Jake McKibbin

Even though they had a losing season doesn't mean they weren't trying to win. They definitely were

The dodgers definitely have questions in their rotation and some holes in their lineup Cardinals are hoping to god that one of their pitchers can perform like an ace Padres & Phillies have spent huge chunks of money I'd still say Brewers have a premier rotation in baseball, and the lack of depth killed them last year when injuries hit Hopefully improved offense (at least Winker will be better than Cutch by all estimations) So they've improved at least, and once you get in the playoffs, with this rotation all you need is a sharp burst of form and it's fair game

A bit of a nerd when it comes to the gym, sports etc and kinetic movements so would have pretty strong knowledge of this and how different muscles work together. I've done some studying around the topic but not a true professional by any means In short, the muscles contracting (and therefore exerting force in a movement of the upper body) If you're pulling something towards you (hands getting closer to your body) then you're using your back muscles (traps, lats, rhomboids), rear deltoids and biceps predominantly If you're pushing something away from you (hands getting further from your body) then you'll be using your chest, front deltoids, side deltoids and triceps Your core and legs provide balance and momentum (and occasionally kinetic coil) for most upper body movements to try and ensure all the energy input to the motion is being transferred to output (in this case, ball velocity).

Based on many recent comments about Steven Kwan being similar to Sal Frelick and him being a five WAR player last year, I decided to look into how comparable the two are as prospects. Steven Kwan's 2022 Season The most obvious reason for this comparison is that Frelick and Kwan are exceptionally good at avoiding the strikeout. Kwan was in the 100th percentile for both whiff rate and strikeout rate in the majors last year and the 96th percentile for chase rate. His whiff rate on two strikes is 6% against fastballs, 4.9% against off-speed pitches, and a "whopping" 13% against breaking balls, an expert level of contact. That being said, he is also in the first percentile for barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and the third percentile for average exit velocity, with his spray chart showing a lot of balls dropping in the shallow outfield. His power output mostly came from pulling pitches on the inner part of the plate, with four of his six home runs from this region of the strike zone. Despite this, he produced 25 doubles and seven triples last season, using awkwardly placed balls in play and his 60-grade speed to make the most of his hits and stealing 19 bases last season. Kwan was also a recipient of a Gold Glove in his rookie season, with 96th percentile outs above average in left field, mostly from his quality jump rather than explosive speed. All in all, this is exactly the type of player the Brewers missed last year. The Brewers hit just .207 as a team in the first inning in 2022, so to have a player like Kwan leading off with a tough AB, getting on base, and setting the tone for the game could make a noticeable difference to the team. Frelick vs. Kwan in the minor leagues Kwan spent much more time than Frelick on his way through the Guardians system, and it's important to note the progression made by Frelick even as he moved up each level in 2022. He hit .291/.391/.456 in High A Wisconsin over 21 games with a 15.2% strikeout rate at the start of the year, only to finish in AAA hitting .365/.435/.508 with a 7.4% strikeout rate over 46 games. Due to it being such a small sample size, his limited time in college baseball due to ill-timed injuries and bad luck, and allowing for him to develop as a hitter in his first full professional season, I'm going to focus more on his statistical output at the end of the season. Frelick was also a player who won defensive player of the year honors at Boston College for his work in CF (in his first season playing the outfield); he is a 60-grade runner, capable of flashing his speed both in the field and on the base paths, with nine stolen bases in 46 games at AAA and potentially more to come if the Brewers can develop his instincts when on base a little more (again similar to Kwan). You could expect someone with his speed, on the base paths at the clip he was in 2022, to steal more than 24 bases in the minors across all levels and be caught stealing eight times (a 75% success rate). Scouts also say he has a bit of work to do in terms of his defensive reads and routes if he is to stay in center field, hopefully working on these areas throughout the offseason and the beginning of this season. Frelick accesses much more of his power on the pull side but has demonstrated an ability in the minors to hit one out to the opposite field. He did have a higher BABIP than at previous levels. Still, his hit tool, ability to cover the shadow area around the strike zone, and the scouting reviews around the regularity with which he barrelled the ball should stand him in good stead. In other words, Frelick didn't just make contact; he made quality contact regularly. In college, he was recorded as having an exit velocity of 108mph, surpassing anything Kwan produced in the majors last year. In his last season between AA and AAA, Steven Kwan hit .328/.407/.527 with a 9.1% strikeout rate but an ISO of .200, roughly .50 points higher than Frelick produced. However, as mentioned in the first section, higher quality pitching can easily subjugate his power. His previous seasons loitered in the ISO range of .83 - .102, and he embraced pulling the ball more and improved his launch angle in 2021, hence the sudden development in his game. Kwan stole just six bases in his final season in the minors, caught stealing twice; not a great return for someone also given 60-grade speed, clearly developing on this when he reached the majors. Defensively he was said to have "the speed and ability to stay in CF, or play plus defense in the corner OF spots," which bore fruit by his performance in left field last year. His hitting ability involves more grinding than Frelick, with slightly more pitches per plate appearance, and he swung and missed at just 2.6% of pitches in the minors in 2021. That is, quite frankly, outrageous. Frelick has a better hit tool than Kwan by a small margin. Both have a very strong command of their strike zone with a willingness to grind out ABs (both approached four pitches per plate appearance in the minors), but maybe have a little work to do in terms of maximizing his approach on the base paths and his value in defense, both of which can likely be developed simply through more playing time and experience. It could be more optimistic to predict further progress from Frelick, given how little professional baseball he has played and the extent of the improvements he made in his first full season. Kwan would have the edge on Frelick regarding his plate coverage, though as one of the toughest outs in baseball, that's not derogatory in any way for the Brewers prospect. Also, when Kwan reached the majors, he reverted to an ISO of .100, seeming to lose the power differential he found in his final season of the minors. You can't project Frelick to be as tough to strike out as Kwan, but he will likely maintain his low strikeout rate and stronger power output. Keith Law was asked about the comparison, to which he responded, "No, Frelick's faster, a better defender, and I think he's going to make harder contact too." What do the Brewer fanatics think?

