monty57

When I rank Orlando Arcia over Hunter Morris (and this one is going to get me some fire I bet), Well, the Brewers are starting a backup SS at 1B and signed Yuni B rather than add 24-year-old Morris to the 40 man to be the everyday 1B until Hart is back, so that made me think maybe the Brewers aren't that high on Morris. I hope he pounds AAA pitching and forces the Brewers to take notice, but if he were truly a highly regarded prospect, he'd be in Milwaukee right now, regardless of what he did in 20 PAs in late February/early March.

It will be Yuni. If he starts taking significant playing time from Segura, then there would be good reason for this. If he's a bat off the bench who gets a start every now and then, I'm not going to get too upset with him. It's not his fault Melvin & co decided to sign him rather than letting Halton or Morris play 1B. Note: It won't be Yuni's fault if Roenicke benches Segura in favor of Yuni, but both Yuni and Roenicke will be the fans' "whipping boy" in that scenario.

The Brewers lost there 1st, 2nd, and 3rd option for 1st base to injury. Green would have seemed logical, but they already announced Gonzalez was the first baseman prior to Green getting injured. Green was basically fighting with Bianchi for the "utility guy" role. When both got injured, Yuni was signed. I don't envision Green ever getting much playing time in Milwaukee. Injury replacements are rarely ideal. No, but they had to move a 25-year-old first baseman in AAA to the outfield to make place for the new, 24-year-old first baseman (who may well be our full-time starting 1B next year) down there because they wanted to keep both of their big bats in the lineup. You'd think one of them would be a better option to fill in at first base than a backup SS. This looks to be a case of wanting to play the "proven vet" over the rookie even when the rookie looks to be the much better option.

And we have reports that he's fully healthy. Fully healthy in that he could lead a normal everyday life, of fully healthy in that he has the same swing as he had before the injury and can make it through a full season? Not being snide... I'm actually interested to know. How much has he swung a bat since the draft, and how has he looked? I really, really want to see Roache, Coulter, etc live up to the hype.

I saw this thread at the top of the forum, and I thought Melvin had extended him. Not a good thought at this time. Axford for Porcello anyone?

The Brewers didn't lose yesterday because of where Gonzalez was hitting in the lineup. If Gallardo pitches like that every time and they give up 8 runs in every loss, there are far bigger issues than where Alex Gonzalez bats. No, one game lost because of how Gallardo pitches would be one game. However, Gallardo has proven himself to be a good pitcher, and it is pretty likely that he'll do well if he gets 30+ starts this season. Keeping Gallardo in the rotation is a good idea, so while people won't like the results of that one game, they are not going to blame anyone for starting Gallardo, as they understand that all players have bad games. Gonzalez has a long track record, and has proven that he plays good defense at SS and was a solid pickup to be a backup SS/utility guy. If he starts 1/3 of out games this season at 1B, he will likely not hit to 1B standards. When a team makes a boneheaded move like starting a backup SS at 1B, when that player couldn't get a starting job as a SS even though he plays good defense, then that move deserves scrutiny. It is likely to cost us wins this season, and we're going into the season as a bit of a longshot for the playoffs. We can't afford to make moves that are likely to cost us wins. Edited to make sense :-)

Yes, but it will probably also end up being around 15 pages :-) His swinging so hard at pitches in the dirt that his helmet falls off doesn't scream "patience" to me. I don't know how you could even hope to make contact if your head is moving so much that your helmet falls off. Really seems like he has a "swing hard in case you hit it" thing going right now. Colorado's pitchers seemed to be seeing how far out of the zone they could throw it and still get him to swing. I'm sure he'll warm up soon, but I don't think he'll ever be a patient hitter. I just hope the second half of last season proves to be his "new normal" and not a fluke, as he is now a Brewer at an average of $9MM/year for the next three seasons.

I'm not trying to take the heat off of Melvin, as it is ultimately his responsibility. From interviews and such, it sounds to me like Melvin puts a lot of faith in Roenicke's opinion on the 25-man roster makeup. That's all I was hinting at, and that is his perogative... if it works, he gets credit, and if it blows up on him, he has to shoulder the responsibility, just like the head guy at any business. I've been pretty vocal in my dislike of Gonzalez at 1B. I think that whoever made the decision made the wrong one. That it led to re-signing Yuni as opposed to simply adding Halton or Morris to the 40-man compounded the "badness" of the decision. If it leads to a significant decrease in the amount of playing time for Segura throughout the season, fans should be very upset.

