coolhandluke121

Eh, I'd much rather just consider what their production is relative to average at their position. It has nothing to do with a player's merit if they have another really productive player who can play the same position. The idea is to be much better than your counterpart on the other team, not much better than your back-up. You're still much more likely to win because you have Cain instead of an average CF. The fact that you also have Yelich is strictly circumstantial. Then that’s Most Outstanding Player or along those lines in my opinion. If we are getting technical and trying to label a MVP for the team then might as well go with the guy who adds the most value. A 5 WAR player replacing a 4 WAR player isn’t adding much value. A 4 WAR player replacing a 0 WAR player is technically more valuable. A 5 WAR player adds 5 wins, period. You can play the 4 WAR player somewhere else or trade him. That has nothing to do with the 5 WAR player's value at all. That has everything to do with the front office and nothing to do with either player's value on the field, which is measured by how much they give you an advantage over opponents. And not to give credence to the argument about a player's value being diminished in that way, but it's a really strange argument considering the production they've gotten from Thames, Choi, and Braun at 1B. Yelich and Cain have been the only two decent outfielders. Yelich has been desperately needed as one of the corner outfielders all season. They have had as many effective 1B's as OF's for much of the season, whereas you need 3 effective OF's for every 1B. Cain has been unbelievable. It's just a question of home run and slugging infatuation to think Aguilar has a case. I don't want to diminish what Jesus has done, but lots of 1B's produce like that every year. Cain has been truly special. You shouldn't have to be a slugger to be acknowledged as the MVP if you're deserving, and Cain is.

Eh, I'd much rather just consider what their production is relative to average at their position. It has nothing to do with a player's merit if they have another really productive player who can play the same position. The idea is to be much better than your counterpart on the other team, not much better than your back-up. You're still much more likely to win because you have Cain instead of an average CF. The fact that you also have Yelich is strictly circumstantial.

The general consensus is that Miller has to be better than Sogard, which is totally fair. But Miller could easily go into a deep slump too, and Sogard could start hitting for his next team. Sogard is like Drake; no matter how fed up anyone is with him, they aren't going to cut him until everyone is healthy, and his track record is going to continue to give him an edge over "throw poop at the wall and see if it sticks" candidates like Orf. I just don't see the point of complaining about Sogard much until everyone is healthy, just like I didn't see it with Drake when Knebel and Boone and a few starters were hurt. They know what they're doing. Sogard will be gone when Saladino comes back.

I think disappointment with the guys who have been here a while has caused some people to overrate other options just because they're desperate for anything new. Saladino and Miller are nothing special at all. There weren't many other options. Most teams are stuck with "bad" middle infielders. I'll still take my chances with Villar. Sogard looks completely washed-up and Arcia needs to work through some growing pains, but Perez/Villar vs. Saladino/Miller is a horse a piece to me. Sure, it would be a huge boost to get a more effective SS (or C, for that matter), but the flip-side of the dearth of options is that other teams have the same struggles too. It's all relative. My mantra continues to be they're doing a great job and I don't expect them to have a good player at every position, especially on the bench, at this stage of their rebuilding effort.

I'm strongly in favor of considering position. It's a lot easier to get great offense from your mediocre 1B than your elite CF, and it would be easier to replace Aguilar. Cain by several miles for me. Hader is 2nd and is also ahead of Aguilar.

Looks a bit like Greg Monroe to me. Not very quick to get a good shot at the rim even when he's in great position. Looks like every bunny is an adventure. Not very quick to get his hands up and grab a board. Kind of clumsy. Will still get his share of points in the paint and rebounds due to size and ability to hold position. Bit of a liability in help defense due to pedestrian mobility. Still should have been drafted, but I can see why teams would think he won't be very effective in the modern NBA. Monroe had his share of games where he bullied other teams, but he was also a drag on the team at times. Unlike other huge 2nd-round/undrafted center steals like Okur, Marc Gasol, Jokic, and Brad Miller, McCoy doesn't seem to have the potential to develop unique ball skills that make him a match-up nightmare for opposing centers. I'm glad they signed him and he could be useful in certain match-ups, but I don't expect him to be a regular in the rotation.

