coolhandluke121

Have you ever tried to play basketball at 5% body fat, and also at 15%? I have, and it makes a colossal difference. Literally the difference between being the best player on the court and the worst. And even now at over 15%, people say they can hardly see the difference. Having hot shooting early in the season doesn't mean you're not out of shape. After Khris returned from his hamstring issue, he had his best shooting streak ever. It took a few weeks for his lack of conditioning and muscle tone (excusable under those circumstances) to wear him down and turn him into a shell of himself, and that's when his numbers took a nosedive. More importantly, if he was able to shoot the ball well despite being out of shape, it's because he was conserving energy on defense so he could still get his numbers. He's gone from one of the best defensive wings in the league to one of the most inconsistent since getting his first big contract.

He had issues with defense and conditioning too. He also was talented enough on offense to at least be great on that side of the ball without great conditioning, which Khris is not. Most importantly, he could have been better with better conditioning and defensive effort. Due to his superior talent (not to mention the Ubuntu Celtics literally being one of the greatest teams of all time), I guess he didn't really need to be to be arguably the #2 guy on a contender. Khris categorically does.

YES. It's annoying people continually skip over this fact. His tear was on the *opposite* side of the shoulder pitchers always tear and struggle to come back from. Nelson is clearly on his way back to where he was. There has been zero evidence suggesting otherwise. The only question is whether he'll be ready to throw 90-100 pitches opening day or if it'll take a little longer to do so. This is not at all conclusive IMO. Just because it's not the part of his labrum that pitchers normally tear doesn't mean that it won't have a major detrimental effect on a pitcher who does tear it. Shoulders are complicated and unstable. Besides, the effect of surgery on creating scar tissue and changing proprioception could prove critical.

Athletes do that all the time. They need to believe it and talk themselves into it just as much as some fans do. It would probably be foolish to bet on him being really good again.

Defense is a much better indicator of conditioning and effort than true shooting %, and that's not even debatable. I guarantee you his body fat % has gone up too, and no, that's not the same as "filling out". It's not muscle. Not everyone can see it, and the difference between 10% and 15% is hardly noticeable on a guy with his frame wearing baggy clothes, but it's there, plain as day. ETA: I'll never understand how you can keep calling it a myth and confirmation bias. I can see literally see it right before my eyes. What's so hard to understand about that? It would be like if I saw someone steal a candy bar and you said it's just confirmation bias; I believe he stole it, and that's why I say I saw it.

I don't know how much you watched him when he was first breaking out, but he was a great intangibles guy. His perimeter defense was some of the best in the league, and he could guard all wings and many pf's. His switching and rotation was a huge weapon for the team when they surprised everyone and made the playoffs in Kidd's first year as coach. He got his offense in the flow and never dominated the ball. 34% of his fga's were 3's and he shot a career high 41% on them. Then he got his contract and promptly showed up to camp out of shape despite being only 23. He spent a few months playing lazy isoball and wrecking the team's flow before Kidd finally benched him for lack of effort a few months into the season, which has become an annual thing at this point. We suffered through a few years of growing pains while he concentrated on adding a 90's style isoball, 2-pointer heavy approach to offense while neglecting all the defensive effort that made him a very good player in the first place. He did improve his play-making a little, but still doesn't have the energy and spring in his step to follow through on his attempts to create shots. I believe if he was in shape, he could be like Paul Pierce - not quite as good on offense, but better on defense. But at his current level of effort, he's not helping much, and they'd be better off with a guy like Hield who knows his role and doesn't try to be Kobe.

Wow, can you imagine what would happen if he did "get it together"? He's make the double-secret All-Star team, instead of just the regular All-Star team. His effort is worse than it's ever been, he's not fitting in to the team concept on offense, and there is such a thing as empty stats, but I'm not going to waste too much time arguing with someone who thinks the Bucks have had "a lot of talent" at point guard between Cassell and Bledsoe. His all-star berth was a nod to the Bucks' record and the fact that he was close to being an all-star for years. Awards like that are often based on many years of performance, but Bledsoe has been far better this year. Besides, the problem is not that he's bad per se. It's that he should and could be better than guys like Klay Thompson, Rip Hamilton, and Buddy Hield, but he can't be bothered to stay in shape and play hard on a consistent basis. But why address the substance of my post when you can just pretend I said he's a bad player?

It's almost like Middleton really is out of shape or something. Honestly will never understand how anyone can not see his slouching and the extra layer of fat on his thin frame. He's been doing this every year since he got his $70m deal, and it takes him longer and longer to play his way into shape each year. This is looking like the year where he never gets it together. I think his nickname should be Droop Doggie Dogg.

