JonnyLungs
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Everything posted by JonnyLungs
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Take everything you've talked about and the fact the Harden can't finish six innings on average in a start, and you've basically already got a reliever that teams continue to trot out as a starter. I will also echo the question of whether WAR considers the issue of bullpen wear and tear when a starter consistently runs up over 100 pitches by the fifth and sixth inning and has to be taken out. Harden's numbers may look sexy when looked at with tunnel vision but when you put them into their proper context he seems like a very frustrating pitcher that is probably best suited for the bullpen
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I don't see why small market teams can't use free agency to fill in holes with the likes of Randy Wolf. Obviously small market teams will have a hard time competing for superstars. Superstars are what need to be grown from within. Free agency can be a valuable tool for picking up players like Randy Wolf that are complimentary pieces but still very solid players. I know as Brewer fans we have this fascination with scrap heap finds and that is how teams should operate when chasing 70 wins. Scrap heap players are still important obviously and should be sought out at all times, but continually relying on them and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle seems a bit foolish to me when there are solid options like Randy Wolf available for a reasonable amount of years and money. I know the Twins get pumped up by some as an example of how small market teams should operate without giving guys like Wolf that kind of money. Does anybody remember them paying Livan Hernandez $5 million? Sidney Ponson? Joe Crede? Sure, it's a lot of one year contract but they still pay a fair amount of money each year to bring in veterans that they will ultimately discard because they stink. At least with Wolf, we've got a pretty darn solid pitcher that may or may not regress instead of paying guys that we all know stink to come in and hope they somehow play well.
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One thing I'd note, and I know you are speaking of Harden/Bedard being in addition to Wolf/Garland but I've seen others clamoring for Harden/Bedard as alternatives to Wolf/Garland due to their ace potential. Last year, Harden averaged 5.4 innings per start, and the year before 5.92 innings per start. Bedard only has one season (2007) where he averaged over 6 innings per start. The kind of high intensity, high strikeout, slightly high walk rate type of pitcher that Bedard and Harden are lead to higher pitch counts and lower innings per start. Wolf, for comparison's sake averaged about 6 1/3 innings per start last year, up from being around 5.75 in 2008. Before Wolf's injuries, he was easily above six innings per game and seems to be working back to that type of endurance now that he has been healthy for a few years. Since this is a Garland thread, he's been above 6 innings per start as far as I cared to look back. Point being, and others have made it too, bullpen overuse hurt the Brewers last year and I don't think Harden and Bedard have the track record of being pitchers that can regularly go deep into games due to their max effort styles. I would absolutely love to have Harden or Bedard in addition to Randy Wolf but signing either of those guys to be cornerstones of the rotation outside of Yo and hoping they will give us over 200 innings is highly wishful thinking if you ask me. Then we'll be dealing with bullpen burnout once again.
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I don't think he is working backwards at all. I'd rather target the better pitcher first, and Wolf is the better pitcher. Wolf Career K/9: 7.4 Garland Career K/9: 4.7 Wolf 2009 K/9: 6.7 Garland 2009 K/9: 4.8 Wolf Career K/BB: 2.29 Garland Career K/BB: 1.62 Wolf 2009 K/BB: 2.76 Garland 2009 K/BB: 1.79 HR/9 is a wash for both players in terms of career and last year. I don't think Garland is a bad pitcher by any means, but I see more Jeff Suppan (career K/BB is 1.62 also!) in Jon Garland than I do Randy Wolf. Wolf is the better pitcher and he will deservedly get more money. I'd rather go after the better pitcher even if he costs a little more.
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Likewise, most of Wolf's career norms were accumulated in hitter friendly Citizen's Bank Park and Veteran's Stadium. I don't necessarily like three years but if you refuse to go three years on a pitcher, you'll never get anybody to sign that is worthwhile. As for the trade market, I'm not sure the Brewers have the prospects to get anything even of Wolf's caliber without damaging the system too much. Wolf has very solid peripherals. When I compare Randy Wolf's potential contract and performance to the performance of guys like Barry Zito and Mike Hampton back in the day, I'd say Wolf is actually a bargain at what he'll be getting. Obviously cherry picking some extreme examples there. I don't like to see theoretical 65 win teams paying top dollar chasing that 70th win. But when you've got a solid, but not-quite-there team like the Brewers you've got to take a few chances. Stringing together a bunch of has-beens and never will be's and hoping for the best isn't a way to operate a baseball team that hopes to compete.
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Well, I somebody stole my tree stand and to make matters worse, somebody shot one of my dogs. My two dogs have a tendency to chase deer so I did the responsible thing and locked them up a few weeks before season. I kept them in an old chicken coop where they have some room to move around and go outside. Naturally, they decided to break out on opening morning of hunting and chase deer. All I know is that only one of them came back. People around here will shoot dogs that chase deer so I pretty well know what happened.
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So I've been hunting out of the same portable stand for years now in our family woods in the Baraboo Bluffs. Saturday morning I went up there and even though my stand is so easy to find, I simply could not find it. I walked around the same area for an hour before finally giving up and sitting against a tree that had fallen (incidentally which was the tree my old stand was nailed into). I knew I put my stand near the tree which I was sitting against, but it was nowhere to be found. Finally my suspicions were confirmed when I found a tree which had strap marks on it where my stand had been strapped to the tree for years. Some low life walked into my woods and stole my tree stand. Some people are just greasy. I'll leave it at that to avoid cursing.
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Are you sure you read that right in the Haudricourt blog? The one I'm reading says he feels it's very unlikely that Sheets will be back and suggests he'll sign with Texas.
