Jake McKibbin

Having done a lot of research this offseason, I'm still of the opinion that rediscovering that weird, rising action he had on his changeup with Baltimore is key for him, both in how it masks his fastball and generates whiffs of its own. Looking back to 2022, before injuries started really kicking in, he had a solitary game in triple A vs Charlotte Knights where he was repeatedly 98-99 mph and with a slider 88-89 mph on average. You can have a look below sure! (PS ignore some of the xWOBA stuff, it doesn't really tell the full story in a small sample for 2022)

Developing Baseball (@developingbaseball) • Instagram photos and videos WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM 55 likes, 3 comments - developingbaseball on January 14, 2026: "The facilities we work with have some absolute flame throwers. Here’s... DL Hall 🔥

Developing Baseball (@developingbaseball) • Instagram photos and videos WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM 55 likes, 3 comments - developingbaseball on January 14, 2026: "The facilities we work with have some absolute flame throwers. Here’s... Swipe across, Bryce Meccage touching around 97 mph this off-season apparently

I feel the best they could offer is Vasquez, but that's three sub-optimal fastballs helped by a very effective sweeper. He does throw all three fastballs which is something the Brewers like, but I'm not sure it's a profile they'd love unless you squint a bit The only way this really takes off is if the Padres package some of their recent young, high upside low floor arms along with someone like Vasquez. Perhaps adding Kruz Schoolcraft and Kash Mayfield might give the brewers a high floor filler with some exciting TOP potential arms, but even then the Padres might need to add more. While Schoolcraft and Mayfield are #2 and #4 in the Padres system, they're closer to a #8-15 in the Brewers system, and might need another lottery piece in there to fill things out

The man seemed to consistently crush Trevor Megill, I was fairly scared of him in any save situation those two faced off

100%, the high upside and bets likelihood to hit of any arms coming back in the proposed trades, though full credit to JB who I think have done well enough with each of their suggestions to keep it even. Its also important to say the Brewers will consider themselves trading Freddy Peralta and a 90%+ chance of a comp A pick in the 2027 draft as part of their calculations on the return, and the Red Sox return is the one that certainly looks to have the most upside. Tolle's command and swing and miss arsenal are held together by a deceptive delivery and great spin efficiency. His K-BB% rate (one of the best indicators of success in baseball) was 25.4%!

I imagine perhaps in this case, Lawlar was either in place of Nelson, or just someone the Brewers asked about on the off chance

Emmet Sheehan for Freddy Peralta straight up would be very intriguing to me. The Brewers won't do it, they do prefer multiple pieces coming back, but the value even then based on Sheehan's 24% K-BB rate last year would probably favour the Brewers

What an insightful first post! Welcome!

It's a little more difficult to find good side on footage of him from the right hand side, but I think it's a similar issue. The swings are quite different from each side but the weight transfer is relatively similar

Unfortunately not yet as not all have statcast, though he can get some low A data from the opposite league to the Brewers which oddly has all statcast stadiums Because most franchises use different data providers, it's not uniform or publicly available, but I do find his estimator does quite well. His description of how he made it is incredibly detailed, and it seems to pass the eye test such as say this for Luis Pena at high A (note the chase rate) Vs Jesus made at the same level

Hey can for triple A, he has an estimator app for levels/divisions without statcast data, and I think it's roughly accurate but not exact

Some big podcasts/news sites I think have access to organisations data internally, but I don't quite know how that works. Can you imagine the fun Spencer would be having if we had access to it? I do wonder if the consolidation of data equipment might result in more batted balls and pitch data from the minors in the future, but that's gonna be a few years in the works at least and is very hypothetical

Just been chatting to a few birdies, keep a very close eye on Josiah Ragsdale this season. Some of his off-season bat speeds sound really impressive given his draft profile

Thanks for that! I remember a tickle of doubt on that assumption, even better!