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At which point you are deep into fantasyland. It's very unlikely, but maybe the Royals want to save some money and commit to a long-term rebuild. "Organizational depth" can mean a wide range of prospect quality, and they might be able to cobble something together. More importantly, I mostly meant that it would make more sense from the Brewers' perspective than trading away Pina.

Honestly I think the only trade that makes some sense would involve the Brewers acquiring Perez in exchange for some "organizational depth" prospects, in anticipation of Grandal leaving next year.

If anything, I think this makes it more likely that they keep the team together. Bledsoe's salary next season is now going to be about $7m less than his cap hold would have been, and that's a lot of breathing room under the luxury tax line. This also signals that they're probably prioritizing retention, as opposed to decimating their supporting cast around Giannis in a foolhardy "grass-is-greener" pursuit of another superstar. The Bucks' intentions are at least as crucial as any player's intentions when it comes to predicting how the off season plays out. This could also be seen as the first domino. If Mirotic, Bledsoe, and Middleton all go to unrestricted free agency, any one of them could have doubts about resigning just because they can't be sure the other two will resign as well. Bledsoe committing takes one ball out of the air, making it a lot easier to juggle the other two. We know players love to play for a contender and are often willing to make some personal sacrifices to do so. With Bledsoe officially on board, the other free agents can be a little more confident they'd be returning to a contender if they decide to accept a reasonable offer instead of maximizing every dollar they can get by working free agency for all it's worth, regardless of destination. Middleton, when he made the all-star team, unequivocally said he wants to stay. The reason there's uncertainty there is because he has a player option and can't sign an extension for fair market value under the circumstances. It's just a nuance of the CBA that requires him to go all the way to unrestricted free agency to get a fair raise (let alone an exorbitant one). The questions about fit are legitimate. In particular he doesn't always like to play at the tempo the Bucks like and hasn't embraced a role shooting open 3's off the ball, preferring to iso against his defender with the offense revolving around him on those possessions. But they should make a competitive offer; it's a risk they have to take. He's not old or anything, and his game doesn't depend on athleticism. He may be a bad contract, but I don't think he'd be a terrible one, and you can always just trade him for a player with a bad contract who fits better. More importantly, you can't just spend the money on someone else. You have the right to go way over the cap to keep him, and you lose that right if you don't keep him. It would be foolish to be stubborn about money and lose talent for nothing that way. Mirotic and Lopez are the biggest question marks to me. Mirotic plays the same position as Giannis and could eventually be an all-star. How do you sell him on staying if he can make significantly more and be a 35 mpg starter elsewhere? Lopez is in a similar situation, as he's the nominal starter but might regularly lose minutes to guys like Mirotic, if he stays, and eventually Wilson, who are better fits for the modern NBA. And the Bucks aren't allowed to pay him more than the MLE (if that). Their decisions probably depend on each other as much as they do on the market.

2-way players are severely undervalued. I think this is a great deal. It probably nixes any notion of signing an outside free agent, but that was pie in the sky anyway. No way they were going to renounce their free agent rights to Mirotic, Bledsoe, and Khris for a slim chance at Durant/Kawhi. This also makes it easier to keep the team together, because his starting salary is about $7m lower than his cap hold (a salary cap placeholder to keep his free agent rights) would have been. That means they may be able to retain Brogdon, Mirotic, and Middleton without losing their right to use the Mid-level Exception salary slot on Lopez or his replacement. They would have been cutting it close without a move like this. Obviously Bledsoe's agent had no say in this, because it's very atypical of him. Bledsoe clearly wanted to stay.

Wow. That's a pretty big tier. I'm sure a lot of people who aren't Brewer fans also have him one tier below those guys though.

Yeah, Robbie Ray is the one guy on there who seems like the borderline-premium acquisition that Stearns and company save good offers for. Barring that, they will be bargain shopping as usual. I'm not convinced that the D-Backs are going to be terrible though. Keuchel and Grandal both rejected qualifying offers, so the Brewers would forfeit their 4th pick in the draft for Keuchel, having already forfeited their 3rd pick for Grandal. I'm pretty sure the Round A pick they gave up for Claudio was immune from being forfeited anyway, meaning their 3rd-round pick is the pick they lose even though it was technically their 4th pick before the Claudio trade. Not sure how I feel about Keuchel in the grand scheme of things, but I'd be happy in the short-term if they got him at a reasonable price.

