I don’t know why citing past situations in which the Brewers and other teams have blown leads is interpreted as indicating that I think there is a “strong probability” that the Brewers are going to blow the lead, or that I expect them to blow it. To me, a “strong probability” would be at least 50% or more, and I am nowhere near that. As I’ve said, 90-95% probabilities are nice, but they aren’t guarantees of a desired result. My general attitude is that it isn’t over until it’s over, and that it currently isn’t over. The responses on this thread tell me that I am not alone in feeling this way. I also admitted above to being a little skeptical about these probabilities because they are attempting to apply mathematical calculations to something that has a significant human element. Once things go sour for a team the probabilities based on past performance and treating every game as an independent event can go out the window. For example, the Fangraphs charts show that the Padres had a playoff probability in the 95% range for much of late June through late July. Was that wild card race “statistically over”? Now just a few weeks later that probability is below 60%. It just shows how quickly these things can change. That is a fair and completely reasonable response. You are correct that those probabilities do take trends into account. If the Brewers were to suddenly drop 10 straight, those numbers would change drastically. Perhaps it is in the way you post that was perhaps causing me to read a little more into your posts than what you were truly trying to say. I think you tend to be on the more pessimistic/worst case side of the spectrum around here, so when I read your thoughts, I automatically assumed that you were almost expecting to Brewers to wilt down the stretch. I apologize if I took it out of context. Sure, if they drop a lot of games in a row. But talent matters. No way this pitching staff allows for that kind of skid. I mean, what’s the longest losing streak this year? A handful at most?