The question is how much input does Roenicke have? I know it is Melvin's job to get the players, but I think he leans heavily on Roenicke's opinion. If Roenicke said he didn't think Gonzalez was an answer, Melvin probably would've found a different fix. Of course, it would've been easy to solve by either letting 24-year-old (not young) Hunter Morris play, or if for some reason his development would be shattered by jumping from AA to the Majors, then let Sean Halton play. Both of them are more offensively talented than Gonzalez. Either one would've had to be added to the 40-man, but that would've been easily remedied by not adding Yuni to the 40 man. No good player would sign knowing that Hart would play everyday once he returns, so why not go with one of the two MLB ready 1B you have. I agree that Gonzalez's spot in the lineup is less important than the fact that he is actually in the lineup every day. Watch, though, as they continually defend his starting job by saying that his defense more than makes up for his lack of offense. But, since he is our starter, I'd just as soon see him get as few PAs as possible, so I'd bat him 8th, which would also free Segura up to use his speed on the bases.

Gomez had 51 spring PAs and had 9 walks. He now has 8 regular season PAs with zero walks. Should we wait a week and a half or so, so we have an equal sample size to compare? It was great seeing his increased patience this spring, but I agree with xis and Logan that we'll need to see him show that patience for a prolonged period of games that count before declaring that he's changed his ways. He's a Brewer for the long term now, so I really hope he has "found it" and will continue to put up All Star numbers like he did the second half of last season.

The whole board has been up in arms about all the service time Gamel accrued sitting on the bench early on I'm more upset that most of his service time has accrued while he's been on the disabled list. Next year, he's going to be in arby, and only has 240 MLB ABs. You have to wonder if the Brewers are going to pay him $1MM or so, or whether they'll just cut ties and go a different direction. I agree on Davis. If he never leaves the MLB roster again, we'll have him through his age 30 season. I'm far more worried about service time with 23-year-old Peralta, who is a top prospect than I am about 25-year-old Davis. If the Brewers aren't worried about losing Peralta a year early, they sure aren't going to worry about service time for Davis. I hope the best for Davis, but looking at the Brewers' roster makeup, I don't see Davis starting for the next few seasons except as an injury fill-in

The Brewers have said that they've been working on Davis' throwing. He could play the position in every aspect except arm strength, and at the MLB level, players would routinely take 3rd base on him. Putting him there in blowout games is probably an option, but having Schafer on the roster will probably limit this opportunity. I do agree that I'd rather not move Braun all over the field. If Davis "proves himself" this season, I could see them considering moving Braun permanently to RF next offseason, but I doubt they'll bounce him around this year. However it works out, I hope Davis is able to hit with sporadic AB's. It's nice to have a power RH bat off the bench.

While Nashville will be fun to follow, Wisconsin is certainly the roster that can answer some questions. With the young guys (Coulter, Taylor, Arcia, Lopez) and Roache's first season after the wrist injury, there is a lot of promise. Hopefully they'll all excel and the Brewers can bring the teenagers up through the system together the way they did with the "first wave" guys (Fielder, Weeks, etc). I'd have to think that if Roach is healthy, he'll move through the system pretty quickly.

Halton, who will transition to right field for the Sounds this season due to Morris' presence at first base, led Nashville with 17 home runs and 57 RBIs in 119 games to earn club MVP honors in 2012. Well, that answers the question of how they'll get Morris and Halton in the lineup every day. I saw that Halton played 3B for the Brewers in some later ST games, so I kind of hoped he would see some playing time there. We could use a good 3B prospect more than another OF prospect. The Sounds ought to be a fun team to follow this year.

Gennett will get his opportunity when Weeks has his inevitible injuries that knock him out for a few months. Brewers' recent history shows that mid-tier prospects need to hit right away if they're going to get much of a second look, so as long as he fills in well in his initial trial, he'll get a long second look. Since he only plays 2B, he really needs to prove he can start there, as there's not much need for a utility guy who can only back up one spot, especially when the Brewers have Green who can be an inexpensive backup at 2B/3B/1B for the next several years.

I really hate having Davis on the team if he is only going to be used off the bench. That means he would likely get under 200 Plate appearences this season and that just doesn't seem like a great way to develop him. He is 25, so he's getting to that point where I'm not overly worried about this. I think Roenicke puts a lot more faith in what he sees with his eyes moreso than what someone does in the minors, so this is probably Davis' best shot at getting additional PT in the future. What is the point of keeping up Davis? We all know Roenecke is going to sit him on the bench and he's not going to get any consistent at bats. Why not just let him play every day in Nashville? Blake Lalli can sit on the bench just as well as Davis can. As long as he stays the #1 RH bat off the bench/designated hitter/backup LF, then he should see some PA's. My biggest worry right now is that Roenicke starts using Yuni as the #1 RH hitter off the bench, and Davis never sees the light of day. I do wonder if they'll try moving Braun over to RF in a blowout game here or there to get some more PA's for Davis. I could see Braun being fine with that, as he was excited a few years ago when he had to play RF in the All Star game, but I would've thought they'd have tried it in Spring Training. Probably much more likely Schafer will get starts for Gomez and Aoki and Davis will get most of his PAs off the bench, getting a handful of starts in LF when Braun needs a rest. The last thing the Brewers want is to screw up Braun at the plate as he's concentrating on another position.

