jay87shot

I doubt anyone takes a guy with 13 games of AAA experience who really has never been on a top 30 org prospect list. If he does get picked I would suspect there is a relatively high chance he gets returned.

Junk #20

Yeli went from a 1.2 to 2.7 WAR in 2022. My guess is that almost all of that is after he took over leadoff. I feel like there are way to many people making it sound like Yeli was a heaping pile of trash. Yes, he probably will never be a 7 WAR player again and worth the $26 mill per year. He is still an average-ish defense left feilder with speed and maybe a little power can come back (he did hit one 499 ft hr last year). To say that contract is worse (or could be worse) than Chris Davis is a stretch. I don't think anyone would be surprised if he hits .280 with the shift off. Yeli will be an above average player for at least 3 years and if he DH's he will be at least an average player for those 6 years. That being said it would be nice to trade him and be able to resign some of our stars. I wouldn't add him to a Woody/Burnes trade and lessen those pitchers value. Anthony Rendon would have been the only bad deal I would have considered and now that they have Renfroe so they don't need an OF. If the Nats were better Corbin or Stras could make sense (especially if Stras gets healthy) but with the Nats rebuilding that won't happen. Eventually (maybe 2 years) someone like Trevor Story might work.

I get the Mets and Rays trades are out there and wonky. But like a month ago Jansen and Lauer were both like a 14 on that btv site. Not sure how that is wrong.

I would think the Dodgers keep Lux, I would perfer Michael Busch anyway. Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot, Emmett Sheehan, Caleb Ferguson Busch would make an interesting MI combo with Turang and could fall back on 1B if it doesn't work defensively. I would start Pepiot as the 5th starter and move Ashby to a early Hader type role to at least start the year. Sheehan is a quality and imo underappreciated prospect and Ferguson provides a late inning LHP option. I would offer Willy like 5/83 (9/14 and 3/60), if he wants a bunch more years or AAV, I would be perfectly fine sending him off for a solid package (at least twice what we got for Hader).

I'd trade Burnes and Adames seperate if they both go and that way we could maximize return. Adames for Vargas, Pepiot, Barnes Burnes for Cartaya, Miller, 2 more mid level pieces. I'd want a bit more in the Woody deal maybe switch DL Hall for Bradish. If we blow it up like this may as well trade Williams as well.

Detriot wouldn't be bad, however they should be more interested in Taylor, Urias, and Huira 1st. Maybe Hauser and Wong for Soto

Good point on the climate in AA vs. high A. I was quiet positive the lower placement for Chourio would be wiser but not so sure now. I guess I am more 50-50. How many vets do you think we will add on minor league deals or camp invites who stay. I would guess a couple relief guys, a couple utility types, and maybe 1 more OF. That could play into some assignment. It seemed like we had a ton last year. Singleton, White, Dahl, Whitley, Almonte, Davis, Brothers, Harris, Kelly, Mejia, and Perdomo were all added last offseason and were AAA players (I think Mejia made the opening roster).

I am just saying that dreaming on potential that could be were they are. I am not anointing anyone. Mitchell has a lot of power, it just that his swing is not tailored for big HR numbers at all. The HR numbers don't indicate it but if you look at his body type and strength there is easily a 30 HR potential in there. If you look at Yeli through his rookie year you never would have said he has a chance to hit 44 HR. Mitchell is similar but with 20 or 30 pounds more muscle (not sure how heavy 23 yo Yeli was).

I was looking through some prospects and found 2 I really like. 1)Corey Julks 26 OF Houston. A bit of a late bloomer, his power didn't pop through until he was 25. Last year he hit .270/.350/.854 with 31 HR and 22 SB. He would seems like a better option than the guy they just signed to a mlb deal. 2) Victor Vodnik 23 Atl RP. I've been adding him as like a 4th piece in some Burnes/Adames trade to Atl. He has an upper 90's heater, decent change, and work in progress slider (similar to Javy Guerra stuff wise). He walks to many but I think this guy could be a steal.

I was reading mlbtraderumors article that mention Astudillo and thought he would make some great AAA depth as a C/utl but a guy that walks (and strikesout) as little as him makes things tough. I also saw Addison Russell on the same team as Ruiz. He had a good year in Mexico last year, maybe a signing like Singleton is Turang is in the bigs and we need a solid SS in Nashville.

Out there/different trade ideas. Don't kill me on these, just bored on black Friday. Chourio and Ruiz (and maybe a starter like Houser) to Ray's for Randy Arozereana, Tyler Glasnow, and Yandy Diaz Burnes to Mets for Jeff McNeil, David Peterson, and a prospect Lauer for Danny Jansen 1) DH Yeli 2) 1B Diaz 3) 3B McNeil 4) LF Arozereana 5) SS Wily 6)2B Wong 7)CF Frelich 8) C Jansen 9)RF Mitchell Woody, Glasgow, Peralta, Peterson, Ashby It would also leave Taylor, Rowdy, and Urias to pick up a bullpen arms or prospects. Again I wouldnt probably do either of these deals but it would drastically improve our lineup and leave our rotation strength in check. After next year I would trade Glasnow (1/23.5) and figure out the messier extend McNeil, Adames, Woody, Diaz situation.

