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monty57

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Everything posted by monty57

  1. monty57
    Looking at Fangraphs, his best position seems to be second base. He looks around average to slightly below average at 3B and probably shouldn't play much SS, especially with Arcia and Urias on the roster. He has limited time in the OF, where he has looked good, but it's only 38.1 innings. If 2019 was just a down year because of injuries and he's really a .750-.800 OPS guy with good on-base skills like he was in 2018 and in limited play last year, then I'd say people will be just fine with his defense at third base. If 2018 was a fluke and he's really a low-.600's OPS guy like he was in 2017 and 2019, then his defense isn't nearly good enough to keep him on the field.
  2. monty57
    Or we could just keep Urias there and save the million dollars. I would be surprised if Wong is anything but our second baseman. Barring further moves, I think Urias is the guy who will be all over the infield, getting starts almost every day, but that time will be split between 2B, 3B and SS. He makes a great platoon partner with Wong at second, and can play SS or 3B on the days we're facing a righty.
  3. monty57
    I'll add that Urias is a second baseman that is currently our de facto third baseman. I'd guess that Wong will be our second baseman, but if he were to move to third, could it be Urias that moves to second, with Hiura still our first baseman? I don't really like the thought of sitting Urias (who still has a lot of upside potential) and making Wong play out of position simply so that Vogelbach gets to play first base and Hiura potentially gets a more expensive contract down the road. Or, we could sign another second baseman to really confuse things :-)
  4. monty57
    Or, he could actually be a good defensive first baseman and it increases his future earnings. Some of the biggest contracts in MLB history have been to slugging first basemen, while I can't recall too many big contacts to second basemen who are butchers in the field. He's a really bad defensive second baseman who probably never should have stepped on a MLB field as a second baseman. It always scares me a bit when a player switches his position, but it does happen all the time. Hiura is moving from a tougher defensive position to an easier one. He's played on the right side of the infield, so he should have some comfort there, he won't have to throw as much (his biggest problem with his bad elbow), nor will he have to turn double plays. His two biggest defensive flaws, range and his arm, are not as important at first base. Nothing in MLB is easy, so there will be growing pains, but it is very possible that Hiura becomes a decent fielding first baseman which would give him a lot of value.
  5. monty57
    It's likely that Hiura won't be a good defensive first baseman, but the alternative right now is Vogelbach, who is also a poor defender. Going from Hiura to Wong at 2B is a huge upgrade, while going from Vogelbach to Hiura will probably be around even defensively, so overall our defense gets a big upgrade. At least Hiura's bat should net him out as a positive player at first base, whereas Vogelbach's poor defense pretty much negates anything positive he does with his bat. I'm fine if the brain trust can find a good trade for Hiura that would bring back a good, young corner infielder with a lot of team control. If they can't, then I think we're still a better team with Wong at 2B and Hiura at 1B then we were before Wong signed. Now we have Hiura as our everyday 1B with Vogelbach as his LH backup. Wong is our 2B against righties, with Urias probably playing 2B against LHP. Arcia/Urias play SS, and Urias/Robertson play 3B. There's room for improvement but it's not horrible, especially considering most of our money is spent in the outfield.
  6. monty57
    I would hope that any team that is taking Hiura's 2020 numbers into account when determining his value, and significantly lowering it, would not be a legit trade partner. Of course you wouldn’t want to trade with them, but a smart team probably would want to take his 2020 into serious consideration. His 2019 was a good predictor to his poor 2020. Maybe one wasn’t expecting it it too be as bad as it was, but a massive decline was pretty obvious. He had a .402 BABIP and 30.7% K rate in 2019. All that really changed is the results started matching the actual performance, which wasn’t that good. The only strange thing was he went from a doubles machine to not being able to buy one. Still, even if you made that a little more realistic he was probably still a sub .800 hitter. Everyone wants to throw out 2020 results, fine, but there is a reason he wasn’t good and it dates back to his finer 2019 numbers. Same goes for Avisail Garcia. His 2020 was not a big shocker, it was close to his career average and not one of his lone outlier years. Some poor years were shocking and unexpected (Baez/Yelich) and others the writing was on the wall (Garcia/Hiura). Look at Hiura's minor league stats, and they look a lot more like 2019 than 2020. The biggest concern for me is that he jumped from around a 20% K rate in the minors to over 30% both years in the majors, which is a concern. He's always been able to hit, so I expect him to be better than he was in 2020, but I would like to see the strikeout rate drop.
