brewerfan82
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Everything posted by brewerfan82
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I would think it means they're rotated in at first as well then. Against righties you might see 3B Shaw, 2B Schoop, 1B Moose, RF Thames, and against lefties 3B Villar, 2B Schoop, 1B Aguilar, LF Braun. As well as many other combinations as guys get days off.
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I'll go with Gausman. If nothing else, I'm just super curious to see how different his results will be: - Moving from the O's worst defense in MLB (-81 DRS) to the Brewer's best defense in MLB (+83 DRS) - Moving from the AL East (w/ DH & Red Sox and Yankees) to the NL Central (w/o DH and no top 2 records in MLB teams) - Moving from the O's coaching/pitching development to the Brewers w/ DJ I also like that he's got a little more control than a rental or even a Wheeler
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That's all true, but I guess my point is that they don't *need* to take the best package they're offered now if it's not what they want. If they're offered a package that's equal to what they think they can get this offseason, then yes, they should probably avoid some risk and take it, but I wouldn't accept even that until the final minutes of the deadline tomorrow. The problem is no one really knows what's being offered at this point. It's hard to hold it against them if they don't make a trade in the next 28 hours when you don't even know what they've turned down. They have all the leverage to say "we want player X and if you're not willing to include him, we're not going to accept something we don't feel good about and we'll hold onto our star player til the offseason". Especially if the Nats are the only real player for him right now, a team that's in limbo and possibly on the verge of rebuilding so they're going to be very hesitant to give up those top prospects, waiting til the offseason could definitely net them a better package than whatever they're being offered now.
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They can ask for whatever they want, they still have 2 full years of control of him past this year. If the Nats fall out of the bidding, they can just wait til the offseason when they can still ask for a king's ransom and more teams will be willing to shuffle their rosters to do it. As long as they don't wait til the trading deadline of his final year (*cough* Orioles), they're going to get a massive package for the guy.
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If they can grab a catcher that's decent vs LHP (ie. Ramos is .345/.482/.826 career vs LHP and .356/.593/.949 2018 vs. LHP) and Villar can return to the lineup (.325/.434/.759 career vs. LHP and .352/.540/.892 2018 vs. LHP) the lineup against lefties will look significantly better. -
Still supports his argument that you're making over the top statements that aren't backed up by actual facts. Career vs. LHP Villar: .325/.434/.759 Murphy: .317/.404/.722 2018 vs. LHP Villar: .352/.540/.892 Murphy: .296/.292/.588
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Halladay was before but only by like a week. Who can name the perfect game pitcher from the White Sox in 2012? Who can name the perfect game pitcher from the As in 2010? The white Sox guy was a big Tampa draft pick. Humber? No idea on the Oakland guy. Braden? Seems like that should've been longer ago. You're correct. The Galarraga game was June 2, 2010. Dallas Braden was May 9th that year (and Halladay tossed one on May 29th as well). Humber (April 21, 2012) and Cain (June 12, 2012) were the next two, and the last perfect game came later that same year by a guy in Seattle, not Oakland.
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Can't wait for a 3B Aguilar, SS Arcia, 2B Shaw, 1B Braun infield. I can only imagine what Arcia would be thinking looking around at his defensive partners there, lol.
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Ok you still haven't explained why both would cost more. Mostly just speculation. Looking at Gausman currently he is a #3 type pitcher you are basically gambling on him making a huge turnaround from what he is in Baltimore. While Schoop is hot that doesn't take away the fact that he strikes out at about 20% of the time and he walks less than Villar and Arcia. Think about that for a moment Schoop walks less than Arcia. Do you really think Schoop is worth that much just because he has a hot bat and has team control left? Obviously Machado's the more valuable player for the rest of the year, but the team control is a huge difference. ZiPS has Schoop at 1.0 WAR for the remainder of the season and Gausman at 0.8 WAR, while Machado is 1.9 WAR. So you're getting about the same amount of WAR for this year, but then you get another full season from Schoop and two additional full seasons from Gausman. It's far from perfect math, but it shouldn't be that unreasonable to expect 3 2/3 seasons of Schoop and Gausman over 3 playoff runs to cost more than 1/3 of a season of Machado over 1 playoff run.
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It's just semantics. "Blown away" means "we don't have to trade him now so you're going to have to overpay to get him". The overpay is relative to what the guy's worth, so it doesn't matter if it's used with an average player or a superstar player.
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While a TOR starter would be really nice, I think at this point I'm hoping we hold onto our top 10 prospects or so and use 40-man crunch players to swing deals for Gibson + Dozier/Escobar and Ramos. It wouldn't be the sexiest of deadlines, but those additions plus hoping Arcia can find his swing while providing ++ defense would make for a really, really solid team the rest of the year. CF Cain 2B Dozier/Escobar# OF Yelich* 1B Aguilar 3B Shaw* OF Braun/Thames* C Ramos/Pina SS Arcia SP Gibson SP Anderson SP Chacin SP Guerra SP Peralta/Miley* CL Knebel RP Soria RP Hader* RP Jeffress RP Burnes RP Albers RP Jennings* RP Williams/Barnes/Woodruff
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I don't really understand the reports of interest in Harvey, unless Stearns really does look into *every* possibility. Even with his "resurgence" with the Reds, he only has 3 quality starts in 13 games. If we could stash him in the minors for depth or convert him to a relief role, maybe he'd be useful, but you know he's just going to throw a fit if we did either of those things. Obviously he's a guy with a ton of talent and maybe the staff sees something they think they can fix, but he seems more like a Spring Training invite type of player at this point than someone you want to mess with going into a playoff push, especially with the chemistry concerns. No thanks.