I usually like extending star players while they're still in pre-arby, but it seems they paid above market value for his arby years, and market value for his FA years. You'd think that if the team is taking on the injury risk by guaranteeing the contract, they should get a discount, not have to pay a premium.

Roenicke was quoted as saying that Green is too slow to play the OF, so he's not in line to help out in the OF. Although I agree with Jericho, that Rivera makes a lot of sense, I'm pretty sure we'll go with Schafer and Davis as the 4/5 OFs. Yuni had three hits and a HR in his lone spring training game with the Brewers. Be prepared to see a lot of Yuni, potentially as our starting 1B. I'd be shocked if he isn't on the team all season, with Green spending the year in AAA. My big worry is that with Yuni and Gonzalez on the roster, all it'll take is a short dry spell for Segura to be benched in favor of one of the vets.

WTP, I agree that it probably often sounds like posters are saying "get rid of everyone and let the prospects play." Maybe some are. I just look at things like cost, production and "team control" and try to envision scenarios that may make the team better, or will allow the team to get the most possible from that player. In Corey's case, the Brewers have received a lot of value from having him on the roster. Signing him to the team-friendly extension he signed a couple of years ago worked out. Looking at where we were at last season's trade deadline, with Corey seemingly healthy but knowing he would be a free agent after this season, I thought it made sense to shop him around. 1.5 seasons of a 30 HR 1B/RF on a relatively inexpensive $10MM/year contract seemed like a pretty valueable trade chip. It wasn't that I thought someone else would jump in and exceed Corey's production, I thought we'd probably be able to get a playoff contender to give us a very good package for Corey (I think 1.5 years of Hart = 0.5 years of Greinke). That trade obviously didn't happen, so when the season ended, I once again looked at players who were entering their final year of team control, as I think teams should always at least consider trading players going into their final contract year. Doesn't mean they'll always be traded... just that it should be looked into. Once again, Corey seemed like a good option to trade simply because of team control. Then he got hurt again, and basically killed any trade value he had. As a general rule, I'd like the team to designate a "core" group which they lock up (preferably like Lucroy when they're still in their pre-arby years, so they get eight cheap years from the core guys). Everyone not deemed a core player, whether they're role players or elite players like Prince who is obviously not going to re-sign, should be looked at as to how they can best help the Brewers - maybe through playing year-to-year and maybe as a trade chip. As the core players near free agency, we need to determine whether they'll still be part of the core (in which case we look at another extension) or whether we should look at trading them. In my humble opinion, few players should be kept until they walk in free agency unless we're absolutely a World Series-caliber team and that player is a key cog. However, second extensions are very risky (as we're discussing in regards to Corey) in that they are very expensive and they lock up post-prime years. Signing someone to an eight-figure, multi-year deal should only be for elite guys (Braun). I'd prefer all other extensions be like the Lucroy deal. Unfortunately, we're kind of backwards right now, with (in my opinion) too many eight-figure deals and not enough guys worthy of Lucroy-type deals. While Hart is still a good player, and has been part of the core for years, I don't necessarily see him as an indespensible piece going forward. Therefore, I would've liked to have been able to trade him for a player or two who could have become core players (another Segura-type). Then, going forward we wouldn't be discussing whether we should spend another $40-50MM to extend Hart, but we would be looking at potentially having another key guy we could extend to a deal like Lucroy signed. We could afford a whole roster of Lucroy deals, but we can only have a handful of guys making eight figures. Maybe the deal isn't there for a particular player, but if your long-term strategy is in place, you should be able to continually have a core of younger players signed to Lucroy-type deals, with the occasional exception making a boatload of money (Braun). So, since I (and a couple others) think this would be a good long-term strategy, we look at individuals from time-to-time to contemplate whether it would be worth it to trade that player, knowing full well that every deal isn't going to get done. It would just be nice if occasionally some deals would get made and it wasn't always signing another aging player to a multi-year, eight-figure per year guaranteed contract. Since we are where we are, we're once again looking at the prospect of either extending a guy to a deal which would eat up >10% of the team's payroll, or letting him walk for nothing. We're in this situation far too often.

