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Redd Vencher

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Everything posted by Redd Vencher

  1. Redd Vencher
    I take it you're conceding the Adames/Story/Baez comparison. The $/WAR calculation is based on what teams actually spent in FA. Obviously, the average isn't going to be the same for every player as teams have their own internals on player value that differs from team to team. The whole Moneyball philosophy is about finding players the market undervalues.
  2. Redd Vencher
    It was in the ballpark of $180 M before the 2020 season 2 years before he hit FA not 1 year at least according to Olney's reporting. There's certainly risk, and I would take fewer years if I could. I don't think that's possible, so I'm fine risk in the deal I laid out. The option year isn't a guaranteed year, so I don't treat it as him being locked in. Just a difference in semantics, so I'll leave that there.
  3. Redd Vencher
    Baez Career 104 wRC+ when he hit FA with a peak of 131 (2018), 3 total times north of 110 and 5 times south of 100. Story Career 111 wRC+ when he hit FA with a peak of 128 (2018), 4 times north of 110, and 2 below 100, Adames Career 111 wRC+ peak of 126 (2020) with 3 total times north of 110 (2022 just missed at 109), and 1 time below 100 (2019 just missed at 99) I think FA $/WAR is around $8 M, and even at $6 M/WAR you're looking 3 WAR for the money. There's certainly risk like any contract, but I'm fine with the risk at that level. If he'd sign cheaper, I'd certainly prefer that.
  4. Redd Vencher
    Why does this push back Turang? He's ticketed for the Jace Peterson role this year. He shouldn't have been counted on for anything more.
  5. Redd Vencher
    I don't think 2 years before FA lops any years off any prospective deal. 2 years before FA means you're more likely to get a discount on those FA years. Any proposed extension is going to need to be at least $100 M to get him locked up, or it doesn't make any sense from Adames' perspective. Looking at comparables, the Cubs offered Baez a $180 M extension 2 years before FA that he ultimately turned down.
  6. Redd Vencher
    It depends on a bunch of different factors. I still see some 6+ WAR seasons in Willy's future, and I'm willing to lock him in longer to snag those at reasonable rate. 8 years would only take him through his age 34 season. I don't think he's going to completely fall off a cliff in his early 30s that would make me nervous about giving him $18 M per year during those seasons.
  7. Redd Vencher
    That isn't higher AAV for less years. You'd be looking at $30+ M for those 2 FA years, and that's not something the Brewers would do. that's a pretty joke offer to Adames.
  8. Redd Vencher
    He's pacing to enter FA with a career WAR in the Javier Baez and Trevor Story range if he plays the next 2 seasons at his career average. They both got 6 years $140 M on the market at the same age (Story) and a year younger (Baez) when Adames hits FA. I was using the 6 year $140 M deals as a framework for his FA seasons, and that's how I got to the 8 year deal.
  9. Redd Vencher
    It all comes down to whether they'll accept a deal that fits or when teams offer enough value to trade them. I don't think Burnes can be extended with the current trajectory he's on. We just saw a comparable pitcher to Woodruff in Castillo sign an extension that I think is feasible for the Brewers. I'd go 5 years $105 M with a 6th year option for Woodruff. (23 $10 M 24 $15 M 25-27 $25 M 28 $5 M buyout of $25 M option) I think Adames should be an extension candidate, and I'd be willing to go 8 years $132 M with a 9th year option. (22 $8 M 23 $12 M 24-29 $18 M 30 $4 M buyout of $18 M option) To make both fit with the Yelich deal, you can defer $5 M per year for Woodruff's FA years and $4 M per year for Adames' FA years. ($39-48 M defferred if options are picked up) Getting those 2 extensions done would make it an easier sell trading Burnes this offseason, but it's a lot of moving pieces.
  10. Redd Vencher
    If he was coming off a season that graded out like his previous seasons defensively, he'd have more value, but that isn't the question at play. A 2.5-3.1 WAR player per 480 PA the last 3 seasons on a 1 year $10 M deal has value in a trade. Nobody has said he's worth a top 100 prospect or 2 at that price and contract length. I suggested C Tom Murphy (1 arb year left), 1B Robert Perez Jr. (Pipeline #21), and RHP Isaiah Campbell (Unranked) from Seattle as a possible return for Kolten Wong in my roster blue print. Wong's 113 wRC+ over the last 2 seasons is tied for 8th with Jake Cronenworth among 2B in the majors, and would provide a significant upgrade over Adam Frazier's 81 wRC+ last year. As for his defense, please show me where the wrong direction in his defensive ability has gone for years. There doesn't seem to be one in the numbers. You have an above average/good defender and then one uncharacteristically bad year. If all I have to bet on his 2023, average out his 3 years (3 DRS 1.2 UZR -2 OAA) or even do a 5:3:1 weighted average (2 DRS -0.6 UZR -4 OAA) to estimate where his 2023 defense will be. I don't think that defensive line is a negative in a trade.
  11. Redd Vencher
    You have defensive metrics. DRS says he's elite at 3B in his career, UZR says he's average, and OAA says he's below average. 2 of the 3 available metrics rate him average or better. That suggests more time unless you find a better bat to play the position. Just because scouting reports say someone is an 'elite' defensive player doesn't mean they actually will be in the majors. Orlando Arcia was a top 10 prospect in baseball because scouts saw an elite defender, and that never materialized in the majors. He was average at best at SS.
  12. Redd Vencher
    You have defensive metrics. DRS says he's elite at 3B in his career, UZR says he's average, and OAA says he's below average. 2 of the 3 available metrics rate him average or better. That suggests more time unless you find a better bat to play the position. Just because scouting reports say someone is an 'elite' defensive player doesn't mean they actually will be in the majors. Orlando Arcia was a top 10 prospect in baseball because scouts saw an elite defender, and that never materialized in the majors. He was average at best at SS.
