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jay87shot

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Everything posted by jay87shot

  1. jay87shot
    Not that I know much or do a lot of scouting in advance of the draft here are a few guys that interest me based on mlb.com scouting reports and rankings. P Thomas White Big left-handed HS pitcher, mid 90's heater and lots of room to grow. SS Matt Shaw He is probably one of the safest picks as far as bats go, he may be iffy to stay at short but would be a great 2B if nothing else. Looks like Tyler Black with more power and speed. P Bryce Eldridge 1B/RHP A high school 6'7" kid who throws mid-90's, I like that he can play 1st and pitch. My guess is he has more value as a P and you would start him there and maybe bat occasionally the 1st few years. P Travis Sykora RHP Another big 6'6" 220 pound high schooler with big heat. It seems like our front office likes tall pitchers based on the past few drafts. C/SS/OF Cole Carigg Talk about utility star, managers wet dream. He has advanced hit, speed, and defense tools all around the field. Maybe like a Turang style player who can catch and more OF experience. I always like reaching on a guy like this and signing below slot and then finding the highest ceiling arm later with the saved money.
  2. jay87shot
    baseball reference had him at 5.1 WAR, oWAR 3.7, dWAR 2.2, and my guess would be -0.8 baserunning (couldn't find). I think fangraph just puts there offensive war on the stats page if that is what you looked at but I could be wrong. I agree with you that I would still just go with Turang and not spend the resources on a trade and have it backfire.
  3. jay87shot
    My guess is that panning out would mean being high quality starters. I think all have a relatively high floor because all can run and play good defense. If any of those guys don't pan out I would think they will be like a Tyrone Taylor type player and if they pan out they will be like Lo-Cain value pre 2020. They could all excel as well and be borderline superstars. My guess/hope is one ends up like Taylor, 2 Cain's, and 1 star. I like the idea of seeing if Mitchell can play some 1st base next offseason. Frelich, Chourio, Weimer are all prototypical LF/CF/RF if reports are correct and they continue to develop fully. Mitchell could be a great 1st baseman and 4th outfielder who could swipe a ton of bags and maybe eventually hit for power.
  4. jay87shot
    My guess would be something close but less to what the D-backs got for Varsho. Both were 5ish WAR players mostly from defense with decent but not great bats. Varsho is only a year younger and both have the same control time, however Kim is owed more money. My guess would be maybe a lower top 100 prospect and 1 or 2 other decent pieces, I am sure the Pads are trying to get a good mlb ready player in arby who will help bring the salary number down but help contribute.
  5. jay87shot
    Any ideas on combining some depth pieces for a high quality piece or prospect. The Gregory Soto deal to Philly is my blueprint a couple pieces that don't have high ceilings to a club that needs some depth for a higher end piece. My package from us would include some combination of Brosseau, Huira. Toro, Miller, Small, Houser, some RP, maybe Taylor if we get an OF back. Keston, Small, and JC Mejia to KC for Scott Barlow Keston and Houser to Baltimore for Coby Mayo Keston and Small for to Wash for Tanner Rainey Any other decent ideas
  6. jay87shot
    Yeah our depth is insanely good right now. We also have a few guys that are easy releases off the 40 man if a strong deal comes around. We have 4 solid IF utility guys (Toro, Miller, Huira, Brosseau) 7 quality mlb starters with 3ish ok depth starters. Evident by the Topa trade our reliever depth is fine, we have OF talent for days and lots of catching options after Contreras and Caratini. It would have nice to maybe make a deal like the Gregory Soto deal Philly made were the sent 3 meh depth pieces for a solid bullpen piece.
  7. jay87shot
    Agreed, I would say the Marlins are assured to trade a young starter for a outfielder in the near future. With our current pitching depth I would guess there is a smaller chance it would be with us but maybe. Maybe Arbold can work some 3 team magic and sneak in a steal. Any chance the Marlins could be in on Bryan Reynolds he would make a lot of sense for them if the Pirates are off the Soto sized trade demands.
  8. jay87shot
    Agreed, I would say the Marlins are assured to trade a young starter for a outfielder in the near future. With our current pitching depth I would guess there is a smaller chance it would be with us but maybe. Maybe Arbold can work some 3 team magic and sneak in a steal. Any chance the Marlins could be in on Bryan Reynolds he would make a lot of sense for them if the Pirates are off the Soto sized trade demands.
  9. jay87shot
    Cabrera has a upper 90s fb, 93 mph change and solid curve and slider. He may have some injury history but so does Mitchell. Again, I would love to to get Cabrera for Mitchell, I just feel like the going rate for a Cabrera type pitcher is 2 Mitchell type players.
