OldHeidelberg

From the in game thread Wilkerson up and Burnes is down. It's about time.

fWAR doesn't like pitchers like Davies very much, I think it's flawed in that regard so I look to bWAR for a more accurate picture for him. Davies has 7.1 bWAR in 538 IP while Boyd has 6.1 in 554. I don't think for a second Davies is worthy of talk of guys like Yelich, Hiura, Hader, Woodruff and I don't think Boyd is either. The K rate this season is impressive but I don't think a players value swings that much in 3 months. We will see if he is dealt, I agree it will take more than Ray and Dubon but I doubt they land an elite prospect for him, he is not an ace. I do enjoy your player value posts, keep them coming. Edit: Well I just checked and Davies has 7.1 career FWAR as well, maybe not as flawed as I thought. Boyd has 7.4

It sounds like we should have Davies on the block

I think the decision was pretty clearly about Super 2 status, I still don't agree with it and I think it has likely hurt the team but just another example how we are at a disadvantage in this sport.

God dammit it seems like every time we get a lead lately we lose it the next inning

To put it in perspective the next closest corner outfielder is Mookie Betts with 10, then David Peralta with 6. So yeah, he's just so far ahead of everyone else that it helps him value wise. Thanks, I guess if he is the best corner outfielder in baseball in makes a little more sense. I thought Yelich was supposed to be pretty good though and he is a negative player there.

Damn Braun just missed again

If you believe in bWAR it isn't even a 2 man race. Bellinger must be the best corner outfielder ever while Yelich must be worse than Domingo and Khris Davis. DRS has Bellinger as a +19 so far this year in 524.1 innings. Is that really good? I have a hard time getting my head around a corner outfielder or 1B getting a huge boost in WAR from defense. The bWAR between the two is 6.0 to 4.2 right now yet offensively they are pretty similar.

If you believe in bWAR it isn't even a 2 man race. Bellinger must be the best corner outfielder ever while Yelich must be worse than Domingo and Khris Davis.

Yeah, he can't be trusted with a small lead, only in situations like last night where worst case he blows up a game we were losing anyway. I would rather they send him AAA to start and work on his control, we have other guys who can fill the long relief/spot starter role he has been in for the last couple of months. I feel like he is maybe another one of those guys who is kept around because everyone likes him. I guess if they decide he is a reliever I have no problem developing him in the majors. I am not down on his potential at all, just feel like both Freddy and Burnes could use some AAA success to get back on track.

OK, I guess I should have known what you meant by "unlikely offering" since you always reply to these Indian trade proposals from the Cleveland side of things. If Cleveland has no use for Shaw than this is obviously a non starter. But Hand has one year less control than when you traded for him last year and for a contender a guy like Will Smith can come a lot cheaper so not sure the offers if Cleveland decides to sell will be as high as you expect or at least not that much more than a Shaw/Peralta package which value wise isn't insulting IMO. It's possible I may overrate Peralta.The Brewers need help but have Hader so adding guys like Swarzack or Soria like past years is a much better value for them, maybe as you say Oliver Perez is the guy.

I find that offering to be unlikely. I think there are 2 possible models to be followed. One is the Andrew Miller deal of 2016 as a guide/ model. The amount of control remaining, the reasonableness of the money for those contract years, the performance this season by Hand to the year Miller was having at that point in 2016 is all very similar. It could be argued that Hand is performing better this year than Miller was pre-trade in 2016. That model would suggest TWO top 100 prospects (1 in top 50) plus two other pieces. The other model is the Hand deal of 2018. In that case Hand (& another bullpen arm) were dealt for a top 15 prospect in all of baseball (F. Mejia). Ultimately it takes 2 teams to agree. If the offer Briggs made is the best out there for the Tribe, they have to decide to accept it or hold onto Hand for the rest of the season & then determine options in the off-season (keep him or deal him). If I am understanding you correctly I agree I just don't see that offer coming from the Brewers, for whatever reason they seem to really like Peralta and I don't see them moving him as part of a larger deal for a reliever. It is in interesting package though, Shaw is about the same age as Hand, has the same amount of control left and has put up more WAR in his career. He would be a nice buy low candidate for a team that could use a LH slugging infielder and to get a young pitching prospect like Peralta in the deal as well seems to be a package similar to the #15 prospect the Indians gave up last year. Sort of a trade of major leaguers between 2 good rosters that we don't seem to see enough of anymore. You would probably have a good idea if it makes sense for the Tribe but I would say not a bad idea for the Crew since it resolves an immediate need and clears up a spot for Hiura and a possible Moose extension.