Just to add some extra detail to this, around the motion The Lat will be involved in a contraction phase, along with the rear deltoid and bicep on the preparation part of the movement, and in an extension phase (ie stretching out) as the shoulder, chest and tricep extend outwards in the throwing part of the motion. While the lat is engaged per se, the part of the motion that causes the damage is mostly the extension phase, a more explosive movement, and should be easily corrected through mobility exercises and some strengthening work. The shoulder affects so many different movements, the rear deltoids will work in tandem with the lats, but most of the strain comes through the front and side deltoids in the pitching motion. Most shoulder injuries actually come through the rotator cuff due to the stability of the joint always being under strain because of its involvement in so many motions. I'd suggest it's highly likely the injuries aren't related as such, but the shoulder is definitely the one to be more wary of, as so many fibres connect around the rotator cuff, and it's tough to strengthen in the short term. Even after recovery, quite often the scar tissue can impinge upon the range of movement too

Could this be taken as a specific effort not just to look to the future but to take a risk on upgrading now and winning now? It's a tightrope that's tough to walk, but Winker does have the potential to be the hitter we've really craved in Milwaukee for the last few years

I think similarly, probably on 5 days rest and using the early rest days to their advantage to at least ease into the season for first two months and see where they fit after that

True, but even then, Williams has been so elite since coming in, I think it's almost handier to keep in mind if you can find a really stable 8th inning and 7th inning guy, if you have others, trading seems logical particularly at the deadline, but not all of these guys are going to click in all likelihood

They can close, yes, but out of them, Uribe is probably the only one with the stuff to be a dominant closer rather than a league average one

I think the Brewers value a shutdown closer too much that unless Uribe develops into that role, even the thought of Williams being traded is off the table

Let's humour this thought for a second (given there were rumours the Brewers were sign stealing in 2017/18). The Astros were proven stealing in 2017; - Altuve 2017 had a WRC+ of 160, in 2022 a WRC+ of 160 - Bregman 2017 had a WRC+ of 125, 2018 of 152, 2019 of 162 - Springer 2017 had a WRC+ of 141, 2019 of 150 and hit 141 in both 2020 & 2021 again - Carlos Correa is the only player producing his career high WRC+ in 2017, and even then had nowhere near the falloff that Yelich has In 2019 in particular the sign stealing scandals were generally considered stopped, and Yelich had arguably the best year of his career. So I think it's highly unlikely this played a part in his recent demise

I remember going to a place with insane hot wings and eating them in the car park, blew me away! My only experience at then Miller park, but have to say I'd recommend it big time