I like Counsell a lot, but having anyone but Cain lead off is kind of ridiculous. His OBP and speed, combined with a lack of slugging, are about as perfect as you can get for the lead-off spot. The 3-hole is overrated and Thames is not as good leading off as Cain. You waste some of his HR's because nobody is on base and his base-running is poor. A guy like Cain could miss out on an extra base because Thames is too slow in front of him. I know the main thing is they don't want 3 lefties in a row, but I don't think that matters because of the substitutions the Brewers often make. You can just hit Thames 3rd and pull him when the opponent brings in a lefty reliever. Either Braun or Aguilar will obviously be on the bench to PH if Thames is starting, so it's taken care of by their OF/1B slugging depth.

Yes. It's not any lack of talent but rather a team-first mentality that prevented him from putting up bigger numbers consistently. Villanova had plenty of good scoring options and he just did whatever he could to help the team. That's exactly what the Bucks need. They have too many guys who are disengaged except when they have the ball. He has a chance to be a superb glue guy. Being a guy who embraces being a "role player" on a regular basis despite having the talent to be a bigger star is a strength, not a weakness. He's basically been their Ginobili for the last 2 years and a decent share of their team success is owed to having "buy-in" guys like him, as opposed to superstars. I think the reason guys like Hart, Brunson, and Bridges were ahead of him in the pecking order for touches is just because they had more experience in the program. Those are the guys who might have been a little overrated as prospects compared to DDV, simply because their numbers got an artificial boost from age and experience in college.

Defense matters a lot in the middle infield. There's a reason guys like Sogard and Perez have jobs. I mean, would the Brewers be better if they played Thames at 2b? Of course not. Obviously Hiura is not that bad, but if he can't throw, it's going to be a huge problem. I think it would be an incredible bargain to get Realmuto for Hiura and some lesser prospects, and it could get the Brewers a world series trophy. I wouldn't include Burnes and would try really hard to keep Peralta, but would be tempted to do Hiura + Peralta for Realmuto if it was on the table.

Salvador Perez. Realmuto has far more trade value than Lucroy did. Luc already had an injury history before age 30 and played in a much more hitter-friendly park. Age and control are also bigger factor than you might realize, as Realmuto is just entering his prime with over 2.5 years of team control left, whereas Luc was already 30 with about 1.33 years left. Finally, J.T. is on a more impressive trajectory considering this is just the beginning of his likely best years: Age JT:Luc (OPS+) 24yrs 92:70 25yrs 111:90 26yrs 110:132 (only 96 games for Luc) 27yrs 147:116 Realmuto is a legit blue-chip talent, whereas Luc was just a really good player in his while. I have much more confidence in Realmuto to consistently be a borderline superstar, whereas Luc always felt like a bit of a regression candidate even when he was playing very well.

That's true but his talent makes it sustainable. He just had to improve his strategy and "learn how to pitch". He wasn't getting ahead in the count until last year, but improved command over the course of an entire season is not usually a fluke. Some pitchers don't find it until their late 20's. I'm buying his success last year. The real issue is his shoulder, but at least it wasn't a throwing injury. A lot of credit goes to Derek Johnson, but I often wonder how much Pina's game-calling has improved the staff's performance.

I think the hot takes after one good/bad start either way are probably getting to be a bit much. We had a Wade Miley apology thread after one single Miley start. How is it one bad start? He's had several, and it's not just a knee-jerk response to one bad outing. Several of us called Chase a major regression candidate from the start. Unlike Nelson, Chase just doesn't have the periphals or the dynamic stuff to sustain his 2017 numbers.

It's kind of amazing how the starters (by FIP) have performed in almost exactly the opposite order of what most people probably would have expected, and in reverse order of their perceived chances of making the rotation. Peralta Miley (not that it means anything in 6 innings but hey, he pitched well) Chacin (he would be slightly lower by reverse order of expectations but hasn't been that much better than Suter or Guerra, and Suter's batting value moves him up) Guerra Woodruff Suter Davies Anderson Anderson and Davies? Worst on the team. Suter was considered a borderline starter at best but has been one of the most valuable if you consider his bat and glove.

Was ridiculously lucky last year. FB/HR ratio was one of the best in the entire majors. Uptick in velocity was there but was overstated considering most pitchers added about 2 mph due to the new measuring system. Is basically just a better version of the 2015-16 Chase, but still the same basic pitcher.

