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And That

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Everything posted by And That

  1. And That
    Here are the players the Brewers did not protect from the AAA phase of the Rule 5 draft - they can be selected by any other team for $24,000 and their new team inherits the remainder of the current minor league contract:
  2. And That
    Here are the players the Brewers protected from the AAA phase of the Rule 5 draft, but can be selected in the MLB phase:
  3. And That
    You can draft as many players in the Rule 5 as you have open 40-man spots. You can clear 40-man space up to the day of the draft.
  4. And That
    In addition to the additions of Troy Stokes and Trey Supak to the 40-man roster, the Brewers made the following roster moves in preparation for the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. Players on the AAA roster are protected from being selected in the minor league phase; players on the AA roster or below who are Rule 5 eligible will be eligible to be selected in the minor league phase as well. Promoted to San Antonio (protected from minor league phase) From Biloxi: INF Blake Allemand, INF Luis Aviles, RHP Preston Gainey, 1B Jake Gatewood, RHP Nate Griep, RHP Conor Harber, C Max McDowell, RHP Jon Olczak, RHP Cody Ponce, RHP Tyler Spurlin, INF Dillon Thomas From Carolina: RHP Rodrigo Benoit, RHP Phil Bickford, RHP Nattino Diplan, RHP Alec Kenilvort, RHP Nathan Kirby, INF Tucker Neuhaus, OF Joantgel Segovia From Wisconsin: RHP Nelson Hernandez, RHP Carlos Herrera, RHP Christian Meister, RHP Michael Petersen LHP Jake Drossner and RHP Josh Uhen were transferred from Carolina to Biloxi, but will be eligible for the minor league phase. I'll have a complete list of who is available for the minor league phase shortly.
  5. And That
    This would be the equivalent of us sending the Mariners Burnes, Trey Supak or Zach Brown, and Troy Stokes I guess. Probably a solid deal for both sides. And given Paxton's injury risk, hard pass on that if I'm the Brewers. Burnes for Paxton straight up would have been an overpay.
  6. And That
    Told by an American League scout regarding #Brewers Keston Hiura, "We all talk about the bat of Vladdy, with obvious reason, but outside of Vladdy, I'd call Keston the purest power bat I saw out in Arizona. He's just a special, special kid."
  7. And That
    The Royals have historically tilted pretty heavily towards the tools end of the tools-analytics continuum. I'm not saying they wouldn't be using the math when negotiating a trade, but they may value players more for different reasons. Corey Ray is a physical freak with demonstrated on the field performance and the Royals may value him with great regard much for that reason alone. There is a less than 1% chance I would trade Hiura for Merrifield, and I kind of doubt the Brewers would either. The good news is, with the Royals proclivity for toolsy players, I don't think it would take Hiura to get him.
  8. And That
    It would probably have to be an organization a bit behind in its scouting, though. I assume he probably would have signed with a team if he had been offered a major league contract and any team that likes him enough to take him in the Rule 5 certainly would prefer to have him for just a 40-man spot, not a 40-man spot with restrictions. I don't recall the players involved offhand, but it has happened a handful of times over the years that someone has inked a minor league deal and then been selected in the Rule 5. There is pretty intense bidding on the high-end minor league free agents (which is one of the reasons Dylan Moore got a big league deal). Teams have lost out while offering lucrative minor league deals on guys they really like, and the Rule 5 is a way to get those players you lost out on into your organization. Suboptimal obviously because of all of the Rule 5 restrictions, but it has happened.
  9. And That
    One thing I'll note about this, if you buy into this valuation: while the Brewers are 22nd overall, have 3.1x more value than the worst farm system, and the best farm system has 3.4x more value than the Brewers. They seem to be quite middle-ish. And I will go to war over the Brewers' depth being undervalued.
  10. And That
    Sort of related, sort of not, but here's FanGraph's new scouting primer. If you're wondering what OFP values mean when I use them, OFP is more or less interchangeable with Future Value (FV) as FanGraphs uses it. Think it's also fair to note that FanGraphs' FV errs on the side of caution in that the tend to try to go after the most likely outcome as opposed to a more optimistic outcome, so often their FVs will be lower than elsewhere. It's not unusual to see FanGraphs give someone a 35 FV and have that same player get 45-55 grades in more than one other place.
  11. And That
    Correct.
  12. And That
    He would have been a minor league free agent, yes. This was their only means to guarantee he came back next season.
  13. And That
    Just to compare the horizontal movement of Woodruff and Peralta, here's Freddy's first start against Colorado: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/horzspeed.php-pitchSel=642547&game=gid_2018_05_13_milmlb_colmlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3&league=mlb&pnf=&zlpo=&cache=1.gif And here's Brandon's longest outing of the year, 5/16 vs. Arizona: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/horzspeed.php-pitchSel=605540&game=gid_2018_05_16_milmlb_arimlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3&league=mlb&pnf=&zlpo=&cache=1.gif You can see that all of Woodruff's fastballs are clustered pretty tightly on the x-axis basically between -4 and -6. Peralta, on the other hand, is everywhere between +1 and -5. That's tells me that a)Woodruff has more consistent movement on his fastball and b)that Peralta is throwing more than one pitch there. I can't think of a single pitch, outside of maybe a knuckleball, that would have that drastic of a horizontal spectrum.
