Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

wiguy94

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,791

  • Joined

  • Days Won

    98

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

News

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects Ranking

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

Milwaukee Brewers Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Pick Tracker

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by wiguy94

  1. wiguy94
    538 has us at 47% and Philly at 56%. They project both of us to end at 87-75.
  2. wiguy94
    They could but he’s out of options after this season so there really isn’t much of a point in keeping him on the 40-man.
  3. wiguy94
    They could but he’s out of options after this season so there really isn’t much of a point in keeping him on the 40-man.
  4. wiguy94
    Well his BABIP has been better because he's hitting far more line drives instead of fly balls. High FB hitters rarely carry high BABIP numbers. His LD rate in September is 31% compared to 12-18% for pretty much the entire rest of the year. His FB rate is also the lowest of the year. A lot of these issues were cause of his swing plane being more of an uppercut this year. Obviously there was some bad luck involved but he was never going to carry a high BABIP with his batted ball distribution in previous months.
  5. wiguy94
    Well his BABIP has been better because he's hitting far more line drives instead of fly balls. High FB hitters rarely carry high BABIP numbers. His LD rate in September is 31% compared to 12-18% for pretty much the entire rest of the year. His FB rate is also the lowest of the year. A lot of these issues were cause of his swing plane being more of an uppercut this year. Obviously there was some bad luck involved but he was never going to carry a high BABIP with his batted ball distribution in previous months.
  6. wiguy94
    Yeah SD has the 7th most difficult schedule remaining (1 more at Coors then 3 against the Dodgers, Giants and White Sox). Philly is 20th (1 more against Atlanta then 4 against the Nats and 3 against the Cubs and Astros). We are 23rd (1 more against the Reds then 2 vs St. Louis, 4 vs Miami and 3 vs Arizona). A super hopeful 8-2 finish for the Brewers would still require either San Diego to close the year 5-5 or Philly close the year 6-5. It still doesn't look great for us.
  7. wiguy94
    Hiura has seen two separate extended playing time periods this year. May 18th to June 25th he played 21 games and had 77 PA. August 17th to September 9th he played 20 games and had 75 PA. His wRC+ in the first 10 games of those extended runs were 172 and 171. His K-rates in those 10 games were 36.8% and 34.3%. His wRC+ in the second 11/10 games of those extended runs were 58 and 44. His K-rates in thise 11/10 games were 53.8% and 40.0%. So in both of Hiura's extended playtime runs he started extremely hot then faded and starting striking out much more. He hasn't done a very good job of justifying extended playing time.
  8. wiguy94
    Among hitters with 200 PA Hiura is 2nd in HR/FB and one of only two players with a HR/FB rate over 30%. Here are the players with 10 highest HR/FB rates in baseball and their Max EV percentile. Name - HR/FB rate, Max EV percentile Aaron Judge - 36.2%, 99th Keston Hiura - 35.0%, 69th Oneil Cruz - 29.3%, 100th William Contreras - 29.2%, 97th Giancarlo Stanton - 28.9%, 100th Yordan Alvarez - 27.6%, 97th Michael Harris II - 26.5%, 88th Trayce Thompson (lol) 26.2%, 80th Byron Buxton - 24.3%, 92nd Mike Trout - 23.6%, 95th Hiura has always been on the higher side of HR/FB rate with a 23.9% career average but he's upped that level this year to Judge level despite having a 69th percentile Max EV. I think it is safe to say that Hiura probably couldn't maintain such a prodigious HR/FB rate with everyday playing time considering his physical limitations. If Hiura's HR/FB rate was his career average he would have 10 HR instead of 14. If you give him 2 doubles and 2 outs instead of those 4 HR his OPS would drop from .780 to .722. People talk about his amazing numbers against RHP but he is rocking a 44% HR/FB rate against RHP. The next closest player with 100 PA is Judge at 35.4%. I'm guessing the Brewers just don't think those numbers are sustainable for Hiura over extended playing time.
  9. wiguy94
    Hiura has amazing numbers against RHP which is certainly awesome, but those numbers are on the back of an unheard of 44% HR/FB rate against RHP. The next closest among players with at least 100 PA is Aaron Judge at 35%...Hiura's HR/FB rates put him as a prodigious power threat despite a max EV in the 69th percentile. There's just so many red flags in his game between the ridiculous HR/FB rates, ridiculous K-rates, and the lack of anything to fall back on (defense) if the bat falls off.
  10. wiguy94
    And yes Hiura has a 118 wRC+ but he's also one of 2 MLB players with a HR/FB rate over 30%. The other is Aaron Judge. It's unlikely that Hiura can maintain such a prodigious HR/FB rate over a larger sample size considering his career HR/FB rate is over 10% lower than what it has been this season. If Hiura's HR/FB rate was stabilized with his career average he would have 10 HR this year. If you take 4 HR away and turn them into say 2 doubles and 2 outs his slashline goes from .231/.318/.462 for a .780 OPS to .221/.309/.413 for a .722 OPS
  11. wiguy94
    Let's play a fun game. We will do the highest K-rate among hitters at certain PA numbers. 500 PA - Eugenio Suarez 30.8% 400 PA - Chris Taylor 36.0% 300 PA - Joey Gallo 38.8% 250 PA - Oneil Cruz 38.8% 200 PA - Keston Hiura 41.9% (only one other player, Brett Phillips, has 200 PA and a K-rate over 40%) Guys who strike out as much as Hiura does do not play every day. Only 11 players in the MLB have 50 PA and a K-rate over 40%. 9 of the 11 have a wRC+ under 100. Dermis Garcia has 79 PA and a 140 wRC+ with a K-rate of 44.3% but his .438 BABIP likely speak to him far overperforming his expected results.
  12. wiguy94
    Adames is an elite defensive SS and could end the year as a 5 WAR player. He's by far our best position player.
  13. wiguy94
    I don't think this is true of all parks, but this is very true for AmFam. AmFam has a pretty small outfield which makes the HR ball that much more important here. Statcast oark factors 3 year rolling average has AmFam as a below average park for singles, doubles, and triples but one of the most favorable for HR. Baseball-Reference park factors has AmFam as a pitchers park. If you aren't hitting HR at AmFam it will be difficult to consistently put together a good offense.
  14. wiguy94
    Yelich and Hiura both falling off after 2019 hurts a lot here. Those were the two guys who were supposed to be the big bats in the middle of our order. Unfortunately acquiring these big bats is easier said than done. They either take a large prospect haul, a lot of money or both. This is where the Brewers inability to develop bats post Lucroy has been an issue. Thankfully we seem to be righting the ship in this department, but it might be too late to capitalize on Burnes and Woodruff's team control which is why some have suggested a soft retool for 2024 by trading one of those two for some more prospects.
  15. wiguy94
    Yelich and Hiura both falling off after 2019 hurts a lot here. Those were the two guys who were supposed to be the big bats in the middle of our order. Unfortunately acquiring these big bats is easier said than done. They either take a large prospect haul, a lot of money or both. This is where the Brewers inability to develop bats post Lucroy has been an issue. Thankfully we seem to be righting the ship in this department, but it might be too late to capitalize on Burnes and Woodruff's team control which is why some have suggested a soft retool for 2024 by trading one of those two for some more prospects.
×
×
  • Create New...