Ron Robinsons Beard
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Everything posted by Ron Robinsons Beard
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Granted we really have no idea how other major league teams rank guys like Supak and Pennington, but considering they have been dealt in the last couple years in very minor deals, it would stand to reason that neither is held in very high regard. And they haven't necessarily done much in their time in the Brewer system to raise their prospect status. Also, this would be the ultimate "sell low" on Ortiz, as he fought injury and ineffectiveness at AA last year. If the Rays accepted this deal, I wouldn't wait until the ink was dry to fax it to the MLB offices. But there is absolutely no way they'd accept it. If Archer is coming this way, top prospects are going back. Top prospects that had great seasons last year. I'm going to stick with my prediction of Santana, Burnes, Peralta and Gatewood. If Burnes stays, we are adding Hiura+.
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I absolutely will not trade Burnes for Archer. Burnes should be as untouchable as Hader. According to HH, Stearns had already said no to the Rays regarding Burnes, because he knows this would make it a really awful trade for the Brewers. It's much better to walk away than make an awful trade. If the Brewers acquire Archer, and Burnes is still Brewers' property, I would be absolutely shocked. If I'm the Rays, I'm demanding him in a deal. To me, Burnes's upside is Chris Archer. But that upside won't be there in theory for another 2-3 years. That's missing a lot of the window. I think if Archer is going to be a Brewer, Burnes is long gone.
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Sure, it works from our end. But we have absolutely no idea how the Indians value Santana, or what kind of value the Brewers place on Salazar. And if HH's speculation is right, and teams are placing a premium on solid pitching, then it is likely the Brewers would need to add a high-ranking prospect to Santana to acquire Salazar alone, let alone Salazar and Kipnis. Perhaps if they take on all of Kipnis's salary, that prospect wouldn't be as high, but I'm still guessing it would be something like Santana and Peralta/Ortiz for Salazar, or Santana and Diplan for Salazar/Kipnis, with the Brewers taking on most if not all of Kipnis's salary. The cost for solid pitching is otherworldly right now.
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I think that move is palatable if they can turn around and deal Santana for a package of prospects that includes one high-end guy.
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Well, if Archer and Darvish or Arietta are acquired, in theory you don't need a lot for the next 2-3 years, barring injury. Archer and Darvish/Arietta are locked in for at least 4 years. Anderson is locked in for 4 years. Nelson is locked in for 3. Davies is locked in for 4. Chacis is locked in for 3. Woodruff for 5. That is a lot of long-term pitching depth. Also, Burnes was drafted in 2016, so saying that a pitcher cannot make a quick rise through the system would be wrong. The Brewers have at least half a dozen recently drafted college arms or trade acquisitions in their early 20s that could theoretically put it together and make the jump.
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You continue to develop the pitchers you have. Woodruff and Bubba Derby are still around. Ortiz is still very highly thought of. In a couple years, pitchers like Diplan, Supak, Ponce, Pennington, Webb, Zach Brown, Drake Owenby, Jon Perrin and Herrera should be in the upper levels. Not to mention the highly talented guys who have fallen because of injury or other reasons, such as Nate Kirby, Phil Bickford, Taylor Williams, Kodi Medeiros and Adrian Houser. Then there's the young kids like Caden Lemons, Brendan Murphy, Bowden Francis, Jayson Rose, Alec Bettinger and Max Lazar. Basically, you need to hit on 3-4 of those guys to continue to have strong pitching prospects at the minor league level. The pitching cupboard is FAR from bare.
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Ponce profiles as "maybe" a #4-5 starter, and Broxton, Hernan and Aguilar are spare parts. There is absolutely no way that gets done. If the deal happens, it's going to be Santana and a big sting to our minor league Top 10. If Santana isn't included, it's going to be a HUGE sting to the Top 10.
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Crazy thought, but if both Phillips and Santana are sent out via trade, what about an economical deal with John Jay or even, *gasp*, a Carlos Gomez reunion? Gomez is still strong defensively, and could play all three positions.
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The Rays are not going to want quantity over quality for Archer, so you people tossing out spare parts deals like Broxton, Aguilar, Perez, Villar and other lower-level minor leaguers for Archer are way, way off. If he is acquired, it's going to sting. Last night I speculated Santana, Burnes and Peralta for Archer, and I think that's going to be close to what it ends up being. The Brewers may throw in another high-upside lower-level minor leaguer like Lutz, but I highly, highly doubt its going to be Phillips. I think Stearns LOVES Phillips, and it wouldn't surprise me if he was the name holding up this deal. He profiles as a potential gold glove RF, and when grouped with Cain and Yelich, gives the team what is most likely the best defensive outfield in their history. Plus he is only 23 years old, and still maturing as a hitter. With the defensive improvements they made in Yelich and Cain, it makes no sense to trot Santana or Braun out to RF every day. I think Phillips is the odds-on favorite to be a near every-day RF, and I highly doubt he's on the trading block. Of course, stranger things have happened.