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Jesus Made has some of the most freakish athleticism in baseball at just 19 years old. He stole 47 bases in 59 attempts last year. He was regularly sitting at 74 mph in bat speed as at May 2025 (MLB average 71.9 mph) per Brenton del Chiaro's interview on the Just Baseball Podcast. He also displayed extremely polished swing decisions, sitting at league average in zone swing rates in High-A Wisconsin and better than league average chase rates, all mightily impressive from someone who was 18 to start the 2025 season. Combining that with a highly regarded hit tool, using fantastic hands to manoeuvre the barrel to the ball, as Aram Leighton noted. Even when he was beaten on a pitch, his hand control was sublime to square up the baseball. Combine that with a surging development at shortstop in 2025, and you have almost all of the traditional tools covered. The only thing I haven't talked about is the power production, and that's what currently distinguishes Made from the likes of Konnor Griffin. While Made has the present bat speed and a frame that teases even further upside with natural growth, at present, that power isn't being tapped into. Made slashed .285/.379/.413 in 2025, showcasing those impressive plate discipline and hitting tools, but the actual home run and extra base power wasn't quite where one would expect from a top prospect in the game. Contrast that to Konnor Griffin, who, while a year older than Made, traversed the same levels of the minor leagues and stole 65 bases, slugged 21 home runs, and also produced excellent defense at both shortstop and in center field, and Griffin certainly gets the nod for now. Made's age is part of this, and we should expect some rawness in the tools, but that doesn't mean we can't investigate how the Brewers will cut this diamond to produce the best possible results. The Front Leg Jesús Made's issue isn't that he struggles to make quality contact, nor that he doesn't hit the ball hard. It all comes down to elevating the ball. Aram Leighton was talking about Made recently and mentioned that his average launch angle on hard-hit balls was just 5°, meaning his barreled balls weren't leaving his bat at angles that could clear the fence and instead were more predisposed towards doubles power and hard-hit singles. His best quality contact was averaging a low line drive, limiting his offensive ceiling. Again, Made is just 19 years old and has plenty of time to work on this, but something Del Chiaro has noted in the past is how Made's weight at the point of contact, especially from the left-hand side, is very much on his front foot. Here's a freeze frame from a ball Made almost took out to the opposite field (impressive in its own right, given his age), but I thought it best to highlight the mechanics on one of his better swings. If you look at his right leg, his entire weight is balanced on it just before contact. He tries to lean back after in an effort to gain more natural loft, but the sheer weight on that foot (he could almost stand on one leg here) reduces the tilt he can get from the left side, and it prevents him from accessing more loft in his batted ball profile. From there, Made continues to see his weight moving forward over that leg, with his head in front of his hips as he gets too much momentum forward, creating what is a very flat bat path. Yes, he manages to barrel the ball and almost slices it under it enough to take it out of the park, but it's not a consistent way to gain that launch angle. The most remarkable thing about this contact is that he sliced under the ball, using a steep-ish bat path to backspin underneath the ball. How he blasted this ball as far as he did, I have absolutely no idea. It's absurd and speaks to the raw tools the Brewers are working with in this instance. The second video below is from a side angle and presents a different view of the issue. You can see Made doesn't get quite so on top of his lead leg, but his weight is moving forward too far and preventing him from getting that natural loft. Even as he's finishing his swing, the head and the body weight are continuing to move forward through the swing, actually diluting some of the rotational power he's generating and keeping that plane of his swing on a very flat arc. Let's contrast this with someone Jesús Made has oft been compared to, Ketel Marte. A fellow switch hitter with lightning fast hands and covering the middle infield, it feels an apt comparison, and the Brewers would love to see Made find the same level of home run threat out of his physical capabilities. You can see below how Marte's swing looks more balanced at impact, using his lead leg to push his hip and weight back, sling-shotting his bat through the strike zone while also creating a more upward plane for the bat path as he leans back at the point of contact: We mentioned hard-hit launch angles earlier, and these are going to be key for Made's development. For a player who hits the ball as hard as he does, you want to see those barreled balls going for extra bases and home runs, not singles through the infield (a profile Brewers fans will be acutely aware of with Christian Yelich). In 2017, Marte hit six home runs in 70 games, not dissimilar to Made, A couple of seasons later, he instituted changes to his leg kick allowing him to stay more on his back leg, leading to an average launch angle going from 5.2° in 2018 to 11.7° in 2019, all while increasing his average exit velocities and creating even more consistently hard contact. His 2025 hard hit launch angle was 12°, almost 7° above Made's, but his transition in 2019 shows that, with a more optimized loading pattern and weight transfer in his legs, Made can achieve that relatively quickly if all goes according to plan. Looking at the freeze frames of the follow-through, you can see how the weight had shifted through and after the point of contact. Where Made's weight continues to move forward, leaving his head actually ahead of his hips, Marte's has kicked backward, creating a more upward path to the baseball and allowing him to do a lot more damage. As previously mentioned, Made is still just 19. He will be until May this year, and he's likely to be playing at Double-A Biloxi. He's a top prospect for a reason, and it's because people can dream on the tools and freakish athleticism he possesses. If he can find a way to get into his back leg more, particularly from the left side (where he should see more plate appearances), Made will go from being a consistent, strong performer and potential All-Star at shortstop to a perennial MVP candidate. His recent Instagram stories suggest this hasn't been a point of emphasis yet this offseason, still putting a lot of weight on his lead leg, but it's something Brenton Del Chiaro is acutely aware of as the minor league hitting co-ordinator. The Brewers' organizational philosophy is not to step in unless the player approaches them, but with Made now in the upper minors, I would expect to see this emphasized during 2026 spring training and in-season work. It's certainly something to keep an eye on, especially in games. It's not a monumental change, in fact, it's relatively subtle, but the difference it could make to Made's offensive profile is startling. View full article

