wntrtxn21

I disagree. Year to year variation is completely normal in baseball. When they make balls they make more than a full seasons worth at a time and I don't think they change every other year like this, even if they did you wouldn't see smooth transitions because they don't start new seasons with new runs of balls, they finish the previous seasons balls. I see no reason to believe anything has changed since the new run of balls started late in 2015. Everything else just looks like normal variations and changes in pitch mixes and hitting styles. The 2017 and 2019 HR rates were very close to each other, there is almost no way that 2018 was using different balls. That is just normal year to year variance that you have seen over the entire history of baseball. Look no further than the International League and the Pacfic Coast League to know the ball was juiced last year. Each league used the major lg. ball for the first time in 2019. The I.L. saw a monsterous 57% increase in HRs and the Pacfic Coast Lg. saw an even bigger increase of 58%.... FOUR teams broke the previous team HR record....Teams hit 5 or more HRs in a game 114 times in 2019, a 90% increase over the previous record....24 teams hit 200 or more HRs last year, far surpassing the previous record. None of these are normal variations.

Unless Stearns would flip Merrifield for a good 3B, no thanks. Where does Merrifield play? The Royals tried him at 3B a couple of years ago (2016/17) and it was a disaster. They quickly returned him to 2B. With Hiura at 2B he'd become the 4th or 5th OF and a backup 2B. The loss of Hader gives CC on of the worst pens in baseball and he still has a black hole at 3B.

Imo Urias was brought in for only one purpose, to be the starting SS. Arcia was the worst offensive SS in baseball 2 years in a row and the position needed an upgrade. Urias would be one of the worst offensive 3B and paired with the worst offensive SS, it would be disaster for the Crew. I truly believe Stearns will get a 3B once Donaldson signs somewhere and they make a decision on Bryant.

I'd take the over on Braun at 1B and the under at Urias, Sogard starting more than 1/4 of the games at 3B. There won't be any odds at starting Braun at 3B.

Right now I don't see the big upside to Cease that you are seeing. In AAA 4.50 ERA - 1.57 WHIP - 10 hits/9 - 4.5 BBs/9. His small sample (73 IPs) in the big leagues last year was even worse (5.79 ERA - almost 10 hits/9 - 1.8 HRs/9 - 4+ BBs/9). Certainly not the headliner Stearns would want for Hader. Maybe for Anderson. Sheets is a nice prospect as a minor piece of the trade. Stiever is a prospect, but he got rocked in A+ last year and is too far away to be anything but a throw-in.

I totally agree. The legit 3B makes all the difference in the world. I see Braun playing 1B a lot more than Smoak. Cain CF Huira 2B/ I like Huira in the second spot because he'll see plenty of good pitches ahead of Yelich Yelich LF Braun 1B Garcia RF Narvaez C Unknown 3B Urias SS. Many nice pieces to move around in the lineup. Plenty of options on the bench with Smoak(SH), Gamel(hits leties well), Pina(playes against lefties), Sogard to mix and match against certain pitchers. If Stearns can add a Harris or McHugh along with a viable 3B option, I think the Crew contends once again.

I agree, I keep coming back to Seager as a good fit. Throughout his career he has been competent against both RHP and LHP, so he is someone that should be able to start nearly everyday (assuming good health). It seems like their current roster construction has put an emphasis on raising the offensive floor, and Seager seems to fit right into that mold, with still having a decent enough upside to provide above average offensive numbers. He looks like a good match when inserted into their current potential lineups. It does seem like the contract (and team option changing to a player option) will ultimately be the biggest hang-up to overcome. I know the option is a hang-up but I wish it wouldn't be. Obviously I'd prefer it be a team option but at 1/15 it's less than the QO which he would likely get now if he were a FA. I think without knowing the name if we were told we were getting a 3B that had 2.9 WAR or more in 7 out of the last 8 seasons and averaged about 4 per season I think we would be pretty excited about that. Value-wise I would put Seager at least at Mike Moustakas level, who is getting 4/64. Seager at 3 years for less AAV is a better value. I think you're right about Seager being about the Moustakas level. However Seager's AAV if he gets full salary is actually higher than that of Moustakas. Seager: $19.5M-18.5M-15M = 53M or $17.7AAV. Moustakas = $16M AAV.