That bugs me too, I have dog and when in my condo in Florida have to take him in and out on the elevators 3-4 times a day. The door opens the first floor and people are standing in the way and don't think to step back and let everyone out. And on top of it if they don't like dogs they give me a dirty look like it's my fault he came so close to them. Its a harmless beagle not a pit bull, jeezuz. While I am it I also don't care for people who hate dogs.

Went to bed after watching Braun strike out to end the top of the 10th, sort of expected them to lose at that point as you never feel very good about road extra innings games. Nice to wake up to a win and a big series split. I questioned whether they should bring Woodruff out for the 7th, thought they could lean on the bullpen with the day off but turned out to be a great call as we still had to use all our top relievers and needed them. I sure hope Houser can keep this up, if we can count him as a high leverage guy the bullpen looks a lot better.

I am sure his hitting against LHP will rebound, he missed a weekend against the Cubs with I think a hammy so we are in small sample size with his 63 AB against lefties. The defensive metrics used in WAR hate Braun, basically he is a 4 WAR guy at .900 OPS but that falls drastically to about 1 if he is an .800 guy. I am not sure about defense being that big of an impact for corner outfielders or 1B but I don't really understand it either. He is fine, been keeping his average around .270 only a matter of time before he has a homer binge and the numbers will look good again.

He is obviously a good fit for Miller Park so has more value to us than many teams. Seems like a guy who wants to be here and I think works out with Braun and Yelich in southern Cal during the off season. As someone above suggested if he would do 2/24 right now they should do it, maybe even 3/36.

I thought we decided the run differential thing was due to our lack of quality pour it on players.

Oof

Yeah I think there was/is a DNS issue, going right to brewerfan.net still doesn't bring you here. I couldn't get here for a couple of days.

I don't want the Brewers to get no hit, whatever it takes to break it up is fine with me. Imagine if it was against the Cardinals or Cubs and Braun lays down a bunt with 2 outs in the 9th to break it up. That would be so sweet!

I don't really disagree but I think there is a little more upside with Davies. Other than his injury plagued 2018 he has pretty solid for us and we are way past the point where the league is suddenly going to figure him out, the guy can pitch. A 3.81 career ERA and 4.08 FIP, he is 26 so really entering his prime, I could see him being a 3.50 ERA 3-4 WAR player going forward. Yeah I would have been fine trading him in the off season to clear room in the rotation but last year sort of made me forget how good he is. But he is a Boras client who has I think 2 years of arby left after this one so at some point a sell high trade may make sense, just obviously not this year. As for Bauer, I wouldn't want to give up what it will take. We have done pretty well being 7-8 deep in starters the last couple of years and that seems to be getting us by again this year. It's also an area where we have some of our top young guys so nothing wrong with letting things play out there IMO. We need bullpen help more than anything right now.

A sweep would have been tough here, glad Peralta came through when we really needed him. Now lets get back in gear against Pittsburgh, we seem to either be good or bad against them, maybe it is our year to pound them all season.

Really nice series win, remember last year how we struggled on Sundays for a while but now have had 3 straight 8IP by our starters on Sunday. 8 games over .500 matching season high and Marlins coming in, great chance to move out and take a good hold of 1st place.

Hopefully we can tack on some runs and Davies can shut them down for a couple more innings. Their bullpen must be spent too.

No kidding, it was driving me crazy yesterday when he was going on and on about how awesome Woodruff was pitching while he was giving up line drive hit after hit.