brewerfan82

fWAR, exported data from Fangraphs

I took a stab at this. Sorted the 2017 SPs by WAR and then found averages by group (ie. #1 pitcher is players 1 through 30, #2 pitcher is players 31 through 60, etc.): [pre]Average SP W L GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP xFIP WAR WHIP ERA- #1 (1 to 30) 12.3 6.2 26.5 160.0 9.4 2.8 1.0 .275 3.06 3.57 3.73 3.6 1.13 69.7 #2 (31 to 60) 10.3 8.4 25.7 149.7 8.3 2.9 1.1 .292 3.77 3.93 4.11 2.6 1.26 87.1 #3 (61 to 90) 8.8 7.8 23.8 133.6 7.9 3.1 1.3 .295 4.24 4.39 4.38 1.7 1.33 97.9 #4 (91 to 120) 7.7 9.3 24.3 137.3 8.0 3.1 1.3 .309 4.60 4.44 4.33 1.6 1.39 105.8 #5 (121 to 150) 6.4 8.3 22.1 118.7 7.3 3.4 1.6 .300 5.15 5.10 4.87 0.7 1.45 117.1[/pre] That gives an average look at what each pitcher type looks like. Next I shifted the groups I averaged to estimate what a player at the lower limit of each category would look like (ie. I average players 15 to 45 to estimate what a #30 pitcher looks like and therefore a #1 pitcher should have at least those stats): [pre]Threshold SP W L GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP xFIP WAR WHIP ERA- #1 (15 to 45) 10.8 7.4 25.4 150.2 8.7 2.9 1.1 .286 3.47 3.84 3.99 2.8 1.22 79.3 #2 (45 to 75) 9.6 8.6 25.4 144.5 7.8 3.0 1.1 .291 4.04 4.19 4.34 2.1 1.29 92.7 #3 (75 to 105) 7.9 7.9 23.6 132.1 8.4 3.2 1.3 .303 4.39 4.39 4.32 1.7 1.35 101.7 #4 (105 to 135) 7.8 9.3 24.2 134.4 7.4 3.1 1.4 .310 4.86 4.68 4.52 1.3 1.43 110.9 #5 (135 to 165) 5.2 9.2 21.1 109.7 7.3 3.6 1.7 .302 5.53 5.28 4.99 0.5 1.49 126.6[/pre] And here are the Brewers' 2018 ZiPS projections: [pre]Brewers ZiPS ERA FIP ERA- K/9 BB/9 zWAR Appx. Slot (based mainly on ERA, FIP, and ERA-) Nelson 3.74 3.79 85 9.1 3.1 3.5 2 Davies 4.05 4.06 91 6.8 2.6 3.4 2-3 Woodruff 4.17 4.17 93 8.2 3.2 1.9 2-3 Anderson 4.32 4.48 100 7.9 2.9 1.9 3-4 Chacin 4.77 4.68 108 7.5 3.8 1.2 4-5[/pre] I'm sure there are many holes in this technique, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.

Can we just sign Arrieta/Cobb, re-sign Walker, get Braun a firstbase glove, and get this thing on the road? That lineup would be sick. CF Cain LF Yelich 1B Braun RF Santana 3B Shaw 2B Walker C Pina SS Arcia

FYI, regarding HH, on Al's Ramblings (assuming he's talking to the real HH), he's saying he's still not on Twitter as well: http://albethke.blogspot.com/

He never says there was an "official" offer or decline, but I'm not sure what's to be misinterpreted in what Heyman said (and what that implies about what Arrieta expects he's worth in free agency):

Oh wow... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/jake-arrieta-turned-down-six-year-offer-from-cubs.html

To be fair, if you use Corbin's ZiPS projection instead of what he did last year, it's a 104 ERA+ compared to Nelson's 115, Davies' 108, Anderson's 100, Chacin's 90, and Woodruff's 103. So he'd be middle of the pack. Solidifies the rotation a bit for sure, but not as much as some of the free agents (Arrieta 117, Cobb 108, Lynn 106) or other trade targets (Archer 125, Stroman 121, Salazar 117, Fulmer 111, McHugh 109)

Furthermore, I thought vesting options/incentives couldn't be performance based, hence why they always have to do with appearances/at-bats and/or awards (MVP/Cy Young). Albeit, I can't find that in writing anywhere, someone correct me if that's incorrect.

The next week (or month??) is going to be fascinating. Going off of CBS' top 50 FA tracker, 21 are still unsigned (including 6 of the top 9!): https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agent-tracker-2017-18-latest-hot-stove-signings-best-players-available/ Suitors for Santana are no doubt being held up to some extent by the free agents that have yet to be signed. And similarly, The Brewers could be holding off on making a trade for a pitcher until they know if they've landed any of the SP's available as well. So many pieces that still need to fall into place.