  13. Redd Vencher
    They don't have to see him as an above average defender to trade for him, though. He was a 2.5-3.2 WAR player last year. That's easily worth 1 year $10 M. They shouldn't evaluate him as the worst defensive 2B because of 1 season.
  14. Redd Vencher
    With any defensive metric you need about 3000 innings before they stabilize. He has less than 1200 innings at 3B in his career, which isn't even a full season. +10 DRS -0.1 UZR -3 OAA.
  15. Redd Vencher
    With any defensive metric you need about 3000 innings before they stabilize. He has less than 1200 innings at 3B in his career, which isn't even a full season. +10 DRS -0.1 UZR -3 OAA.
  16. Redd Vencher
    They shouldn't have any problem trading him if they pick up the option. The defensive metrics need 3000+ innings to be reliable, so you shouldn't overreact to one year of data.
  17. Redd Vencher
    A guy who put up a 111 wRC+ 4.4 fWAR 6.2 bWAR over the last 2 seasons isn't a hole at 3B. We've basically got Mike Moustakas over there right now. This isn't to say I'm against doing better than that at 3B as I proposed acquiring Yandy Diaz to take the 50-55% of the innings over there in my roster blueprint, but it's silly to look at it as a hole.
  18. Redd Vencher
    A guy who put up a 111 wRC+ 4.4 fWAR 6.2 bWAR over the last 2 seasons isn't a hole at 3B. We've basically got Mike Moustakas over there right now. This isn't to say I'm against doing better than that at 3B as I proposed acquiring Yandy Diaz to take the 50-55% of the innings over there in my roster blueprint, but it's silly to look at it as a hole.
  19. Redd Vencher
    Who are the ace Who are the counterparts outside of Wheeler that have had to deal with the shoddy defense?
  20. Redd Vencher
    I think it's worthwhile to look at his peripherals more than ERA because Philadelphia has been one of the worst defensive teams in baseball for years. 2019 being the lone exception. He's not getting much help behind him. 2022 -34 DRS -11 UZR -6 FR -37 OAA 2021 -54 DRS -7.3 UZR 6.2 FR -24 OAA 2020 -33 DRS -10.7 UZR -0.1 FR -16 OAA 2019 68 DRS 21.1 UZR 8.0 FR -2 OAA 2018 -89 DRS -10.7 UZR 6.4 FR -36 OAA 2017 -33 DRS 2.3 UZR -21.5 FR 3 OAA
  21. Redd Vencher
    It's always a risk with prospects hitting the ground running. It's certainly possible that group can cobble it together, but I don't know if a team trying to compete should dump a vet who has performed well. If you were proposing an enough of an upgrade elsewhere, I wouldn't pushing on this part. Chafin is not a FA, so we can't sign him. Hand's peripherals the last 2 seasons have been trash. I want no part of $5-$8M dollars for him. If Vazquez hits like he did last year, I don't disagree. The issue with Vazquez is he's not shown last year is sustainable for him. Certainly not enough to give him 3 years $8 M AAV. It wouldn't be the worse thing in the world to overspend at that rate, and I'm not opposed to him as a player overall. This would just be shuffling the deck chairs, though. Vazquez had a 1.6 fWAR in 130 more PA than Narvaez' 1.2 fWAR last season. With those 4 guys, why would Urias be on the bench for insurance, and not the starter when he's posted a 111 wRC+ the last 2 seasons 4.4 fWAR 6.2 bWAR. Peterson's 97 wRC+ is not the type of offense you want for your starting 3B no matter how well he plays defense. Turang is a guy who'll likely struggle to get close to a 100 wRC+. I suggested trading those guys because trading Burnes and giving the rest of the team the roster you proposed does not look like a winning a roster, so you might as well trade the rest and go into rebuild assuming extensions weren't reached with them.
  22. Redd Vencher
    Obviously, other moves could help offset the difference, but I don't think that's the case here. I wouldn't mind Drury if the market prices him right, but I just don't think that's going to happen with how thin the 3B market is this year. A career 3.6 fWAR with 3.0 of it coming this season is not something I'd want to clear money to add. Bringing Jace Peterson back isn't replacing anything from this year's roster. Taylor shouldn't be included as a guy replacing Renfroe's WAR when he put up 2+ WAR on this year's roster. He's not a guy replacing Renfroe. Urias put up 2-3 WAR on this years roster. Again, he's not a guy replacing. I don't trust Turang enough offensively to hand over a starting job to him and replace 3 WAR. Who are the HL bullpen arms they're signing and at what price? They certainly aren't signing Edwin Diaz. Are you talking about throwing down Vazquez isn't an improvement over what we got out of the catcher spot last year. I wouldn't mind him if the price was right, but I don't feel confident with the offense being close to as good as it was this year with the moves laid out. It's possible all the OF prospects hit the ground running, but that isn't something I would bet on. The pitching is significantly worse, and we're left in hoping those prospects hit the ground running when they're called up during the season. Unless you manage an extension for Woodruff and Adames, you're better off moving them this offseason as well if this is what you want to do.
  23. Redd Vencher
    Stearns was made POBO to keep a team from poaching him. It wasn't a position before him.
  24. Redd Vencher
    He said he would make the trade again, and do more to help the team through it.
  25. Redd Vencher
    I'm not expecting him to command $10 M AAV over 2 or 3 seasons. I just think a 1 year $3.5 M deal is less than what he's actually going to get on the FA market, but we'll just have to wait and see.
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