Taking Seager's entire deal could work... https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-19880/ Mariners get: OF Tristan Lutz Brewers get: 3B Kyle Seager LHP Justus Sheffield RHP Justin Dunn Opening Day roster: ss: Urias 2b: Hiura lf: Yelich rf: Garcia c: Narvaez 1b: Smoak 3b: Seager cf: Cain pitcher bench: Pina, Braun, Sogard, Gamel, Arcia rotation: Woodruff, Dunn, B. Anderson, Lindblom, Lauer bullpen: Hader, Knebel, Suter, Peralta, Houser, Sheffield, Claudio, Yardley That's a 26-man to win the division. I think you way, way, way over-value Lutz. Lutz has yet to reach AA ball and hit only .235 in low A Appleton and .245 in A+ Carolina. Lutz alone wouldn't even get Dunn much less all three even if they took on Seager's entire contract.

That's the same as saying they could rotate Braun between OF and 3B. Just not going to happen because Castellanos is that bad at 3B. IMO once Stearns signed Garcia and Smoak it took Castellanos completely out of the picture.

No matter which lineup you choose, it would be one of the weakest in baseball. 6-8 is horrible either way.

I thought this rumor was debunked weeks ago. The Brewers have almost no interest in Frazier and Andujar is not a headliner.

The only knock on Arraez is he has little or no power.

No to the Mets trade. Wilson is an ok RP, but Diaz was a train wreck and a huge ?. Brett Baty, Hernandez, and Alvarez just finished rookie ball and are no help for at least 3-4 years, and quite possibly never. The trade does nothing to make the Crew better or address any need. D'Backs: Ray is a one year rental, Chafin a middle inning reliever, and Robinson still in low A ball. Again, it does nothing to improve the Brewers. Yankees: any trade that features Andujar is no help what-so-ever. Phillies: Suarez is a reliever that allowed 9.6 hits/9. Another middle inning reliever. Howard is a SP that barely made it to AA. Scott was just drafted and 4-5 years away. None help the Brewers in any way.

None of the players fit a real need. Gonsolin is a SP but not really a #1 or #2. Rios is a 1B where they have Braun and Smoak. Ruiz is a catcher, a position where they just signed Narvaez. The Crew's most immediate need is at 3B. Plus the pen now becomes the worst in all baseball w/o Hader and they still need a thirdbaseman.

Data is fine, no question about it, but a lot of times, and it's not just posters here but people in a lot of different places think analytical numbers are gospel. That's what bothers me about it. People have clung to analytics like they are the be all end all, and an absolutely perfect system. I have news for those people. It's not perfect. never has been, never will be. Sometimes, keeping it simple is all you need. I mean look at how many people here cite War...like it's the be all end all and if they don't have this or that War, that means they aren't very good, as if that tells them everything they need to know. It isn't. I mean back before analytics existed, people were able to tell who was good and who wasn't by using the simple eye test(which to me is still accurate), now, it seems people don't trust their eyes enough that they are relying on analytics to essentially "do the work for them". How did we ever survive this life without analytics and advanced metrics?? Back before we had stoves and microwaves we could cook well enough. Ovens and microwaves have made cooking a whole lot more efficient and accurate tho. Having said that, there isn't one person on this board that will tell you analytics is the end all be all. Not one...ever. This is just another straw-man argument and an attack on those that actually understand the analytics and how to use them. They matter because our eyes lie to us and the "eye test" is every bit as flawed as some of the metrics. Heck, this entire window this team is operating is highly analytically driven and it has been a complete success. The proof is right there. Having said that, I am increasingly in the camp that suspects Andujars defensive shortcomings are being a bit overplayed, particularly when equally poor defenders are being proposed as alternatives. I don't believe there was an equally poor fielding alternative to Andujars. It's hard to overplay his defensive shortcomings when he was the worst fielding 3B in all of baseball. A couple of bloggers have speculated Castellanos could play 3B, but that's unrealistic. The fact is with Anderson, Lindblom, Lauer, etc.. there is going to be a lot of balls pulled and a lot of ground balls. The Crew can't afford to have the worst defensive 3B in baseball at the hot corner.