Monty, could you possibly ever admit it if Melvin proved to have done a good job? Sure. I don't think Melvin's an idiot. I think he's done a decent job at GM, which is why I prefaced my question with "anyone with reasonable intelligence." Could you randomly pick a GM from another franchise and have the success we've had given what Melvin had to work with? If you're 50/50 with the guys out there, then that would put Melvin in the "average GM" books. I actually liked how he was building the team through the beginning of his tenure. I just think that at some point he decided on the year he'd retire, so he set up the team to have the best chance to win a World Series before he retired, turning a long-term strategy into a short-term, "win now" plan. Then, he decided to stick it out a few more years, so he's piled on a bunch of big money deals once again to win before he retires. I wish he'd have stuck to the longer-term view, which I think he may have done had he been younger. Right now, the team to me looks too much like a watered-down version of the 2007/2008 Cubs, and I don't like how that ended. Well, I like how it ended for the Cubs, I don't want to see the Brewers needing to go through a decade-long rebuild. I just wouldn't want to be the guy taking over when Melvin retires, as I think that "the next guy" at GM is going to be stuck sorting out a mess and will forever be hated by Wisconsin sports fans.

But how is that different than where we are? In the Cubs "first window" (2003-era), they had good, young starting pitching, but by their "second window," they were getting older and more expensive (or Baker had destroyed their arms). They added expensive FA pieces to complement the aging core. The Brewers had good, young position players in their "first window," but by their "second window" (now) they're older and more expensive (or they've already moved on). We're adding expensive FA pieces to complement an aging core. Neither team had/has a lot of inexpensive young talent talent during the "second window," and both teams let their farms suffer. Granted, Braun is better and home grown, but from an age and length of contract standpoint, he's similar to Soriano, who was still a very good player when the contract was signed. Some of the Cubs' contracts were bigger, but so is their payroll. From a "percentage of payroll committed to a few large contracts," the Brewers are right up there. This may be what scares me about the current Brewers (and maybe it's unfounded). I live in Illinois and have a lot of friends who are Cub fans. I saw them going through this, and laughed at the contracts they were signing, because it looked to me like it would crash and burn. They put some good teams on the field, and came close to the World Series, but it did crash, just as expected. We should have a decent team this year and next year, but I see a lot of similarities to the mid-to-late 2000's Cubs teams in how we're putting things together, and also how the fanbase begins to demand "proven" at every position if it can simply be fixed by guaranteeing another big, future liability. Compound this with the fact that every team in our division has boatloads of star-quality young talent, and I think we'll be fighting an uphill battle for a while. Maybe it'll be worth it if we pull a 2006 Cardinals and win it all.

Yes, they signed a bunch of multi-year, big money, guaranteed contracts in an effort to win in a "window" when they had a talented team. The additional signings after a lackluster, injury-plagued 2006 allowed them re-open their "window" for a couple more seasons, including two NLDS appearances in the same way Melvin's "re-opening our window" now. Of course these moves eliminated their financial flexibility and forced them off a cliff and into fire sale mode, but they got some playoff memories. They "had to do this" because they couldn't waste the primes of guys like Zambrano and D. Lee... sound familiar? Lohse's contract alone isn't nearly as bad as the Soriano deal, but one could easily compare Braun's current age/contract length with that given to Soriano, and in aggregate we have a lot of big, multi-year, guaranteed contracts on the books. We're playing the "window" strategy the same way the Cubs played it. When Zambrano and Ramirez exercised their opt-out clauses, the Cubs "needed" to re-sgn them to big money deals just like they "needed" to sign Soriano. I mean, c'mon, they couldn't rely on "unproven" players in a bid for the World Series. Fast forward a couple of seasons to see how happy the Cubs and their fans were when Ramirez's contract was finally up and they were able to give Zambrano away (even though they paid most of his salary). Now they're in what, year four or five of their rebuild? We have a lot of similarities to those Cub teams, including how team management and the fanbase are acting. Unfortunately, we know how that played out for the Cubs. It's just the natural progression of the "window" strategy. I don't know, maybe I'm just "irrationally silly," and somehow guaranteed liabilities and age won't affect the Brewers the way they do others. Maybe the mandate by the fans to never accept "unproven" players will work in Milwaukee, when it doesn't work elsewhere. I'm sure Milwaukee's just different. I've said numerous times that signing Lohse and all of the other "win now" moves made by the Brewers recently will keep this team in the playoff race. I don't think we've got nearly the talent of some of our recent teams, but still enough to compete. The strategy is proven to work in the short-term. The Cubs didn't quite make it... maybe we will. I will certainly cheer this team on.

