Jake McKibbin

It's quite a common trend in international drafts, though I was listening to a podcast recently talking about the Astros identifying talented pitchers several years after their initial 16 year old availability, but at that age there's a consensus that there's not enough time to develop pitchers to being major league ready before the rule 5 draft

I agree on both points here, and as @JohnBriggs12said, it's maybe more the bloke halfway in the outfield that'll be an advantage It is interesting how he keeps his SO rate very much under control, and hopefully can help him with a little luck BABIP wise to make full use of those balls in play

I think they may keep hold of him as long as possible, because if you're looking for one scenario that MIGHT give him AB's, it's the roster time manipulation So, if they are looking to manipulate that extra year of service, Frelick, Turang, Weimer are all staying down til mid may, making him a 5th outfielder/backup (or even 3rd choice) DH. This still doesnt sound likely, but with the injury history of Winker and the desire to give Contreras some breaks, I think they may want him around if Winker plays 80 games, but if he plays 130-140 then Hiura is surplus to requirements That's the only scenario I currently see for him for playing time

Just finished having a look into some of his ratings and reviews when coming through the minors while working my last blog, and noticed that he was actually getting a lot of praise for what is a strong arm, and what they called "average framing skills". It seems there is quite a disparity between his top of the zone vs bottom of the zone framing, and these stats are brilliant! Thanks for the well put together article

For sure, Tellez ripped a lot of balls through this area, and should hopefully increase his impact, but I've tried to avoid too much discussion on this as I don't have a ton of data on the impact that marginalising the shift will have (I say marginalising because there will still be someone positioned just the other side of the bag at 2B)

For part two of this series, I'm going to focus a little on Jesse Winker, particularly his injury history. Historically, despite regular injuries throughout his carer, Jesse Winker has a career slash line of .270/.374/.463, with several healthier seasons comfortably above .900 OPS. He has struggled through shoulder dislocation, abdominal strains, intercostal issues, and knee issues. To focus on his two most recent injuries, I've looked in a little more depth to see the return timelines. Starting with the neck, Winker first suffered a neck strain in September 2019 and missed the last month of the season because of it, and the following year he came back with his first .900 OPS season (albeit in shortened 2020). It wouldn't have been as severe as the bulging disc he had surgery on, but perhaps an underlying weakness that caused the issue. In 2019, Brandon Nimmo had a bulging disc, although he healed naturally due to it not being ruptured. Nimmo never seemed to have any issues with the bat after that, regularly finishing the seasons with a .800+ OPS, even though at the time of the injury, he had batted .171/.312/.224 before going on the IL, showing the size of the short-term impact the injury can have on your swing. The neck injury likely doesn't take any real adjustment/recovery time when back in the batter's box. Meniscus clear-out in the knee is a much simpler surgery than most associated with this area of the body. It's a repair of the cartilage between the femur and the joint to prevent friction which causes pain while moving. It is a minimally invasive surgery, very common in high-impact athletes (i.e., those running and moving on harder surfaces, less common on grass surfaces). It can often, several years later, require more serious surgery as the joint is more likely to be unstable; however, in the near future, it is a quick and relatively seamless recovery. Brandon Belt had the same surgery in 2015 and hit 275 with 17 home runs the following year, playing 156 games. It can be much harder to recover from as you get older, but many players, such as Jazz Chisholm and Luke Voit, have returned and recovered well at the plate. The underlying issue with Winker is likely to be less about his injuries from last season and more about what injuries he'll be dealing with this season. He played through them last year for 136 games, and his previous high was 113 for the Reds. Suppose the Brewers get 120 games out of him with relatively minor health issues, and the DH hopefully removes some of the strain on his body in terms of the wear and tear of the knee and other joints or impact dives in the outfield. In that case, they could expect at a baseline an OPS of over .800 and potentially be hopeful of their first .900 OPS bat since 2019. His record at American Family Field is bonkers, with a 1.032 OPS in 32 games; he regularly demolishes sinker ballers (I remember he had a real fondness for Adrian Houser in one specific game). We'll see a little extra focus from him in his contract season to get that bag. And even if he doesn't hit with the power we're used to seeing from, his eye at the plate provides a reasonably high floor from which to project that he'll be comfortably better than Andrew McCutchen as DH, even on his worst day.