I think this might be a great shout tbh, there's been times I've trawled through forums to find notes and tidbits you've been able to share

Alexander Mercedes video has a gorgeous rhythm to it

A rephrasing of the trade might be, would you trade Luis Pena (#18 prospect per MLN) for Tai Peete (Seattle's No. 11 prospect per pipeline) and Gabe Speier (2.61 ERA in 62 innings in 2025) I'm not as high on Pena as some, but even then you'd be trading away huge upside for a 7th/8th inning reliever and a throw in position player prospect with some potential and some question marks to boot. It feels fairly uneven whichever way you look at it

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Aww shucks, thanks guys! Really appreciate the love, glad you enjoyed the piece!

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images DL Hall had some injury problems with the Baltimore Orioles, but his stock rose as a top 100 prospect from some elite swing-and-miss pitches. His fastball was given an 80 grade by Baseball America, and it appeared that his command, once an Achilles heel, took large strides in the back half of 2023. The Brewers had every right to dream on his upside as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. Alas, this hasn't materialised. Hall's fastball has slowed down by a tick on average, but it's important to remember his time with Baltimore in the big leagues was in a bullpen role. If we break it down to his Triple-A results, when he was prolific in racking up strikeouts, you can see the fastball shape actually improved with the Brewers, seeing slight increases in velocity, spin rates, and a lower vertical approach angle: Thomas Nestico's model gives us a great basis for comparison, but I think Jeremy Maschino's at Pitch Profiler might give an even better indication as to what's changed for DL Hall since 2023, and why he's causing hitters to swing and miss a whole lot less. To really analyse the difference between DL Hall's 2023 arsenal and the plethora of strikeouts and ugly swings it induced, compared to the 2025 pitcher we saw for the Brewers, first, we have to deconstruct what made him so effective. Hall's Slider Has Lost Its Seam-Related Movement Below is the breakdown of DL Hall's pitch movement, separated by Magnus (i.e., spin-related effects) and non-Magnus (seam-oriented movement). I wrote about the subject here earlier this month if you need a recap, however if you're up to speed, let's dive in! The large benefit of non-magnus movement is that it's more deceptive to the hitter. They can pick up spin out of a pitcher's hand, but non-magnus is far more difficult to anticipate. Some pitch types are affected more than others, but it's interesting to note the amount of additional rise DL Hall achieved through seam orientation in 2023 at the Triple-A level, far more than is common for a slider (seen in yellow). Let's contrast that with 2025: The non-magnus-affected movement has almost disappeared, while the spin-related movement is essentially the same as in 2023. In essence, because of the way the baseball's seams are interacting with the air resistance, DL Hall is getting less late movement on his slider. It's affecting his Stuff+ grades, dropping from 107 to 101 per Pitch Profiler, and is getting considerably less swing-and-miss as a result. Is DL Hall In The Dead Zone? A "Dead Zone" pitch moves exactly as a hitter expects and finds it easy to square up. Jeremy Maschino attempts to quantify this dead zone to also include the arm angle a pitch is thrown from, which drastically affects what should be considered dead zone. For example, from your average arm angle (say your three-quarter slot), getting 20" of induced vertical break (IVB) would be considered exceptional; however, if you have a high delivery point like Trevor Megill, that IVB is considered far less of an