  14. And That
    I wonder if the release extension has anything to do with the data that seems to not jive with reality on its face. Tyler Glasnow is the other guy I think of right away when it comes to extreme extension, though he's like 5 feet taller than Peralta. Anyway, unless he ditched his 2-seamer this year, Brooks has him throwing exclusively 4-seamers this year, which I don't think is right. The other thing I can think of is that many pitcher's 4-seamer has at least some armside run. If Peralta isn't generating much of that, the delta between the cutter movement and the 4-seam movement may not be as great as it usually is. So it could be confusing to their system if the cutter is really cutting and the 4-seam isn't doing much of anything.
  15. And That
    They do not. There are at least three species of fastball they assign pitches to: Fourseam, Cutter, Sinker. There are Splitters as well, if you want to call that a fastball variation. There may be more as well. Check out Wade Miley's page.
  16. And That
    Interesting that Perdomo got an invite to camp - he's never pitched above A-ball. From a Longenhagen prospect notes column back in June: Twenty-four-year-olds repeating A-ball typically don’t find their way into our consciousness, but lefties that touch 96 must. Perdomo’s command has taken a significant step forward this year as he has nearly halved his walk rate (12.6% down to 7.6%) and is showing especially improved command of his fastball and fringey slider to his glove side. He creates a tough angle in on the hands of righties and sits 90-95 throughout his starts. He’s made enough progress that you can project him as an eventual lefty reliever.
  17. And That
    This combines two different pitches, though. When you mix data for a 4-seam FB and a cutter, the horizontal data (and probably the vertical data too somewhat) is going to cancel itself out.
  18. And That
    It's not just Peralta's movement, it's movement relative to the release point. Peralta gets so much unbelievable extension that any movement his pitches have gets magnified because the batter has that much less time to react to it. I do think his change has more upside than Woodruff's, FWIW. Peralta's induced some pretty ugly swings on that pitch in the minors.
  19. And That
    Punting on Paxton for a second, I wonder if they'd do a Woodruff/Houser/Diplan for Segura/Colome deal. Assuming Segura would approve the deal.
  20. And That
    Paxton's going to make about $22 million over the next two seasons and if healthy-ish, should produce in the neighborhood of 8 WAR (which might be generous). Roughly speaking, if WAR is about $9 million, that's $50 million in excess value. Just using Fangraphs' new prospect valuation model, I would have a straight up Burnes (60 OFP) for Paxton trade as an overpay on the Brewers' side. I have Ray as a 55 OFP guy, which would be a slight underpay in a straight up deal. Lutz and Erceg would be about in the same boat. So maybe Ray plus Devin Williams or something. If you think Ray is 50 OFP instead... A 50 OFP pitcher and a 50 OFP position player equal just about Paxton's excess value, which could mean something in the neighborhood of Adrian Houser and Troy Stokes. Or Houser and Ray. I think Zack Brown and Ray would be an overpay. And there's too much injury risk with Paxton to overpay for him. The Brewers don't need him that badly.
  21. And That
    Taylor's career wRC+ is 103, which means he's been 3% above average based on the leagues he's played in over his career. It's not dramatic, but considering he was a multisport athlete in high school that didn't focus on baseball until he became a pro, and was playing in A-ball as a 19-year-old, that production is hardly anything to turn your nose at. The Brewers are also not looking solely at stats for Tyrone, as he is a premium athlete capable of manning all three outfield positions well. There's still quite a bit of untapped potential in his game, and he has a knack for getting the bat to the ball - he's struck out less than 13% over his career. Contact, physicality, growth potential at the plate, defensive acumen - there's still a lot to love about Taylor.
  22. And That
    He was my #1 available minor league free agent infielder... and apparently the Mariners agreed. Good for Dylan.
  23. And That
    I don't think the Lutz rating is unreasonable at all. That's the beautiful thing about scouting. And also why top 100 lists, and especially the back halves of them, aren't that useful in prospect evaluation. I have Lutz at about a 55 OFP, which would very reasonably not only be included in the same range as Ray, but probably above him.
  24. And That
    Scouting report on Bubba Derby from Jason Pennini: https://twitter.com/jasonpennini/status/1060351009896026112?s=21
  25. And That
    At least by WAR, I think there's a pretty decent chance. By HoF standards, Vlad's career WAR was a relatively pedestrian 55-65 depending on the source. Mike Trout passed that this year. And like sveumrules said, Vlad Jr. is going to be getting a head start over his dad in terms of getting to the bigs at a younger age. My worry for Jr. would be how his body holds up. It's certainly not a rule, but big guys tend to age poorly. I could see him surpass his dad based on a ton of early on success though.
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