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Still anybody's game.
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Stearns for Syndergaard
brewerfan82 replied to Scott.fossum's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
You can if the "few words out of place" literally makes the "news" completely fake. Which is what he did. He did the equivalent of changing "there are asteroids in space" to "an asteroid is headed towards Earth." There is a huge gap between "the Brewers have discussed certain players", which is a pretty insignificant statement, and "the Brewers have offered certain players", which is a very significant statement. It was pretty bad and irresponsible. -
Yeah Bowden literally wrote that the players had been "discussed" and the writer somehow turned it into multiple references of the Brewers "offering" those players in his article. Huuuuuuuuge difference, misleading, irresponsible, and just plain incorrect.
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"Brewers offer for Machado includes Corbin Burnes" -- "According to Jim Bowden, the Milwaukee Brewers have a hefty package submitted to the Baltimore Orioles for Manny Machado." -- "Bowden reports that Milwaukee is offering number two prospect Corbin Burnes, outfielder Keon Broxton and shortstop Orlando Arcia for Machado." -- These are all inaccurate (or at least not what the source indicates)
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Considering some of the ridiculous hauls rentals have returned in recent history, I'd be pretty amazed to get away without losing any of Woodruff, Brown, Burnes, Peralta, or Hiura. I think you can then turn around and package one of Burnes/Peralta along with one of Woodruff/Brown and a couple other pieces for a controllable TOR pitcher and still be in pretty decent shape holding onto Hiura, Burnes or Peralta, Woodruff or Brown, and your new starter over the next few seasons.
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Sogard Pre-MIL (through age 29 season): 1331 PAs, .239/.295/.313/.609 Saladino Pre-MIL (through age 28 season): 863 PAs, .231/.281/.330/.610 I would only be a fraction of a bit less surprised to see Saladino continue his success as I would have been with Sogard. Definitely wouldn't count on it, but if it does continue, I'd much rather bank on him as a super utility than as a starter.
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Everyone *wants* Machado, it's the price for a rental that is the sticking point. And you just made that point by seemingly saying you wouldn't give up Brown, Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, or Ortiz...I don't know that there's a package we could give up then to get him. Unless you want to deal them Hiura...
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Jesús Aguilar -- What do we have here?
brewerfan82 replied to Bulldogboy's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Yep, at that point if he's still mashing enough you can offer the QO (or whatever's in place at that time) and either get a draft pick or have him for one more year into his age 33 season. Or if he's not worth enough to offer a QO, you either let him walk or make a play for him for less, but probably no need to extend a guy into his mid-30's regardless. The way age is discounted, you'd likely get him as cheap or cheaper at that point than whatever you offer in an extension anyways. -
I think this is dead on and why you only do Machado if it doesn't involve Peralta or Burnes (or Hiura), because you're going to need at least one of those pitchers (if not both, plus a ton more) to get a controllable top of the rotation starter as well. I can stomach losing the high end prospect pitching depth we have if it gets us controllable MLB pitching talent to go along with our current controllable, already pretty decent rotation pieces. Hiura I don't want to lose in any deal as he fills such a needed hole in the organization right now.
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Assuming it's a crapshoot once you're in the playoffs, after the initial Wild Card game, the remaining 8 teams would each have a 12.5% to win the World Series, which means the Wild Card teams each have half that chance at 6.25%. Most projection systems still see the Cubs as the division favorite, so *if* they make it to the playoffs, most systems see it as a Wild Card team. So stick them closer to that 6.25% spot *if* they make the playoffs and *if* all teams are equal. Add in there's a 20% chance they don't even make the playoffs, and add in the fact that most systems see them as one of the weaker teams if they do make it, 4% doesn't seem too far off. Now... add in Machado, Realmuto, and a starting pitcher and I wonder how far that rises.
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No need to get worked up and condescending about people dreaming. They don't need you to save them from their own expectations. If you think it's ridiculous to consider and it's frustrating to you, move on to another thread. Now... LET'S GET THIS MANNY DEAL DONE!!!
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Totally agree that every game matters, but I think CC's doing what he thinks he needs to do to make sure we have our best chance to win in games later in the season as well and I think we'll have to just agree to disagree that sitting one player is "throwing the game". We've got a pitcher going that's 4-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last 9 starts and a lineup that includes OPS's of 1.157, .900, .845, .807, .786, and .783 against righties in the past 38 games (super hand picked timeframes, but still true and relevant). Not to mention we have a weapon in Aguilar to come off the bench whenever CC wants later in the game. I think there's still an okay chance we can take this one.
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Also seems like you need to read closer when I said to give him a day off when Cain is back. I didnt see any post that said Aguilar should never be out of the lineup Didn't miss that, just curious if the timing of one player's day off was the only issue you (and others) are upset about. It's a long season, we have a deep bench with lots of guys that are going to need to be contributors if we're going to maintain this success, I just find it hard to be upset (or even irked) about a single player being in or out of the lineup at this point. That said, what else is there to complain about in an in-game thread before the game's even started? Let's get this game started! Go Crew!
