BrewerFan

His average cap hit is 60M over the next 4 years. From '25 to '27 it's about 65. He's not taking any discounts.

It'll probably once again having him the highest paid QB in the game with another restructure. The 10-year 503M deal was just for accounting obviously. He got a ~4/220 extension before '23. That brought the total GTD money from 2020-2023 up to nearly 280M. His cap hit was 35 two years ago, 37 last year, 39 this year and then it jumps to the upper 60s the next couple years. So they'll likely restructure again, he'll probably get more money.

I've always been on that bandwagon! And I think most of the "rookie QB contract," talk came from Wilson with that incredible defense they had. It was a 5 of 6 year run that they were #1 with a single season they were #2? And yes, the QBs I listed were outliers and even Brady, as I said, they had a huge QB salary on that team, so does that even count? It's not like they saved their money on the QB position and put it toward other positions. They just had a great defense and early in Brady's career, he had to manage the game. Warner jumped into an insanely talented offense. Big Ben was good, but again, that defense and Mahomes is the closest comp to Love on here...IMO, and just that much more talented than everyone else. Not saying Love is Mahomes(though he looked like it at times)... And finally, Love is still pretty much on a rookie deal this year. 20M would be the 5th year option had they picked it up. It's likely to be around ~10% in the next couple of years(a little over, but hardly exorbitant). I know it's technically the most for a QB ever, but the GTD money is 80M less than Watson, the contract is actually cheaper overall than the Lawrence or even Tua deals. Tua gets less than 10M this year and his cap hit jumps to ~60M the next couple years. They really did. I still believe they were a Bakh injury away from winning a SB one of those two years, they were down one year with Rodgers still playing and then right back up there with Love the next year, now one of the SB favorites. What could you really second guess? They should have gotten a GTD 1st for Rodgers? LOL...it's really not a whole lot you could ask for from Gute that he didn't get. That 1st would have been...pretty nice, but I think the Break-up was at the best possible time between injuries and Rodgers..."opening up," about some things. I don't even know if some of them are true, but I'm glad Jets fans have to answer if he was following the lead of some other media figures questioning the validity of certain high-profile events at any point in time.

In fairness, I think a lot of that is Wahle kinda projecting. He's the first to admit that he was not at all NFL ready and his pass pro was terrible, so he pretty consistently says pretty much every OL is not NFL ready. It was Tom and Walker last year(when talking about what if Bakh can't play). But they picked a LT in the first Rd, a versatile athlete. If he's not playing LT, that's telling me the 3rd year LT we have is playing well as much as it's telling me he's adapting to RG well. If Walker can take that next incremental step from solid starter to really good starter, our whole OL is going to take a jump. I hope Myers can make a big jump as well.

Well...you're missing the real obvious one with the latest. That was Mahomes. I guess Warner would have been on a rookie deal(that's getting a little cute as it was either 2000 season, 01 Super Bowl or 2000 SB and '99 season. Between Mahomes and Warner, Brady(they had the 2nd ever 100M QB on that team though) and Big Ben, then Wilson. But no, the throughline is the great QB play and the defense. It's definitely overrated. It helps when a team squanders a bunch of picks like the 49ers have and they can afford to pay guys or when a QB takes a team friendly deal(which I honestly think Love's deal is team friendly, doesn't get up to over 42M until the 4th year...something like 20, 27, 36 and then 42. That's not stopping them from winning. Not if Love is 90% of the QB he was the last 10 games. And as I've said, I do not believe you can fluke your way into a 10 game stretch like that. It will mean Gute has to continue to have drafts more like '22 and '23 rather than '24. I loved the '24 draft, but getting players are marquee positions, impact players at the most expensive spots is going to be the key. Safeties, Off-Ball, C, RB...great job filling our needs, but the two prior drafts were the ones who put us in a position to be competitive.