I can understand not liking the opt out if he was a younger player and the deal was for his age 27 to 33 seasons, but Darvish is going to be 32 years old this year, no matter how well he performs the next two seasons, the final 4 years on this contract, when he's 34-37 years old, are going to be a gamble. Teams would have loved him on a low year, high salary contract to begin with and the Cubs may get him on a low year, low salary (relatively) contract and then get out of all the worrisome years as well. On the flip side, if he falls off a cliff the next two seasons and they're stuck with him for all 6 years, well, if there was no opt-out to begin with, they would have been stuck with him anyways. So really the downside's the same. Heck, it's possible he was demanding a 7th year and came down to 6 if they included the opt-out. So it may have been a worse, worst-case scenario if they didn't agree to it. You might be a little irked if he performs well and you don't have him locked down for the final four years, but you also all of a sudden free up $84M over those 4 years if he does decide to leave.

With Darvish off the board, Arrieta has the most potential impact, but I'm scared of his cost and bust potential. At this point I'd be tempted to play it more conservative, sign Cobb and still try to get a Santana for Salazar deal finalized. Going into the season with Anderson, Salazar, Cobb, Davies, and Chacin would still be a significant upgrade, we hold onto Phillips, Woodruff, and Burnes, and maintain financial (and talent) flexibility for additional midseason maneuvering if needbe (ie. Nelson's comeback isn't going well, or there's an injury, or there's some other under-performance that needs addressing).

Except for the main reason: At some point you need to get TOR pitching if you want to legitimately compete for the World Series. Darvish has racked up 19.3 WAR, a 3.42 ERA, and a 1.18 WHIP in his career. Looking through the top 20 picks each year in the 48 year history of the Brewers, close to 1000 draft picks overall, the Brewers have managed to draft TWO starting pitchers that had a career WAR over 6 (that's not a typo), with an ERA below 4.00... Ben Sheets (3.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 23.4 WAR) and Yovani Gallardo (3.98 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 23.3 WAR). So unless you want to hope the next 50 years of drafting goes better and you luck into some TOR arms, the truth is the Brewers will likely need to overpay for some sure arms with money and/or prospects at some point.

Is that based on this line in his latest notes? https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-what-is-red-soxs-backup-plan/ If that makes you "NO WAY" want a free agent, you're not going to get many free agents. If there's some other information Heyman revealed that I missed, would love to hear the scoop!

Pitching, pitching, pitching. Here are where our current guys have stacked up and how they project for next year amongst some of the other potential acquisitions: [pre]Player 3yr xFIP (Rnk) '17 xFIP (Rnk) '18 ZiPS FIP --------- -------------- -------------- ------------- Archer 3.25 (12) 3.35 (17) 3.10 Arrieta 3.39 (16) 4.11 (51) 3.94 Stroman 3.49 (21) 3.58 (24) 3.47 Darvish 3.50 (22) 3.65 (29) 3.22 Paxton 3.51 (24) 3.25 (9) 3.00 Salazar 3.51 (25) 3.26 (10) 3.48 . . . Corbin 3.94 (47) 3.88 (38) 4.18 Bauer 4.00 (66) 3.61 (26) 3.79 Nelson 4.04 (71) 3.15 (5) 3.79 Davies 4.18 (93) 4.42 (85) 4.06 Cobb 4.26 (106) 4.24 (69) 4.00 Duffy 4.31 (109) 4.39 (84) 3.86 Lynn 4.34 (118) 4.75 (111) 4.25 Anderson 4.42 (127) 4.33 (75) 4.48 Odorizzi 4.47 (132) 5.10 (139) 4.35 Chacin 4.50 (139) 4.54 (99) 4.77[/pre] Not super convincing for a playoff hopeful team. So, if I get to grab any free agent, it's Darvish. And then I'm seeing if I can get that Archer deal to go through. If that can't get worked out, I'm trying to get a Santana for Salazar trade to work. If that's a no-go, I consider Corbin or Bauer if it's done around a Broxton-like price (doubt Bauer is available for that price, but would consider Corbin). And if none of those workout, I go into the season with Yu powering the rotation, hope Seattle and/or Toronto become sellers, and try to throw the farm at them for Stroman or Paxton at the deadline.

Thanks for the summary NOMAAM! Here are the Darish tidbits from Heyman's article yesterday (https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-betts-arb-win-could-affect-others/):

Why??? It's debatable whether or not other GM's and agents see through the press talk, but there's no benefit for him to outwardly admit that he's stuck in a desperate situation where he needs to cave into a free agent's or other team's demands in order to obtain a player. He's got to at least leave a little benefit of the doubt in people's minds that "he may actually just go into the season as is if we don't cooperate."

That's a really interesting take actually (also with the caveat that I wouldn't really trust BW, but he does spew out enough stuff he finds in random places that he does accidentally hit on things sometimes). As soon as it was mentioned Phillips might be needed in an Archer deal I was wondering if there was an OF bat they could throw back our way to lessen the blow. In addition to actually sounding more like "Jack Bauer" than Trevor does, he bats lefthanded, has actually played more outfield than first the past two seasons (last year predominantly in LF, while in 2016 predominantly in RF), and despite not showing a lot of power for a 1B/corner OF type, he gets on base at a good clip and is ranked 73 on MLB's top prospect list. Certainly would make giving up a haul for Archer a bit easier to stomach.

