monty57

From the linked article, the Mets are looking at a better prospect from the Orioles. It takes two to tango, and it is possible that Melvin has already offered Thornburg and is waiting to see if the Mets accept the offer, which would likely happen only if the Orioles reject the offer from the Mets. I don't know what to think of Davis, as before last season he was seen as an up-and-coming-star, but really stunk it up in 2013. He could be a steal, or he could be a bust, and it will cost $3.5MM plus a good prospect to find out what you get.

If the scenario plays out as Mass Haas laid it out in the opening post: Ramirez is fully healthy the full season and posts a .850+ OPS while playing good defense at 3B, while their remains no viable alternative 3B for the Brewers in 2015, then there would be a case for exercising the option. Those are a lot of big "ifs." But the variables don't only lie on Ramirez. There is a whole team around him, and what happens there will also factor in. First, there are our top two pitchers, Gallardo and Lohse. Gallardo had a lot of issues last season, and while I hope he regains his form, it's far from certain. Meanwhile, Lohse is no spring chicken, and could easily fall from being a #2/3 to a #4/5. Then there are a whole lot of guys who will play prominent roles on the 2014 team who were not very highly regarded as prospects. If everything comes together, all these players perform well, and Ramirez does what was listed in the first paragraph, then it may make sense to sign him, as we will be "going for it" in 2015. However, if Gallardo and Lohse falter, leaving our starting pitching a mess, and/or the young guys don't perform up to some inflated expectations, what then? Is it worth exercising the option on Ramirez if we don't look to have a good team? In that scenario, I think the better option would be to either let him walk and save $10MM, exercise the option and trade him away, or trade him at this year's deadline and let some other team make the decision on the option next offseason. We'll see how things play out. As of right now, I think the odds are not in favor of him being a Brewer in 2015, but Mass is correct that it is still a possibility. Whatever the case, the Brewers will be better off if he is healthy and productive in 2014, so I'll just hope for that and let the cards fall as they will from there.

I don't really think he was banking on Hart coming back. The financial situation and lack of impact talent on the farm has been known for quite a while, and the scaling back of payroll was supposed to start last season, but Attanasio panicked when ticket sales were low and signed Lohse over Melvin's objections. I look at this as a "backdoor rebuild." Brewer brass fears that too much "selling" would lead to a mass exodus of fans, and it could take years to build back the fan trust. Therefore, they're trying to put enough talent on the roster that they can still sell some tickets, while allowing some contracts to fall off the books and allowing some of their young guys to get MLB playing time to see what they've got. By this time next year, we should have a lot less money committed to a handful of players, so there will be the opportunity to add talent if it makes sense. Unfortunately, without any star-power on the farm, it will be a lot harder for this strategy to be successful, and I just hope they don't once again panic and spend all the Weeks/Ramirez money on another past-their-prime, slightly-above-average free agent vet next year. Any rebuild is tough. This one was pretty easy to see coming. I just hope it isn't as long a cycle as I fear it could be. If some of Davis, Peralta, Segura, Morris, Halton, Gennett, Thornburg, Nelson, etc can prove to be good MLB players, it will help a lot, and that is why we need to let the young kids get as much PT as possible this year (and probably the next few) to see what we've got before we commit to contracts that will likely only extend the cycle.

Next offseason, with Weeks and Ramirez off the books, it might be a possibility to dream of a signing like this, but not now. Realistically, the Brewers are in a position where they are pretty much unable to compete on top free agents. Their TV money increase was something like $20MM/year, while teams are increasing their TV deals by well over $100MM/year. The Brewers can't play in this arena. I've heard some media basically penciling Tanaka into the Yankee rotation, and they're probably the odds-on favorites, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cubs jump in on this. They're heavy on young hitting prospects, but light on pitching, while they have deep pockets and only $54MM in guaranteed contracts in 2014 and $31MM in 2015. It might be a little too early in their cycle, but with Tanaka only being 25 and being around for 4-5 years, it might make sense. A west coast team makes tons of sense with their Japanese fan-base, but I don't think it'll be Seattle, as they've blown their wad on offense, and already have young pitching. However, nothing would surprise me when it comes to the L.A. teams spending money, so either of them should be in the discussion for any big money free agent signing.

Good call, Briggs. IIRC, he's the guy who got impaled by a bat in a freak play when he was with the Cubs, and couldn't put it together after that, leading to his poor final season with the Cubs. When healthy, he seems to be a pretty good player, so if he is healthy now, he could be a nice pick-up. Seems very low-risk / high reward.