This is just punishing Gomez for playing with the Brewers when he was young. Cameron had some struggles at the plate before hitting his stride too, but it was for another team. Gomez's best year with the Brewers was far better than Cameron's. Even if that was his only year with the crew, I'd have him ahead of Cameron. I think he led the NL in WAR from the middle of 2013 to the middle of 2014. In any case, it's a moot point assuming Cain has at least one more good year, which I think he will. I'm not sure how to rate Thomas's longevity against the other 3 because I suspect he was overrated for HR's and RBI's while sporting a mediocre OBP and playing so-so defense at best. I have Cooper ahead of Prince. I don't think analytics had caught up to the damage Prince's defense did to the infield because throwing errors went on everyone else's rap sheet even though his lack of reach was the issue in many cases. He also had that annoying thing where he didn't want guys on base to steal when he was batting, and he was vocal about not liking the way Macha wanted them to play more disciplined baseball even though they clearly needed it. I think he was a bad leader despite his reputation for leading the locker room. To me, that's more about being the alpha male than actually being a good leader. His foolish decision to try to get an out at home against the Cardinals in a 2011 game arguably cost them a trip to the world series, as the Cardinals went on to score several more runs in that inning and win in extra innings and eventually won the wild card berth by one game. That still sticks in my craw as being just one of many examples of the way they underachieved during that era. Molitor at 2B and Cirillo at 3B seems like the obvious plan to me. I'll put Yelich in somewhere by default. Just can't see a guy like Jenkins, Oglivie, Lezcano, Vaughn, or Hart an all-time team. If you're putting guys like them in there, you should probably just pretend you've never thought about it and hope nobody asks.

Cubs - 92 Brewers - 89 Cardinals - 83 Pirates - 74 Reds - 72 The NL has even more parity and depth than last year, and the East arguably improved even more than the Central. There are few easy games, and records are going to converge towards .500 a lot. Only Miami is truly worthy of a last-place finish in a normal division and a normal year. The Giants and Diamondbacks are arguably the next worst teams, which is crazy to me. The NL may once again not have any gaudy records like the AL, but it's gonna be a gauntlet. I expect some regression from Yelich and Cain as well as the starting staff, but mostly this is just a reflection of the difficult schedule in the NL. I think 89 wins gets a wild card game this year.

I'm visiting friends in San Diego right now. Has nothing to do with Machado but it is a nice town. Still think it had to be his last choice apart from money though. It would be like a basketball player having to sign with the Suns because nobody else really wants him. Says a lot about your image when that's your best option. Just desserts if you will. I agree with the people suggesting this is good because it makes the west tougher without adding another true playoff threat. Also think Machado becomes a lazy Matt Kemp type who is a regrettable acquisition almost immediately after getting his payday.

I think there's some confirmation bias at work here. Just playing the number of minutes he plays in games would get him in decent shape not to mention practice time. Why would I have a bias to confirm in the first place? Why would I just invent this bias against him and not against tons of other players? I had to match my interpretation to what I saw and not the other way around. I have nothing against him and I defended his skills vociferously on realgm for years. I compare him to Pierce when everyone calls him a poor man's Klay, but he's not going to be nearly as good as either one of them if he doesn't shed the extra pounds. And what's the point of saying he's in good shape from playing games? Compared to us, yes, but it's all relative. Every starter plays lots of minutes. By NBA swingman standards, he's on the extreme low end for energy and stamina and it's in large part because he's carrying around useless bad weight on a frame not built to carry it. Anyone here who's denying this, do you know any recent stories about guys who got a little too fat and then lost the weight and finally talked about it openly? Did you know they were fat before they admitted it? Have you looked at some before and after pictures to see if you could tell the difference? Because I could tell every single time, and often got sucked into arguments like this over it with people who clearly just can't discern the subtle but critical difference.

Good. The lineup is going to be very good. Spangenberg has an option. I expect Thames to be on the team unless the market for 1b's suddenly improves dramatically for whatever reason. Aguilar didn't really prove he's a full-time player yet, despite his great first half. Thames and Aguilar is hedging your bets. Shaw is going to play 2b against RHPs, so there will be very few occasions to start him at 1b. Maybe against a team that hits a ton of ground balls?

Sure, that's part of it. Wasn't really making a point about age though. Just pointing out that it's hard to tell when a person with a very slender frame has added too much body fat. People keep saying Khris doesn't look like he's gotten fat at all, and people say the same thing about me, but it's plainly visible if you know what to look for. I've noticed some of the most athletic people can tell right away, whereas weekend warriors and regular people can't. Maybe the fact that this is more of a baseball forum explains why people have trouble discerning the difference, because Khris's body fat and conditioning would hardly make a difference in baseball. Age, excess weight, and conditioning are all factors. Khris is very sluggish and lethargic compared to before his current contract. He's lost a lot of agility. He often gets some of it back towards the end of the season (last year's playoffs for example, or his run at the end of 2016). Combine that with the thin layer of excess fat he's carrying and it paints a clear picture of someone who uses the regular season to get in shape, as opposed to being ready to go at the start of training camp. As for "never hearing anything about", when did anyone ever hear about it with Redd, Bogut, or Jabari? Teams, players, and coaches never talk about this until after the fact. It's frankly embarrassing. Plenty of fans noticed it, but you still never heard about it from anyone but them.