I think it all depends entirely on his availability this season. If he's got any significant time out then maybe a deal like this is on the table (potentially) but the issue is he's just off the back of making 33 starts last season. If he makes 30+ this year then he's in line for a massive contract length and AAV wise, and that guaranteed money is absolutely essential given how easily a pitchers health can completely change them as baseball players. Burnes will almost certainly take a long term deal of 8-10 years and rake in, unless he needs an extra year or two to build up confidence in his durability. Obviously that isn't necessary if he's relatively healthy with a sub 3.00 ERA this season Otherwise he's essentially risking well over a hundred million dollars just to sign earlier, and he doesn't necessarily need that security at the moment

So the pitch was an 88mph changeup that couldn't have been more middle-middle if you placed it on a tee Yelich hit it 109.9 mph, which isn't a mind boggling exit velocity by any means, and he's hit balls much harder this year, more than likely a perfect combination of back-spin + the Colorado air took it that extra distance. There's no doubting Yelich still has power, with big time average exit velocity in 2022, it's just making the most of that power and getting it in the air.

I very much agree with this, plus a lot of reports are that Frelick has some defensive work still to do, so leaving him down to focus on that, as well as allowing him to continue the growth he showed last year as he moved up each level. If he's bashing down doors and Mitchell struggles then that's grand, but if Mitchell shows ++ defense, with .220 hitting and stolen bases galore, then he'll probably be the first choice until service time shenanigans are sorted

@Brock Beauchampwith a cheeky name drop on the Milwaukee Tailgate podcast

As I am sure few would argue, Christian Yelich has demonstrated one of the highest ceilings in franchise history. However, despite the disappointment of the last few years, it's important to pick out why he's been struggling. First off, let's dive into what the stats say has changed for Yelich since that infamous knee injury, first looking at the 2020 season, why it wasn't as bad as we thought, and then the following years where the back has possibly played up a little more. 2020 In 2020, he had a career-high average exit velocity of 94.0 mph, a hard hit rate of 55.6%, and a walk rate of 18.6%, which doesn't scream the "declining peripherals" of someone whose knee injury has demolished him. His launch angle on average was 7.1 degrees, which, to give context for him personally, his average launch angle was just 5 degrees in his 2018 MVP year. So why did 2020 feel like a down year for Yelich? Well, there's a straightforward answer: he started to whiff on fastballs, but with secondary pitches too. In 2018 and 2019, Yelich had no weaknesses for any pitch, hitting well across all areas of the strike zone. Yet in 2020, he couldn't hit anything other than a four-seam fastball and a slider. Every other pitch had a batting average below the Mendoza line and a slugging % below .370. Even with his better pitches, his whiff rate increased massively; in 2018, Yelich's whiff rates on fastballs and sinkers were 12.6% and 11.2%, respectively; in 2020, this increased to 26.9% and 22.2%. 2021 In 2021, Yelich had some back issues during the season, but his swing started to regain some control over fastballs again, dropping to a whiff rate of 18.8% and 10.6%, respectively, for four-seam fastballs and sinkers. However, the power wasn't there, particularly against breaking balls hitting .228/.246 in PAs finishing on the slider and hitting .105/.158 in PAs that finished with a curve. At times, it's looked as though his timing could have been better, able to foul off the fastballs but not barrelling them up. To back up the eye test, his most considerable power output has come against the change-up in the last two seasons, hitting to the tune of .274/.581 against it in 2021. 