When Gomez signed his deal, he had a pretty poor MLB history, with one good half season prior to the contract signing. The concern at the time was whether he would build on the good half season, or fall back to his prior ways. That's why he was willing to sign the contract he did. Thankfully it looks like the former rather than the latter. As to the talks now of whether or not he should be traded, that is due to the Brewers' current situation and whether holding onto Gomez would help the franchise more than the return we could get in trade. However, all that's for another topic. To point at hand, I would be pretty upset if Melvin signed a 32-year old to a huge money, seven-year deal. Texas is certainly living for the moment, as Fielder and Choo will eat up a lot of money long past the time they're worth it. But that's baseball. Live for today, forget about tomorrow, and blame someone of something else when the walls come crumbilng down.

or Taylor Green who hasn't played in over a year and at 27 is a stretch to be still called a "young guy" Yeah, assuming he's healthy I'd rather see Taylor Green get one last shot with some playing time in order to see if he can perform at the Major League level. I don't want Francisco anywhere near 3B other than in an emergency, and really don't want him manning 1B. I'd rather see Green as 1B/2B/3B. In the likely event Francisco is still a Brewer, I'd hope it was as the primary LH bat off the bench. Green is not the prospect he once was, but he is just entering his "prime" years, so there is some hope that he could show something and be an acceptable MLB corner IF for the Brewers for a few seasons. With Chavez, you have a good idea of what you're getting, and as jericholicninja said, if we were expecting to be a playoff team, it may make sense to sign Chavez for several million for a season. However, in the current state of the Brewers, I would rather see how Green does in the role, because if he does well, we may be able to trade Ramirez at the deadline and have an inexpensive, home-grown 3B for a few years until a better option surfaces.

I think there's a good shot Melvin finds his next Mark Kotsay type. A late 30's LH-hitting vet who will platoon with Halton at 1b, while everyone hopes Morris can right the ship and prove himself early at AAA.

I agree with Gregmag. Melvin understands the Brewers' situation, and realized last offseason that we need to hold back and let some of the prospects play while some contracts fall off the books, but Attanasio panicked and signed Lohse over Melvin's objections. Now Melvin is sticking with the plan he wanted last offseason. If the front office feels we need to sign someone to play first, it will likely be one of Melvin's Kaplar/Kotsay type moves, where he finds an older player who will sign a cheap, one-year deal, and who can be platooned or relegated to the bench if a better option emerges. After this year, we will have a better grasp as to which of the pre-arby guys are everyday players, and Weeks and Ramirez's contracts will be (mostly) off the books, and we'll have an opt-out on Gallardo if he doesn't return to form. That will be a lot of cash to play with, and if some of the young guys exceed expectation, then we'll have a base to build around. I don't see any championships in the near future, but I think that's the plan. As to Loney, I'm glad the Brewers didn't sign him to a 3 year/$21MM deal. He's not a very good player, and in our situation, would not be a smart sign. I'd rather just let the backdoor rebuild play out rather than adding lipstick to the pig by signing someone like Loney.

Geez, Monty, are you that cynical and myopic about Attanasio that you can't see that the Lohse signing was so obviously a baseball decision more than anything - in combination with fortuitous timing for a quasi-reasonable contract for a proven guy who proved to be our best SP last year? It was reported that he did it over Melvin's objections, so no, I don't think it is that obvious. Back on topic, I don't believe Melvin plays the PR angles any more than any other GM. In the same MLB Network interview Louis Ely just cited (it was actually 36 day games after a night game), one of the hosts interviewing him lauded him as one of the most honest/open GMs in the business in terms of what he says to the media. I never said Melvin was alone it doing it, or that he was bad because he was doing it, only that I believe he was doing it. From a business standpoint, being able to spin things in a favorable light is a good trait to have. Don't be so cynical and myopic that you believe that just because I say I believe someone did something that I believe it was a bad thing. I heard recently that every major league team is getting $26 million extra this year from the TV deal. They would have only "risked" $6 million of that on a player who was the longest tenured Brewer. The Brewers had 3.07MM in attendance two years ago. That number has dropped two straight years, to 2.5MM last year. After another lackluster year, when determining the budget, they will probably project for the attendance to drop again. Let's say they estimate (for sake of budget) attendance in the 2.25MM range. At only $50 spent per ticket (which is probably very low when you consider not only ticket price, but also things like parking and concessions), that is around $41MM less revenue than the team had in 2011. They also probably aren't considering the probability of playoff revenues. When viewed in that light rather than in a vacuum, even adding the new TV money, they could be budgeting for less revenues than they had a few seasons ago. I've seen nothing during Melvin's tenure of him playing dumb games like Monty proposed happened I never said he played dumb games. I said that he spun bad news in a way that may make most fans view the team in the most favorable light. Pretty much the same thing anyone in the public light tries to do. Lastly, Melvin and the organization never once blamed the "greedy" player for leaving as Monty put it. No I didn't. I said the fans would view the player as greedy. There would be no reason for the team to say he was greedy... that could have negative effects. This board is filled with informed fans, and even some of those are blaming the player's greed, and getting upset about his "hometown discount" comments. It's not out of the question to think that many "average" fans will feel the same way. The Brewers are in a precarious position, and they're trying to make the best of it. They could go out and say "we don't have money to add players because of the contracts we signed a few years ago," or they could trade away some of their good players for prospects, but they feel that either of these options would cause ticket sales to drop even faster than they're already dropping. They feel the current route of fielding a semi-competitive team with some "name players" while trying to rebuild on the fly is the best way to right the ship without losing the fan base. I may not agree with the plan, but at least I'm finally starting to see what the plan is. I just wonder if this was management's expected outcome a couple of years ago (as it should have been) or if they were surprised when things played out as they did. I hope the best for Corey, and thank him for his time as a Brewer. I'm just not surprised that Hart is not a Brewer. I will also not be surprised if they don't make any "flashy" moves this offseason, but rather lay low, let the season play out, potentially trade some expensive guys this season, and start to add pieces next offseason when their financial condition should look better.

