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HarveysWBs

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Everything posted by HarveysWBs

  1. HarveysWBs
    It’s the baseball analysis equivalent of “bro do you even lift?” There is more than one route to the top of a mountain.
  2. HarveysWBs
    I reserve my judgment on the baseball wisdom of this move. But my “some men simply want to watch the world burn” side is enthusiastically in favor of this for no other reason than the impending full-on meltdown of the Brewers commentariat and it’s high priest, Kato Kaelin. I’m just giggling imagining Stearns as arch-troll, scrolling Brewers Twitter like Rorschach, saying “I’m not stuck in this offseason with you, you’re all stuck in this offseason with me.”
  3. HarveysWBs
    One thing remains abundantly clear after several years of the Stearns regime: the Brewers will not, under any circumstances, pay sticker price for starting pitching. So expecting a Ryu signing ain’t happening. But since the question presupposed we are the GM, I’ll answer what I would do. I’m confident that, by the end of the year, this team can somehow, some way make a pile of misfit arms into a serviceable rotation. Coaching, scouting, analytics, and managing can get us to average there. But the bat plays, and we need another lineup stalwart. Sign Donaldson and let slip the dogs of war. Full seasons from Hiura and Yelich. Wrap Braun and Donaldson in bubble wrap and you’re guaranteed better production than whatever the quad of Moose/Thames/Aguilar/Shaw was giving us at the corners last year. Urias’ floor is an average season for Arcia at SS. Garcia takes all of the ABs that would have gone to Gamel, so he can stay on the bench/AAA shuttle. Narvaez will swing a comparable stick to Yaz, and that just leaves a reasonable bounce back candidate in Cain, especially if we can squeeze in a few more off-days for him. Give me that, and I’d lay some money down on this offense being better and deeper than last year’s by a fair margin.
  4. HarveysWBs
    Yep, they sure are. The way schedules and seeding play out, there's actually a decent chance the packers would only need to beat one of the three teams who are apparently unbeatable juggernauts (saints, 49ers, seahawks) to get to the super bowl. All 3 of them have had some key injuries in the last few weeks that knock them down a peg, too - particularly on defense. If they had to play and beat all 3? Sure I dont like their chances. Needing to beat only one of them makes life much easier. Getting that 2 or 1 seed is critical for this packers team. Exhibit A: New England Patriots pretty much every time they end up in the Super Bowl. GET. A. BYE. The division is all but assured now, but if they want the bye, this team has to come up with the game of the season next week in Minnesota. Can’t overstate how important this game is going to be.
  5. HarveysWBs
    What a stupid quarter of football there. Ugh, gross. LaFleur, Rodgers, Bulaga, and the entire receiving corps needs to figure their lives out in the next six days.
  6. HarveysWBs
    Alexander can’t catch. Only thing he doesn’t do.
  7. HarveysWBs
    Uggghhhhhhh...this game
  8. HarveysWBs
    Official review here? Really?
  9. HarveysWBs
    If Im Stearns and they tell me that a prospect is untouchable in a Hader trade i hang up the phone. Best reliever in the game. Pony up or gfy But yeah, I agree with this sentiment.
  10. HarveysWBs
    I was just thinking that. He’s a cancer, but if you can’t sign an all-pro WR and won’t be in position to likely draft one, what is the alternative? Do you roll the dice on a winning culture keeping OBJ in check? I also thought the same thing this afternoon. If they draft defense with their FRP, the guy will just wind up being a turd. Rodgers has 1-2 good years left. Go all in. Yeah, I think a Peyton Manning/John Elway late-career resurgence is possible, but 12 needs another star. Gotta find a way, because this isn’t going to work. I can’t be mad at LeFleur—the dude is going to go down as the most successful first year coach in franchise history no matter where this year ends, and maybe his offense will hit another gear with a year or two to settle in. But I don’t think Rodgers has that kind of time. Not at his rate of deterioration.
  11. HarveysWBs
    I guess the only consolation is that Minnesota didn’t exactly blow out Detroit at home. Not sure anyone in the North is going to scare anybody in the postseason, but I guess we deserve each other.
  12. HarveysWBs
    If this team somehow finds a way to win out, that’s going to be quite an achievement, because they look like poop. I’m at the point where I’ll be thrilled if they win 2 of 3, and am realistically expecting a blowout loss in Minneapolis and two really close games against Chicago and Detroit. Those are coin flips as far as I’m concerned. This offense is a mess.
  13. HarveysWBs
    I was just thinking that. He’s a cancer, but if you can’t sign an all-pro WR and won’t be in position to likely draft one, what is the alternative? Do you roll the dice on a winning culture keeping OBJ in check?
  14. HarveysWBs
    That’s a back breaker on 3rd and 18
  15. HarveysWBs
    Credit where it’s due: nothing wrong with 12 on that play.