Durant doesn't lack definition though. He doesn't get tired on a regular basis and stop getting through screens or moving off the ball. This is not some theoretical thing or exercise sciene. I can easily see the extra body fat on Khris. The irony of pointing out that he's an ectomorph is that having such a slender frame just makes it much harder to see the extra fat a guy has added. They simply don't look big, but sometimes it's there. Henson was the same way. It's subtle but you can see extra fat between his biceps and his rotator cuff, or in his hips and glutes when he walks. I have a very similar experience. I was always 140-150 pounds, ran 5-minute miles in college, had about 5% body fat, and wasn't particularly weak either (could bench 185 several times). I am 40 now and I've gained close to 20 pounds of fat. When I tell people I've gotten fatter, they just say it's ridiculous because I look skinny. I used to think they were just trying to be nice (I've always hated how people deny a person's experience that way), but now I realize many of them really can't see it. I still look slender and fit to an untrained eye but believe me, I am a shell of my former self. The effect on my energy levels and stamina and the wear and tear on my joints is absurd. People with frames like mine just should not add fat, period. It's a dramatic difference. And I see exactly that with Khris every time he plays. I at least didn't let that happen until my early 30's, and I'm not even remotely a professional athlete. I would bet my salary Khris has conditioning issues and would be a lot better if he stayed in better shape in the off season. I still think he's the 3rd-best player on the team, but this is a concern going into his next contract because his natural metabolism is only getting slower. It's been an issue since he got his current contract.

If you can't see how much body fat he's added and how tired he gets when he plays, I can't make you see it. Guys do bulk up in their 20's, but not at the expense of tone.

It's from watching him play. I'm sorry but I don't know how much more obvious it could be. He's a total slug to start every season, and has had at least one benching at some point for total lack of effort in the first few months of every season. That's a stamina thing. By the end of the year, he's usually playing pretty well again. You can also see it in his body. These baggy uniforms can easily hide an extra 15-20 pounds of fat on a 6'7" person. That much fat only adds a few mm to the exposed parts of his arms and calves, so you won't see it if you're not looking carefully. Doesn't matter if nobody says it. Nobody said it about Redd either. I remember trying to say he was too fat for years and people argued. He didn't look fat for an average person, but he was fat for a perimeter player. Then he finally admitted he was playing at 20% body fat for a few years and that's why he couldn't defend or rebound anymore. When Jabari was fat, the team photo-shopped him*. Teams hide this stuff. Players don't rat each other out. Even Anthony Mason wasn't called out for it publicly, and he was 330 pounds when he came to his first camp with the team. *https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/3sgy67/the_milwaukee_bucks_use_photoshop_to_conceal/ There's no credibility to suggesting this is not an issue. It's literally an impossible conclusion if you're actually paying attention. He doesn't want to run off the ball, has lost a ton on defense (used to be one of the very best in the entire league), has to dribble with his back to the defender to save energy, and loves posting up for iso mid-range 2's because it doesn't require much effort. This is not a normal progression for a professional athlete in his 20's with good off season conditioning and work habits: http:// http://

With Khris, I think it's always been about conditioning and work ethic. He started coming to camp out of shape as soon as he got his 5-year, $70m contract. He wasn't even 25. That's a huge red flag. I see that getting worse, not better. It's taking him longer and longer to play his way into shape every season. That said, this is the only real issue. Basically everything can be directly or indirectly explained by his poor conditioning. There is no issue with his ability or impact when he plays with energy. The people who characterize him as overrated or a B- talent are probably the same people who love guys who can dunk easily dunk from inside the circle or have a wicked crossover, regardless of their actual impact on the court. His skills are great for today's NBA, and anonymous surveys of professional talent evaluators always put him in the top 30-40 of the entire league. He lacks those wow plays, but so did Paul Pierce... and he has a lot more in common with Pierce than the guys like Klay Thompson and Richard Hamilton he's often compared to. Those guys are plenty good, but they can't carry an offense the way Khris can when he's not being sluggish. That's why it's a real conundrum. Personally I wouldn't bet on him being "worth" his next contract, because he has shown up to camp out of shape every single year since his last extension. But I'd bet on him to be a whole hell of a lot better than Snell or Brown, and that's what matters. I mean we're not paying his salary, right?