I like the idea of Junk in the Suter role, if his stuff can play up a hair in the pen and maybe our pitching team can tweak him a bit. If he throws 93-95 with average secondary stuff he can/could throw a solid 70+ innings making a few spot start and eating up 2 or more innings when needed. I agree with most that Peguro has the most upside that power sinking heater has some nasty to it. If the staff can change/improve his delivery (kind of sling the ball slightly sidearm) and keep the movement he has a good shot as a 7th or 8th inning guy in the not to distant future. The 3rd guy is probably just an organization depth piece like Dylan File or Alec Bettinger for the next couple years.

I guess I could see him making the team if we part with Taylor and go with a 3 rookie OF and Yeli as the primary DH. I think I like Weimer's potential best out of the 4 AAA OF. Definitely a 30/30 potential guy who could win a gold glove. I would think he is 4th in line however to start with the big league club, however not by much and camp/trade could trade a lot. It is crazy to think of each of the 4 OF potential, 5 if you count Chourio. Weimer .270/.350/.850 30/30 with 5+ WAR. Frelich .310/.375. 10/40 probably 4-5 WAR depending on defense (I think stats will show him a high end lf and slightly above average cf. Ruiz .300/.355. 15/50 probably 4-5 WAR like frelich. Mitchell .280/.350/.825 20/40 maybe 30 hr potential if he improves launch angle. 4+ WAR. Chorio ??? .300/.400/.900. 30-40/30-40. 7 WAR depending on body development. It might be interesting to see if Mitchell can maybe pick up 1st base.

Renfroe was our best hitter but he was still not a solid 3/4 hitter. .255/.315/.807 29 hr 72 rbi. Is very solid but he hit .236 with runners in scoring position. For comparison Rowdy .264, Willy .301, Taylor .311, Cutch .264, Yeli .242/.429 obp, Wong .202, Urias .168. How many times did we have runners on 1st and 2nd with 0 outs and we hit into dp's or back to back k's, it seemed like an excessive amount. Getting better middle of the order bats and guys like Frelick, Turang, Ruiz, and Mitchell should drastically reduce that. I am OK with trading Wong and a pitcher if it means we can find a couple more middle of the order options to go with Willy and Rowdy.

Renfroe was our best hitter but he was still not a solid 3/4 hitter. .255/.315/.807 29 hr 72 rbi. Is very solid but he hit .236 with runners in scoring position. For comparison Rowdy .264, Willy .301, Taylor .311, Cutch .264, Yeli .242/.429 obp, Wong .202, Urias .168. How many times did we have runners on 1st and 2nd with 0 outs and we hit into dp's or back to back k's, it seemed like an excessive amount. Getting better middle of the order bats and guys like Frelick, Turang, Ruiz, and Mitchell should drastically reduce that. I am OK with trading Wong and a pitcher if it means we can find a couple more middle of the order options to go with Willy and Rowdy.

Perkins is just AAA depth, just because he sign a mlb deal doesn't mean he will make the roster. It just means we will have to use one of his options out of camp. This guy is Jonathan Davis 2.0, maybe a little power developing. The Jonathan Singleton to the 40 man is still confusing me however.

Mitchell, Lauer, and Wong is possibly a little bit light. Young all-star catchers are hard to come by and I would guess that the Jays would get a couple top 100 prospects up.

Mitchell, Lauer, and Wong is possibly a little bit light. Young all-star catchers are hard to come by and I would guess that the Jays would get a couple top 100 prospects up.

It would have been nice to get one higher end prospect or make a couple of those lotto ticket prospects but not to bad. Junk looks like Jason Alexander 2.0, Peguro maybe like a younger Gustave with some upside, and Seminaris is probably just depth.