The Brewers did the same thing they did with Fielder, Sabathia and Greinke. They broadcast to the fans that they made an offer, while knowing the offer would be outbid on the open market. This is done in hopes that most fans won't look deeply into the numbers, but instead will blame the "greedy" player for leaving, while feeling the team is still doing everything they can to put a winning team on the field. It's a PR move. This year, the Brewers have a good amount of money tied up in a handful of players, and they've seen their attendance drop by over half a million people over the past two years. Last year, they were planning on going to "fiscally conservative" route until Attanasio saw how poorly the ticket sales were, and panicked and signed Lohse. That probably hurt more than it helped, so I think Attanasio may listen to Melvin this offseason. I think there is a little money to apply some band-aids, but unless they can find a sucker to take Weeks, it won't be much. Therefore, I don't expect much in terms of a "fix" for our 1B situation. After this season, Ramirez and Weeks will fall off the books, plus we'll probably make some mid-season trades (Gallardo, Lohse), and next offseason will be the time Melvin will have some money to spend. They could have done a Marlin-style rebuild, but they worried they would lose their fan base, so instead, they're doing a back-door rebuild and hoping the fans keep coming to the games. Hopefully some of the young players step up, and we'll have some decent players to build around. If they can pull it off without a long performance downswing and/or a huge drop in the fan base, I will consider the Brewer management to be geniuses.

I doubt there ever is such a thing as to many good young pitchers. The Brewer farm is a down system all around, but the strongest position they have is near-MLB-ready, decent-but-not-great pitching. It's never a bad thing to add talent, but I'd rather the Brewers' farm have a little more diversification of talent. As I mentioned before, Smith is a useful player, and if you were looking for a "MLB ready" player he was probably good talent in return for Aoki. I just would have preferred a good AA/AAA 3B or a lower minors SP with higher upside. A good young C, 1B, SS or 2B would be useful as well.

I'd guess the novelty of a big signing will boost sales in the short-term, but not the long-term. In other words, I'm sure some people went out and bought tickets after hearing about the signing, but if they have a bad year this year, those same people aren't going to buy tickets next year just because Cano will still be on the team. They'll need another "splash" next year to keep their interest. Trying to buy fairweather fans' loyalty can lead you down a costly path. I agree with MJ that we are in the midst (potentially just the beginning) of massive inflation in player salaries. That said, I think that there is way too much risk in signing a 10-year free agent deal, especially to someone already in his 30's. But, GMs will always want to "make a splash" and "win now." That's an unfortunate byproduct of GMs who exist in a short-term, high-turnover field being put in the position of controlling the long-term future of the team.

