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Brewcrew82

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Everything posted by Brewcrew82

  1. Brewcrew82
    Back on subject, I think how the catcher position is determined will tell us a lot about how the FO is approaching the season. If it's Caratini and Feliciano, then we'll know it's more of a retooling year. I just hope that's not the case. Between FA and the trade market, there are a lot of different options out there.
  2. Brewcrew82
    This belongs in a PM, not in the forum. But his opinion about Mitchell is not one that's close to mainstream which is what I (and another poster) was trying to get across. He was the one who responded to two separate trade proposals (including one of mine) involving Mitchell by emphatically saying, "there's no way I trade him. No! you just don't do that." But you will notice that this entire conversation was about baseball, while your posts never are these days. You only complain about other posters.
  3. Brewcrew82
    I would so love for Aaron Ashby to turn into Framer Valdez.
  4. Brewcrew82
    Okay. My bad. I don't have a BA subscription, so I was looking strictly at Pipeline and Fangraphs, which both have him listed at 70 alongside Chourio, Frelick, and Ruiz. But it's essentially a matter of degrees and top line speed does not a superstar or unicorn make in the absence of a consistent hit tool and in-game power, which is how BA, like all other outlets, evaluates Mitchell. We'll see what happens this offseason.
  5. Brewcrew82
    Bucks look like they're going to take the regular season more seriously this year. I wouldn't mind another 18/19-19/20-style 60 win campaign and a #1 seed. Last year was kind of ugly for stretches. Of course, I'm sure a lot of it has to do with the extra two months of rest.
  6. Brewcrew82
    Not really. If it was that clear, you would have said "when the contracts are signed." Why me and another poster understood it in that way.
  7. Brewcrew82
    Except you're getting your facts wrong here. Mitchell doesn't have 80-grade speed. He has 70-grade speed, as do Chourio and Ruiz. Carroll actually has 80-grade speed and was the fastest player in baseball this year. As I said, a lot of wishful fan thinking going on from you regarding Mitchell, which conflicts with what virtually all of the industry experts have said/are saying.
  8. Brewcrew82
    To start, Woodruff is younger than Castillo. That is an incontrovertible fact. And, as I said, to play it safe in terms of time, my extension assumes an in-season agreement, in which case it doesn't kick in until 2024. That, plus 4 more years takes it through 2028, or Woodruff's age 35 season. 5 years $118 Million. Far from unreasonable. Obviously, the ideal would be an agreement this offseason which would preempt the two arb years and take him through one less year at 34. That may cost more, however, despite the presence of the Castillo contract as the Castillo deal was largely team-friendly. For now, I'll err on the side of caution and assume a higher total cost more in line with market value, and then be pleasantly surprised if a future agreement comes in cheaper.
  9. Brewcrew82
    Huh? Castillo is older than Woodruff...
  10. Brewcrew82
    Tremendous article that effectively summarizes my precise thoughts on a Woodruff extension. In particular, this quote: "anyone who has watched the playoffs knows that for a team to make a legitimate run toward a World Series title, they have to have at least two, and preferably three or four top starting pitchers." While we have some really promising position players starting to emerge from our farm system, eventually to be headlined by Chourio, we remain short on high-impact arms, which as you state, are necessary for a "legitimate run" at a WS. Obviously, we have Peralta and Ashby locked up already, but what would really help is locking up one of our sure-fire, top 10 aces in Burnes and Woodruff to front a sustained World Series push over the next 5-6 years. Woodruff, for obvious reasons, is the most likely candidate, and the deal you propose is eminently reasonable for both player and club. Then, you can trade Burnes to obtain your next generation of superstar pitchers (i.e., Rodriguez, Espino, Tiedemann, Miller, Stone, etc.).
  11. Brewcrew82
    Tremendous article that effectively summarizes my precise thoughts on a Woodruff extension. In particular, this quote: "anyone who has watched the playoffs knows that for a team to make a legitimate run toward a World Series title, they have to have at least two, and preferably three or four top starting pitchers." While we have some really promising position players starting to emerge from our farm system, eventually to be headlined by Chourio, we remain short on high-impact arms, which as you state, are necessary for a "legitimate run" at a WS. Obviously, we have Peralta and Ashby locked up already, but what would really help is locking up one of our sure-fire, top 10 aces in Burnes and Woodruff to front a sustained World Series push over the next 5-6 years. Woodruff, for obvious reasons, is the most likely candidate, and the deal you propose is eminently reasonable for both player and club. Then, you can trade Burnes to obtain your next generation of superstar pitchers (i.e., Rodriguez, Espino, Tiedemann, Miller, Stone, etc.).
  12. Brewcrew82
    In that case, his statement makes much more sense, and I would agree.