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Is this for real? Wow. Why??? That is.... well I don't want to curse here.
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Pot found in Tim Lincecum's car
JonnyLungs replied to Cracked Bat Collector's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I hope he hasn't given all the money he's made in his career to his posse like some have said Jeremy Jeffress probably has. -
I would at least give Randy Wolf a phone call before I'd start looking at Washburn or Doug Davis.
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63 innings isn't a very large sample I admit, but he also gave up 6 home runs in in 18 innings last year for Boston. That makes 17 home runs allowed in 63 career innings. That's a pretty alarming rate. He's got a 32% groundball rate this year, so I think major league hitters are just a lot more capable of hitting him harder obviously. That said, he's not a horrible choice as a 12th guy. Without digging to deep, I have a feeling he has been fortunate more guys haven't been on base when he's given up the gopher balls.
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Suppan has spent time on the DL in each of the past few seasons, has he not?
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I'm extremely uncomfortable with the rate at which Chris Smith gives up home runs. 11 HR allowed in 45 innings equals a HR rate of 2.2 HR/9. That's easily the worst of any Brewers reliever that has put up any amount of innings. Don't get me wrong, Chris Smith is a perfect guy to earn frequent flyer miles between Nashville and Milwaukee, but relying on him could be a big mistake. Now whether that would affect trading Coffey or not is doubtful, but I just hope Smith isn't penciled in as a cog in the 2010 bullpen.
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Just like Darryl Kile did because he was a weed smoker?
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I don't think it's as hard to prove as you think. Hardy after last season, coming off an excellent season and having two service years left has a higher value than Hardy coming off a horrible year and two service years left. If he rebounds next year, his service time left will degrade that value somewhat and even more the knowledge that he can lay an egg over the course of a whole season. The only way I could see his value exceeding the value he had last offseason is if he signs a very cheap three year deal after he hits free agency and plays extremely well in his first year. I just wrote this whole post realizing I was talking about trade value and you are probably thinking about player value. In which case, you are correct. But I wonder if the original quote was talking about trade value and not player value to a team? That's the way I saw it in which case I think you are misunderstanding what you quoted.
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Could somebody please explain to me how Dusty Baker managed to sneak his way into the Brewers' dugout?
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How long of a leash would you give Suppan?
JonnyLungs replied to DougJones43's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
My biggest problem with Suppan was the he at least used to eat up plenty of innings. Now he's not even doing that. -
Looper never had a very good K rate and his BB/9 and HR/9 have both got significantly worse this year. Couple that with the fact that he is going to be 35 years old next year and I'd definitely pass on him. And I definitely don't want to guarantee a rotation spot for Jeff Suppan, either. He's had health problems the past two years and will also be 35 years old next year. We need to move on from these mediocre 35 year old pitchers that don't have very good control. Old pitchers with poor stuff decline and break down (minus those with impeccable control which Suppan obviously doesn't have). If you're going to look for a guy in the Suppan/Looper mold, I'd rather look at a younger guy similar to Ross Ohlendorf (not Ohlendorf himself but somebody similar). At least a 27 year old has some upside and less of a risk of decline. If you're going to go into next season with largely the same rotation, depth will still be an issue. Instead of having guys like Mike Burns as your 6th guy, you'll have a different clown with a different name that still stinks. Depth was the problem with this year's rotation, but it wasn't the depth at the back end. It was the depth at the front end. It sure looks like depth at the back end was the problem but by virtue of having a weak front rotation, the back end got completely exposed.
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I don't enjoy watching Mike Burns pitch, that is for sure.
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My favorite is when blogs (not naming any names here) littered with spelling/grammatical errors blast Haudricourt/Witrado for their own English errors.
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When is the right time to sit Kendall??
JonnyLungs replied to Weirdos19's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The one redeeming quality that Kendall has been touted for is his ability to call a game. Well, that ability certainly hasn't helped all that much this year. Whether that is Kendall's fault or not is in the eye of the beholder but the pitching staff has been absolutely atrocious. Mike Rivera has absolutely no upside so they may as well stick Salome in there whether he throws down the wrong amount of fingers or not. The pitcher still has the initiative to shake him off. But it doesn't really matter what they throw when they throw it right down Wisconsin Ave. -
I'd have to think this is the case unless Doug Melvin is on the other line with Dayton Moore of the Kansas City Royals about to send Bill Hall to KC.......
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No, I'm not calling for McClung or Villanueva to be DFA'd but I think one more solid reliever in the Todd Coffey mold would be absolutely terrific. Chris Smith seems all right on the surface but 6 HR in 23.1 innings scares me. He's given up 7 total runs and 6 HR. Once there are a few guys on base when he gives up the HR his ERA will rise accordingly. Now if we're going to look at acquiring somebody to push Villanueva and McClung into lower leverage roles, we'd need to be getting somebody that is, you know, actually better than them. Danys Baez is available, but how much of an upgrade would that be, if at all? Taking a look at MLB Trade Rumor's Relief Pitcher Trade Candidates, I'm not sure what would be a realistic option for the Crew, or if there is anything else not listed that may be worth looking into. A lot of the guys possibly worth trading for such as George Sherrill are under team control for more than just this year (in the case of Sherrill, 2011). That would drive their prices up, obviously. So, I will pose the question to you all. Is there a possible fit out there? Or maybe we can even find another Todd Coffey like last year on the scrap heap?
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I'd be a lot more concerned if Yo was eclipsing 120 pitches with any amount of frequency. He's come close, but you also have to look at the stress of the pitches. As it stands, I'm not all that concerned.