  7. monty57
    I get what you're saying, but I don't think anything can be considered "fully justified" by only using what happened in 2020.
  8. monty57
    We added a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman who gets on base, and will get a Gold Glove center fielder who gets on base back in the lineup. "Moneyball" taught me that OBP has a high correlation to scoring runs, and common sense tells me that good defense has a high correlation to preventing runs. We needed to cut back on strikeouts and get on base more. This move helps with that. Hiura was by far the worst defensive second baseman in the league. This move helps with that. I'm sure Stearns has a plan with what he's going to do with Keston.
  9. monty57
    I think that four years of Burnes is worth a heck of a lot more than one year of Trevor Story just by himself. Plus, trading for an expensive player in his final year means you're "going for it" in that year. You don't "go for it" by trading away your ace. A good argument could be made that the Brewers would be better in 2021 without making this trade, and they would absolutely be better in 2022-2024. I don't know that I'd want to trade a bunch of prospects for Story for one year/$18.5M, as we already have Urias and Arcia who are better off at SS than 3B, and Story would probably insist on playing SS in his walk year. That would mean that we'd have spent all the money we have and Urias/Arcia would be our third basemen with Vogelbach at first. I'd rather find a third baseman and have Urias/Arcia at SS. Just to play the game, let's assume that Story would play third base. I'd try to build a trade around Urias. He still has value and the Rockies could get someone who is "MLB ready," while including him in the trade should allow us to hold on to Turang and Mitchell. This would put Story at 3B, Arcia at SS, Hiura at 2B and Vogelbach at 1B. Next offseason we will be wondering how we're going to find a third baseman, and we'd have to hope that Turang will be ready by the time Arcia is gone after 2023, but it would make us better in 2021 when the Central is down.
  10. monty57
    I really hope that the Brewers do something significant soon, because when nothing's going on, we spend far too much time debating utility infielders and inter-office promotions :-)
  11. monty57
    How do you remember that? Was it because it's strange when a 27 year old gets a position that is normally held by an older person? If "nobody batted an eye," then it would have went unnoted and you probably wouldn't be referencing the occurrence. I don't know how many times I've heard fans call for the firing of hitting and pitching coaches. They're always scrutinized. Should this be any different because she's female? I personally don't care that she's female, I just noted that she's young and may now be the most important person in the development of Brewer hitters. I hope that at 27 years old she's up to the task. Most people wouldn't be.
  12. monty57
    Looks like he's heading to the Mets: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/marlins-trade-jordan-yamamoto-mets.html
  13. monty57
    People on this board question everything. The team can't sign a player to a minor-league deal without a multi-page thread. If one of the duties of the person holding this position is indeed to manage the team's hitting coaches, then this person is far more important to the future of the team than someone like Daniel Robertson, whose signing just merited a four-page thread. I think it's fair to question the experience level of someone who could have significant impact on the team's player development going forward. Or, the team and McCalvy could be over-stating the role, and she's going to help in hitting/player development, but not be in charge of it. That would really seem a lot more logical.
  14. monty57
    I will agree with you on that point if that is the way the Brewers run it. I am under the impression that most teams don't do this, but those responsibilities still lie with the Minor League Director (or whatever fancy title they now have for Minor League Director). But I could be wrong, and this might be the new normal with teams reshuffling titles and responsibilities. Doesn't seem appropriate that a 27 year old with a pretty limited resume would have authority over minor league hitting instructors. That's where I'm at. Generally, the position of "Coordinator" is not a position with a whole lot of employees reporting to it. I have no doubt that she's sharp, and her experience seems to show that she's a good fit for the position you described in an earlier post. It's McCalvy's description that has me scratching my head a bit, and that may not be an accurate description of her duties. Stearns obviously has faith in her, and the team needs as much talent as it can get in the player development department. I hope she does great, and have no problem if she eventually proves herself enough to become and MLB hitting coach, or even a GM. I just hope the Brewers didn't jump the gun and give someone too much authority at too young an age. That goes across the board, for example I hope the team attorney isn't someone who just graduated law school.