I wonder how the Brewers go about the signing period in the next 2 days then. Do you try and get the kid you really want signed or are you moving on and ensuring you get EVERYONE else signed? Does he accept a late deal? Then what? You giving up on the other hard signs? Seems like a rare misstep by the Brewers, but at least they have fallbacks. Hoping for a 1 in 20 pleasant surprise the next couple days!

Oh...all that stuff is wild. I think it was the Motley Fool that had it's top two articles. One was about NVDA hitting 250 a share this year(so 6T market cap) and the other was how NVDA was going to have a massive 50% pullback. So you really get whatever information you want. Do you think we're in a bubble or are we still early on in the AI growth phase? Yes! But Wood, she's notorious in how AWFUL she is! Her price target is 2600 on TSLA...but she sold. She owned NVDA early...but sold. Last I'd seen, her 5-year returns were negative. She's largely in tech, she's been in some of the big winners early..and despite the last 2 years, '20, these great years in the market and she was roughly -1%. How is that even possible? You've had 3.5 years of really strong bull markets... I think there's a place for speculating. Throw some disposable income into a couple of long shots, but you really have to treat it like gambling. She's doing it on a massive scale and just destroying people's retirements. I'm thinking AMZN might be a sell now that she's come out and added to it(then again, so did Buffett). I like just unemotional, bottom line channels that recap earnings. There's a channel with Joseph Carlson. He's good at this. Chipstockinvestor is pretty interesting for me, but that's because I'm still so overweight in that area. They're obviously bullish. Everything Money is pretty solid as well as it exposes me to other stocks that I haven't really looked at. Oh, and a GREAT one for all the "this stock could grow 35000% in 5 years," is Dylan Rieger. He uses all the context clues to help you figure out what stock it is and he's seemingly indifferent, but it's for all the, "pay 99$ to find out," and he just ruins their little business model. It's wild how much irresponsible advice is out there though. Since I've gone from just 401K and IRA and sticking with ETFs(which I've kept) to a bit more of a growth-oriented and riskier strategy in my brokerage account. You also realize how irrational the market is. Alphabet just had a really good Quarter. Down from IDK, 190 to 160-ish. I try to not even look at my portfolio now. Just stay apprised of the big news and if something is going to fundamentally change, address it, but otherwise, if you like it, if you're confident, the short term is just a flip of the coin. Long term, you should be alright. Especially right now. Lots of volatility, people freaking out. We JUST saw this in April. NVDA was at 974 intraday ATH. Dropped down to 720 because another company didn't give a preview!

We have traded for relievers who've stuck, but this is more like adding Megill. A guy with dominant stuff. The difference is, he's had insanely bad luck. A .366 BABIP for a K/GB pitcher? You think that'll be the case in Milwaukee with our defense? I have a feeling people are going to like this...at least for the next couple years. If we gave up a young 20 year old who becomes something...then people make not love that, but there's nothing to not like about Mears.

I'm not trading Bitonti for Lowe, but I WOULD consider trading for Blake Snell. He's still throwing mid 90s, he's pitching for his next contract(I get player option) but his peripherals look great despite a terrible start, he's back, healthy and throwing well vs 3 good teams. I'm not throwing a ton at them in the way of prospects...but Attanasio says we always have the room to make a move. Snell back pitching well, he's healthy and gives us a TOR arm that's likely to come cheaper asset-wise than anyone else of his caliber. I guess who pays the deferred money for '25 would dictate how much you offer back in prospects....but that'd be a HUGE addition.

I'd forgotten he got 3/33.5 after a pretty poor year between SD and Milwaukee. All the more reason to acquire a guy like Mears. They're just so expensive. That's totally cost-prohibitive for a team like the Brewers. Spending 33M over 3 years for a marginal reliever(he was coming off that season, and ended up with a 5+FIP for the Brewers. I didn't know Herrera had to be added to the 40. I suppose that makes it make more sense. I'll probably never like the players we trade away, but I like Mears and he seems like an obvious breakout candidate.