This is a stretch. You don't get to decide the value of your home. If no one is willing to pay the $500,000 you want for it, then it isn't worth $500,000 and you lower the price. It happens every single day and it isn't low balling at all, that is how the market works. Sure you can hold on to it but every year it is going to get more and more expensive to maintain and you are eventually going to have to deal with significant repairs like a roof (shoulder) or HVAC (elbow) and loose some of the utility of the home. You have to pay to replace the broken things as well which incurs a certain opportunity cost. Personally, I'd take the market value and turn that into a less flashy house, a small beach house and a couple of rental properties that have a good chance of producing in the future. Next year there may be a shortage of housing on the market (currently in many places) and your house is one of the most desirable homes out there. People will pay what you want because there is very little inventory and the price is set accordingly. When you have THE most desirable home you dictate price. That's also how the market works.

IMO Stearns is looking for MLB ready prospects, not a 16 year old and a guy who is still in rookie ball. They both are too far away to know IF they will be even close to MLB players. I'm not sure any of the Yankees top prospects would interest Stearns unless he got a good MLB player to go along with the prospects. If he is going to decimate his pen, he needs to get immediate help at a position of dire need.

By all indications Diaz is a well below avg. thirdbaseman. His arm is, at most, average and he has large negative numbers as a 3B. I doubt seriously that the Astros would part with Gurriel unless Stearns overwhelmed them, which he is very unlikely to do. Very creative thinking of Nunez. A lot of power and a decent thirdbaseman. I have no idea what it would take to get him, but it's the O's so who knows.

Only one guy in the Sox top 10 prospects and that's Madrigal who is a 2B only. They tried him at 3B and SS and he quickly returned to 2B. Blocked by Huira, so no need for him. Collins is a catcher with power, walks a lot, but he whiffs at alarming rates. He's a hit-or-miss guy that usually doesn't stick around long. Flores is 24 and still in AA. More hits than IPs, not a big K guy. He's the throw-in with this deal. Mendick is a nice prospect at 3B, but power is the concern. Now if the Sox said Vaughn-Kopech (coming off TJ surgery, but has looked great in the fall), with the throw-in Mendick, I'd jump at that for Hader.