2021/2022 Pitch Breakdown 2022 In 2022, his whiff rate stayed below 20% on both four-seam and two-seam fastballs, but he increased his batting average and xBA by over .030 points, recording a .307/.469 against the four-seam version and a +12 run differential. He also took a big step forward against the slider, hitting .250/.398 but struggled with the curveball at .125/.188 and took a step back against the changeup, albeit with power as he hit .224/.466 against the pitch. His ground ball rate was 59.1% and had been increasing each of the last two years, with a particular propensity for contact classified as "weak" or "topped," a lot of which have come against breaking balls (backed up by his 2021 xBA against them of .210, xSLG of .211). However, in 2022 he did take a step forward in launch angle against breaking balls, allowing him to create a bit of power when he did make quality contact against them. To look deeper into the curveball issues, from watching the past few years, he has an issue picking up the curve when it's thrown to him, regularly chasing it as it drops well below the strike zone. It's an area pitchers are targeting, with 31.8% of a pitcher being thrown at him outside the zone in the lower half. He creates a lot of line drives and hard contact, with five of the nine zones producing average exit velocities over 95mph, and in the middle/upper half of the strike zone, he creates a high number of line drives. The issue is pitching in the bottom third or below, where his highest line drive percentage is 15%, yet contrast this with a few inches above that, where he manages 36% line drives. Below the zone, he whiffs 71% & 61% of the time vs. his ability to foul off pitches above the zone, to whiff rates at 36% and 25%, and a pattern begins to emerge. A vast, glaring weakness that he's facing, and one the curveball perfectly exploits, also is a leading cause in his ground ball rate. On pitches down and middle or down and away (In zone), the launch angle averages at -5 degrees, and this only worsens as the pitches drop out of the strike zone. 2022 K%/Whiff % He has the same swing that could cover every pitch, so it's possible that either through overthinking his approach, or the back injury in 2021, he's gone back to an approach that's been more engrained in him from his days with the Marlins. One big difference is in the 2019 vs. 2022 comparison; his whiff rate on curveballs (45.6% vs. 37.6%), sliders (46.6% vs. 32.7%), and changeups (39.1% vs. 33.9%) tell us that Yelich is potentially swinging more conservatively and taking less of a cut at pitches to maintain maybe a longer/higher quality AB, and would go a way to explain his decrease in average exit velocity from 94 mph to 91mph. However, for comparison's sake, it's also important to note that O'Neil Cruz had a similar average exit velocity at 91.9mph last season. In terms of his "run value" from his swing/take decisions, specifically focusing on the heart of the plate, look at the comparison between 2018/19 vs 2020-2022. A more aggressive approach in terms of what he swings at seems to pay massive dividends in results for him: His line drive rate in the lower part of the zone appears to be an area of weakness that has only sometimes been there, and it may be a timing issue rather than back-related. However, back injuries can have an impact in a variety of ways. If he can get a handle on even picking and laying off those low curveballs and pitches below the zone, we could see a dramatic improvement in his production this year. It's important to stress that it's a small area, targeted heavily, having the most significant impact on Yelich's performance, and it's not an all-encompassing weakness across the board. His ground ball rate is a product of pitchers targeting the weakness down in the zone, and the question for 2023 is - can he neutralize them? Should Yelich embrace a bit of swing and miss to utilize his power more often?