This isnt a fair comparison at all Brian Anderson hit 215 vs Righties, and 247 vs Lefties last year for instance in 73 AB's In 21 he hit 158 vs lefties, but in only 57 AB's in 20 he hit 286 vs Lefties in 56 AB's, and 243 vs Righties Given injuries in 21 & 22, I'd say go with the average data which suggests he's 67% more likely to be better vs lefties (although realistically its all such small samples) and he's still going to be more effective than Keston who literally cant hit them at all He's still a career 238 average vs lefties which isnt too bad compared to what Kestdaddy put up. Might not be ideal but lets not get too down about the thought Turang has also shown pretty even splits, but basically the Brewers have signed a vet option who could be a bounceback candidate injuries permitting

Looking at his Baseball reference its interesting to note a couple of changes from 2018/19 vs 21/22 His SO% jumped from ~20% to 26% He hits a LOT of balls up the centre 2019 in terms of his ISO sticks out like a sore thumb, and I dont think he's that guy. Although I could be wrong as he did maintain it in 2020 (depends how much that counts) pre injuries - 120 ISO vs 207 ISO It seems like even in 2018 part of his offensive value was his ability to get On Base, without a ton of power, and its whether the Brewers can help him reduce SO rate (they've done very well with this recently) And what caused his defensive numbers to drop so sharply? Be interesting to see how he does in a more hitter friendly park, and given almost every hitter seems to suck when they go to Miami, its possible there's a little something to unlock

So I was thinking recently about the number of quality batters required by teams who succeed in the playoffs, and how the Brewers compare and had a brief look into the stats. Taking an .800+ OPS as a good barometer, the Brewers had one hitter last year who passed this mark (Hunter Renfroe, now gone). The Astros had four qualified hitters breaching this mark, including Altuve with .900+ and Alvarez with over 1.000. The Phillies had Bryce Harper (included as he did have 370 PA's), Kyle Schwarber & JT Realmuto. The Dodgers had Trea Turner, Will Smith, Mookie Betts and then Freddie Freeman with a .900+ OPS. Yankees had Aaron Judge with 1.100 OPS (almost counts double) and Anthony Rizzo. In other words, a team seems to need at least two, and probably three comfortably above average hitters to be successful. This brings me to Tellez.... if I told you going into 2022 that his walk rate would jump 3% and ISO would go from .170 to .240 you'd be thinking "come to daddy". However his final slash line didn't quite bear fruit, with a .219/.306/.461, and in particular the average - he hit for .247 Career average in 850 AB's, and had an xBA of .252 last season. I actually lost count of how many times, especially in the first few months, he was roping balls just short of the wall, and by the end of May, he was top three in expected slugging percentage. He's never really going to be a high average guy, with a launch angle of around 15 degrees (also moved up last season by 2 degrees), he is a definite slugger, and although the reduced shift may help a little, it's unlikely to make a huge difference for him. That being said, projections have him expectedly batting around .245-.250 range, and I think he even has the ability to be a .260-.270 hitter based on the quality of contact he produces with average exit velo's in the 91-92 range. His expected slugging was higher than Mookie Betts, Vlad Guerrero Jr, J Rod, and just below Kyle Tucker/Goldschmidt, and just ten points below Pete Alonso. Projecting these stats out, and with his slugging ability, I think it's actually quite possible that an .800 OPS is his baseline for next year, and I think he has the potential for even an 850+ season. I think last season, despite the 35 HR's was actually a down season for him in many ways. A bounce back to the mean could mean the difference between 80 RBIs and 100 RBIs, particularly if his home runs come with men on base. Pete Alonso had 15 solo shots out of 40 HRs (37.5%), whereas Rowdy has 19 out of 35 (54.2%). The other real standout for me is that he's projected to half his number of GiDP outs from 20 to ten next season, whether this is shift-based or not I'm not sure but again could make a small yet noticeable difference to the offense. As such, Tellez is one of the players I can see being a five hole hitter who can really take this offense to the next level if he can regress to his career norms in terms of BA while maintaining the improvements he made in ISO and walk rate last year, and if the brewers can put men on base in front of him a little more often.