If Peralta were to struggle and Fiers be solid, they'll just send Peralta down and keep Fiers. Question for the guys who know the rules. If we start the season with Peralta on the MLB roster, and then send him down mid-season, could we still get the extra year if he's in the minors for the required amount of time, or do we only get the extra year if he starts the season in the minors. I think we get the year either way (JJ Hardy ruling), but I don't want to assume.

Don't you in some way have to consider that one option costs $12,000,000 for one year and the other will cost around $450,000? Do multiple injuries factor in, in addition to the fact that age is catching up with them? Does working within a budget have any meaning? There are a whole lot of people who got their homes foreclosed on because they "needed" the biggest house that fit in their budget and then they "needed" to finish the basement and "needed" to re-do this & that. I don't want the Brewers to end up in "foreclosure," which in baseball terms is what the Cubs and Astros are going through. I'd love to be able to keep every good player. They do that on the Yankees. We're not the Yankees. We are in the financial boat we're in... we can't change it because baseball contracts are guaranteed. Right now, the way to keep Hart would either be to raise payroll to near $120MM next year or to trade off another big contract or two (Braun, Yo, Ramirez, Weeks, Lohse and/or Gomez). I don't have inside info, so maybe they will be able to raise payroll to $120MM, but if they can't, who should we trade away in order to retain Hart's services? I really think that should be the question answered... "If retaining Hart means trading away one or more of Braun, Gallardo, Ramirez, Weeks, Lohse or Gomez, should we do it?"

Having above average players on "decent" contracts is never a bad thing. Never say never :-) Simple math. Baseball contracts are guaranteed and we have a limited payroll. At, say $100MM, you can only have nine guys getting $10MM/year, and then only if the other 16 guys are getting paid league minimum. If you don't have 16 pre-arby guys on the roster, then you can't even have nine guys getting $10MM/year. Next year (without Hart), we will have five guys on eight figure salaries: Weeks ($12MM), Braun ($11MM), Lohse ($11MM), Ramirez ($16MM), and Gallardo ($11.5MM). We also have Gomez at $7MM, Gorzellany at $2.95MM, Lucroy at $2.1MM and Aoki I believe around $2MM (assuming option is exercised). That's around $75.55MM. Then there's Axford, who will probably get $8MM or so, Estrada at around $5MM and Badenhop at around $3MM (arby guys who are very likely still around) - combining for another $16MM. Narverson and Gamel will both be arby eligible as well, and if we keep both of them, you're probably adding another $3-4MM. Let's just say $95MM right there, for 14 players. We need 25, so even if the other 11 guys were all being paid league minimum (highly unlikely), we'd be right around $100MM just with current obligations. Adding Hart at $12-15MM/year would put us around $115MM, and that's if we could find ten guys to play for league minimum. We don't have a strong farm, so finding ten league minimum guys would be tough, especially for a fanbase that won't accept "unproven" players on the roster, as is evidenced by the quote: Letting Hart go without knowing that Morris/Gamel/whomever can play 1B leads people question DM's ability to plan. I bolded the key part, in that I think Melvin's "plans" only extend to two year "windows." Anything beyond that is the next guy's problem. I like Hart, but doing things like signing Lohse, extending Gomez, backloading Ramirez, and not building a strong farm have left us in a position that eventually we will have to let good players go, while the bad contracts will pile up. If Weeks doesn't rebound, his "decent" contract will be untradeable. Ramirez will be pretty untradeable going into next year at one-year/$20MM. Lohse's contract is already probably untradeable, as no one else would sign him... he'll certainly be hard to trade in future years. Gomez's contract will depend on whether last year was a fluke. I could see us extending Hart based on the same "need" perceived this year in signing Lohse... we can't rely on "unproven" when we can simply pay eight figures for "proven." I think we're in another two-year "window" and any extension of Hart would just make the fall harder when the "window" closes, as his gimpy knees probably make him "older" in baseball terms than his actual age, and I could very well see him untradeable if his knee problems persist. He didn't have the surgery that would've kept him out this year, but would've fixed the problem. Instead, he opted for the same surgery he had a year ago, which required surgery a year later. It's very likely he will continue to have knee problems for the rest of his career, eventually missing an entire season. I don't want the Brewers to have to pay him for that missed season, and I doubt any insurance company would touch him. So, in fantasy world, I like him on our team. In a world of guaranteed contracts and budgets, I'd let him walk.