I think it kind of depends on the true finances of the team for the next couple years. If Mark A. keeps it at $130+ I would say he is the most likely to go. If the ownership has to bring salary down I would think Burnes is the most likely to go this offseason. On the stat front, Lauer's end ERA could have been better but a start against the Rockies late in the year really hurt him (7 earned in 2 2/3). I don't know where to find it but the number of swing and misses he had on middle middle fastballs was amazing. I would definitely look to trade him while his value is high and his 2 years of control mean more. We should be able to get a near top 100 prospect for him and something else like a quality reliever or possibly a solid position player with a similar 2 years left. Lauer for Jansen would work well Lauer for Yandy Diaz Lauer for Alex Kiriloff Lauer for Jose LeClerc and a solid prospect Lauer for Scott Barlow Lauer for Mark Vientos Lauer to SF for Casey Schmidt (3B SF) and a prospect probably a bunch more good ideas

I think it kind of depends on the true finances of the team for the next couple years. If Mark A. keeps it at $130+ I would say he is the most likely to go. If the ownership has to bring salary down I would think Burnes is the most likely to go this offseason. On the stat front, Lauer's end ERA could have been better but a start against the Rockies late in the year really hurt him (7 earned in 2 2/3). I don't know where to find it but the number of swing and misses he had on middle middle fastballs was amazing. I would definitely look to trade him while his value is high and his 2 years of control mean more. We should be able to get a near top 100 prospect for him and something else like a quality reliever or possibly a solid position player with a similar 2 years left. Lauer for Jansen would work well Lauer for Yandy Diaz Lauer for Alex Kiriloff Lauer for Jose LeClerc and a solid prospect Lauer for Scott Barlow Lauer for Mark Vientos Lauer to SF for Casey Schmidt (3B SF) and a prospect probably a bunch more good ideas

I am going to role with this Twins idea for a bit. Lauer for Alex Kiriloff and PTBNL Twins continue that gathering of 3/4 pitchers, I am think of Kiriloff as a 1B, the Twins have Kepler, Buxton, Larnach, Gordon, Wallner, and Celestino in the OF and Miranda and Arreaz at 1st. Lauer for Eduoard Julien One of the biggest rising prospects after .300/.441/.490 with 17hr and 19 sb (not to mention a sensational afl. He would fit into a future 2B by the end of the year or for 2024. Lauer for Matt Canterino and Sean Mooney We get 2 younger high potential arms, I would guess the past 2 would be if we don't trade Burnes/Woody and add some solid pen/vet arm. Luis Urias for Chris Paddack and a ptbnl (quality maybe depending on Paddack health) This would be if we trade a starter or 2 and acquire a 3B. Urias would help the Twins at 3B and help protect SS a bit if Lewis gets hurt or hits a speed bump. We get a young pitcher with a little bit of a risk with some upside. Wong for Austin Martin I doubt the Twins move Polanco to 3B, SS, or trade him, but this might work if they do. Martin is buried behind Lee and Royce Lewis and we would get a former #5 pick and top 50 prospect last year for a year of Wong. Devin Williams for Simeon Woods-Richardson, Jovani Moran, and Alex Kiriloff, I know that we are highly unlikely to move Devin but in this case we get a young reliever, solid starting prospect, and a 1st baseman. This only works if we acquire a couple back end options on top of Moran.

Agreed on the rapid promotion of pitchers, in general I feel like it is easier for solid pitching to start a little higher up. It seems like earlier in the year hitting is always a bit behind so it is better mentally to start hitters low and move quicker during the year and start pitchers high and be a little more cautious in season. I wouldn't call Chourio to A+ a demotion. Yes, he played 6 games there but really only because A+ season was over. I feel like even for guy who is being pushed through quickly you want around 200 abs per level and he only had 127 (144 pa). To me give him say 15-20 games in A+ and 60-70 in AA. That should leave enough time to get 30-50 games in AAA. If he plays really well he could still get an audition in the bigs at the end of the year and be ready early in 2024. Starting him in AA doesn't really change that timeline much. I would probably go A+ for Henderson but with the limited innings A would be fine. For Misi, maybe going the Chorio route and letting him work in a camp an extra week or 2 and the going to A ball would be a good idea.

It hasn't been brought up here alot but what about the Twins as a trade partner for Burnes, Woody, or even Willy. They have a bunch of money under there project salary and have a solid farm system. In the past they have acquire a bunch of #3 ceiling type pitchers (Gray, Meada, Archer, Bundy, Pineada, Paddack, Hill, Odirizzi), maybe they wise up and go for a #1 to pair with Joe Ryan. They have Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Jhoan Duran, and Royce Lewis as higher end prospects. Matt Wallner, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino, and Edouard Juilien as near top 100 prospcts (if not in on some lists). With a slew of interesting pieces to round out the group, not to mention some veterens and young players who could be included as well. Woody for Woods-Richardson, Julien, Matt Canterino, Chris Paddack, and Griffin Jax They get a high end star we get 2 high end arms, a future 2B to pair with Turang and 2 solid arms for the year (if Paddack is healthy). Burnes and Tellez for Lee, Rodriguez, Woods-Richardson, Canterino, and Jax Obviously we don't need Rodriguez but if we make a trade to aquire someone and add an OF or 2 this could make sense. We get two superstar potential bat, 2 high end arms, and a pen option. Twins give up a ton of prospects but Rowdy would allow Miranda to move to 3rd and play some 1st/DH and allow Arreaz to move around.