a flame-throwing late-inning reliever, while Hill is yet another high-upside college arm. Valerio is a fun flyer as well. I think they did very well for a guy many felt had no trade value. I wonder if this opens the door to a potential Curtis Granderson reunion?
  4. Ron Robinsons Beard
    If he's truly the Packers' #1 choice, options = leverage
  5. Ron Robinsons Beard
    This type of roster management makes me appreciate David Stearns. I know we all want to see the Brewers fill their holes, and some are getting impatient, but the moves that the Mariners have made so far are just ... weird.
  6. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Yes, I know. I'm just saying the D-Backs would do it if it somehow worked (to completely contradict your point that we shouldn't even talk about it haha). I think they'd be happy to rid themselves of that contract and get anything of value back in return. Thames would definitely be a tradable asset in the last year of his deal, and I would think that if he played 1B fulltime for Arizona, he'd put up numbers good enough to make him a valuable trade commodity at the deadline. I still think the only team that Braun would maybe accept a trade to, though, is the Dodgers. That would be one hell of a weird, convoluted three-way deal. But the Dodgers did just shed Kemp's and Puig's salaries, and they have a theoretical hole in the corner OF .... (dang it, now you have me thinking about it! )
  7. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Man, you just bummed me out... All true though, which is pretty scary. We haven't done a thing yet to address the weaknesses that you mention. We caught lightning in a bottle with Miley and Chacin last year, can that even happen again? Wade Miley only made 16 starts and threw 80 innings for the Brewers, while missing large chunks of the year in a couple DL stints. He was solid when he was out there, but it's still a pretty small sample. Pus, there's still a strong possibility that the Brewers' replacement for Wade Miley will be .... Wade Miley. Only healthy for a longer stretch this time. He seemed to enjoy his time with the Brewers last year, and there hasn't been much out there regarding interest in him. I kind of get the feeling that the Brewers are going to make an offer to Kuechel, and if that doesn't work out, Miley is the fallback to get a lefty in the rotation.
  8. Ron Robinsons Beard
    It's not as easy as Dozier or Moustakas, though. They are two different types of hitters who play different positions. Dozier, while he has good power, is a solid contact, OBP guy who doesn't K much. He's a solid fit in the #2 hole between Cain and Yelich. Moose is a good power, low OBP guy who Ks more, and likely slots in the #5 or 6 spot below Aguilar and Shaw. He's a middle of the order power bat. Plus, defensively if you sign Moose you are playing him at 3B while shifting Shaw to 2B fulltime. While the Brewers proved they could win that way, I think most would agree that Shaw's best defensive position is 3B. Dozier is a former Gold Glover and is still a very solid defender at 2B. Defensively a Shaw/Arcia/Dozier/Aguilar alignment would likely be much more sound than a Moustakas/Arcia/Shaw/Arcia alignment. That said, I enjoyed Moose's time in Milwaukee, and if he continues to see a cold market, and depending on where guys like Dozier, LeMahieu, Lowrie and Dietrich end up going, I wouldn't be opposed to a reunion. It would make the lineup a little lefty-heavy, though, especially if Gamel is going to see regular time in RF. For it to work, it means that Braun will need to stay healthy and continue to mash lefties, while hoping Aguilar's first half last season wasn't a fluke, Arcia hits like he did in September and the playoffs, and they get more offense from the catcher position.
  9. Ron Robinsons Beard
    It has been pretty widely reported that Dozier was dealing with a bad bone bruise on his knee that hampered him most of the year. He isn't exactly young, but he isn't so old that a rebound cannot be expected.
  10. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Again, the chance that Braun would approve a trade to a rebuilding club is less than 0%. It is probably useless to even debate it as a hypothetical.
  11. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Pretty much every guy who posters were worried would regress from their solid 2017 numbers did exactly that - Arcia, Shaw, Santana, Pina, Sogard, Davies, Knebel and Anderson. The team was missing it's #1 pitcher, Nelson, all season. The hope that Villar would rebound from his poor 2017 and solidify 2B failed miserably. This team still managed to win 10 more games than they did in 2017. Some of the biggest arguments here during the last offseason revolved around whether the Brewers were actual contenders, or if 2017 was smoke and mirrors, and they were looking at a poor season in 2018. As it turned out, 2017 was decidedly NOT smoke and mirrors. We have a legit World Series contender who is not losing many consequential pieces and has a core of players (other than Braun) who are arguably in their physical prime. Last year I disagreed with the pessimism, but I could at least understand it. I can't this year.
  12. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Yep. Too many third down calls were plays designed for big yardage chunks instead of just getting the first down. I'm all for taking the occasional shot on third and short, but you can't make a living off it like the Packers tried to do this year. Man, some of the twitter feeds I follow show our short third-down plays and the routes the WR's are running, wow. It is just simply amazing at times. Frustrating because you don't need to be an NFL coach or mind to realize they are not high percentage makes. Now I don't know where that falls on (MM, Philbin, Rodgers) but it has to change next season to be more consistent. Since when aren't 30-yard flag patterns on 3rd and 2 a high-percentage play?