  15. monty57
    They're already talking about moving the season back again. Once they start doing that, nothing will stop them from moving it back to July again. So yes you are optimistic. The union will stop them. They have to agree to the season, and they don't care if there are fans in the stands as they will be paid regardless. The owners are trying to shorten the season to have less games early on when it is more likely the seats will be empty, but the union really has no reason to give in. Stranger things have happened, so I'm hesitant to make any assumptions, but I believe that we will have a full season of baseball. This is the optimism thread after all.
  16. monty57
    From the McCalvy article: "She will oversee the Brewers’ hitting program throughout the organization, manage the hitting coaches at the team’s affiliates and, when the coronavirus pandemic fades, travel around the system to assist in player instruction." From that, this seems to be a managerial position, and she will be the boss of all of the team's hitting coaches. I don't care what field you are in, most people need to have some experience in a position before they become the boss. There could be some friction, as a bunch of people with years of experience just got passed over for a promotion to bring in a 27-year old with relatively little experience. Maybe they've worked with her for the past few years and realize that she's some sort of savant, but most people I've ever talked to would be at least a little upset if they were in that situation.
  17. monty57
    I mean, cool and all, but how is this “well deserved”? Yeah, she's 27. Is this a position that normally goes to 27-year olds? The Brewers need all the help they can get when it comes to player development, so I hope she's good at what she does. It just seems risky to put someone so young into a position of authority. You'd think the person who will be the hitting instructors' boss would have spent quite a few years as a hitting instructor.
  18. monty57
    You’d have to think this will light a fire under Attanasio to green light that extra year to get Turner signed.
  19. monty57
    The final sentence is exactly why Hader will remain the closer. Even if stats show that Hader is best used in the role he had in 2018, if he were moved out of the closer role, he would get upset and the union would file a grievance because it would cost him a lot of money. Right or wrong, closers make a lot more than multi-inning middle relievers, and the Brewers would be the "bad guys" if they take him out of that role. Plus, Hader can blow saves and people will shake it off. If he were replaced, every time someone blew a save it would be all anyone would talk about. One of Counsell's strengths is the "loose atmosphere" in the clubhouse. This could lead to the opposite. The best thing about this situation is that the Brewers don't have to trade him. If someone meets their demands, they trade him, and if they don't meet the demands he remains a Brewer. They have plenty of time to trade him in the future if they want.
  20. monty57
    The Cubs still have to make a show at putting a competitive team out there. As long as they're even remotely competitive, the fans will show up just to drink beer and have a good time, and the owners will make a lot of money. If they completely tank, fans will stop showing up, and the owners will lose, especially when they have an interest in the neighborhood bars that make big money on game days. Pederson's "rate stats" will suffer if he plays everyday, but he'll hit a lot of home runs in Wrigley, so he'll be someone the fans will cheer.
  21. monty57
    I still remember watching him pitch in Beloit. I was sitting behind home plate with the scouts, and asked how he could look so good against one batter and get shelled by the next. A scout looked at me with a big smile and simply said "Location." That was years ago, and things may have changed, but he's always had the stuff. His success will rely on his command and control.
  22. monty57
    This gave me flashbacks to the early days of my marriage when my wife swooned over JJ.
  23. monty57
    That and the time with the Diamondbacks where he and Randy Johnson pretty much won the World Series by themselves. I'd probably vote him in. He had a borderline Hall of Fame career, and to me his post-season success stories put him over the top. All-in-all, with the notable exceptions of Bonds and Clemens, this was a pretty weak class, so I'm not surprised that no one got in.
  24. monty57
    I expect he'll remain a Dodger, but Turner would be a huge addition to our team. He's turned 36 in November, so my guess is that the Brewers are in the discussion for one of two reasons. Either they are the only team willing to give him an extra year on a contract, or they are being used as leverage so he can get more from the Dodgers. One positive is that if the Blue Jays were one of the four remaining suitors, I'd guess that they're out now that they signed Semian. Their infield should be pretty well set.
  25. monty57
    There don't appear to be a lot of discounts, so it looks like the players have "won" by holding out waiting to sign and the owners are the ones giving in and signing big deals. At least the Brewers are being mentioned in these talks, so there's hope we'll do something more exciting than signing a utility guy.
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