jay87shot

I would be down with getting a starter, however my guess is that the Marlins want a lot more then Mitchell for Cabrera. Cabrera was a top 50 prospect and turned in a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts. Mitchell was good last year but my guess is that he barely sneaks into the top 100 on a few lists this offseason. The Marlins wanted a package with 3 solid pieces for Pablo Lopez and Cabrera is more valuable in my opinion. Trevor Rogers for Mitchell seems like more fair deal which I would waffle on and probably pass. I would have said Urias might have made sense however they signed Segura for 3rd. Rowdy to the Fish could make sense, if we signed Mancini or had a secondary trade (Yandy Diaz) If we were to get a Marlins starter I think trading Lauer would make worlds of sense. Say Mitchell, Toro, and Logan Henderson for Cabrera (still a massive steal) Then trade Lauer to Balt. and for Coby Mayo and Kyle Bradish (long man, stuff would play up in the pen) Sign a vet OF like Brian Anderson who can play the corners OF, 3B, and maybe even a little 1st or 2nd if need be. I think that wouldn't be to shabby. Still think Cabrera will take a 2nd bigger piece.

I would be down with getting a starter, however my guess is that the Marlins want a lot more then Mitchell for Cabrera. Cabrera was a top 50 prospect and turned in a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts. Mitchell was good last year but my guess is that he barely sneaks into the top 100 on a few lists this offseason. The Marlins wanted a package with 3 solid pieces for Pablo Lopez and Cabrera is more valuable in my opinion. Trevor Rogers for Mitchell seems like more fair deal which I would waffle on and probably pass. I would have said Urias might have made sense however they signed Segura for 3rd. Rowdy to the Fish could make sense, if we signed Mancini or had a secondary trade (Yandy Diaz) If we were to get a Marlins starter I think trading Lauer would make worlds of sense. Say Mitchell, Toro, and Logan Henderson for Cabrera (still a massive steal) Then trade Lauer to Balt. and for Coby Mayo and Kyle Bradish (long man, stuff would play up in the pen) Sign a vet OF like Brian Anderson who can play the corners OF, 3B, and maybe even a little 1st or 2nd if need be. I think that wouldn't be to shabby. Still think Cabrera will take a 2nd bigger piece.

We really haven't put a ton of resources/draft position into catcher. It seems like we draft a ton of catchers in the 4th-10th range. The success rates in those rounds aren't great add in a more difficult position and I expect less. I think we did fail miserably with Jacob Nottingham, he seemed to have a lot of upward momentum and was trash when we got him. We seemed to be doing well with Mario but the lost 2020 season wrecked his momentum.

All these predictions really pussyfoot around and play the safe ground. Just look at the sb totals. Yeli and Mitchell should both be around 30+ with the new rules, hitting leadoff all year, and a full year (mitchell). I do like looking these over but they predict to much (triples really) and don't take risks. A few notes 1)no way Huira gets 250 pa 2) I don't think there enough OF starts unless Huira starts are LF. 3)Winker is not going to play enough defense to be worth -12 runs 4) Yeli isn't going to lead the team in rbi, leadoff all the way. 5) Our leading hitter will hit over .250, with no shift, young guys, and additions we should improve our team ba more than this. 6) Contreras will be better than there projections, I can see some regression in a category or 2 but not in every aspect of the game. 7)Frelich, Weimer, and Miller will have more than 300 combined pa's. I expect Miller to be the Peterson role over Toro, and at least one our young OF option will get a much longer look than 150 abs.