According to a recent poll conducted by MLB, the Dodgers have one of the top three farm systems in all of baseball, and honestly that should be a shock given the picks they've been getting (and perhaps a relief that they haven't had the top of the draft picks to work with, or we would maybe see multiple phenoms in this organization). Obviously the draft is a little bit of a crapshoot, and it's tough project for injuries, development, and I think the mental approach of the player combined with work ethic is as important as physical characteristics. Baseball does build a strong sense of character but to go from being the guy to just a guy is not easy, and takes some getting used to. Potential alone doesn't get paid big money, and its why I think teams with less scouting resources maybe don't draft as well, because they don't see the player dealing with adversity, what he does in the dugout, how he conducts himself as a leader. A great example is the life and soul Willy Adames brings to the Brewers, and how there's that real comfort in him in high leverage situations (as there should be, the guy hit .301/.370/.571 with RISP last year). It makes the player not just the guy if they pan out, but he becomes "our guy", and when the inevitable downs of the season hit, you need these guys to step up and drag the team forward. Dodger scouts are actively told to prioritize players who they think can mentally adapt and thrive to big league ball, and trust them to develop their skillset more effectively with that basis One standout for the Dodgers is the amount they invest in player acquisition, scouting, coaches, coordinators, and analysts is huge, and they use their sizable streams of income to do so. They do have a high degree of turnover with staff being poached for higher positions, but they identify talent and ability in these areas to make sure they not only identify the best players available to them, but more importantly create an environment that's perfect for the growth of these players. Coaching is at its purest form when players have development ahead of them, rather than just tweaks, and the Dodgers seem to be far and away the best at taking their talent pool and making the most of it. The Brewers are actually replicating their drafting model currently, of using the most projectable stat (plate discipline , walk rate, strikeout rate) and adding power to it from there. Seager, Bellinger, Gavin Lux and many more were all hit first players who developed power. However, the coaching part is designed to be as major league-like as possible, with most coaches being encouraged to adopt a laidback attitude to transferring advice rather than overloading prospects with information. Walker Buehler commented “How laid back and egoless most of our coaches are, it really helps. I always talk about summer ball coaches or high school coaches or college coaches trying to put their stamp on you. I don’t think many guys do that here, and I think it leads to a really collaborative effort.” This, along with their model of really encouraging the Rookies to be open, outspoken and themselves (which not all clubs do), translates to prospects making the transition from upper minors to the major leagues much smoother than most. They also put a lot more onus on the player with this approach to seek ways that take them from good players to great players, difference makers at the major league level, and this approach, from my personal sporting experiences, enhances the self confidence in your ability to adapt and become better, and also creates a drive to further learn and develop. The act of challenging oneself is far more satisfying than a response to the challenges of others The coaching ticket translates to an appeal at the major league level too. Noah Syndegaard actively took a lower deal than he could have to go to LA and develop as a pitcher, and they have a high track record of pitchers outperforming their recent seasons (Andrew Heaney and Anderson last year are good examples). Part of this is the quality of the defense the Dodgers put out which helps most pitchers do better than their FIP and expected stats suggest, but also their developmental abilities with pitchers. The pure number of quality pitchers and hitters at the upper levels of their farm is crazy, Andrew Heaney - 31. ERA, 3.39 xERA, 3.75 FIP Tyler Anderson - 2.57 ERA, 3.1 xERA, 4.1 xFIP In their farm at the moment they have: 1. Diego Cartaya - International prospect with a big bonus so less under the radar 2. Bobby Miller - Nearly all his pitches ar at least + (70 fB, 60 CH, 60 Sl, 55 Curve) and taken 29th in the 1st round of the draft 3. Miguel Vargas - Picked up for 300,000 internationally, so not a first round, or even second round equivalent pick, won a batting title in 2021, and took no steps back at AAA in 2022 7. Gavin Stone - A 1.48 ERA across the minors, including a 1.16 ERA in AAA, taken in the 5th round. What on earth 6. Ryan Pepiot - 3rd Round (Pick 102) had a 3.47 ERA in 36 innings last year, and although occasionally struggled with walks, he had a 200 BAA It's not just the single talents they're producing, in fact it's the quantity as well as the quality, seeming to maximize the vast majority of the talent in their system, in a way others can only dream of. Regarding the Brewers system, Stearns was famous for not being overly amused with a large scouting department but I think they're invaluable to the organization, and that can be seen from the Brewer networks in the international draft where they have signed very well in recent history - unlike the Dodgers, actually. I also think that improving upon the dietary advice and food provided to prospects as well as lodgings, could go some way to fostering better development, as well as prevention of injuries. Sleep and nutrition are so vital for our body to retain information and develop at all parts of our life, and in the minors this isn't seen as a priority for most teams. Finally, fostering that similarity in approach and coaching from majors to the minors can really help to ease the transition, and maybe reduce the talent that is considered AAAA. A player who is confident and feels at home upon reach the bigs will likely outperform those who don't. These players aren't robots, and in one of the biggest moments of their careers, that comfort factor makes all the difference. The slightest bit of tension can throw off someones swing or throwing arm, and in a game of small margins, it can be the difference.