The farm would be thinned out pretty significantly, but if we could swing a deal for Kipnis/Salazar around Santana+ and a deal for Archer around Phillips/Burnes/Peralta+ without giving up Hiura, we'd be pretty set for the next few years at the big league level while hopefully the guys further away continue to develop. The outfield is a little scary with Braun and Cain's ages, but still having Broxton on the cheap for the next 5 years helps a lot and makes losing all the other young outfielders feasible. Not to mention Thames and Perez' flexibility to play some outfield as well. The real payoff is the rotation looks really solid and affordable for the next 3 years as well. It would be sooo tempting to go for it. As long as we can hold onto Hiura, I'd be okay with losing all the talent in the upper minors to have the core of the big league team setup for the next 3-5 years like this: [pre]Player 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 C Pina TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 1B Thames 5.0M 6.0M 7.5M 2B Kipnis 13.5M 14.5M 2.5M buyout 3B Shaw TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 SS Arcia TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 OF Yelich 7.0M 9.7M 12.5M 14.0M 15.0M OF Cain 13.0M 14.0M 15.0M 16.0M 17.0M OF Braun 19.0M 18.0M 16.0M 4.0M buyout C Vogt 3.1M ARB3 1B Aguilar TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 IF Villar 2.5M ARB2 ARB3 IF Sogard 2.4M UT Perez 2.0M ARB2 ARB3 OF Broxton TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 Player 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 SP Archer 6.2M 7.5M 8.2M 8.2M SP Salazar 5.0M ARB3 ARB4 SP Nelson 3.7M ARB2 ARB3 SP Anderson 4.2M 6.0M 8.5M 9.5M SP Davies TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 SP Chacin 8.0M 6.0M CL Knebel 3.7M ARB2 ARB3 ARB4 RP Hader TC TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 RP Albers 2.5M 2.5M RP Logan 1.9M 4.1M RP Barnes TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3 RP Jeffress 1.7M 3.2M 4.3M[/pre]

Thanks for the clarification, that's great news!

Is Haudricourt wrong on this? I've seen him post this a couple times including once that this is what the league informed the Brewers, but it seems to contradict what I've seen elsewhere, including here where a poster posted the rule on this which makes it sound like we lose our 3rd highest pick, not the 3rd rounder...

My guess is a little more than that. He's a slight upgrade over Jared Hughes. He was awful for the White Sox in 2016 but rebounded well in 2017 and other than that season, he's been good since 2012. His name did come up in a thread somewhere when all the relievers had been getting gobbled up for big bucks. Rosenthal confirmed that it's 2/$5M

We have it on good authority that Darvish is not coming to Milwaukee and will sign with the Cubs. Or so I've been told. Point Beer, I think that makes a lot of sense if we think we're still in the running. Or it could be simply waiting on any FA offers we have out there and any of those could be held up waiting to see what happens with Darvish as well. No matter what info we've heard to this point, things change. If Yu wasn't sure about the Brewers being competitive or not, they certainly put their money where there mouth was last week after we were told he was going to the Cubs. And there's still been no word indicating he's for sure going to the Cubs. Perhaps we made him think a little harder on it at least. I think regardless, I'm more worried about him going to the Cubs than I am about him not going to the Brewers. I'm not holding my breath, Yu would be an amazing add to our rotation, but I trust DS is going to improve the rotation whether we get him or not. I just don't want the Cubbies also making an equal or even better addition to their rotation at the same time. *grinds teeth*

I'm not enthused about adding someone like Corbin, but I'm surprised his WAR for last year calculates to a 2.9 and his ERA+ was a 119 (basically the same as Zach Davies on both accounts): 4.03 ERA 4.08 FIP 1.42 WHIP Seems pretty mediocre-to-bad, but I guess getting in 190 innings in the NL West at that rate is fairly productive. Still as others have said, if we're adding more pitchers that are going to knock young guys out of the 4-5 spots in the rotation, I'd rather they were at least clear upgrades to the 3 veterans who will be starting the year in the rotation.

Wow, tough crowd here! Haha. Did people even read the original post or did everyone just jump on it because of the title? He didn't bring it up to say he thinks either is in immediate danger and clearly framed it as expectations in years, which in an offseason where we just made a couple bold moves seems fair to wonder about. Personally, I think the Yelich trade and Cain signing does put some expectations in place for them to get to the playoffs sooner than later, otherwise you would have rolled with the prospects and seen where they got us first. So I think your timeframes are about right. If they go the next two seasons without getting into the playoffs, I think Counsell starts feeling some heat, and if it's three seasons you gotta start questioning the moves Stearns' has made at that point. All that said, I'm very high on DS and CC and I think MA is too, so I don't anticipate it getting to that very soon.

Uh oh, lol: [sarcasm]Game changer.[/sarcasm] Can you imagine that lineup though, lol.