3 team trade (Arnold's new thing) We get Yandy Diaz, Red Sox get Eric Lauer, Ray's get Blaze Jordan, Shane Drohan, Logan Henderson Trade Rowdy and Russ Smith to Marlins for Dax Fulton Sign Danny Duffy 1/6 with incentive to 12 Sign Aroldis Chapman 1/12 incentive to 15 Frelich/Weimer and Turang come up around May to save year of control send down Perkins and Toro/Brosseau/Miller 1)LF Yeli 2)1B Diaz 3)DH Winker 4)C Contreras 5)SS Adames 6)CF Mitchell 7) 3B Urias 8)RF Taylor 9)2B Miller/Toro/Brosseau Rotation= Burnes, Woody, Peralta, Duffy, Houser, Ashby Pen=Williams, Chapman, Bush, Cousins, Payames, Milner, Strez/Guerra/Varland/Junk/Perguaro/etc. You could trade Winker instead of Rowdy but I would guess we would get very little in return. Fulton would be a good get and could be a good option layer in the year. Duffy and Ashby piggy back to start the year and then go 6 man rotation after a few times through the rotation. C: William Contreras ($0.70M) 1B: Yandy Diaz ($5.30M) 2B: Abraham Toro ($1.40M) 3B: Luis Urias ($4.30M) SS: Willy Adames ($9.20M) LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M) CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M) DH: Jesse Winker ($8.25M) Bench OF: Blake Perkins ($0.70M) Utility: Owen Miller ($.7M) Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1M) Backup C: Victor Caratini ($2.80M) RP: Joel Payamas ($.7M) 2B: Kolten Wong (trade to Seattle) ($1.75M) RF: Taylor ($0.70M) SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.40M) SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M) SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M) SP4: Danny Duffy ($6M) SP5: Adrian Hauser ($3.60M) CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M) RP: Aroldis Chapman ($12M) RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M) RP: Jake Cousins ($.7M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.10M) RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.00M) RP: Guerra/Strez/Varland ($.7M) Payroll is 7.38% under budget

I was thinking similar recently with Turang in AAA and Frelich as well. I could see us going Miller, Toro, and Brosseau at 2B (or 3B and Urias 2B). The more is think about it, it makes sense to get an extra year out of them. If we keep Frelich in AAA FOR a month+ until we get that extra year we can go Taylor in RF, Mitchell CF, Perkins 4th OF and still have Winker as a 5th OF when needed (and not in game DH).

I am sure we will see all different kinds of things to shift while still playing within the new rules. I just think that a guy like Rowdy benefits from say 5-10 balls he hit to the left side and lost maybe 10-15 balls he hit hard to the right (guess-timating). Those 5 extra hits are like .10 BA, he can easily make a few small approach changes and get back to the .270 or so he hit with us in 21.

Forgot about Toro, if we can ekkk out a little of what he has been in AAA the is surely a Jace Peterson in there

Maybe Matt McClain and a smaller piece for Ruiz, McClain isn't my favorite prospect but it would work. I like Encarnacion-Strand as well maybe if the move a prospect to 3B CES could be an option and give us a powerhitting CI. What about McClain and CES for Ruiz and Small. We get 2 bats for a mostly blocked OF and Small. Reds move IF for a high end OF who can start today and a 5th pitcher with some upside.

I wouldnt mind Noelvi Marte and would probably stay away from Arroyo. Mitchell/Ruiz and a 2nd prospect for Marte would work for me. I would guess that the Reds would demand Weimer or Frelich, which might work depending on secondary parts. Ruiz and Black (or a1chose of P) for Marte Mitchell and Hendry Mendez for Marte Weimer and Carlos Rodriguez (of) for Marte Frelich for Marte straight up.

I think Rowdy, Yeli, and Winker will benefit a bit but I am not thinking it will be a huge benefit. Yeli might beat out a couple more IF singles and Winker/Tellez may get a regular 1B back that the deep 2B caught. Overall I would say maybe 10 to 20 batting points. Yeli still needs to lift the ball a bit better and not miss so many "meat" pitches. I feel like Rowdy tried to play hero ball to much and hit a ton of warning track balls he could have just as easy laced for a 1B or 2B. No guesses on Winker.

Renfroe is nowhere near a 9 figure guy. Nimmo had a 5 WAR year and has a career 131 ops+, Renfroe is a perennial 2-3 WAR player with a career 111 ops+. Renfroe will get around the 3 year contract Mitch Haniger got.

I can't see us after an OF, like mentioned before Varsho would be interesting as a part time cather and Wisconsin guy but I can't see anything working out.

I can't see us after an OF, like mentioned before Varsho would be interesting as a part time cather and Wisconsin guy but I can't see anything working out.

Gary Sanchez wouldn't be the worst especially with our defensive team helping him, I wouldn't give him a second guaranteed year though. I'd go like 1/6 or 7 with a 2nd option and as small of buyout as possible. I saw somewhere (can't remember the source sorry) that the A's wanted Nootbaar, Donovan, and Gordon Graffeco for Murphy. That would seem to be simlar to maybe Turang, Ashby, and between Taylor/Ruiz value for us, so I am probably writing Murphy out of my options at C. I think Korey Lee or Yainer Diaz could be interesting options if Houston signs or trade for a catcher. Both are young controllable high potential catchers who could be had for what I would guess is a reasonable price. The Astros could also use OF help, making this a perfect swap scenerio. Say Ruiz for Diaz straight up or maybe Mitchell for Lee and a young reliever/decent pitching prospect.