2018. Just remember that year, those power arms ripping through even the Dodgers. If not for a couple of splitters by Jeffress that get knocked out, the Brewers are playing in the WS on the strength of a dominant BP. So...I ALWAYS understand just loading up on dominant BP arms. I want 9 guys who can throw in the upper 90s, get big Ks, get GBs. I don't love giving up a talented young arm just because I think the only way to really develop a great staff is by taking as many good young arms as possible and hoping they stick. Reece Olson would be nice this year. But pretty unlikely we gave up a guy like Olson. I know we got a guy back who could VERY easily be not just a good, but an elite HL reliever based on his stuff, his GB% and going from Coors to Miller Park... I've never looked at a Brewers team and thought...'eh, that's too many good pitchers. Don't need 'em.'

I think I'd agree with that. I was just reading a study talking about buying at all-time highs and how people are apprehensive to do it, but if you went back over the last 20 years and bought at the ATHs as opposed to buying at the EXACT perfect time in the market, you're talking about a 12.9% vs an 11.9% return(I don't remember the exact numbers, but they were within 1% in a best case scenario). And that's if you're absolutely perfect. ATHs are usually followed by more ATHs. Personally, the best method IMO is just take whatever Cathie Wood says and do the opposite. Cathy Woods with the 2600 dollar price target on...TSLA in 4 years. That's reasonable...

I don't. I don't buy the "weak class," thing. There's talent everywhere and every pick is a "weak class," when you look at how many misses there are...even in RD1. We're talking about a kid who could be a 1st rd pick in a strong class in 3 years of just in any given year could be a top 45 pick talent wise. So I don't think they're punting on the money, the pick, the year of development with a pitcher of this caliber. It MAY have made them more likely to take a chance on a kid who was a long shot to sign...but...they're not giving up on a top 68 pick just to push it off a year.

Bostic...I'm trying to not be too hard on him. If Peppers doesn't tell Burnett to go down, it's probably a pick 6 and game. Just WIDE open! But that one, the injury plagued year, the Bakh injury that cost TWO years. 2011 when we were flat. So many times. But Thompson never would have added McKinney this year or done so many things Gute will! That'll change. I'd hope they sign Tom...and perhaps it'll be cheap enough. I'd guess 4/80 after this year. But we'll try and improve our team using ALL means in the next 10-15 years. and Myers walks. If Watson has a big year, they may be able to get him on a discount...or a trade. The key is being able to put together good drafts, one after another. I think this year's draft class was the worst in terms of positional value(that happens when you are competitive and close to winning), but the prior couple were huge. Kraft, Musgrave, Wicks, Reed, Doubs, Walker, Tom, Stokes, Wyatt, Brooks, Wooden, so many players at important positions... The upshot is, while they will invariably have to let some of these guys go when they hit free agency, or maybe tag and trade(again, Watson if you don't extend him) you can turn them into picks. Take a little of the Brewers strategy and mix it in with equal financial footing and...then it just comes down to player development. In 10 years, I hope we're debating which draft class was the best and it's not just '22 or '23(or '20 due to Love). Thompson's classes really started to slip and then they had to rebuild on the fly(which Gute did beautifully). Just 5-7 years of continuity, I think we get at least a 5th Lombardi... Just keep replenishing the young talent, and identifying the right players to re-sign and you'll be good.

Yeah. It's nice. Look at what SF can do despite having really blown a lot of draft capital...but pretty much guaranteed you'll be competitive every year with a QB like Love. We didn't fail to win another Super Bowl with Rodgers because of his contract. We failed because we the drafting went down hill, we were conservative and we just choked away big games. But at least we were in them.

LOL...I didn't either until I was listening to McAfee a while back and he was talking about how tough of a negotiation it'd be...and then I looked up his agency.We really should look for a QB from Brady's old agency.