  16. HarveysWBs
    Oh I think there is plenty of blame to go around. Much has been made of the pass catchers’ inability to gain any separation consistently, and that has happened, but not as often as some like to think. Scheme can be blamed for this too, but 12 is missing a lot of easy yards in the passing game. I can only speculate as to the reason, which isn’t really useful, but watching replays reveals a lot of open underneath and crossing routes. Too many to simply excuse.
  17. HarveysWBs
    He's not elite anymore. Hasn't been the same since Barr separated his shoulder. Brady is no longer elite either. No shame in being just second tier. I would understand if it was merely an issue of physical limitations. I expect him to be a step slower, have a bit less zip on the throws, miss his mark by a football width every once in a while—that stuff is natural. But I’m worried about what’s happening between his ears. He’s frequently failing to find the open receiver. His decision making is really starting to disturb me. He still doesn’t throw picks, so he’s not exactly forcing it, but he isn’t finding the open receiver in his progressions, even when he has all the time in the world. These things bother me way more than anything else going on with the offense.
  18. HarveysWBs
    On Lauer’s road splits: in Colorado he pitched to a 19+ERA. Remove those 8 innings, and his road ERA was 4.30 with an xFIP of 4.14 in the other 62 innings. That plays.
  19. HarveysWBs
    If they’re worried about that (and I agree that it is alarming how much of a proportion of their regular season success has come in September with expanded rosters), then why shouldn’t we see the moves so far as a massive effort to shift resources towards an ace? The crew could deemphasize starting pitching the last two years because they knew September and October were going to be played differently, and they could ride the AAA shuttle with a bunch of marginal guys in order to hang around playoff position from April-August. Now, starting pitchers will be worth more to the Brewers than at any time in Stearns’ tenure. Isn’t the logical conclusion that he is acting accordingly?
  20. HarveysWBs
    Is it possible that they could be cutting payroll and thats it? Anything is possible, and you aren’t the only person who has expressed the fear that this is all just a huge payroll reduction, but I honestly can’t figure out why this has gained such traction in some corners of Brewers fandom. What has happened in the last five years to make you think a payroll reduction is coming with young talent throughout the roster, an MVP in his prime, and two consecutive playoff appearances? When the Brewers have really wanted a player, haven’t they spent money on them? They haven’t exactly been acting like the Tampa Bay Rays in recent offseasons. I know the whole small-market mindset makes fans a little quick to criticize sometimes, and when it came out that Stearns and the front office co-authored the proposal to trim MiLB affiliates it made the org look kind of cheap, but the Brewers aren’t the only ones who behave this way. Everyone is looking to spend wiser, not always larger. By the time Opening Day rolls around, however, I’d be shocked if payroll didn’t at least approach last year’s opening day figure. I don’t see any indication that the team wants to do anything in 2020 but win. Let’s enjoy the ride.
  21. HarveysWBs
    And he did that in the CAL League, Texas League, and PCL, all very hitter-friendly leagues. Which tempers my enthusiasm about Urias. Especially the power spike in AAA this past year. I'd be more worried if Urias' value was tied to power numbers from the minors. They weren't, because he had no power in the minors barring last year and the juiced ball at AAA, but he was already a well-established prospect by that point. I doubt the Brewers are expecting 20 HRs next year from Urias. You come to the Urias show for the bat to ball skills, and maybe stay for the power growth in a few years.
  22. HarveysWBs
  23. HarveysWBs
    Nice, bonus cash! Time to shake out the couch cushions, because daddy needs a new pair of starting pitchers. Or a 3B. Let's go shopping.
  24. HarveysWBs
    Another unexplored angle here: what if the Brewers don't think Hiura can stick at 2nd? Is Urias part of their 2B plans? Are they considering a Hiura move to 1st (despite their messaging at the end of the year)? Corner OF? Trade? Fire up the conjecture machine!
  25. HarveysWBs
    Only 300 PA's for Urias, and turns 23 in June. Lots of time to reach his potential in a new environment, but I'm thinking his inexperience and massive struggles at the major-league level means he is not going to be the opening day anything. My money is on Arcia (still only 25!) as our Opening Day SS, and if Urias takes off, Arcia slides into a utility role. I have zero confidence that Arcia as a bench bat will be any better than Arcia as a starting bat, but it couldn't get much worse. As for Grish--I'm sorry for how his Brewers tenure ended. He was a key piece down the stretch in 2019, and should be remembered as such. I was angrier than I care to admit in the moment during the Wild Card game, and am a little sorry to see him go. I hope he does well for the Padres. The pitcher portion of the trade is interesting. Projections like Lauer considerably more than Davies, then again, projection systems never could quite figure out Davies' success. Lauer has much higher strikeout upside than Davies (how could he not, though, right?), and only slightly higher HR/9 numbers, but with a move to Miller Park, I expect that to spike a bit, and is my primary concern with the trade. I think a backend starter expectation is perfectly reasonable, so its gravy. Bottom line, though, if Urias becomes who he was always supposed to be, we'll never miss Davies or even Grisham.
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