  13. Ron Robinsons Beard
    may block trade to any club after earning 10-and-5 rights 5/14/17
  14. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Makes me wonder if there might be a "wink nod" deal already in place between McDaniels and the Packers. I know many higher ups see McDanials to the Packers as pretty much a foregone conclusion. I think it’s more of he doesn’t want to leave New England unless it’s for another highly successful/high class organization. Coaching Cincinnati isn’t as appealing as being the head coach of arguably the most historic franchise in the game. True. But the pressure to win in GB, especially with Rodgers' limited time left, is going to be greater. To play devil's advocate, other than Joe Philbin, the Packers have only had two coaches in their history who had previous pro head coaching experience. Ray Rhodes (1999) and Forrest Gregg (1984-87) did not work out well.
  15. Ron Robinsons Beard
    There is no way Braun would accept a deal to the DBacks. None.
  16. Ron Robinsons Beard
    It does kinda make the idea of paying Soria $10 million seem pretty far fetched, though. If Robertson wasn't the best reliever on the market, he's right up there with Kimbrel.
  17. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Makes me wonder if there might be a "wink nod" deal already in place between McDaniels and the Packers. I know many higher ups see McDanials to the Packers as pretty much a foregone conclusion.
  18. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Probably needs to pull what Yelich did and demand a trade. Then maybe the Marlins would lower their obnoxious demands. Right now, at least in their heads, they have the leverage. That leverage is slowly trickling away, though, as several teams have passed by Realmuto and went a different direction to fill catching needs. Obviously the Brewers are not one of those teams, which leads me to believe that they are perhaps lying in the weeds.
  19. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Might not be a bad idea to add an option to that - just in case someone gets hurt. Or, you know, the "Chosen One" turns out to be a false prophet.
  20. Ron Robinsons Beard
    I get that. But a rise in ERA of 1.18 runs per 9? For a 31-year old? Nope. Also, Chase Anderson (age 31) followed up his breakout 2017 with a 2018 that wasn't as good, but still saw a very respectable 3.93 ERA. But yeah, he'll put up an ERA of 5 this year. I get that Anderson will never be a world-beater, but he is a respectable mid-rotation starter, not a replaceable 5-ERA guy. But you look at the Cubs, and the projections indicate that Quintana (age 30) is going to get better, while Hamels (age 35) will continue to pitch like a #2, as if his trainwreck 1st half with the Rangers last year isn't even a blip on the radar. Also, Darvish, coming off an ok 2017 and a lost 2018 (and at 32 years old), is suddenly going to be Darvish again. At least they finally have Lester, at age 35, slowing down. Also, Fangraphs, Streamer ... whatever. If Fangraphs hosts it, they own it.
  21. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Fangraphs predicts every Brewers starter to have an ERA in the high 4s. Plus pretty much every offensive performer regressing. That, my friends, is proof enough that it is far from reliable. In fact, looking at the level of regression that they point to several Brewers players having even leads me to believe that there is an anti-Brewer bias. Case in point ... Chacin put up a very solid season for the Padres in 2017, followed by a terrific season with the Brewers last year, in a park tougher to pitch in and in the midst of a nerve-wracking pennant chase. Fangraphs has his ERA projection jumping by more than a full run. I am struggling to understand why.
  22. Ron Robinsons Beard
    It would be hoping for a Dozier rebound, but he's always been known as a great clubhouse guy and would be a solid fit there with the Brewers. He's not exactly versatile, though. I think I would like an infield of Shaw/Arcia/Dozier/Aguilar better than Moose/Arcia/Shaw/Aguilar. I doubt Dozier can recapture his terrific 2017 numbers, but he isn't super old (turning 32 on May 15), and if you could get a .240-.250 average, .330 OBP and 20 HRs, that's a major improvement. Also, a career K percentage of roughly 22% indicates that he puts the ball in play. In the Brewers' lineup he'd be more a table setter instead of a run producer, so that may theoretically raise that average and OBP a touch.
  23. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Fangraphs' 2018 brewers record projection, after cain and yelich were added - 79 wins. Actual result - 95 wins in 162 games Fangraphs' 2017 brewers record projection - 73 wins. Actual result - 86 wins. Based on their recent track record, a 77 win projection means the crew may threaten 100 w's without adding anyone else Fangraphs may have its value, but this proves that it's record prediction algorythm is broken.
  24. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Vegas odds are less reliable/accurate than projection systems from Fangraphs, 538, BR, etc. Vegas prices things to get equal action on both sides and adjusts odds to limit exposure, not necessarily project what is most likely to happen. In this case, Vegas is WAY more right than Fangraphs. That Fangraphs projection is crap. I don't care how they justify it. It's still crap.
  25. Ron Robinsons Beard
    I personally think it’s naive to think that one coach would make that much of a difference on a professional athlete. The Brewers are interested because they think his value could outweigh the cost. Derek Johnson has nothing to do with that. If the Brewers thought the way you do, they would have no interest in Gray. That doesn’t seem to be the case.
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