Bottom line: As far as getting an "MLB ready" player, this is about as much as could have been hoped for, as Aoki wasn't bringing back a good "MLB ready" player. In the trade forums yesterday, I said that I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers traded Aoki for a "proven" reliever, so I'm not surprised that's what they got. I am glad he's 24 and not 34, and if he can actually start, it would make it better, but I would be shocked if he's not in the bullpen. Melvin said yesterday that he was content going into the season with Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta and Estrada #1-4 and the prospects fighting it out for the #5 spot. I doubt Smith beats out his competition for #5, so while he could see some starts due to injury, he's probably going to be a few spots down the depth chart to even see those starts. As others have said, I would rather have seen Melvin go for the best prospect he could find, even if it meant getting a guy in the low-levels, but I knew he wouldn't. With the current obligations they have, and with the steadily declining attendance numbers over the past two seasons (down 540,268 from 2011 to 2013) the Brewers need as many MLB contributors as possible making league minimum. This trade allows them to shave around $1MM off the 2014 payroll. It may not seem like much in today's baseball world, but they need that savings, and they need pre-arby guys on the MLB roster... even if they're so-so players. The "silver lining" is that if they do stay this course, they should be in better financial shape next offseason, and we'll have had another year to see how these pre-arby guys pan out at the MLB level. This is basically rebuilding without letting the fans know you're rebuilding in an attempt to try to keep ticket sales as high as possible. I hope they're able to pull it off, but it'll be tough.

Probably a fair deal for Morneau, and probably a fair deal for Hart. The questions are, "Do the Brewers have $6MM in their 2014 budget for Hart?," and "Do the Brewers want to sign Hart for two years?" My guess is that if / when Hart gets a clean bill of health, someone will come in and outbid the Brewers for Hart's services. The second year may be the kicker, as I doubt the Brewers want to add it, but someone will.

So, if Gomez is really a 7-year / $153MM ($21.86MM/year) player who is only owed 3 years / $24MM ($8MM/year), how much could the Brewers get in trade? After imagining that, ask yourself, are the Brewers' World Series odds so good that they should hold on to Gomez, or would they be better off trading him for a king's ransom? They could basically transform themselves from a below-average MLB team with a poor farm system to a below-average MLB team with one of the best farms in the league with one move... is it worth it? Which path would likely lead to the most wins and playoff appearances over the next decade?

Aoki: I think Aoki should be traded, and I'd be thrilled if the Brewers could find a MLB ready, young SP for him, but I don't think it's likely. I'd guess that if they want upside, they'd have to take a good low-minors prospect. If they want MLB-ready, I think they'll get an older guy with similar ability and team control to Aoki, but at a position of need for the Brewers. I don't think the Brewers can take on salary, or else they could get an MLB guy with more talent than Aoki with a bigger money contract. Personally, I hope they trade him for a highly-regarded guy in A/AA ball. Other than potentially 1B, I don't really see where "an older guy with similar talent to Aoki" would be a significant enough upgrade for the Brewers to bypass the potential to trade him for a high-upside prospect. Unfortunately, I would not be surprised if they trade him for a "proven" setup guy. Gennett: He is the type guy I wished the Brewers would have utilized as a role-player when they had a playoff-caliber team. Instead, they went "all in" and wouldn't let guys of Gennett's ability anywhere near the MLB team. Because of the summed total of all the past moves, we are now in a position where guys of Gennett's ability will fill up a significant part of the roster now and into the future. He should have a MLB career, especially while he's cheap. He's certainly a better option (considering price, age and ability) than Weeks, but unfortunately, we need to find a way to dump Weeks. Neither has the ability to play another position, so only one should be on the Brewers MLB roster. I hope they can find a taker for Weeks without having to eat the whole contract, and I hope that Gennett can prove to be a useful player. He should be able to provide some value to the Brewers for a low cost for a few seasons while the Brewers try to get out from under some of their big contracts and try to find some talent that will help them in the future. The Brewers should give him the chance to play his role, while they build up some talent in their minors so Gennett can be traded or let walk when he starts to become expensive and/or better internal options step forward.

I guess if they did it, they would hope that he is more than a replacement player. He could be a starter and still be "replacement level." If he indeed has a negative WAR, then he hasn't even been replacement level for a few seasons. I agree with Jerichoholicninja in that the Marlins wouldn't expect much for Morrison. Kind of like us trading Badenhop, they'd be trying to get anything back for the guy rather than either dumping him for nothing or offering him arby. Really, other than having a recognizable name from a decent season a few years ago, and a habit of getting noticed for his Twitter posts, Schafer doesn't bring much more than a guy like Gamel. However, Attanasio likes guys with names the fans will recognize, so I could see the Brewers giving up a mediocre talent AA guy and paying Schafer $1MM or so to play 1B.

