And That

Guerra, Williams, Barnes, Woodruff, and Peralta can all be optioned, and injuries will happen. Neither Williams nor Barnes are good/consistent enough that they should be handed spots in the bullpen. This kind of reminds me of people not wanting to sign Charlie Morton a few years ago because we already had Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, and Taylor Jungmann. Lyles barely would basically have to be as good as he's been to this point in his career to be worth $3.5 million, and he has a lot of upside well past $3.5 million of value. I just think it was a mistake letting him go, and he went to another team in the division to boot.

No one is responding because there isn't an answer. Literally the post above yours.

Said it before but I think this was a decently sized mistake by the Brewers. Lyles has all the tools to be a very valuable pitcher and the Brewers could have retained him at a reasonable cost.

Brewers will operate two AZL teams in 2019! I actually had a (turned out to be timely) thread on this topic earlier today.

It barely gets more minutia-y than this, but 17yo DSLer Eduin Lugo is now being listed as a first baseman after spending his first pro summer listed as a catcher. He played 2 innings behind the dish. Someday when Lugo is an All Star first bagger for the Brewers, you all can look back at this post.

TL;DR: Good, even trade for Milwaukee. The Brewers’ predilection for weird deliveries continues on.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/45771/transaction-analysis-tanner-for-tanner-kelly-to-la-and-claudio-moves-north/ BPro likes the trade for the Brewers, or at least Kate Morrison really likes Alex Claudio. If he’s good enough for Kate, he’s good enough for me.

His arm is below average.

I am a little surprised that Olczak wasn't protected, but his upside is that of a solid reliever, not necessarily a high-leverage guy. He has an above average curve but his fastball isn't a plus pitch at his point and his command needs work. Solid reliever upside doesn't usually profile as something you'd spend a Rule 5 pick on.

It's also important to remember that Opening Day payroll is not necessarily the number the Brewers are looking at from a budget standpoint. They know there will be further payroll costs throughout the season, in the millions, even if they add no further outside players during the season. So if they start with a $110 million payroll, the number they are looking at internally might actually be closer to $115 million before the season even starts due to the fact they know players will need DL time, 40-man players get paid differently in MLB vs. in the minors, etc.

Jared Hughes?

One of the biggest minor league storylines in 2019 for me will be looking for progress, and more than just modest progress, from the organization's top hitting prospects. It's been a while since I've been wowed by increased output at the plate. Hiura's been good but most of the other guys are stuck in low batting average ruts which don't kill their value necessarily, but it does make it difficult to get excited about them. Kenny Graham, who has been the Brewers' minor league hitting coordinator for a few years now, needs to find a way to get more consistent contact out of his players, or he may not be long for his job.

According to Ken Rosenthal, Brewers are leaning towards non-tendering Schoop.

Garcia has played many actual games, it just so happens the details of those games are not generally available.

As sveumrules pointed out already, the goal in accumulating depth is not to produce ten Nick Franklins. The Brewers have quite a few core contributors who at one point or another would have been considered "depth" as prospects. The goal with depth is to develop players within that group to become regular MLB contributors. It stands to reason, the more/better depth you have, the better odds you have to produce a Travis Shaw or Taylor Williams.

Yah, when I refer to the farm system as having really good depth, I'm talking about relative to Brewers' history. I don't know a ton about most other farm systems so I have no way of knowing how the Brewers compare depth-wise to other teams. The depth the Brewers have presently is much better than the depth the Brewers have had in the past. I think this is due to a change in drafting philosophy and more investment in international signings.

Things that stood out to me from the FanGraphs piece: -Hiura's defense/arm strength is fine. They call him an All-Star second baseman. -They are much more bearish on Lutz's defense that I am. I think he's fine as a RF with average speed and doesn't take noticeably awkward paths to the ball. They give his arm a 60 - for me it's at least a 70. The profile actually reminds me a bit of Domingo Santana, with better defense. -For some reason, it hadn't occurred to me that Dubon was already 24.5. I mentally had him a year or two younger than that. They also gave him a lower defensive grade than I've seen/heard elsewhere. -There's way too much volatility in Feliciano's profile for me to call him the Brewers' 7th best prospect. He's not a catcher long-term and still has a long way to go with the bat. -They call Stokes' arm in LF "nearly unplayable" - it's a few notches better than Khris Davis' arm by my eye. Below average for sure, but I wouldn't toss around the term unplayable with it. -Some scouts want to move Erceg to the mound, apparently. They crapped all over his hitting profile. -Lun Zhao has a 70 curveball.