On the bright side, you could be paying $19 million to Cody Bellinger, who's per basbeall savant, worse defensively in CF than Taylor was last year, and even less of a hit tool

So while I understand this post, and I'm not arguing about production as I feel Frelick may be a better offensive producer However taking away HR's is in no way a viable way to judge them, that's like saying "take away the singles and compare them". Taylor shouldn't be penalised for being a better slugger Frelick also did it not against major league pitching but against AAA pitchers I do think he has the hit tool to perform maybe similarly to Luis Arraez, but this way of comparing the two just doesn't feel all that accurate to me

This time around, let's take a quick dive into William Contreras, his historical hitting, and how he has the potential to be a premier hitter for the Brewers. Development The blockbuster trade to acquire Contreras has undoubtedly been the Brewers' biggest move this off-season due to his All-Star production at the plate of .278/.354/.506 and the Brewers' recent history of markedly developing their catchers' defensive capabilities, particularly their receiving skills. However, Contreras hasn't always looked like the power bat he is today, taking six years to get past High A ball, and his power not really showing up between 2015-2020, with ISO numbers below .100 in three of those seven seasons. However, looking at his history in the minors, he had a relatively consistent strikeout percentage, capping out at 21.3% in 2019 but regularly in the 17-21% range. After getting his first taste of the majors the following year, his power numbers spiked, recording ISO's of .228 in 2021 AAA, .184 in 2021 MLB, and .228 in 2022 MLB, a huge increase that also coincided with an increased strikeout rate and walk rate, while also producing a much better batting average. The Braves reportedly worked very hard on simplifying his swing to allow his raw power ability to manifest, and in 2021 the organization was split on which of Langeliers and Contreras was the better prospect. Strengths Contreras ranked in the bottom 6% of the league last year in Whiff Rate yet was in the 90th percentile for batting average and expected slugging, suggesting that although he may swing and miss a lot when he gets his pitch, he makes the most of it. His heat map indicates he can swing a little too much at balls just above the strike zone but doesn't chase a ton elsewhere, with a chase rate in the 54th percentile last year, and his favorite pitch by far is the sinker, which he took for a plus eight-run differential last year in 299 AB's. He hits most pitches well but struggles a little more with the slider, according to the run differentials. He faced more sliders than any other pitch last year (413) with a .191 Average and .266 Slugging, whereas for all other meaningful pitches he faced, he had a BA/Slugging of: Sinker - .358/.672 4 Seamer - .301/.614 Curveball - .306/.444 Changeup - .292/.583 Cutter - .292/.687 While he appears like a slugger who can't hit for average due to his underlying whiff rate, pitches up in the zone being swung on and missed, and his strikeout rate, he can barrel the ball regularly to all fields (his spray chart is spread very evenly). This should give him a high floor regarding his on-base percentage, particularly given he has consistently developed as a hitter over the last three seasons, improving his power output, batting average, and maintaining steady walk rates. He also, despite a tendency to swing and miss, has relatively consistent xOBP for all parts of the zone, showing a propensity for quality contact when he does connect. Reviewing the comparisons in his StatCast numbers from 2021 vs. 2022 (and he did outperform these slightly in 2022), some notable differences include: - His Hard Hit rate, Barrel rate, and Sweet Spot % all jumped 2-3% - His xSLG jumped from .419 in 2021 to .479 in 2022 - His WOBA jumped by 0.67 points - He dropped his SO and Whiff % by ~ 2% - He destroys middle middle pitches. His xSLG was 1.048 in this area of the zone last year, xBA was .470 Weaknesses In terms of his weaknesses, Contreras had one particularly troublesome foe: the slider. As you can see above, he swings a lot at pitches down and away (although he does have an ability to make quality contact when he connects even diving out over the plate). The Strikeout and whiff percentage are something he will have to tighten up on in order to become less streaky at the plate. He expected stats of .169/.279 for a minus four run differential against the slider, the only negative score posted against any pitch last season, and a strikeout rate of almost 40%. Defense With league average pop time (mostly from his strong arm behind the plate, and some technical work to do on his transition and release), his bigger issue defensively is framing. He registered minus three framing runs in both 2021 & 2022, but it's something the Brewers have really specialised in developing, the most recent case being Omar Narvaez who was the worst in the league before he came to Milwaukee. To emphasize the difference this provides, he had a called strike rate on the edge of the zone of 45.1%, whereas league leader Jose Trevino had a 53.8% rate. Where Contreras particularly struggles is below the zone, as you can see below in a table created by Jason Wang of Brewer Fanatics (left hand side is Contreras, right is Trevino) Hope you guys enjoyed!

I think thats maybe a bit harsh on Tyrone, given he did have 2.1 fWAR and 2.1bWAR last year, and isn't anyone above 2 WAR usually a serviceable everyday player in the majors? He had above average defense in CF, popped 17 homers in 405 plate appearances, and all in all a lot of playoff teams would have loved to have him as a 3rd Outfielder. He's a good player if not a particularly high ceiling above what he's produced so far. He may not be exciting per se, but he's a quality outfielder and Brewers were lucky to have him last year

I think that's fair, I'd actually agree with you more if the DH wasn't in the National league I think in that situation the brewers may listen to offers, maybe more so if there are a couple of early season injuries. I'd say the likelihood isn't great, albeit possible, but also Yelich is okay enough in left field, his jump is awful but his speed can still kinda cover that a bit And I can also see if Frelick and Weimer are mashing at this level, that maybe Garrett Mitchell is optioned to work on a few things as I'm unsure if his success is as sustainable as it would be with those two guys (then again, he would be the best CF on the roster)

I'm kind of in the same boat, @clancyphile I'm a little curious, any reason you think the brewers would benefit more from trading him than keeping him around?

I think they'll want Ashby just throwing and developing this year, especially early on. He's got the raw talent just needs a little fine tuning by the looks of things, particularly in putting hitters away Actually it's probably akin to them getting 29/30 starts in the end due to off days being used efficiently, still slightly less but if you get 2021 Corbin over 2022, that's worth it, plus can always go to 5 man when injuries occur, I actually think it may be the right thing to do, particularly for Freddys health and Ashby's development

One thing is I cant necessarily see them going full 6 man rotation, but I can see them utilising their starters on 5 days rest to optimise quality and reduce injury risk. Woodruff and Peralta missed 22 starts between them last season But they'll use off days and keep Ashby working in shorter bursts out of the pen, or use him as a day 6 starter every now and then, but they'll probably use the off days and just space things out a little bit