I would say that Braun is much too injury prone and too important offensively to waste his bat running around the Outfield 155 games a year. I'd say keep a guy at the most difficult position he is capable of playing for as long as he is capable of playing it. I like Aoki, but I don't think he is nearly good enough to force Braun to a new position. We should be able to find a 1B somewhere who should surpass Aoki's offensive ability, and then we can play Davis/Gindl in LF, Gomez in CF and Braun in RF, which should be a pretty good overall OF. Aoki can then be traded for something of value. That would either be someone of similar ability at a position of need at the MLB level, or a pretty good minor leaguer. Edit: fixed typo

If the Tigers wanted Ramirez, they could trade Castellanos for Ramirez + cash right now, and they'd still have Kinsler instead of Weeks. I really wish they would make that deal. I'd throw in Weeks for free, but the Tigers wouldn't take him.

Very true CheezWiz. There are two basic goals for a team: making money and winning games. While the two are correlated, they don't always go hand-in-hand. I've said for a while now that I think maintaining attendance is a higher priority to Attanasio than maximizing wins long-term. The perception of "we could win this year," especially with the 2nd wild card team, keeps fans in the seats, keeping revenue up. Attanasio has said he also feels that fans like familiarity with players. I think Attanasio is deathly afraid of doing any moves that will give fans the perception that they aren't "going for it" in a particular season, and he never wants to trade a "name" the fans know, and both are purely based on worries of lost revenue. I think that's short-term thinking, and I think that is why we're in a bit of a mess as a franchise, and will continue to be until longer-term plans are implemented. I used to work with a guy who had worked in the Cubs system. He sat in GM meetings, and he said that was basically the way the Cubs were run for many years. Put just enough "name players" on the field that the fans will fill the park. You may occasionally get lucky and make it into the playoffs, but the real goal was to assure that the team would make money every year, and more often than not, the team was out of contention by July. I think that's what we can expect from the Brewers going forward.

Whether they're going to keep him or trade him, they had to exercise the option because he's worth more than he's being paid. I'd prefer they trade him (assuming they can get good value in return), as they have in-house replacements, and I think that what they would get in trade would be more valuable to the franchise than watching either Aoki or Davis/Gindl sit on the bench in 2014. Maybe not for one year, but for the long-term.

Maybe not the correct move for 25 teams in baseball, but for SF it might be. Well put. Teams with a payroll advantage should use that advantage, while teams like the Brewers cannot be run in that way long term. The biggest problem with these type of deals is that they are used as "comps" by other players, driving up the price of everyone, and making it even tougher for the "have-nots" to participate in the free agent market. All the "price per win" numbers and valuations of what a player is "really worth" are based largely on what teams like the Yankees and Giants pay for their guys, and shouldn't really be used for many of the teams in baseball.

The worry about Fielder and just about any other player signed to a nine or ten year deal is generally not whether they are "worth it" in the first few years of the deal, but how overpaid they will be in the final years of the contract. Prince is not in the norm, in that he will still be in his mid-30's when his deal is done, when most long-term deals end when the player is in his late 30's or even 40's. This is why many felt that Fielder was a better option to sign for that long a deal relative to Pujols. The concern with Fielder at the time of the signing was how he will age with his body type. I agree with danzig that there is way too much risk in signing someone to a deal that long at a superstar price. The team has guaranteed to pay the player to continue to perform at a superstar level every year for a decade. There is basically no chance for the player to outperform the contract, while it is very likely they will underperform the contract, potentially significantly. If I'm going 8-10 years with a player, I'd much prefer giving a long-term deal to a star rookie than a free agent, as the risk of the entire contract given to the rookie will cost in total what the free agent will make in about two years. Plus, you're getting the rookie for his 20's, and the free agent for his 30's.

I would like to believe that all the complaining about how players signed to monster contracts aren't worth it would lead to GM's "getting smart" and not signing players to those big contracts, but they won't. Right now, those same Detroit fans who are crying about the Fielder contract would probably do cartwheels if the Tigers went out and signed this year's biggest FA to a monster deal. Meanwhile, there are always owners willing to go over budget to pay for that "special" player, and GMs are always eager to spend whatever the owner allots. To the topic of the thread, I think that if the Tigers were to hint that they'd eat some of the contract, Attanasio would wet himself thinking of all the tickets he'd sell if he traded some unknown minor leaguers to get Fielder back. The only question would be whether the Tigers would eat enough money to make it feasible, and how they would structure next year (they could eat 100% of Fielder's contract next year or the Brewers could give them Ramirez/Weeks). I don't think it's at all likely. As Briggs mentioned, the Tigers' owner wants to buy a World Series ring before he dies, so the money owed Fielder isn't an issue to him, and paying to have him gives them better odds at a title than paying not to have him. Plus, we really don't have anything to give up to a team that is more interested in winning than in saving money. However, if they were interested in moving him, I think Attanasio could be persuaded to take on the albatross.