Bumgarner is likely to get a QO after the season, right? Is there a way to apply WAR to a future draft pick/yet-to-be-determined prospect? Curious how that might have and effect on the numbers. Going by Fangraphs, they'd value the comp pick between $1-8million (.1-.9 average WAR), unless the Brewers were able to nab one of the top guys in the class because he's slid down the draft. In that case it could end up being worth $20+ million. Intuitively, I'd say $8 million seems low and $20 million seems high. Probably somewhere in the middle. Saying all of that, the Giants are going to price the loss of the comp pick into their ask for Bumgarner. So while the Brewers might get $15 million of surplus value from the comp pick, the Giants are going to ask for an extra $15 million of surplus value on the front end because they won't get the comp pick. So really there's no net effect. At least at the time of the trade. The pick itself when made could obviously have all sorts of different value outcomes.

This is simply not true. His TAv in 2016 was .248, in 2017 was .264, and in 2018 was .282. TAv baseline is .260, so he's literally been an above average hitter 2 of his 3 seasons above A ball. wRC+ tells the same story, with marks of 87/103/126 in that same time frame. TAv and wRC+ are both adjusted for parks effects (TAv more so than wRC+), which wipes out the Colorado Springs hitters haven argument. It is actually possible for players to get better while playing in a bandbox. Additionally, Nottingham has progressed defensively to the point where he no longer needs his bat to carry him to the big leagues. He can and will provide value defensively.

Nice.

The Braves have said they're holding onto Camargo, and given Donaldson's injury history they'd be wise to do so. 5th infielders get a ton of playing time on any given team anyway. They could probably throw him in an outfield corner, too.

Nope. I have Roegner as a 30 OFP, at spot #134. Nestled between Alec Bettinger and Arbert Cipion.

