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wiguy94

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Everything posted by wiguy94

  1. wiguy94
    Ottavino had 7 BB+HBP in 81 PA against LHP and their success against him was largely on the back of a .392 BABIP. His command is miles above Cousins so comparing them is pretty pointless. Plus Ottavino's arsenal is more diverse than Cousins. Ottavino's aresenal last year: SL - 43%, SI - 33%, 4FB - 12%, CH - 7%, CU - 5%, Cousins' arsenal last year: SL - 56%, SI - 43%, CH - 1%
  2. wiguy94
    Although the bad news is the walks/HBP were still huge issues in 2021 against LHP and they had a .386 OBP vs Cousins.
  3. wiguy94
    I should add these splits for Cousins looked much better in 2021, but he had the elbow injury in 2022 which might have impacted his control/release point leading to the poor platoon splits.
  4. wiguy94
    Strzelecki profiles as a better leverage RP because his pitch makeup is better against LHP and he has a capable 3rd pitch while Cousins doesn't. Cousins' 2022 OPS splits are quite evident. MLB: .589 vs RHB, .861 vs LHB AAA: .493 vs RHB, .799 vs LHB 127 total PA vs RHB with 11 BB and 4 HBP compared to 88 PA vs LHB with 16 BB and 3 HBP. Walks are out of control against LHB. Strzelecki's 2022 OPS splits look much better. MLB: .607 vs RHB, .676 vs LHB AAA: .577 vs RHB, .674 vs LHB 254 total PA vs RHB with 21 BB and 3 HBP compared to 162 PA vs LHB with 19 BB and 1 HBP. Cousins had 19 BB+HBP in 88 PA vs LHB. Strzelecki had 20 BB+HBP in 162 PA vs LHB. Seems pretty clear to me why the Brewers view Strzelecki as a high leverage guy and Cousins as a guy with question marks still.
  5. wiguy94
    Chourio would have significantly more value...it's not even comparable. Like come on.
  6. wiguy94
    I don't think either of these two will be on the opening day roster.
  7. wiguy94
    The 2020-2022 version of Burnes is definitely the best peak of a pitcher in the Brewers history, but yeah he needs another season or two at that level to make up for the huge volume that Sheets and Higuera have over him. For all we know Woodruff could pitch better than Burnes this year and next and stake the claim as the best pitcher in franchise history. Would still argue that 2021 Burnes was the best season in franchise history with 2004 Sheets as a close runner up.
  8. wiguy94
    Agree with this. Rowdy needs to have a breakout season if he wants the Brewers to keep him going forward. If he's around 110 wRC+ and 1 WAR player again then I doubt the Brewers bring him back in 2024.
  9. wiguy94
    How would giving Burnes that extra $750K make us more successful?
  10. wiguy94
    No don't walk it back now. You said what the Brewers did to Burnes is only something an unserious franchise with no interest in winning would do which is patently false.
  11. wiguy94
    The Braves after winning a WS filed a $200K arb difference with their star pitcher Max Fried. I guess we now know the Braves aren't committed to making the postseason or making a legitimate World Series run.
  12. wiguy94
    Yeah this is a pretty good summation of how I feel. Cards are favorites but nowhere near the 8 game favorites they are according to ZiPS.
  13. wiguy94
    I'd definitely try to extend Urias. Lock him down for 1 or 2 FA years would be a good move to provide stability over the next 4 years.
  14. wiguy94
    I think the bigger issue is that offense was down league wide and most people just didn't pay attention to that when looking at raw OPS/BA numbers. League average OPS last year was .706 which is .022 lower than 2021. Runs per game were at 4.28 which was .25 lower than 2021. Both of these numbers seeing sizable drops despite the introduction of the universal DH is the biggest reason why people think the offense was worse than what it actually was last year.
  15. wiguy94
    I still get a chuckle when people say this. We had the 11th best wRC+ in baseball and were one of the most consistent teams at scoring 4+ and 5+ runs per game. Our offense wasn’t anemic. League-wide offense was anemic because the MLB can’t stop messing with baseballs.
  16. wiguy94
    Over the last two seasons Lauer has a 105 FIP-, 101 xFIP-, and 4.14 SIERA. By run value he only has two positive graded pitches. Last season Lauer had the third most OAA when he was on the mound with an estimated runs prevented of 9. If that defensive support was neutral and he gave up the estimated 9 more runs then his ERA would have ballooned to 4.20. There’s very little reason to commit 6 seasons to a pitcher of Lauer’s level let alone about $15M a year for the FA years.
  17. wiguy94
    The offense definitely has potential outcomes both positive and negative in comparison to last year, but I think the upside is much higher this year with Winker, Contreras and some rookies coming up. If things go right we could push for a top 10 offense in all of baseball (finished 11th in wRC+ last year I believe)
  18. wiguy94
    I've noted this before but Winker also underperformed his xwOBA by .032 which was the 12th biggest underperformance in the MLB. Among qualified MLB hitters his .345 xwOBA was 34th in the MLB (would have been second on the Brewers behind Rowdy's .349). Winker was injured and one of the biggest underperformers of his expected stats but still managed to put up a 109 wRC+. Obviously it's not a guarantee that he bounces back to even his career average of 126 wRC+, but the odds are pretty darn high that he is an upgrade over Cutch as our primary DH.
  19. wiguy94
    I'd expect Winker to bounce back somewhat offensively and Wong to regress somewhat offensively because Winker is moving to a more hitter-friendly park and Wong a more pitcher-friendly. What makes or breaks this trade imo is if Wong bounces back in the field. He was one of the worst if not the worst defensive 2B in baseball last year.
  20. wiguy94
    Also giving the Feliciano move a D is pretty harsh. The Tigers DFA'd him and nobody in the MLB claimed him. He clearly isn't valued as someone deserving of taking up a 40-man spot at this point.
  21. wiguy94
    I still don't understand the F grade for Suter. Suter was not flexible the last two years. He has been one of the lowest leverage relief pitchers in baseball. Losing him as a person sucks, but $3M for the last guy in the bullpen is just a waste of an already limited budget.
  22. wiguy94
    Woodruff didn't have an arm injury. He had a sprained ankle and issues with Raynaud's syndrome.
  23. wiguy94
    Burnes pitched 145 innings in 2017 as a 22-year-old in the minors which is more than Freddy has ever pitched in a single year. Burnes also has a prototypical SP build at 6'3", 225 pounds compared to Freddy who is small by SP standards at 5'11", 199 pounds.
  24. wiguy94
    It will be interesting to see how CC plans to use our improved SP depth this year. I know he has already committed to DW being the closer, but I hope he uses our improved depth to be super flexible with our pitchers outside of DW, Burnes, and Woodruff. That could be piggyback starts, skipping starts, bullpen stretches out of Miley, Lauer, Peralta, Ashby, Houser. I'm excited to see what CC has in store for us.
  25. wiguy94
    Are you doing a separate RP list?
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