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AdvantageSchneider

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Everything posted by AdvantageSchneider

  1. AdvantageSchneider
    https://ballparkdigest.com/2022/10/31/no-the-as-arent-on-the-move-to-las-vegas-yet/#:~:text=Yet%2C despite several years of,locked in%2C in either location. Yet, despite several years of exploration in Las Vegas, the A’s have neither agreed to a location for a ballpark or a plan to pay for it. “That’s correct,” Manfred said. “They have work to do in Vegas. They don’t have a plan locked in, in either location. I'm not holding my breath on the Rays stadium either. Let me know when they have the funding figured out. I've done the math. loss of payroll does not get you to $290M over 13 years. Please show me your math I'd love to see it.
  2. AdvantageSchneider
    So at the end of 2030 the lease expires where are the Brewers going to go play games? What city is going to pony up $300M+ to build a new stadium for the Brewers and why haven't they done this yet for the Rays or the A's? The Rays are desperate to get out of Tampa. They've even talked about playing games in Montreal. Are the Brewers really going to want to put up hundreds of millions of their own money for the new stadium too? Minnesota had to pay $170M for it's stadium. The Braves paid $372 for their stadium. If the Brewers can't afford to pay for some items on Am Fam how are they going to afford the down payment on a new stadium? The Brewers still have $80M to spend on maintenance from the 5 county tax. Let them use that and then we can discuss what expenses the taxpayer should cover. I have no doubt taxpayer money will go towards maintenance on the roof and some other vital areas. I don't believe we should be on the hook just because the Brewers want to redesign the club level or replace all the toilets or the concession stands or whatever. AM FAM is not going to collapse if we don't give them $290M. There is no reason to give them $290M just because the state is now flush with cash.
  3. AdvantageSchneider
    The planned use of funds is a listing of every area in the stadium and a number attached to it. It doesn't really say what they plan to do with the money. I doubt they even know. Just because the state has a large surplus now does not mean we should give it to the Brewers. The state and municipalities have a lot of needs. $290M is a lot of money regardless of how big the surplus is. I reject the Brewers are going to leave argument. MLB already has 2 horrible stadium situations in Oakland and Tampa Bay that they can't resolve. If there was some other city out there that would build the brewers a new stadium why wouldn't the Rays or the A's just move there?
  4. AdvantageSchneider
    I never said I don't know why professional sports teams get money for new stadiums. I disagree it is a good deal for the taxpayers. It's a great deal for the owners. If you really think Milwaukee is such a terrible place to live if not for the Brewers and the Bucks you should move someplace better and get the MLB and NBA pass.
  5. AdvantageSchneider
    I don't know what to tell you. It would be difficult to find a less pressing need than to give the Brewers $7M a year so they can put a golf simulator in Am Fam field or whatever they plan to do in the future. Call me crazy I'd rather spend taxpayer money on making sure we have adequate police and fire protection, enough teachers in our classrooms and make sure the rest of our infrastructure isn't crumbling. But that's just me.
  6. AdvantageSchneider
    I'm a CPA. I deal with taxes. As a result I follow state government closely. So yes I do know quite a bit about the original foxconn deal. I'd be happy to educate you if you would like.
  7. AdvantageSchneider
    There is the MECCA, the punchbowl social, and a few other new restaurants and bars there. There is also a lot of bars and restaurants that were there before the Fiserv forum. There's also a giant empty lot. In the meantime Lasry just sold his share of the team at a valuation of $3.5B. a 900% gain in the short time since he bought the team. Something tells me he and his other owners could have financed the project themselves just fine. And that's the way the game is played by these rich owners.
  8. AdvantageSchneider
    No, that's the average they'd need to bring in every year to pay break even over the life of the new lease. If you added in sales tax on Brewers tickets and merchandise you could slice $15M off the total assuming the Brewers revenue puts them in a break even position with their payroll.
  9. AdvantageSchneider
    You don't have to believe the field of schemes website. You can just believe all the economists that state that stadium funding is a losing proposition.
  10. AdvantageSchneider
    I've been a Brewers fan for 40+ years. I'm glad they are here. But as a citizen of Wisconsin I'm not willing to hand the Brewers a blank check of taxpayer dollars especially when there are so many other pressing needs in the state.
  11. AdvantageSchneider
    You have heard of FOXCONN right? LOL.
  12. AdvantageSchneider
    The subsidy proposed of $290M would extend the Brewers lease by 13 years. At a top tax rate of 7.65% the income generated by the Brewers and other teams payroll would have to equal just under $3.8B in total for those 13 years or an average of $291M, That would be just to break even. Obviously that isn't going to happen. So no it's a bad deal. You really can't spin it any other way.
  13. AdvantageSchneider
    https://www.fieldofschemes.com/2020/02/18/15793/the-wile-e-coyote-of-stadium-consulting-takes-on-brewers-stadium-gets-crushed-by-anvil/ “I refer to [CSL’s] approach as a ‘benefits-only analysis’ because it’s fundamentally one-sided; it never counts the negative economic impact of the taxes needed to fund the subsidy in the first place. And, unsurprisingly, it’s pretty easy to make arguments in favor of an idea if you ignore the cost,” said Dr. Michael Farren, a Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. “At the end of the day, peer-reviewed academic research consistently finds that subsidies, especially stadium subsidies, don’t work very well to create economic development, and may even reduce it in the long-run.”