Here's my top what turned out to be 113. The prospects are grouped by OFP, which is based on scouting reports and adjusted for risk level, age relative to league, defense, and a number of production metrics. I tried to stay out of the way of the data as much as possible so no one got any special adjustments - if I made a change to any of the formulas, the change was made globally. If I don't have a scouting report from an outside source and I haven't seen the player myself, the player got a max base OFP of 35. Statistical adjustments were made based on both current year and 3-year production timeframes. If you're unaware, OFP stands for Overall Future Potential and is more or less synonymous with FV (Future Value). It's a player's scouting grades condensed into one catch-all future potential grade. I would call a grade of anything less than 35 an organizational player, so players with OFPs of 30 and under are not included here. These OFP grades are fluid, though. Players move between 30, 35, and 40 pretty regularly. Let's go: [pre]----------65 OFP Players---------- 001. Keston Hiura, 2B, Biloxi ----------60 OFP Players---------- -none- ----------55 OFP Players---------- 002. Troy Stokes Jr., LF, Biloxi 003. Tristen Lutz, RF, Wisconsin 004. Mauricio Dubon, SS, San Antonio 005. Brice Turang, SS, Colorado Springs ----------50 OFP Players---------- 006. Corey Ray, CF, Biloxi 007. Lucas Erceg, 3B, Biloxi 008. Zack Brown, RHSP, Biloxi 009. Trent Grisham, OF, Biloxi ----------45 OFP Players---------- 010. Carlos Rodriguez, CF, AZL 011. Jacob Nottingham, C, San Antonio 012. Trey Supak, RHSP, Biloxi 013. Micah Bello, CF, AZL 014. Andres Melendez, C, AZL 015. Braden Webb, RHSP, Biloxi 016. Joe Gray, CF, AZL 017. Jake Gatewood, 1B, Biloxi 018. Marcos Diplan, RHSP, Biloxi 019. Aaron Ashby, LHSP, Wisconsin 020. Joey Matulovich, RHSP, Colorado Springs 021. Cody Ponce, RHSP, Biloxi 022. Tyrone Taylor, CF, San Antonio 023. Miguel Sanchez, RHRP, Biloxi 024. Adrian Houser, RHSP, San Antonio ----------40 OFP Players---------- 025. Max Lazar, RHSP, Colorado Springs 026. Tom Jankins, RHSP, Biloxi 027. Quintin Torres-Costa, LHRP, San Antonio 028. Larry Ernesto, OF, DSL 029. Eduarqui Fernandez, OF, DSL 030. Lun Zhao, RHSP, Colorado Springs 031. Nate Kirby, LHSP, Carolina 032. Pablo Abreu, CF, Colorado Springs 033. Cody Beckman, LHRP, Carolina 034. Payton Henry, C, Wisconsin 035. Logan Gillaspie, RHRP, Colorado Springs 036. Max McDowell, C, Biloxi 037. Ernesto Martinez, 1B, AZL 038. Je'Von Ward, OF, Colorado Springs 039. Caden Lemons, RHSP, Colorado Springs 040. Phil Bickford, RHRP, Carolina 041. Justin Jarvis, RHSP, AZL 042. David Fry, C, Wisconsin 043. Antonio Pinero, SS, Colorado Springs 044. Wes Wilson, INF, Biloxi 045. Clayton Andrews, LHRP, Wisconsin 046. Mario Feliciano, C, Carolina 047. J.T. Hintzen, RHSP, Wisconsin 048. Jon Olczak, RHRP, Biloxi 049. Tucker Neuhaus, INF, Carolina 050. Cam Robinson, RHSP, AZL 051. Devin Williams, RHSP, Carolina 052. Jose Sibrian, C, Colorado Springs 053. Eduardo Garcia, SS, DSL 054. Robbie Hitt, RHRP, Wisconsin 055. Gabriel Garcia, 3B/1B, Wisconsin 056. Nick Egnatuk, 3B, Colorado Springs 057. Eddie Silva, INF, Wisconsin 058. Jesus Lujano, OF, Colorado Springs 059. Dylan File, RHSP, Wisconsin 060. Edwin Sano, 2B, AZL 061. Chad McClanahan, 1B, Wisconsin 062. Korry Howell, SS, AZL 063. Brendan Murphy, LHSP, AZL ----------35 OFP Players---------- 064. Branlyn Jaraba, 3B, DSL 065. Michele Vassalotti, RHSP, Colorado Springs 066. Cooper Hummel, OF/C, Carolina 067. Nate Orf, INF, San Antonio 068. Franklin Hernandez, RHSP, Colorado Springs 069. Michael Mediavilla, LHRP, Colorado Springs 070. Erys Bautista, 1B, DSL 071. Carlos Herrera, RHSP, Wisconsin 072. Yeison Coca, INF, Colorado Springs 073. Aaron Familia, 3B/1B, AZL 074. Jake Hager, INF, San Antonio 075. Nattino Diplan, RHSP, Biloxi 076. Daniel Castillo, SS, DSL 077. Jayson Rose, RHSP, Wisconsin 078. Luis Aviles Jr., SS, Biloxi 079. Brady Schanuel, RHRP, AZL 080. Austin Rubick, RHRP, Colorado Springs 081. Rob Henry, OF, Carolina 082. Daniel Brown, LHRP, Carolina 083. Nate Griep, RHRP, Biloxi 084. Nash Walters, RHSP, AZL 085. Luke Barker, RHRP, Carolina 086. Aaron Wilkerson, RHSP, San Antonio 087. Francis Florentino, OF, AZL 088. Karlos Morales, LHSP, AZL 089. Robie Rojas, C, Carolina 090. Tristan Archer, RHRP, San Antonio 091. Alec Kenilvort, RHRP, Carolina 092. Pat McInerney, 1B, Carolina 093. Joantgel Segovia, OF, Carolina 094. Bowden Francis, RHSP, Carolina 095. Jesus Chirinos, C, DSL 096. Dallas Carroll, INF, Carolina 097. Alwinson Valdez, OF, DSL 098. Drew Rasmussen, RHRP, AZL 099. Nate Rodriguez, C, Carolina 100. Leoner Colina, RHSP, DSL 101. Wilfred Salaman, LHSP, Wisconsin 102. Brayan Salaya, RHSP, AZL 103. Santiago Elizondo, RHSP, DSL 104. Bubba Derby, RHSP, San Antonio 105. Conor Harber, RHSP, Biloxi 106. Oswel Leones, OF, DSL 107. Peter Strzelecki, RHRP, Colorado Springs 108. Victor Vargas, 2B, DSL 109. LG Castillo, OF, Colorado Springs 110. Wilber Diaz, RHSP, DSL 111. Tate Budnick, RHRP, Colorado Springs 112. Nic Pierre, OF, Wisconsin 113. Jose Alberro, LHRP, DSL[/pre]

Players can be placed on the 60-day DL beginning on the day that pitchers and catchers report for their team.

I believe all of this still applies. Pass if I have to give up anything of value, and I'm not even sure I'd even claim him.