I think it would be highly unusual, but it's possible. The new Marlins leadership did not have much time to scout these guys. Jeter wasn't involved in baseball in any meaningful capacity whatsoever just a few months before the trade, for example. And the Brewers do have a reputation for giving up on guys at just the right time (Lucroy, Thornburg, Jeffress, Will Smith, and arguably the prospects in the Marlins deal who aren't regarded as highly now as they were when the trade happened). I doubt that many front office professionals would have that kind of self-doubt, but at some point it is rational to avoid trading with someone who has thus far proven to be a much better evaluator of talent than you.

Exactly what we need. Another out machine. News flash, nearly all respectable defensive catchers are "out machines" if Perez is one. They don't need a star, just someone in his prime who isn't 31 and likely to regress even more in the coming years. He'd be a big upgrade without costing an arm and a leg. What they really "need" is to keep their best young prospects while acquiring a decent catcher. Pina was likely a 1-year wonder, Nottingham is a toss-up at best, and they have no other decent prospects there for years to come. All depends on the costs of course, but even if it's not a super-sexy move, it could make a big difference compared to the alternative.

I'd probably be slightly more interested in Salvador Perez, based mainly on what I expect the price to be. And I know this is usually b.s., but I have to wonder if Miami would even want to deal with the Brewers again. I would probably be looking for someone with less of a reputation for taking advantage of everyone if I was the Marlins.

Eric Kriazza!

They're fine. They're a better team that last year and they still have a very good system. They're not supposed to be able to win every series against bad teams yet. That's an unreasonable expectation. They also have plenty of ways to improve, like when they called up Hader and acquired Swarzak and Walker last year. I don't think they're a true contender yet, but they're getting much closer and they're in a better position than any other wild card contender at this point (still think the Nats, Cubs, and Dodgers are the cream of the crop for the time being).

I'd put the over/under at 25.5 wins.

I'd hate to count on Braun to stay healthy and productive at 1B, and I don't want Thames hitting LHP's. But if the return were good, I'd probably take that gamble. Aguilar is better than I though, but not this good. In favor of the "sell high on Aguilar" idea, Braun does look a little different since coming back from the DL, and I'm not just talking about his stats. He's more spry. It makes me wonder if he was a little out of shape (by his standards) to start the season, on top of his usual injury concerns. We've seen him come back hot before though, so I'm not getting too excited. And I doubt any other team is ready to give up good players for Aguilar yet anyway.

I argued in favor of Sogard and Perez all off-season. However, it's becoming more and more obvious that they aren't going to come even close to their peak production (Sogard last year, Perez in 2016) and their career production hasn't earned them the benefit of the doubt much longer. At this point, I'll take a random Aguilar start at 3B once or twice a month and/or Sogard, Perez, or Saladino as the only back-up 2b/SS if it means having Choi to PH several times a week.

Probably should have been up more with Thames hurt, even with Aguilar becoming a regular. A power LHB bench bat might be more useful than an extra middle infielder, especially considering how often the Brewers pull a starter early.

I wouldn't give him today's equivalent of Braun's contract adjusted for salary inflation, but I would definitely give him 5/$100 and would go a little higher to lock him up. One thing about Braun is that his power hitting on a relatively small frame must have taken a toll on his body. He was generating a lot of force with every swing, and while his muscles could handle it (dude was absolutely jacked in his prime), his joints couldn't. I could see Yelich aging better and pushing 3,000 hits.

No-brainer to me. Hader is on pace for almost 100 innings. The most he ever pitched in the minors was 126, as a full-time starter with regular rest. He's only 24 and it would be incredibly short-sighted to risk over-using him at all. I'm not saying they're over-using him now, but they would be if they kept him in every time people here clamored for him. He doesn't have to go 2 innings every time, especially if he looks at all tired. That's crazy to me. You have to trust Knebel to get 1 out against a power RHB in that situation, period. Williams, Barnes, and Albers already pitched 2 innings in the series. Jeffress was done for the day. I'm well aware of Knebel's struggles, and I'm about as much of a "Knebel regression" guy as anyone because of his walks. Knebel should not automatically get every 1-inning save chance regardless of match-ups. But 1 crucial out in a favorable match-up with first base open is completely different. Not wanting him as the "closer" doesn't mean you should never use him in crucial situations. Glad CC is in charge and playing the long game.