Hader to NYM prospects KSmith, Baty, FAlvarez and Arcia and Lowrie to PIT (PIT new GM buying low, taking on payroll, and absorbing young controllable talent). and to MKE: Ke'Bryan Hayes (Hayes continues to improve as a hitter. He's always had a solid approach at the plate, but it's become even more refined, with a walk rate that went up for a third straight season in 2018. So did his ability to drive the ball. While he still largely uses a contact-first approach, Hayes set career highs in extra-base hits and slugging percentage, and there's more over-the-fence power to come as he matures and continues to add strength. That might slow him down a touch, but he's still smart enough on the basepaths to steal bases. There might not be a better defensive third baseman in the Minors, with his agility, hands, arm and instincts all pointing to future Gold Glove awards. Hayes will be 22 years old for all of the 2019 season, with plenty of room for growth from an already-impressive toolset. He has every chance to be an elite-level third baseman at the big league level.) Peterson (former #1 pick and LH starter from NYM---Peterson's fastball is average in terms of velocity, as he'll sit at 89-91 mph and touch 93, but few starters in the Minors can sink and command it as well as he does. Logging 127 1/3 innings in his first full season, Peterson yielded only two home runs (0.14 HR/9) and posted the third-best ground-ball rate (64.5%) in the Minors among qualified pitchers. He combines his heater with an above-average slider that nets him whiffs as an out pitch, while his changeup, which flashes above-average, gives him a weapon against right-handed hitters. He fills out his four-pitch mix with a fringy curveball that he can throw for a strike. Despite a lower arm slot from his 6-foot-6 frame, Peterson has demonstrated outstanding control of all his pitches, even if he can stand to refine his overall command some. Average bat-missing ability and a knack for inducing weak, ground-ball contact points to more of a floor than a ceiling for Peterson, but it might not take him that long to reach his potential as a No. 3 or 4 starter.) Ashcraft (At 6-foot-5 and closing in on 200 pounds, Ashcraft is the prototypical athletic and projectable high school right-hander. He's been up to 94 mph consistently already, and with his frame, he's likely to add strength and velocity as he matures and he throws his fastball with excellent extension, angle and sink. His slider was up to 82-85 mph in the GCL and could give him a second plus pitch in time. The changeup is behind the other two pitches, but he has a feel for it and there's confidence it will catch up and be at least an average offering.) "Not enough for this guy, No way ____ will go for that... blah blah blah" Don't think it directly works? Then fill in the gaps, but the essence is... We don't want to pay 5mil+ for a RP with a sub 3WAR for years to come because it will not be good value. KBHayes' father played in MKE and this kid has the glove NOW...let him grow into a solid 3B and take the lumps but hope that his #36 MLB prospects ranking holds true. Peterson has attributes and is a lefty as we covet the hell out of them recently. Given the WAR on TGrisham and ZDavies that went out...this is a comparable haul and should be the expectation of a team run by a value oriented GM. Nowhere near enough for Hader. Peterson at AA: more hits than IPs and .283 BA against. Ashcraft is still in rookie ball and 4.58 ERA there. He's 4-5 years away. Hayes is absolutely nothing to get excited about other than his glove. AAA ball .264 avg/.745 OPS. Way, way too little for Hader.

I wouldn't make the Yankee trade because Andujar is so bad at third he has become a DH/1B. Happ would be zero help and probably DFA'd. The Brewers would be trading Braun and Hader, not saving any money, and getting a 1B, a run-down pitcher, and a pinch hitter in return. I don't like the Correa deal because he's gone in two years and the Crew gets no pitching in return. I definitely do it for Smith and Syndergaard. I don't think Matz plays out to well in Milwaukee and Familia is owed too much money for his fleeting talent.

I think almost the entire Brewer faithful agree with you.

No thanks on Strop. He's just too erratic. Rondon allows almost a hit per inning and has a 4.96 FIP. Again, not worth the money he'd want. The rest of the guys except McHugh are back end of the pen type guys that the Brewers could fill cheaper and with younger guys on the way up. Buchter's 4.98 FIP says he's not a fit for Miller Park.

Alex Wood is the guy I'd want if he's healthy. I'd like to see Stearns sign Wood and Walker to small contracts and take a chance. Both could be great finds or DFA'd. I'd definitely like to see Salazar NRI.

While I agree that the Yankees don't have a lot that interests me in a Hader deal (that they'd likely give up anyways), they do have some pieces that may interest a third team. Yankees get: Hader Yankees get their man while shedding a couple million in payroll Mariners get: Andujar & Happ Mariners save $18M in 2021 and add another talented young piece to add to their other talented young pieces. Maybe Happ can mentor Sheffield and Kikuchi. Brewers get: Seager, Gonzales, Garcia, Montgomery & Cash ($5-10M from the Yankees) Brewers get their 3B, an upgrade to the rotation, another LHP for the pen, a top 100 prospect, and add between $10-15M in payroll. The Brewers would absolutely love the trade, but the M's wouldn't want any part of it. They give up their best pitcher and Seager for a DH/1B, a broken down pitcher, and money. They would be much better off dealing Seager to save money and keeping Gonzales.