Assuming it's a crapshoot once you're in the playoffs, after the initial Wild Card game, the remaining 8 teams would each have a 12.5% to win the World Series, which means the Wild Card teams each have half that chance at 6.25%. Most projection systems still see the Cubs as the division favorite, so *if* they make it to the playoffs, most systems see it as a Wild Card team. So stick them closer to that 6.25% spot *if* they make the playoffs and *if* all teams are equal. Add in there's a 20% chance they don't even make the playoffs, and add in the fact that most systems see them as one of the weaker teams if they do make it, 4% doesn't seem too far off. Now... add in Machado, Realmuto, and a starting pitcher and I wonder how far that rises.