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Its a tough comparison, because if Santana is in the deal, it throws the valuation out of whack. Santana has a different value as an MLB player with proven success. Cease and Burnes are very comparable. Rose and Flete are two fliers. I dunno ... maybe Dallas Carrol or Chad McClanahan. Jake Gatewood also seems like a Tampa bay-type player, but his value is high than a typical flyer.
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To me, that means Hader and Hiura are off the table in a deal. I don't see how Hader could ever be on the table. If they are looking to compete, he is a KEY component. Contending teams rarely trade key ML pieces. Unless Doug Melvin is their GM.
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I'll go with Santana, Burnes and Peralta. I think they hang onto Woodruff as rotation insurance. I imagine the original deal was Santana, Ortiz and Peralta, or something like that, and Tampa pulled Ortiz out and asked for Burnes, which caused Stearns to balk. I think it eventually gets done, though.
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I can't see the team trading for a high-end starter without giving up Burnes. Especially if other teams now view him as the team's #1 prospect. It will probably cost multiple arms, and I imagine Peralta is probably 2nd. Ortiz is a nice piece, but this is a "What have you done for me lately?" league, and his down year and injury troubles hurt his value. Hopefully he rebounds this year. But yeah, if a trade happens, multiple top arms are going. If it doesn't happen, I'll be shocked.
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If that is the case, I wonder if Arietta becomes a target? I like him better than Cobb or Lynn, although he's going to cost more.
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Has it tho? viewtopic.php?f=82&t=6641 Nearly 15 years! Man that is brutal. I do wonder if that original poster is now here again under a new name. The spelling and punctuation fits the bill of several posts around here.
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Not really under my skin. Just pointing out the wishy-washiness. And it's hard to miss your posts. And any high end starter is going to cost young arms.
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Just imagine if he could be a battery with PALMSO!!! Missed opportunities Wasn’t it PALSMO? I’d have to look. Could have been. That was more than a decade ago. Unfortunately the legend has faded with time.
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If they get a free agent, it's almost a guarantee that the 2nd arm is going to come via trade. Which is going to be expensive prospect-wise, likely costing at least one of our top young arms, if not multiple. You said a couple days ago you were against doing that for Archer. Are you for or against a trade, because you are kind of "candle in the wind"-ing it right now.
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Well they wouldn't be meeting on him if they didn't stand a chance of landing him. That's promising.
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Just imagine if he could be a battery with PALMSO!!! Missed opportunities
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HH had posted earlier today that the team's brass was meeting today, but that his friend wasn't involved. So there is a chance there isn't an update to be had.
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Solid post. You laid it all out there. You've also never demanded that anyone believe you. I certainly understand being skeptical, especially when things don't happen as quickly as we want them to. But you are right ... Brewer fans are civil, and we all want the same thing - for the team to have success at the big league level (well, except the "scorched earth" guys around here). I guess the way I look at it, no one is making anyone read or believe your posts. I think your track record is speaking for itself this offseason, though. Please, if you have any new info from the meeting today, a few tidbits would be fun.
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Yep, no one was really talking about Burnes, and Harrison was coming off a very disappointing and injury-marred year. I fully expect several players to step up and fill the void left by the departure of Brinson, Harrison, Diaz and Yamamoto. I think Dubon rockets up lists this year, and Ray and Grisham are going to step up and make themselves prime trade chips. A guy like Jevon Ward could very well be the next Brinson or Harrison too. There are a ton of pitchers that stand a good chance as well.
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No it wasn't HH admitted in one of the threads it was the Yelich trade, that was the first domino to fall the first domino was a supposed "AL team" that is besides the point though I welcome HH, more beneficial than any beat writer the last week + Oh that's right ... I think he alluded to that deal falling through. Speculated that it was with the Yankees for Ellsbury, with the Brewers grabbing additional high-end prospects and salary relief. If that was the deal, I think I'm glad it didn't happen. I kind of like seeing that Ellsbury contract hanging around their fanbase's neck like an albatross
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I'm on this train too. This whole thing feels like it's about to burst. One major FA signing and it feels like stuff is going to happen left and right. I mean, it has to, right? These big name guys want to be on a team before spring training starts. Plus, don't put it past egomaniacal GMs and agents to want to take some of the spotlight off of the NFL during Super Bowl weekend.
