wiguy94
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Everything posted by wiguy94
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Rumor: Dear Brewers, Please Go Get Kyle Garlick
wiguy94 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
He cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA -
I totally forgot about Cameron. He absolutely should be above Podsednik as well. Cameron as a Brewer: 269 G, .247/.337/.464 for a 111 wRC+. He had 3 DRS and 8.1 fWAR.
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Yeah I don’t see any reason for Podsednik to be above Cain. Podsednik’s as a Brewer: 308 G, .276/.344/.401 for a 95 wRC+. He had -11 DRS and finished with 5.1 fWAR. Cain as a Brewer: 415 G, .270/.344/.380 for a 96 wRC+. He had 49 DRS and finished with 8.5 fWAR. Cain’s 2018 was worth more fWAR than Podsednik’s two years in Milwaukee combined.
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Arraez won the batting title in the AL last year and didn’t even end the season with an .800 OPS.
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In 2021 between AA and AAA, Kwan had a 154 wRC+ with a 10.6% BB-rate, 9.1% K-rate, .199 ISO, and a .335 BABIP. In 2022 between A+ and AAA, Frelick had a 137 wRC+ with a 9.3% BB-rate, 11.2% K-rate, .148 ISO, and a .361 BABIP. Kwan was a better version of Frelick in the minors and didn’t reach an .880 OPS as a rookie despite over performing his xwOBA by 29 points. Not to mention the Brewers also play in one of the least ball in play friendly parks in the MLB because of its small dimensions. In statcast’s 3-year rolling park factors, AmFam is 6% below average in singles, 8% below average in doubles, and 4% below average in triples.
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OBP is included in OPS so not sure why them walking more matters. That’s factored into the OPS number. You’re taking minor league stats for Frelick and comparing them to major league stats with Taylor and acting like Frelick will maintain an .880 OPS in the MLB with a .361 BABIP and virtually no power. You know how many qualified hitters in the MLB had an .880 OPS last year? 7 and 6 of the 7 had 30+ HR. Frelick isn’t maintaining an .880 OPS in the MLB if he only hits 10 HR. You know how many qualified hitters had a BABIP over .361? 3. If you think Frelick can maintain his minor league numbers you’re essentially saying you think Frelick is a top 10 hitter in all of the MLB next year and a batting champion.
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If you take out Hunter Renfroe's HR last year he had a .550 OPS. If you take out Rowdy Tellez's HR last year he had a .472 OPS. If you take out Willy Adames' HR last year he had a .513 OPS. Here I'll just take one of the best hitters in baseball last season Pete Alonso. He was 12th in wRC+. If you take out his HR he only had a .597 OPS and he was one of the best hitters in all of baseball. HR are significantly more valuable than any other hit in baseball. If you take them away from any hitter who is power over hit tool then they will look bad because you are taking away a crap ton of value.
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HR are also a lot more valuable than singles which you’re completely ignoring. Maybe Frelick is more valuable 4 days a week but that value won’t compare to the value Taylor has in the game he homers.
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Mitchell had a .548 BABIP and an xwOBA of .266 (which he overperformed by 99 points). It’s reading a lot into small sample noise to say he didn’t do too shabby. Winker’s xwOBA last year was .345 which was 34th in the MLB among qualified hitters and second among Brewers hitters. He woefully underperformed that number but he’s moving from Seattle (one of the least friendly parks in baseball) to Milwaukee (a neutral hitter/pitcher friendly parks). Of the 41 rookies with 250 PA last year only 2 had a better xwOBA than Winker. The likelihood of any of our rookies being better hitters than Winker next year is incredibly low. The likelihood of all of them being better hitters than Winker is basically nonexistent.
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How good do you think the rookies will be for them to all be starting? Like if one of them is good enough to start next year it will be a success. 3 of them good enough to start is incredibly unlikely and even then. Winker’s bat will likely be much better than what any of them will offer so trading him makes our offense worse.
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Why would Winker be the one who gets moved in that scenario? He’s a DH/5th OF. Why wouldn’t you move Tyrone instead considering he’s the 3rd/4th OF and the direct competition for playing time for the rookies.
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Henderson’s BTV value is larger than Burnes. Trading someone with 6 years of control for someone with 2 years of control at the beginning of your competitive window is a great way of shortening said competitive window.
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Agreed. It makes very little sense. If Winker has a huge bounce back year there’s a chance he gets a qualifying offer in the offseason (it’s very unlikely but still possible)
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Henderson and Rodriguez will not be traded by the Orioles for anything. I doubt the Brewers would even ask for Henderson in a trade because they know it would never happen.
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Still pending physical. The Miley signing was leaked multiple days before it became official
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Nice little article about Brian Anderson ok Fangraphs. Let’s hope the injury bug is behind him because it seems like there’s still a good baseball player there when healthy.
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Looking at his year by year splits against LHP I was pretty hopeful. Outside of 2021 and his rookie year he never was below 95 wRC+ against LHP but 2021 was horrible and his K-rate has spiked against LHP the last two years with a near Hiura level 39% K-rate against them. I really think this signing is all going to come down to his health.
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He also had a 36% K-rate and a .366 BABIP against LHP, so I’m not sure thst production is super sustainable.
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I feel like barring a super good spring training that Turang will be in the minors until the super 2 deadline.
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My concern with Anderson against LHP is the K-rate has seriously spiked the last two seasons at 39% over 141 PA compared to 22% over 358 PA from 2018-2020.
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Brewers have managed to get their hands on another RHH with career reverse splits. We are just stacking up this team to destroy RHP again.
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I hope this potential trade works out as well for the Cardinals as their last big trade with the Marlins. Cards received 4.7 fWAR from Ozuna in that trade and have given up 22 fWAR between Alcantara and Gallen who (who still have combined 5 years of team control from the time they were traded, Alcantara signed a longer contract but only two of those years are from his 6 years of team control) i think Lopez is good but he’s a lot like Freddy Peralta in that he hasn’t proven to be a workhorse guy. Lopez has topped 150 innings just once in his career.
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Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
wiguy94 replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Don’t think Arraez is a 3B. He’s more of a 1B/2B/DH. -
And once again, Burnes is arb 2 while Woody is arb 3. Burnes will be getting about $4M more than Woodruff did in arb 2 last year. This is how the arb process works.
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Yeah the comparison for people should be Burnes likely to make $4M more in arb 2 than Woodruff did last year. Next year in arb 3 he will likely make $8M+ more than Woodruff did this year in arb 3