  10. jay87shot
    I would be down with getting a starter, however my guess is that the Marlins want a lot more then Mitchell for Cabrera. Cabrera was a top 50 prospect and turned in a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts. Mitchell was good last year but my guess is that he barely sneaks into the top 100 on a few lists this offseason. The Marlins wanted a package with 3 solid pieces for Pablo Lopez and Cabrera is more valuable in my opinion. Trevor Rogers for Mitchell seems like more fair deal which I would waffle on and probably pass. I would have said Urias might have made sense however they signed Segura for 3rd. Rowdy to the Fish could make sense, if we signed Mancini or had a secondary trade (Yandy Diaz) If we were to get a Marlins starter I think trading Lauer would make worlds of sense. Say Mitchell, Toro, and Logan Henderson for Cabrera (still a massive steal) Then trade Lauer to Balt. and for Coby Mayo and Kyle Bradish (long man, stuff would play up in the pen) Sign a vet OF like Brian Anderson who can play the corners OF, 3B, and maybe even a little 1st or 2nd if need be. I think that wouldn't be to shabby. Still think Cabrera will take a 2nd bigger piece.
  11. jay87shot
    I would be down with getting a starter, however my guess is that the Marlins want a lot more then Mitchell for Cabrera. Cabrera was a top 50 prospect and turned in a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts. Mitchell was good last year but my guess is that he barely sneaks into the top 100 on a few lists this offseason. The Marlins wanted a package with 3 solid pieces for Pablo Lopez and Cabrera is more valuable in my opinion. Trevor Rogers for Mitchell seems like more fair deal which I would waffle on and probably pass. I would have said Urias might have made sense however they signed Segura for 3rd. Rowdy to the Fish could make sense, if we signed Mancini or had a secondary trade (Yandy Diaz) If we were to get a Marlins starter I think trading Lauer would make worlds of sense. Say Mitchell, Toro, and Logan Henderson for Cabrera (still a massive steal) Then trade Lauer to Balt. and for Coby Mayo and Kyle Bradish (long man, stuff would play up in the pen) Sign a vet OF like Brian Anderson who can play the corners OF, 3B, and maybe even a little 1st or 2nd if need be. I think that wouldn't be to shabby. Still think Cabrera will take a 2nd bigger piece.
  12. jay87shot
    I think it might be a good idea to move Houser to the bullpen, I was reading a Dodger trade rumor that Houser would be a great add for them because he could start and then be a solid reliever once some of their big prospects are ready midway-ish through the year. https://dodgersway.com/posts/dodgers-most-realistic-brewers-trade-target-houser-woodruff-burnes Basically here is a tweet that caught my attention. Houser's heavy fastball is ideal for getting ground balls with men on and throwing less pitches could see his K rates rise. Maybe we start Ashby in the pen the 1st month or so to limit his innings a tad and then swap the 2's role. Houser only is going to make 4.5-ish million and to me we signed Ashby long team to give him a shot as a starter much like the Peralta extension. I wouldn't mind the idea of trading with the Dodgers and get 2 of there lower top 30 prospects who would still be top 15 in our system probably. Say P Kyle Hurt/Emmett Sheehan/Michael Grove and SS/2B Rayne Doncon (or other similar packages).
  13. jay87shot
    I like the idea of going to 8 divisions with 32 teams, however I would go 1 step further and do without the American and National league. You play your other 3 division teams 19 times and every other team in the league 4 times. Non division games would be 2 game series and a team would play like 8 game road trips against a different division (1 extra game needed to get to 162). The hard part would be grouping teams equally as far as payroll and market size. 1)M's, Giants, A's, Portland/Vegas 2)Angels, Dodgers, D-Backs, Pads 3)Rockies, Royals, Cards, Twins 4)Brewers, Cubs, CWS, Detroit 5) Clev., Tor, Cincy, Philly 6) Yanks, Red Sox, Nats, O's 7) Braves, Mets, Pitt, Nashville/Charlotte 8) Houston, Rangers, Rays, Miami Honestly that isn't bad but would stink for the Brewers having 3 big market teams in our division. Make it a 16 team playoffs where the #1 faces the #2 in each division and the #1 team gets all 3 games at home. Then 8 teams get seeded by record in a 5/7/7 format. No 1 game play ins but the division winner gets a big advantage in the new divisional round. Honestly nothing is perfect but it would simplify a lot of things.