Gary Sanchez wouldn't be the worst especially with our defensive team helping him, I wouldn't give him a second guaranteed year though. I'd go like 1/6 or 7 with a 2nd option and as small of buyout as possible. I saw somewhere (can't remember the source sorry) that the A's wanted Nootbaar, Donovan, and Gordon Graffeco for Murphy. That would seem to be simlar to maybe Turang, Ashby, and between Taylor/Ruiz value for us, so I am probably writing Murphy out of my options at C. I think Korey Lee or Yainer Diaz could be interesting options if Houston signs or trade for a catcher. Both are young controllable high potential catchers who could be had for what I would guess is a reasonable price. The Astros could also use OF help, making this a perfect swap scenerio. Say Ruiz for Diaz straight up or maybe Mitchell for Lee and a young reliever/decent pitching prospect.

I like Arraez a bunch but agree that I wouldn't give up top end talent for him. I wouldn't do much more than Lauer and non top 10 prospect for him and the Twins will get much more than that. I am guessing he would go to 3rd if we did deal for him.

Both are soft throwing lefties that don't strike guys out, they are older and not really late inning options. I agree Bleier is better but not much.

I would love Yandy, however I feel he would be best at 1st. I doubt we would want Blier especially for a solid prospect like Black, he really isn't much different than Suter who we cut for the same salary.

I would be happy with this, I doubt Kimbrel signs for 3.5, just on reputation he will like get 7-8.

Junk eventually Gasser, could even sign someone like Wade Miley and slide Ashby to LR/6th man with some extra cash in this scenerio.

Here's my post Wong/Renfroe blueprint. Sign Justin Turner 1/14 (team option 2 mill buyout on 14 million team option year) Turner provides a short term middle of the order option, he can also DH vs. LHP for Winker Trade Urias to Marlins for Tanner Scott and a prospect (Victor Mesa Jr.) Marlins add offense we get a high end arm and something extra Lauer and Huira to Det for Gregory Soto and a decent prospect (Wenceel Perez) We get another top tier bullpen arm and the Tigers get a dependable starter and lottery style bat. Ruiz, Small, and Feliciano to KC for MJ Melendez Melendez is blocked at C, the Royals get 3 potential pieces that wouldn't be huge for our future plans. Obviously this leaves us with some money to spend, maybe we swing a big deal at the deadline if need to. Vs rhp 1) LF Yeli 2) 3B Turner 3)1B Tellez 4)DH Winker 5)SS Adames 6)RF Mitchell 7) CF Frelich 8)C Melendez/Caratini 9)2B Turang Vs lhp 1)LF Yeli 2)3B Brousseau 3)DH Turner 4)SS Adames 5)RF Taylor 6)1B Tellez 7)C Melendez 8) CFMitchell/Frelich 9)2B Toro/Turang 1)Burnes 2)Woody 3)Peralta 4)Ashby 5) Houser CP)Williams 7th/8th)Soto, Bush, Cousins RP)Milner, Scott, Guerra/Strez LR/6th stater)Junk (4 98+ heaters potentially) C: MJ Melendez ($.7M) 1B: Rowdy Tellez ($5.30M) 2B: Turang ($0.7M) 3B: Justin Turner ($14M) SS: Willy Adames ($9.20M) LF: Christian Yelich ($22.00M) CF: Frelich ($0.70M) DH: Winker ($8.25M) Bench OF: Taylor ($2M) Utility: Brosseau ($1.4M) Utility: Toro ($1M) Backup C: Caratini ($2.8M) RF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M) SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.40M) SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M) SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M) SP4: Ashby ($1M) SP5: Adrian Hauser ($3.60M) CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M) RP: Cousins ($0.7M) RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M) RP: Tanner Scott ($.7M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.10M) RP: Guerra/Strez ($.7M) RP: Junk ($.7M) RP: Gregory Soto ($3M) Payroll is 14.35% under budget

I doubt Winker gets flipped unless you count the trade deadline during the season.

I am OK with this trade but I am a little conflicted. If Winker rebounds this can be good trade but unless Toro becomes a starter which is highly unlikely there really is no great trade or we robbed them route. The part that worries me is the reports that Winker isn't a hard worker and didn't work on improving his game last year. It should be an upgrade at DH but almost assuredly a down grade at Utl. On top of it we don't save any money.

I doubt it just because it has seemed like the FO intention to give Turang a shot at some point. Also with Yeli it would be hard to give someone else 30 million and if we did it would be Burnes or Woody before, I would think.