  14. AdvantageSchneider
    With games getting shorter due to the rules changes how much bang for the teams buck will the Brewers really get out of any additional improvements to AM FAM? The stadium has already changed a great deal in its existence. I don't think they are going to be able to get a whole lot more out of it even with additional tweaks. Money to keep the roof working and all that is fine, but constant turnover in concession stands just seems like a total and complete waste to me. I think they would be better off converting some of their parking space into bars and restaurants. Make the stadium more of an attraction in the offseason, non-game days. But that's just me. Is someone going to buy a suite or club seats because of new branding or whatever? I would think quality of the team would drive that more than a new layer of paint.
  15. AdvantageSchneider
    You can be a brewers fan and also believe that the best use of taxpayer dollars is not to give a hundreds of millions of dollars handout to some of the richest people in the world. I was in favor of the original deal but would it have passed had the true cost to WI taxpayers been known at the time of the vote? I doubt it. I also doubt the people that voted for it thought the taxpayer was going to have to pony up another $300M 30 years later. I'm not blind to the realities of professional sports but I also don't think that it the way it should be, but that goes for a lot of things in this country.
  16. AdvantageSchneider
    WIthout a doubt this trade was made to clear some salary and playing time for the young OF prospects. After taking a deeper dive I think the Brewers may have had some concerns that Refroe would replicate his performance. If you take a look at his chase rate for his career it is at 33.3% which would put him in the middle of the league overall last year, however his chase rates the last two years are much worse 35.1% and 34.4. Those chase rates would put him in the bottom quarter of the league. HIgh chase rates are highly correlated with a sharp decline in offensive production and the decline historically begins with the age 31 season. Take a look at McCutchen's chase rates, they are 23.4 for his career. That's a big reason why he's been able to be an above average hitter into his mid-30s until last year. I'm not saying Renfroe is going to turn into a pumpkin overnight, but there are definitely reasons to be concerned he would duplicate his career year. That may have been an additional reason why the Brewers were shopping him so hard.
  17. AdvantageSchneider
    Is it a salary dump if they take that $11M and spend it somewhere else? I think we need to see what the opening day payroll is before we can say if this was a salary dump or not.
  18. AdvantageSchneider
    TLDR Not really much hope for you if you can't tell the difference in value between Woody and Renfroe. Not going to waste my time trying to educate you. Have a nice day.
  19. AdvantageSchneider
    You seem very worked up over the Hunter Renfroe trade. Much more than you should be. I suggest you get some fresh air go for a walk maybe and calm down. I'll address each of your points. FIrst on Wong. There was a lot of discussion on whether to pick up the option on Wong. I was surprised they did. You can certainly make the argument they shouldn't have. I can't speak to why they did but perhaps they don't feel as good about Turang as they do the plethora of OF prospects they have to replace Renfroe. As far as Woody goes, he's just turning 30 and is an all star caliber pitcher. I missed it but what year was Renfroe an all star? Best I can the only award Renfroe was ever given was NL player of the week back in 2016. So Woody is just that much better than Renfroe. That being said there certainly is a chance they could trade Woody too. As far as peralta goes he's 26 years old and on a team friendly contact. No reason to trade him even if he is coming off an injury. I would think a brewers fan would know these things and not need to be told these facts.
  20. AdvantageSchneider
    We are talking about Hunter Renfroe here not Mike Trout. We traded for him just a year ago giving up JBJ and two mid tier prospects. It seems reasonable to state that trading JBJ was a salary dump so one of those prospects was the payment for Boston taking on JBJ's contact. Which means last year when we got Renfroe he was worth one mid-tier prospect. That was when he only cost $7.5M and had 2 years of control left. This year when we traded away Renfroe we got one mid-tier prospect and two other arms. Sure seems to me that is the value of Renfroe and the Brewers did well to get what they did for him.
  21. AdvantageSchneider
    Yes but Boston is a better hitters park which is why his OPS+ was only 114 last year compared to 126 this year. Going by OPS plus which is a better metric than any of the stats you quoted his second best year was 2018 in San DIego. He was hurt this year too. For a small market franchise it's better to let go a guy one year too early than one year too late.
  22. AdvantageSchneider
    He'll be 31 next season. We most likely got his career year last year. If he was to replicate last season he'd probably be worth $11.2M but given he's on the wrong side of 30 i"m fine with some other team taking that bet.
  23. AdvantageSchneider
    Your statement just doesn't make a lot of sense. They were healthy last year and they followed the same procedures this year that they did last year. It's the nature of the beast that pitchers get hurt. That doesn't mean the Brewers were negligent. You haven't even provided evidence the Brewers have suffered more pitching injuries than other teams.
  24. AdvantageSchneider
    Nice to see Keston go deep with mom and dad in attendance.
  25. AdvantageSchneider
    Eric Lauer motivational genius. This was all just a ploy to fire the boys up. There are about to go on a tear. Book it.
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