outlier and thus easier to hit. Below is Hall's dynamic dead zone in 2025, with the circles showing his actual movement and the shaded areas showing what a hitter might expect out of the hand: Immediately noticeable is that the fastball (red) and curveball (blue) are moving exactly as expected for his delivery, but he does get some additional movement on the changeup (green) and slider (yellow). You might also note some dispersion in the arm angles from which each of these pitches is thrown (these aren't large differences, but they are further separated than his almost imperceptible release point in 2023). These movement patterns are dwarfed by his 2023 iteration: You can see that the curveball and fastball remain quite dead zones in terms of their movement, but the slider and changeup are massively changed. As we discussed earlier, the slider has changed shape completely, going from a pitch that rose over four inches more than expected in 2023 to a pitch that dropped two inches more than expected in 2025. That's six inches of separation that has impacted his strikeout potential. Playing for Triple-A Norfolk in 2023, the changeup registered an incredible 50% whiff rate when hitters took a swing, and this rise is part of that. We commonly expect changeups to drop down and away, but in recent seasons, we've seen a new type of changeup, such as those by Drew Thorpe of the White Sox and even Tobias Myers in 2024, that rise more. The key here is that changeups are based around deception, and the closer they can mirror a fastball before separation, movement-wise, the more effective they can be. How Deceptive Is Hall's Delivery? With the additional rise, it made Hall's dead zone fastball and his changeup both play better against live hitters, aided further by how similar his arm angles were in 2023. He averaged a 39° arm angle for his slider, changeup, and fastball in 2023, whereas he now varies from 41 ° to 45 ° in 2025. This isn't a huge discrepancy, but it is notable for a pitcher who thrives on deception. Hall's delivery involves a lot of rotation, almost turning his chest towards second base, meaning the ball springs out of nowhere. He still retains much of the same natural deception in his delivery, and it's one reason he's been successful without the swings and misses of yesteryear, managing an xWOBACON of .298 in 2025. He's not far away from the elite swing and miss artist he showed as a prospect, but that seam-related movement seems to be the key, and it may come from his altered release point. So, to summarise, DL Halls' high-end promise in 2023 seems to revolve around two things: Non-magnus (seam-oriented) movement that helped both his slider and changeup "rise" to miss bats Deceptive delivery and arm angles It's likely the altered arm angles are an effort to improve Hall's long-term injury outlook. Still, they may have negatively impacted both his ability to unlock the seam-related movement and the deceptiveness in his delivery. It's an actual risk-reward scenario for a player with multiple long-term injuries in his past, but if the Brewers want to unlock DL Hall as a dominant rotation arm, they may need to take that risk. Hall is a candidate for the shuttle between Triple A and the big leagues this year, having failed to establish himself in 2024/25, so this may be worth it for both parties at this point. If he can rediscover his release point, and with it his non-magnus movement, there's an outside chance DL Hall can become more than a swingman in the bullpen. It's not guaranteed, but there is a chance. Without that deception, he will struggle to establish the fastball and get the swings and misses needed for the next big step in his development. What do you think of DL Hall's outlook? Where do you think his strengths and his flaws lie? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article