Unfortunately this is off the table now, shame as I think he'd have been a great piece for the number of rookies around this team

Is it in any way fair to compare Chourio to Singleton when one is 18 and one is 20? I'd also point out Chourios numbers at Wisconsin were exceptional especially considering the BABIP at least 50 points lower than I'd expect of a speedster in high A Obviously he needs to keep developing but all the scouts are talking about his swing, the exit velos for a guy his size, and it seems very mookie like/ rodriguez like. Obviously time will tell, but if he fills out that frame at all, and can develop slightly to cover the pitch away a bit better, watch out, Big time

I think if you're talking pure value in terms of trade values and what you'd get in a return, Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta are top of the list (Peralta because of his team friendly deal) Chourio could be in that group and was suggested he'd have been 1-1 in this years draft, comfortably by Keith Law Adames would be next at Number 5, and comfortably so Urias may be 6 due to his contract and + Offensive bat, plus he's a quality defender 7-10 take your pick

Kim was 3.7 WAR but definitely played up a little, and I dont think he'll have another season like that, plus the bats poor. I'd say if you want premium defense and a stable 2 WAR you'll probably get that from Turang, who I'd imagine will put up similar numbers

Perkins is a filler who's likely to not be wanted to start many games at all Winker is a defensive liability for emergencies/rotating yelich So Taylor + yelich + rookies, I'd want a third competent outfielder so the pressure isn't all on the rookies, and maybe allow service time manipulation

Perkins is a filler who's likely to not be wanted to start many games at all Winker is a defensive liability for emergencies/rotating yelich So Taylor + yelich + rookies, I'd want a third competent outfielder so the pressure isn't all on the rookies, and maybe allow service time manipulation

Santander for Houser would also be a fairly even trade... Orioles could do with some pitching and Brewers may need a right handed hitter and RF to avoid putting all the pressure on the rookies to instantly perform I really like Weimer but unsure if he'll instantly adapt to ML pitching)

Santander for Houser would also be a fairly even trade... Orioles could do with some pitching and Brewers may need a right handed hitter and RF to avoid putting all the pressure on the rookies to instantly perform I really like Weimer but unsure if he'll instantly adapt to ML pitching)

If the pirates got a serviceable pitcher that would be a great start for them, and needed Reynolds may demand Eury Perez though given his service time

If the pirates got a serviceable pitcher that would be a great start for them, and needed Reynolds may demand Eury Perez though given his service time

Looking at the Twins, Maybe Houser for Nick Gordon?

Looking at the Twins, Maybe Houser for Nick Gordon?

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1680271/whats-going-on-jesse-winker-mariners/ Found this very interesting Goes some way to explaining a bad attitude but also I kinda feel for him, because everyone preps differently and if he just turns up to play baseball and that keeps him in the fun side of things and performing well, he's just right. No one cares if you're performing well, but if you're struggling then the eyes turn, and I wonder if a bit more vet presence on the Brewers can rally around him a bit and make him feel more part of the team? Hoping the contract year helps him a bit too, and there's some give back from him as clubhouse is pretty important to the crew as well. Tbh i think its very possible the guy was struggling and depressed, and a bit pissy because of it but this year will see

Marlins have signed Jonny Cueto so maybe adds to the likelihood of a trade, if not now then mid season (they'd maybe get better value at that point with the added desperation)

Marlins have signed Jonny Cueto so maybe adds to the likelihood of a trade, if not now then mid season (they'd maybe get better value at that point with the added desperation)