Well...being as they're the same person, that's very likely. And it's Rodgers's agent. The "Scott Boras" of the NFL. The guy gets every penny for his client. Which is a lot easier to stomach with the franchise tag, the transition tag, rookie scale, and a salary cap, but he still doesn't have players signing team-friendly deals. The thing I don't love here is the 4-year extension. I don't know if this starts this year and the last year or if it's an extension. If Love comes in at 4/220, I hope it's an extension. Doubt it will be, but it'd be nice. I'd guess we want 5 years.

Almost none of that is owed to Paxton by the team acquiring him. 7M, 3M in SB, 2M in 26M roster bonus. So it's a little bit of money for a guy with a much longer history of starting on a team that desperately needs a starter, not a guy who's gone 10 innings in his last 5 games. Moot now that the Red Sox beat made the trade, but he'd have been a nice addition.

We're doing this again? Earlier in the season it was that he was having production, but he wasn't hitting the ball hard enough, he didn't have a good enough exit velo. Now coming off a stretch in which he went 6 for 55? How about June? He was great in June. .280/.342/.421/.763 So...hasn't really been since Mid-May. I think you can do this with just about anyone. Take their biggest cold streaks, sandwich them in and the results are going to look bad. Take the same period for Contreras. .228/.287/.347 .634 Looks more like Blake Perkins than an #2/3 hitter.

Eh...that'd mean this was a BAD draft class. There should be ~40 players from a draft class with a 2.2 career WAR in 10 years. And again, I really struggle to understand why it took us giving a high upside young arm for a player that the Dodgers were DFA'ing. I still don't love that trade(I love getting Hudson)...but oh well. I'll have to console myself with the fact that Letson, Knoth have thrown well...and that we've got two 6'4 IFers on the left side who look like they have 30 HR potential.

Yeah, I see others are saying it's the GTD money past year one also. I have trouble buying that. You're going to be paying him 280M. Maybe they want his entire deal GTD? Maybe they want the final year GTD at an inflated price. The tag is 20% increase, so if it was like...65M or something, that's nearly 80M to tag him, I feel like it's gonna get done, but it'll be like Rodgers, no money left on the table. Which sucks, it'll hurt our team building, but that's Gute's job and I wouldn't take less if it were me.

Wow...J Love with a nice contract extension. 36M? Julian Love...he's earned it. I have some words for Matt Schneidman that wouldn't get past the filter here for simply tweeting "J Love has a deal," but I get it...engagement is important.

This is why I'd HOPED the Brewers would at least try and move Yelich in the off-season to a team like LAD, SD...LAA, Seattle, whomever. Good dude, really good player, but he's had back problems his whole career, now again, as he's gotten hot, he's out of the lineup, likely for the year. Just a kick in the gut. On the bright side(maybe)...he'll move past these back injuries. That was his take. I think it's incredibly unlikely, but who knows.

Yes, that's clearly their overall approach, but even with the LA players, they still will spend more on a guy they really like. Prep arms are much more hit and miss(probably less than LA players)...but it's also where you tend to get the best pitchers in Baseball. They're usually HS arms or they're early 1st rd picks. Always outliers like Woody and Burnes, but generally speaking. I'm sure if we'd drated Caminiti, we'd be paying him slot. Not much reason to think he'd go under slot and I have a feeling, substantiated by absolutely nothing, but just a feeling he wanted to go to certain teams. ATL, LAD, SD. You'd think his Uncle would be advising in some capacity. I just think you could go with more bites at the apple, but you're always still taking a bigger bite from time to time. Sure...as we view it today, it definitely is. But...obviously we don't really know much about Payne. I think if we sign him in Rd 2, people are likely very excited about it. I do trust the Brewers and it's not really just speed with him. The grade on his glove and then power potential are there as well. I wanted a HS arm or the kid from Iowa...but I also know...what I don't know! What I do know is the Brewers know what they're doing...ya know?

Ok...cool. So it's that time of the year. Now...are his feet quicker and can he get to his landmarks and read his blocks? Because if so, great...if not, he's not well suited for the ZBS. But the "best shape of his life," schtick!