  13. Brewcrew82
    "Carroll is the only one of the player you mentioned that approaches Mitchell's speed". Carroll not only approaches Mitchell's speed, he exceeds it. He was only the fastest player in the majors this year. "And while I love both Chourio and Wiemer's tools, neither have Mitchell's game changing speed." Chourio most definitely has similar game-changing speed. They're both 70-grade runners. And if what you care about is speed, then what about Esteury Ruiz? Ruiz showed more power in the minors this season than Mitchell ever has... "And Mitchell was a top 100 prospect that fell-out due mostly to not being able to stay on the field" And Mitchell was able to stay on the field this season? Did he not spend a significant chunk of time once again this year on the IL?? Also, it was not his inability to stay on the field that sent him off top 100 lists. It was that IN COMBINATION with his continued inability to access his raw power on the field as a result of his swing. Overall, Mitchell is not a unicorn or a potential superstar right now. That's just wishful fan thinking on your part. Do I wish you were right? Of course. But I also see his career stats and scouting report, the upcoming OF roster crunch, and the presence of other holes on our roster. In that light, trading a talented prospect like Mitchell for a sleeper slugging catcher like Jansen isn't as asinine as you're making it out to be.
  14. Brewcrew82
    I don't know what to make of the guy saying he's not "gaga" over Quero, but he's "fringe Top 10". That just doesn't make sense to me, because to place Quero as a fringe top 10 prospect at this point, you'd definitely have to be "gaga" over him. I've got him in the top 100 for sure due to his tremendous defense and his emergence with the bat, but he'd have to take another leap on offense to approach top 10 status. I wouldn't quite say this farm system "has it all". Besides the lack of "true, blue blood corner IF prospects", we are lacking on impact arms at the upper minors right now. I like Gasser, but he's a fringe top 100 prospect and more of a middle of the rotation starter. Misiorowski has world's of potential, but he's really far away with his command right now. And, after that, the cupboard becomes pretty bare thanks to Small crapping the bed this season. So, we're still pretty well short of the Dodgers, Orioles, Rays, etc.
  15. Brewcrew82
    What do the people think of the dugout interviews FOX is doing this postseason after HRs? I personally love it and think it does a lot to help market the stars, which MLB falls short of compared to its NFL and NBA counterparts, but I know there's a contingent that is pretty strongly against it.
  16. Brewcrew82
    My bad. I had forgotten about Burnes' oblique injury. Although, a shoulder injury is definitely more worrisome and that occurred just this year. Bottom line, Burnes is just plain better than Castillo and has two full years of control versus Castillo's then-1.5 years.
  17. Brewcrew82
    Okay, but what about his tendency to get hit more than his ace counterparts, when he's not comparatively short on BABIP luck? And why hasn't he posted sub 3 ERAs like Zack Wheeler since 2020 with the same defense?
  18. Brewcrew82
    Just in our farm system Chourio and Wiemer have just as good of, if not better, tools. And then there's Corbin Carroll, Pete Crow Armstrong, Colton Cowser, Elijah Greene, Zac Veen, etc. That's no "unicorn". Difference is those guys actually have the ability to access their raw power whereas Mitchell doesn't. Which is why they're top 100 prospects and Mitchell isn't. Superstar or unicorn, neither of those terms applies to Mitchell right now nor is particularly likely to in the future.
  19. Brewcrew82
    Luis Castillo was on the IL to start the season with a shoulder injury. Burnes has ZERO injury history.
  20. Brewcrew82
    Scherzer, when he was with the Nationals. Rodon, with both the White Sox and Giants. DeGrom. To name a few.
  21. Brewcrew82
    And Burnes is much better than Castillo and, unlike Castillo, has zero injury history. Just look at the BTV sample I provided. It's fair value and what the Brewers should expect if they're going to trade Burnes.
  22. Brewcrew82
    Here's the culprit, as I suspected: Since 2019, Aaron Nola is outside of the top 30 in BAA. And it's not due to an abnormally high BABIP, either, as his BABIP (.296) is essentially equal to Burnes, Bieber. and Fried during that time. Meanwhile, during his career year of 2018, his BAA was .196 and his BABIP was the 7th lowest among qualifiers. So, Aaron Nola's propensity to get hit more than his fellow elites is largely a product of his actual pitching and not as much bad luck. Hence, a "tad overrated" and more of a top 15-10 pitcher than a top 9-5 pitcher.
  23. Brewcrew82
    Doesn't mean they're likely to land him. For a pitcher of DeGrom's quality, there's bound to be at least 10 teams that are "in on him". In the end, I'd be shocked if he didn't either end up back in New York or in LA or Atlanta. The most likely scenario remains that, even if they seriously pursue DeGrom, Verlander, and/or Rodon, they strike out on all three of them.
  24. Brewcrew82
    That's a fair take. But I guess the crux of my argument is that the divergence between his peripherals and results since 2019 is so much more than his ace counterparts, some of whom also have had to deal with shoddy defense during that time, that it simply speaks to his tendency to get lit up more frequently, as in his last couple postseason starts
  25. Brewcrew82
    FWIW, Orioles are actually the team that walks away with excess value here.
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