  14. jay87shot
    He had some really nice years in the minors with Atl. Imo he is the same as Alexander so there is some redundancy here unless we have moves on the horizon in which Alexander is dropped.
  15. jay87shot
    I like the idea of trading Lauer now that we have Miley. He has had 2 very solid years and his FIP suggested he is due for some regression. I doubt we could package him with Urias for a solid 3rd baseman (or with Winker/Rowdy for a 1st baseman). Lauer to Arizona for Deyvison de Los Santos would be sweet. Maybe more likely for AJ Vuckovic and Ryne Nelson
  16. jay87shot
    I haven't looked at the schedule but we should be able to start at with a 5 man rotation (1st 2 times round) and maybe go back to it a couple times throughout the year when we have a couple days of in a week. With Miley on board I am thinking Lauer becomes the most likely to be traded. Miley gives us a lefty or two with Ashby in the rotation and with the prices 3/4 starters have been getting he should have good value.
  17. jay87shot
    I love this, it allows us to do a lot. This allows us to have a ton of options, we can trade Lauer or Houser if a good deal comes along, put Ashby in the pen and possible stretch him out if/when someone goes on the dl. If Ashby has a really good spring you could even put Miley in the long relief and Ashby in the rotation. At 3.5 million there isn't a huge risk for a solid vet if they can stay healthy. The 2nd year option is decent if he does have a great year.
  18. jay87shot
    Not sure if this is sarcasm, but 73 million guaranteed to a 28 year isn't screwing anyone over.
  19. jay87shot
    I think trading Keston for a decent reliever with 1 year left could work well. Jake Diekman, Amir Garrett, Jardin Garcia could be solid lefty options and I am sure there would be a handful of righty options. I am worried about our lefty pen situation, Milner was decent but is far from a sure thing to be reliable all year. After that we have nothing.
  20. jay87shot
    I did the math earlier this offseason and if Yeli is a 2 WAR player thru the end of the contract he would be around a -50-60 value. A rough estimate of Tatis (324+112/8) has Tatis at a 55-ish WAR though his contract that is a 4-5 WAR avg. My guess would be that is a bit high, even if the roids weren't a big factor in his success. Making a value on a 12 year contract of a guy who didn't play for a year and is coming of roids in some capacity is impossible.
  21. jay87shot
    What would a Tatis trade look like? The only thing that the Padres need is maybe another stater or some outfield help. Also Grisham and Kim are likely on the block. Tatis (future cash like 40 million/ 10 per each last 4 years) for Ashby, Mitchell, Black, Carlos Rodriguez (P), Hedbert Perez (I get this isn't close to fair value) I don't have a clue where Tatis would even play maybe 3rd. This could be a chance at a Nolan Arenado style steal of a trade. Tatis has grown out of favor in SD and I could see him fitting in perfectly with our young guys and looking for a low key new home. SD owes a ton to Machado, Bogearts, Tatis, and likely Soto eventually (not to mention Musgrove or other impending FA's Darvish, Snell, Hader) Trading Tatis now to extend Soto and others makes sense and we could help by giving them a couple solid pieces for the big league team and rebuild there farm system.
  22. jay87shot
    I his ba/obp went down 10 pts and slugging was down 41 pts. That would be a worse year for a young guy should be getting better. wRC+ uses stats from around the league. Urias was worse last year than 2021 no doubting it. He still had a fine year but not an extension worth year.
  23. jay87shot
    I would not extend Urias, he has not proven enough to warrant that. He hit worse this year and doesn't pass the eye test as much more than an average defender. If he was an ascending player or had 1 highly bankable skill I could get on board. Woody, Adames, Rowdy, Williams, Lauer, and Contreras all deserve extensions more/before Urias. I am fine with Urias at 3rd this year but he is not the extend early type at this point.
  24. jay87shot
    I would have loved to have gotten prospects if it was 1 good one not 3 meh guys like Renfroe. Then we could have used the money to get a 1B and put Rowdy at DH. Say Wong for Blaze Jordan and then sign Bell or Abreu depending on the timing of the trade and if either were willing to come to MIL. Maybe even an OF and Yeli to DH I am OK with the trade we made, but between 1 year of Winker and Toro there are a bunch of question marks $10 mil and a high upside prospect could solve.
  25. jay87shot
    Good point, forgot about the trade clause. I would assume if we trade Lauer than Sale would take his place. In my opinion Alexander is done Junk and Small should gets starts before him and in time Gasser. I would give up Urias and the couple non top prospects for a year of Devers and eventually a draft pick.
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